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  1. #81
    What was the impact of the US blacklisting Huawei?

    The once #1 smart phone vendor by shipment (Apple was #1 by sale and #3 by shipment) in the world tumbled to #6. It shipped 33 million smartphones globally in the fourth quarter of 2020, a 41% year-on-year decline. It forced Huawei to sell off its budget Honor smartphone brand in November, and it is now looking at divesting its flagship Mate and P brand.

    (Note: Apple produced 77.6 million iPhones units in the fourth quarter of 2020, 69.8 million of which were iPhone 12 models. Apple is currently #1 in both shipment and sale. Ahead of Samsung at second place.)

    Two factors for the decline. Cutting Huawei off from Google’s Android operating system is not a big deal in China where Google services such a Gmail and search are blocked. But in international markets, it has been key to Huawei’s growth as consumers are used to these services.

    The other factor is that their 5G smart phones use 7- (only made in the US, Korea & Taiwan under US license) and 5-nanometer wavers (only made in Taiwan under US license). So now they are limited to only making 4G phones.

    The company has now diversified to less tech-intensive fields of providing technology to coal mining, pig farming and fish farming. It has now expanded its solar inverter (use 28-nanometer chips) and power module (use 90-nanometer chips) manufacturing and sale.

    This has shown the Chinese the limit of advancing their technology through IP theft. Just because you have access to the blue print, do not meant that you can build a house. Especially in tech where the usability cycle today is counted in 1 - 2 years. Taiwan just started commercial production of 3-nanometer wavers this year, and already they are planning to produce 2-nanometer wavers next year. Very short cycle. Meanwhile, China is still stuck making 14-nanometer wavers.

    What’s the difference between 14- and 3-nanometers chip? Huge. A 14-nanometer chip, which is used in dual-core mobile variant of the Intel Core i3/i5/i7, has a theoretical density of 17.185 million transistors per square millimetre. A 3-nanometer chip is over 100 trillion.

    The same thing that the US did to Huawei, it could do to every single Chinese companies that use 10-nanometer chips or better in its manufacturing process.
    Last edited by Rasulis; 2021-03-15 at 07:26 PM.

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    China's border disputes are not expansions. They are consolidations of what China considers Chinese soil. Those are IMMEDIATE border issues contained within hundreds of miles of the existing Chinese border. calling that expansionism is a great exaggeration if you compare it to Japan, European nations, Communism during the Cold War.

    I don't think you understand why people have children. Rest assured, if China ever stops the one child policy, they'll have a massive boomer wave coming. Here's a secret for you, the poor and stupid breed like rabbits. It's only the rich and educated that don't procreate. Guess what the percentage of the poor and stupid in the Chinese population is. You know, the one that had the cultural revolution killing educated people. Their demographic decline is not happening in our lifetime. Europe has a bigger problem in that it's an actual decline not policed by the Government.
    Fact is that the definition of China is pretty elastic if one looks trough history, particularly trough the very lens of Chinese nationalism. The ROC still has to maintain its claim over the entirety of Mongolia in order not to shatter the One China thing. Much of Vietnam has been part of China at various points of history, and most of China's other neighbors were tied to it by the tributary system at various points, at least in the mind of Beijing.

    I've delved enough in demography for 30 years and parenting for a decade to have a decent idea of why people would have children thank you. On your side, I'd suggest you keep yourself better informed, for the One Child Policy has ended in 2016, being replaced since then by a Two Child Policy which has failed to materialize into an uptick in birth number, which are continuing their downward trend.

    I won't comment on you cute cliche.

    Europe does have similar problems, but there are massive differences between countries and even within countries. Most of the South and Eastern European countries are indeed veered toward a similarly brutal demographic collapse. For Western Europe the picture is much more complex, as some countries do retain fertility levels that are almost sustainable, and drain important immigration flux, be it from their less prosperous European neighbors, the rest of Eurasia or the whole of Africa.
    "Learn to overcome the crass demands of flesh and bone, for they warp the matrix through which we perceive the world. Extend your awareness outwards, beyond the self of body, to embrace the self of group and the self of humanity. The goals of the group and the greater race are transcendent, and to embrace them is to achieve enlightenment."

    ~ Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang on Essays on Mind and Matter

  3. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang View Post
    Fact is that the definition of China is pretty elastic if one looks trough history, particularly trough the very lens of Chinese nationalism. The ROC still has to maintain its claim over the entirety of Mongolia in order not to shatter the One China thing. Much of Vietnam has been part of China at various points of history, and most of China's other neighbors were tied to it by the tributary system at various points, at least in the mind of Beijing.

    I've delved enough in demography for 30 years and parenting for a decade to have a decent idea of why people would have children thank you. On your side, I'd suggest you keep yourself better informed, for the One Child Policy has ended in 2016, being replaced since then by a Two Child Policy which has failed to materialize into an uptick in birth number, which are continuing their downward trend.

    I won't comment on you cute cliche.

    Europe does have similar problems, but there are massive differences between countries and even within countries. Most of the South and Eastern European countries are indeed veered toward a similarly brutal demographic collapse. For Western Europe the picture is much more complex, as some countries do retain fertility levels that are almost sustainable, and drain important immigration flux, be it from their less prosperous European neighbors, the rest of Eurasia or the whole of Africa.
    So you agree that the Chinese "expansion" is blown way out of proportion and it's merely border disputes. Glad to hear it. I'm sure that side note about birth rates gave you the willies, hope you enjoyed it.
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  4. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by Slant View Post
    So you agree that the Chinese "expansion" is blown way out of proportion and it's merely border disputes. Glad to hear it. I'm sure that side note about birth rates gave you the willies, hope you enjoyed it.
    Not.

    I guess the business between Russia and Ukraine are merely border disputes, like in the 30s the business between Germany, Czechoslavakia and Poland were just border disputes.

    While much less demonstrative than during Mao's era, the current attitude they display is to essentially creep whatever they can wherever they can until rebuffed.

    Hence the shifts of the line of actual control in the Himalayas that led up to the fighting with India, and now substantial military build up in that area, the massive artificial islands/military bases in the South China Sea, the government sanctioned policy of harassing neighboring countries fishing boats, pushing to be recognized as a "Near Arctic Nation" and the massive entries in all the needy neighboring countries with investments/vaccines being traded for sovereignty if not territory.

    While I fail to see what you are to gain by advocating complacency towards an ever more assertive Orwellian regime, unless you see it as desirable for the CCP setting the tune to which we'd dance in that new post 2020 era.

    I personally have ties in SEA, with Chinese roots to boot, and no, I am no fan of Beijing's assertiveness, especially if in the end game they'd evolve from the usual "You're Chinese, thus you have to work with us", to "You're Chinese, thus you belong to us".
    Last edited by Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang; 2021-03-17 at 04:37 PM.
    "Learn to overcome the crass demands of flesh and bone, for they warp the matrix through which we perceive the world. Extend your awareness outwards, beyond the self of body, to embrace the self of group and the self of humanity. The goals of the group and the greater race are transcendent, and to embrace them is to achieve enlightenment."

    ~ Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang on Essays on Mind and Matter

  5. #85
    I'm not talking about Russia or the Ukraine. I can't take you seriously if you can't read.
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  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang View Post
    Fact is that the definition of China is pretty elastic if one looks trough history, particularly trough the very lens of Chinese nationalism. The ROC still has to maintain its claim over the entirety of Mongolia in order not to shatter the One China thing. Much of Vietnam has been part of China at various points of history, and most of China's other neighbors were tied to it by the tributary system at various points, at least in the mind of Beijing.

    I've delved enough in demography for 30 years and parenting for a decade to have a decent idea of why people would have children thank you. On your side, I'd suggest you keep yourself better informed, for the One Child Policy has ended in 2016, being replaced since then by a Two Child Policy which has failed to materialize into an uptick in birth number, which are continuing their downward trend.

    I won't comment on you cute cliche.

    Europe does have similar problems, but there are massive differences between countries and even within countries. Most of the South and Eastern European countries are indeed veered toward a similarly brutal demographic collapse. For Western Europe the picture is much more complex, as some countries do retain fertility levels that are almost sustainable, and drain important immigration flux, be it from their less prosperous European neighbors, the rest of Eurasia or the whole of Africa.
    China is still suffering from the residual effect of the One Child Policy which can be summed in one sentence - "Not enough women of child bearing age." Out of a population of 1.4 billion, there are 34 million more men than women. When we narrow it down to child bearing age men and women, the ratio of men : women is a lot worse at almost 1.32 : 1.

    The issue is compounded because women now outnumbered men in Chinese universities (although men is ahead in graduate studies) and overall more successful economically (again men is still ahead at executive level). Turned out women marrying beneath their economic level is mostly a myth. They rather stay single. The opposite is also true, Chinese men do not like to marry women that are more successful than their spouse. That's how China ended of with 200 million child bearing age singles.

    Hence we have this "It is therefore unsurprising to read that the Chinese have taken to buying brides from Pakistan." I know. Disgusting.
    Last edited by Rasulis; 2021-03-17 at 05:31 PM.

  7. #87
    The Undying Themius's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dezerte View Post
    Not sure. I'd say... do what China is doing:
    1) extend our influence in Africa with projects and support
    2) more control over corporations to stop them from abusing cheap/slave labour, evade taxes and to stop them from supporting China.

    But honestly I don't know if this would work and perhaps it's too late.
    Extend our influence more into Africa is what has the continent as it is now... Africa shying away from western colonialist who fucked over the continent? Well guess what! The west will train the opposition militia who kills you and.... well you have no chocies.
    Last edited by Themius; 2021-03-21 at 07:55 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bodonius View Post
    Black people in america should be happy their ancestors where slaves so they could have a good live.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bodonius View Post
    Black women are racist. Im the one trying to make her[my wife] behave like white people and not say it out loud.
    Totally not racist

  8. #88
    Herald of the Titans TigTone's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    China is still suffering from the residual effect of the One Child Policy which can be summed in one sentence - "Not enough women of child bearing age." Out of a population of 1.4 billion, there are 34 million more men than women. When we narrow it down to child bearing age men and women, the ratio of men : women is a lot worse at almost 1.32 : 1.

    The issue is compounded because women now outnumbered men in Chinese universities (although men is ahead in graduate studies) and overall more successful economically (again men is still ahead at executive level). Turned out women marrying beneath their economic level is mostly a myth. They rather stay single. The opposite is also true, Chinese men do not like to marry women that are more successful than their spouse. That's how China ended of with 200 million child bearing age singles.

    Hence we have this "It is therefore unsurprising to read that the Chinese have taken to buying brides from Pakistan." I know. Disgusting.
    Instead of culturally improving and fighting sexism as a way to encourage women and men to make families they are going the full opposite way by embracing sexist and ignorant ideas of what a man or a women should be.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc...china-55926248

  9. #89
    Quote Originally Posted by Dezerte View Post
    Not sure. I'd say... do what China is doing:
    1) extend our influence in Africa with projects and support
    2) more control over corporations to stop them from abusing cheap/slave labour, evade taxes and to stop them from supporting China.

    But honestly I don't know if this would work and perhaps it's too late.
    The West cannot extend its influence in Africa any further China made them a much better deal and there's the whole history of it. China has learned from the West mistakes and are are now doing it the easy way. As for more control over corporations that's never going to happen not as long as they write checks for politicians.

  10. #90
    Legendary! Logwyn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    The West cannot extend its influence in Africa any further China made them a much better deal and there's the whole history of it. China has learned from the West mistakes and are are now doing it the easy way. As for more control over corporations that's never going to happen not as long as they write checks for politicians.
    One reason why I think the US should invest South into Central and South America. Build this hemisphere up while maintaining and building up the EU and India. Somehow build better relations with Russia. Some futuristic fantasy Union of the Americas would be very strong and powerful economically.

  11. #91
    Quote Originally Posted by Logwyn View Post
    One reason why I think the US should invest South into Central and South America. Build this hemisphere up while maintaining and building up the EU and India. Somehow build better relations with Russia. Some futuristic fantasy Union of the Americas would be very strong and powerful economically.
    Even if they try the leadership and populace is really turned off by the US and the West due to very painful distant and not so distant past. China is also offering a better deal not to mention they keep their word which is why they have turned us down several times while inviting China to build bases there.

  12. #92
    i think there is going to be a war with china at some point in the next 40 years. just from everything in learning in my own research.
    “Choose a job you love and you'll never have to work a day in your life” “Logic will get you from A to Z; Imagination will get you everywhere.”

  13. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by Naiattavain View Post
    i think there is going to be a war with china at some point in the next 40 years. just from everything in learning in my own research.
    There is absolutely no interest in China to have a war... here is a test... are the people in your research, also selling survival gear?
    Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
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  14. #94
    well the only way you can change negative behavior is war, which is out of the question due to Mutual assured destruction, they will be unaffected by any economic or "trade war" people who act like trumps trade war effected china at all are mislead, think about pre ww2 germany very similar circumstance, you can send them strongly worded condemnations but the only thing that would of moved them was troops in the ground...obviously you cant do that anymore sooo expanding our own influence via our allies, but when we do that its not very "america first" also to notice america first comittee was a pro german "anti war" activist group right before ww2. With nazi sympathies that were downplayed as just "opposing war"
    actually tinking aboutt allies maybe 1 good thing he did show we should continue is coercing europe to change their deals with russia and china, we need to make sure people are on our side and acting in our interests.

  15. #95
    The Undying Themius's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Logwyn View Post
    One reason why I think the US should invest South into Central and South America. Build this hemisphere up while maintaining and building up the EU and India. Somehow build better relations with Russia. Some futuristic fantasy Union of the Americas would be very strong and powerful economically.
    I don't want that.... i don't want the US investing and "building" Latin America as that would then come with strings the entire reason Latin America is mostly in the state it is now is because of the united states toppling leftist governments to make sure people friendly to the USA and their agenda were in power. Nothing good comes from that.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Draco-Onis View Post
    Even if they try the leadership and populace is really turned off by the US and the West due to very painful distant and not so distant past. China is also offering a better deal not to mention they keep their word which is why they have turned us down several times while inviting China to build bases there.
    What do you mean by distant and not so distant past? We'd have to "stop" for "not so distant" it's still actively done. Fuck, the CIA director was on fox news making straight jokes about regime changes when asked if the USA still does it. They could have fucking lied, but instead, they made jokes and had a big old laugh about regime changes.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bodonius View Post
    Black people in america should be happy their ancestors where slaves so they could have a good live.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bodonius View Post
    Black women are racist. Im the one trying to make her[my wife] behave like white people and not say it out loud.
    Totally not racist

  16. #96
    In regards to China doing whatever they want, here is another one from today:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56474847
    Huge Chinese 'fishing fleet' alarms Philippines
    The Philippines has called on China to withdraw more than 200 ships it accuses of encroaching upon its territorial waters in the South China Sea.

    Defence Minister Delfin Lorenzana said the Chinese ships were violating the Philippines' maritime rights.

    The Philippines says the fishing boats do not appear to be fishing and are crewed by China's maritime militia.
    P.S.
    After reading through the topic all I can say that way too many of you have basically already given up. Anyway, there is going to be a nice wakeup call to the West (and basically rest of the world as well) when China finally invades Taiwan and TSMC falls under their grasp, thus giving PRC control of world's semiconductor market. I do not think that enough people grasp the importance of this factor (or even understand it in the first place), nor do I feel that current ongoing projects about building fabs elsewhere in the world will have advanced far enough to reduce the dependance on Taiwan's production in this regard.
    Your dreams of uninvadable Taiwan being the David vs China's Goliath will not come to pass.

    Quote Originally Posted by arandomuser View Post
    well the only way you can change negative behavior is war, which is out of the question due to Mutual assured destruction
    There is no MAD scenario in USA vs China if we talk about nuclear exchange.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

  17. #97
    Banned Yadryonych's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    There is no MAD scenario in USA vs China if we talk about nuclear exchange.
    There is a scenario of assured destruction of valueable US assets such as Japan, Korea, Taiwan. And no, I don't think semiconductor market would fall under the China's grasp, since unless China is able to deploy and fully conquer within maybe an hour, every single one of these factories will be sabotaged and totally ruined beyond repair either by Taiwan itself or by USA

  18. #98
    as long as the west has the plague of anti education crowd as a major political player, all we can do is wait for China to fully establish as the lone super power and then work on our graveling

  19. #99
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    In regards to China doing whatever they want, here is another one from today:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56474847

    P.S.
    After reading through the topic all I can say that way too many of you have basically already given up. Anyway, there is going to be a nice wakeup call to the West (and basically rest of the world as well) when China finally invades Taiwan and TSMC falls under their grasp, thus giving PRC control of world's semiconductor market. I do not think that enough people grasp the importance of this factor (or even understand it in the first place), nor do I feel that current ongoing projects about building fabs elsewhere in the world will have advanced far enough to reduce the dependance on Taiwan's production in this regard.
    Your dreams of uninvadable Taiwan being the David vs China's Goliath will not come to pass.



    There is no MAD scenario in USA vs China if we talk about nuclear exchange.
    The Taiwan military or the US will blow up those fabs first rather than let them fall into the hands of the Chinese. There are always rumors, not sure if they are true, that those fabs are rigged with explosives in the event of just such circumstance.

    Keep in mind, although US companies have offshored a lot of semiconductor manufacturing, the US still controls the semiconductor manufacturing tools. The company that make EUV Lithography tools belong to a very exclusive club with one member – ASML. Yes it is a Dutch company. However, it uses US licensed technology and critical parts from 3 Silicon Valley companies. Without EUVL tools, absolutely no one in the world can build 28-nanometer fabs or better. That's why a single machine cost between 200 to 250 million. ASML can charge over $1,000 per hour for one of their repair technician and millions for replacement spare parts.
    Last edited by Rasulis; 2021-03-21 at 09:45 PM.

  20. #100
    The Insane PC2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Naiattavain View Post
    i think there is going to be a war with china at some point in the next 40 years. just from everything in learning in my own research.
    Why should I believe in such a gloomy prophecy? What is your method of prediction?
    Optimism! (HumanProgress.org)

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