An insight on Bitcoin

[jonnysensible]

what do we reckon then binance in insolvent?

[Feltima]

what do we reckon then binance in insolvent?

No, CZ is contemplating stepping down, and hiring someone to replace him. Binance is trying to desperately course correct now to please regulators. Governments are becoming proactive with regulation, so Binance is becoming proactive in compliance. Whether it will actually work remains to be seen.

[hellhamster]

Today is a huge day for the global economy. FED chairman Powell will announce whether they will raise interest rates or not. 2 scenarios.

Scenario 1: he raises rates (20% probability, probably the best action for the long term but extremely bad for the short/mid term)

Markets crash worldwide for days on end, going back to 2008 levels. Prolonged bear market. Multiple countries enter massive debt crisis a la Greece. Massive deflation, strengthening the dollar, causing huge unemployment and government spending will be cut to insane levels. International debt will be wiped and 10 years of heavy austerity will follow. As a Greek, you really don't want this. The great reset no-one but the very few are prepared for.

Scenario 2: he doesn't raise rates (80% probability, probably the best action for the short and mid term but the long term is looking extremely grim).

Everything just keeps going as it was and the head continues to be in the sand. This is a gradual change that will take years to manifest into actual hyperinflation. Savings will be worthless, bonds will be worthless, money in general will be worthless compared to assets. Debt will soar. Wages get obliterated compared to spending power. Government and big corporations become responsible for almost all the economic activity. No one will want to work. Supply chains face a huge crisis. Government is forced to continue the endless chain reaction of a massive zombie economy, pumping everything up with quantitative easing and money printers going BRRRRRR. Acceleration towards hyperinflation. The Fed's stance on the matter is Covid-19 is the cause, when that blows away, everything can go back to normal, but I remain skeptical for two reasons: 1. Covid-19 will never really go away but we can choose to ignore it. 2. Even if it does go away, who said that the damage hasn't been done after over 2 years of increasing money supply by the planet load? Will the FED keep pumping shit up forever? Fiscal crises worldwide and civil unrest will go rampant. The lesser of two evils for now, but I really don't want to think how the world will look like in 10 years time.

[Zan15]

Today is a huge day for the global economy. FED chairman Powell will announce whether they will raise interest rates or not. 2 scenarios.

Scenario 1: he raises rates (20% probability, probably the best action for the long term but extremely bad for the short/mid term)

Markets crash worldwide for days on end, going back to 2008 levels. Prolonged bear market. Multiple countries enter massive debt crisis a la Greece. Massive deflation, strengthening the dollar, causing huge unemployment and government spending will be cut to insane levels. International debt will be wiped and 10 years of heavy austerity will follow. As a Greek, you really don't want this. The great reset no-one but the very few are prepared for.

LOL how much do you think they are going to raise rates, to 15% or something overnight??
Even standard expected moves over the next 2 years would still put them 50-75% under normal level of historical interest rates.


as far as your other scenario, its even more ridiculous and people have been crying the same tune since the 80's

[Feltima]

LOL how much do you think they are going to raise rates, to 15% or something overnight??
Even standard expected moves over the next 2 years would still put them 50-75% under normal level of historical interest rates.


as far as your other scenario, its even more ridiculous and people have been crying the same tune since the 80's

Market psychology is a bitch. The FED raises rates and the markets will react violently, regardless of whether it was necessary or not.

[hellhamster]

LOL how much do you think they are going to raise rates, to 15% or something overnight??
Even standard expected moves over the next 2 years would still put them 50-75% under normal level of historical interest rates.


as far as your other scenario, its even more ridiculous and people have been crying the same tune since the 80's

You are severely underestimating the panic levels a rate increase can induce. Everyone who is worth their salt in trading is scared of it.

[Zan15]

You are severely underestimating the panic levels a rate increase can induce. Everyone who is worth their salt in trading is scared of it.

nah even a full point from where we are today would not even be a spec of a problem after the dust cleared on the inital dip. you'd have to have multiple, years long incremental increases to even put real fear into this market right now.

[jonnysensible]

nah even a full point from where we are today would not even be a spec of a problem after the dust cleared on the inital dip. you'd have to have multiple, years long incremental increases to even put real fear into this market right now.

zan the sky is falling ill trade all your fiat for these magic beans

[Sargrovar]

For me, this is all a dark forest ..

[Zan15]

zan the sky is falling ill trade all your fiat for these magic beans

I'll tell you based on a few things i am however thinking about sitting out Aug/Sept and playing the dip that I think is going to come.

but beans gives me horrible gas...

[hellhamster]

That was a great monthly close, technically discontinuing the downtrend that has been happening since May. I am still expecting a pullback to the mid 30k range, but the overall momentum shift upwards has been confirmed.

For all intents and purposes, the accumulation is over and the bull run is almost back on track, barring any exceptionally bad news. Technically, it can still be a dead cat bounce, but a bunch of indicators are flashing green after months of being red. Next target within the next few weeks is crossing the 45-48k resistance.

[Grimbold21]

I need to figure out what whales moving considerable amounts of assets means...

https://dailyhodl.com/2021/08/01/cry...th-is-heading/

[hellhamster]

My calls have been correct so far, but I'm now smelling a bull trap if bitcoin fails to break through 45k-48k like I mentioned in my previous post. One pullback has already happened, but I'm now expecting another. The 45k resistance is pretty huge, as it hits the 200 day moving average, which is traditionally the line between a bull and a bear run. Failure to close above it will put seller pressure on.

The last 2 weeks have been insane, bitcoin has been on a goddamn run, therefore it is due a very big retracement. I won't be surprised if it hits the spring low in the coming weeks one more time before blasting high. The lower it hits, the higher it will swing. I don't think it will hit the 32k region, but a mid to high 30k swing is very probable.

The most important bitcoin bottom indicator, the hash ribbon, will be flashing blue later today. It signifies miner capitulation, which means that the cost of mining is higher than the rewards. This essentially means that the macro low has already been established very recently. Bear in mind that this indicator has been correct 11 times out of 12 in the last decade and is the strongest buy signal that bitcoin has.

We have broken above the accumulation range, every long term indicator is flashing green, but that is all technical munbo jumbo. The real reason that I think that the bull run has been resumed is macroeconomical, and that is the saturation of the rest of the markets. Cryptocurrency is the only market right now sitting at historical value price, everything else is at all time highs.

[jonnysensible]

My calls have been correct so far, but I'm now smelling a bull trap if bitcoin fails to break through 45k-48k like I mentioned in my previous post. One pullback has already happened, but I'm now expecting another. The 45k resistance is pretty huge, as it hits the 200 day moving average, which is traditionally the line between a bull and a bear run. Failure to close above it will put seller pressure on.

The last 2 weeks have been insane, bitcoin has been on a goddamn run, therefore it is due a very big retracement. I won't be surprised if it hits the spring low in the coming weeks one more time before blasting high. The lower it hits, the higher it will swing. I don't think it will hit the 32k region, but a mid to high 30k swing is very probable.

The most important bitcoin bottom indicator, the hash ribbon, will be flashing blue later today. It signifies miner capitulation, which means that the cost of mining is higher than the rewards. This essentially means that the macro low has already been established very recently. Bear in mind that this indicator has been correct 11 times out of 12 in the last decade and is the strongest buy signal that bitcoin has.

We have broken above the accumulation range, every long term indicator is flashing green, but that is all technical munbo jumbo. The real reason that I think that the bull run has been resumed is macroeconomical, and that is the saturation of the rest of the markets. Cryptocurrency is the only market right now sitting at historical value price, everything else is at all time highs.

isnt it as simple as tether printer goes brrrrrrrrrrrr

[Grimbold21]

Wanted to get some more Solana and Polygon, but the market is swinging up...

[Zan15]

My calls have been correct so far, SNIP.

ummm...oh never mind not worth the trouble. Yuck

[hellhamster]

ummm...oh never mind not worth the trouble. Yuck

Show me an instance I wasn't correct lol.

[jonnysensible]

Show me an instance I wasn't correct lol.

if you say market might go up, market might go down and market might stay the same you arent predicting anything you are listing all possibilities.

hopefully this us legislation goes through soon.

[Ursus]

Hackers stole $600 million worth of cryptocurrency:

https://twitter.com/PolyNetwork2/sta...23153009803267

Dear Hacker,

We are the Poly Network team.

We want to establish communication with you and urge you to return the hacked assets.

The amount of money you hacked is the biggest one in the defi history. Law enforcement in any country will regard this as a major economic crime and you will be pursued. It is very unwise for you to do any further transactions. The money you stole are from tens of thousands of crypto community members, hence the people.

You should talk to us to work out a solution.


Poly Network Team

LOL

[hellhamster]

if you say market might go up, market might go down and market might stay the same you arent predicting anything you are listing all possibilities.

hopefully this us legislation goes through soon.

That's how it works, you make predictions based on data. It can always go in any direction, the only thing that changes is probability.

Price do go up though for now (short-mid term target is 48.5k). It might do go down, but it's 80% certain it do go up. Of course, some whale or a group of whales might know this and short the ever living shit out of it, so a long liquiditation is still technically in play. In that case, it do go down. Obviously these whales might get liquidated doing so by other, more mega whales who are long.



Yes the legislation must happen as the first step of legitimization, finally.