An insight on Bitcoin

[Edge-]

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...ion-on-bitcoin

Welp, it's proving not to be a great investment for "long-term stability" for Nexon, who just chalked up their latest quarterly losses to the $100M in BTC they purchased a while back losing $40M in value.

I'm not sure why they'd ever think it was a great investment for "long-term stability", that's what fuckin low-yield bonds are for if that's what you care about. I don't get what companies think they're actually getting out of these kinds of moves. Sure it generates some headlines and the crypto community goes nuts for a bit, but afterwards there seems to be no real payoff for them unless the price goes up and they want to dump it. Sitting on it as an asset is a losing proposition unless they're willing to sit on it for 5-10 years and deal with the volatility in the hopes that the value keeps going up.

[Zan15]

Show me an instance I wasn't correct lol.

7/27 - However, yesterday's stop loss hunt was that insane that the risk-reward for sellers and shorters multiplied. The increase in price was that big that multiple resistance levels were breached and became support, hence my correct call that the new range would start at 36.5kish and end at 40k. The most logical trade would be a short at 40k and a long at 36.5k. The short liquidation that destroyed tens of thousands of bears yesterday stopped new shorts and provided liquidity for the next leg up, which is bad news for bears who would need to risk a lot to break down the low of the range. Don't get me wrong, nothing is certain and we can still break down to like 33.5, but the risk is higher.

8/1- That was a great monthly close, technically discontinuing the downtrend that has been happening since May. I am still expecting a pullback to the mid 30k range, but the overall momentum shift upwards has been confirmed.


Based on your call to short at 40k people would have got crushed.

Then you called for a pull back on 8/1, which it was 40-42k. It rushed forward to 46k.

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if you say market might go up, market might go down and market might stay the same you arent predicting anything you are listing all possibilities.

hopefully this us legislation goes through soon.

He is kind of covering all bases on a lot of his "calls" that is true.

If maybe then possible....

[hellhamster]

7/27 - However, yesterday's stop loss hunt was that insane that the risk-reward for sellers and shorters multiplied. The increase in price was that big that multiple resistance levels were breached and became support, hence my correct call that the new range would start at 36.5kish and end at 40k. The most logical trade would be a short at 40k and a long at 36.5k. The short liquidation that destroyed tens of thousands of bears yesterday stopped new shorts and provided liquidity for the next leg up, which is bad news for bears who would need to risk a lot to break down the low of the range. Don't get me wrong, nothing is certain and we can still break down to like 33.5, but the risk is higher.

8/1- That was a great monthly close, technically discontinuing the downtrend that has been happening since May. I am still expecting a pullback to the mid 30k range, but the overall momentum shift upwards has been confirmed.


Based on your call to short at 40k people would have got crushed.

Then you called for a pull back on 8/1, which it was 40-42k. It rushed forward to 46k.

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He is kind of covering all bases on a lot of his "calls" that is true.

If maybe then possible....

"Based on your call to short at 40k people would have got crushed."

Are you trolling me? I called the short at 40K exactly, I even called the target to the fucking dollar cent. Are you looking at daily candles? Because range trading is never done on daily candles. If you do that, well...



Range trading between the 2 extremes, finally dropping down again before swinging up.



"Then you called for a pull back on 8/1, which it was 40-42k. It rushed forward to 46k."

edit: I actually did call it lol, this guy was either lying or has no clue how to read a chart. See post below.

"He is kind of covering all bases on a lot of his "calls" that is true."

Everything is based on probabilities, if you don't understand that, you shouldn't try to belittle other people on things you know nothing about.

The most successful traders in the world are wrong more than 20% of the time, the only thing I was truly wrong about was the May crash.

The Wyckoff accumulation pattern, the time frame of the accumulation, the exact ranges and targets were all hit perfectly. I also predicted we would see a Three Peaks and a Domed House pattern on bitcoin months in advance. Well, it's currently unfolding. If you misunderstand what I'm saying, you can always ask for a clarification. Don't try to belittle me, don't be that insecure guy who always finds things to complain about others.

[Zan15]

"Based on your call to short at 40k people would have got crushed."

Are you trolling me? I called the short at 40K exactly, I even called the target to the fucking dollar cent. Are you looking at daily candles? Because range trading is never done on daily candles. If you do that, well...



Range trading between the 2 extremes, finally dropping down again before swinging up.



"Then you called for a pull back on 8/1, which it was 40-42k. It rushed forward to 46k."

The 70% probability trade would be to expect a pullback, however I also called the momentum shift changing that could delay the pullback or prevent it altogether. That would mean that shorting would be a risky trade, translated specially for you.

"He is kind of covering all bases on a lot of his "calls" that is true."

Everything is based on probabilities, if you don't understand that, you shouldn't try to belittle other people on things you know nothing about.

The most successful traders in the world are wrong more than 20% of the time, the only thing I was truly wrong was the May crash.

The Wyckoff accumulation pattern, the time frame of the accumulation, the exact ranges and targets were all hit perfectly. I also predicted we would see a Three Peaks and a Domed House pattern on bitcoin months in advance. Well, it's currently unfolding. If you misunderstand what I'm saying, you can always ask for a clarification. Don't try to belittle me, don't be that insecure guy who always finds things to complain about others.

it hit 40k on 7/28 so based on your call it would have been to short it, right?

Your target was 36.5k for long so i am assuming you expected to short it to at least 36.5k which it never hit. Looks to have hit 38 ish a few days after that then its spiked up destroying that short position quite quickly.


Also your call on long position would have never hit, thus missing the run up since you were looking for 36.5k as an entry point.

[hellhamster]

it hit 40k on 7/28 so based on your call it would have been to short it, right?

Your target was 36.5k for long so i am assuming you expected to short it to at least 36.5k which it never hit. Looks to have hit 38 ish a few days after that then its spiked up destroying that short position quite quickly.


Also your call on long position would have never hit, thus missing the run up since you were looking for 36.5k as an entry point.

I'll try to explain how it works, this is a nice learning moment.

What you're saying happened a few days later on the 30th. The 40k short and 36.5k long were based on support and resistance levels. What happened on the 30th was a bounce on the 38k level. At the moment a trader sees the bounce, he would have closed the short instead of hoping it would ride all the way to 36.5k, still in good profits. The 38k level was a much smaller support level based on buying pressure from a few days ago, as well as resistance flipping into support. A range trader, once seeing the bounce at that level, would have closed the short and immediately gone into a long, that was insanely profitable made possible by extreme buying volume. Once he sees that buying volume, he just lets it ride for extra profit.

[Zan15]

I'll try to explain how it works, this is a nice learning moment.

What you're saying happened a few days later on the 30th. The 40k short and 36.5k long were based on support and resistance levels. What happened on the 30th was a bounce on the 38k level. At the moment a trader sees the bounce, he would have closed the short instead of hoping it would ride all the way to 36.5k, still in good profits. The 38k level was a much smaller support level based on buying pressure from a few days ago, as well as resistance flipping into support. A range trader, once seeing the bounce at that level, would have closed the short and immediately gone into a long, that was insanely profitable made possible by extreme buying volume. Once he sees that buying volume, he just lets it ride for extra profit.

So the learning moment is hindsight now that you see it never hit 36.5? why would anyone close the short after you said the target was 36.5 and claimed to be spot on.


"well spot if....if....."


So your prediction would have been right if it had that "disclaimer" in it. Instead it wasn't.

[hellhamster]

So the learning moment is hindsight now that you see it never hit 36.5? why would anyone close the short after you said the target was 36.5 and claimed to be spot on.


"well spot if....if....."


So your prediction would have been right if it had that "disclaimer" in it. Instead it wasn't.

Sigh, it seems you are not understanding anything. I'll try to explain, AGAIN:

You open a short when you hit a certain high point, ie resistance, for the highest possible probability trade. You open a long when you hit a certain low point, ie support, for the highest possible probability trade. Those positions were on 27/8, at 40k and 36.5 respectively. You can open positions at other price points, but those were the highest profitability, as well as safest trades. If these prices are hit, perfect, that is an easy, and very profitable trade, probability wise. If it doesn't, you can either still trade higher risk price points, or just stay on the sidelines and do nothing and wait for a better trade. You eventually close your short or long, once either a specific target is met, or you close it prematurely and still be in profits.

What you're saying happened several days later. If you decide to range trade based on information that is days old, maybe this hobby or profession isn't for you.

Also, a trader knows how to close positions, which is what happens 99% of the time. If you seriously think every single price target is hit every time, then rinse and repeat 15 times per day instead of most of the time, then you really have no clue what you're doing.

[Zan15]

Sigh, it seems you are not understanding anything. I'll try to explain, AGAIN:

You open a short when you hit a certain high point, ie resistance, for the highest possible probability trade. You open a long when you hit a certain low point, ie support, for the highest possible probability trade. Those positions were on 27/8, at 40k and 36.5 respectively. You can open positions at other price points, but those were the highest profitability, as well as safest trades. If these prices are hit, perfect, that is an easy, and very profitable trade, probability wise. If it doesn't, you can either still trade higher risk price points, or just stay on the sidelines and do nothing and wait for a better trade. You eventually close your short or long, once either a specific target is met, or you close it prematurely and still be in profits.

What you're saying happened several days later. If you decide to range trade based on information that is days old, maybe this hobby or profession isn't for you.

Also, a trader knows how to close positions, which is what happens 99% of the time. If you seriously think every single price target is hit every time, then rinse and repeat 15 times per day instead of most of the time, then you really have no clue what you're doing.

sigh told you it wasn't worth it.

so saying X and claiming its "right" is "right" because you move the goalpost because you/other amazing traders knew better after your 36.5k call that it was wrong?

i mean you are basically saying that your call was wrong but you adjusted because you and others are great traders....but then didn't bother to post that change for the rest of the world.

If traders were so smart then why was their crushing losses on this run up? If they all knew.....hmmmm

[hellhamster]

Based on your call to short at 40k people would have got crushed.

Then you called for a pull back on 8/1, which it was 40-42k. It rushed forward to 46k.

Also I DID predict the pullback, which was such a boring prediction that I completely forgot about it and didn't even bother to check, assuming you weren't lying. I thought you meant the one after the latest pump which is still in play btw, assuming bitcoin loses momentum.

Guess what, I checked and you were wrong again. Mid to high 30k was my prediction as I recall?



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sigh told you it wasn't worth it.

so saying X and claiming its "right" is "right" because you move the goalpost because you/other amazing traders knew better after your 36.5k call that it was wrong?

i mean you are basically saying that your call was wrong but you adjusted because you and others are great traders....but then didn't bother to post that change for the rest of the world.

If traders were so smart then why was their crushing losses on this run up? If they all knew.....hmmmm

Dude, stop embarassing yourself. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about.

[Zan15]

Also I DID predict the pullback, which was such a boring prediction that I completely forgot about it and didn't even bother to check, assuming you weren't lying. I thought you meant the one after the latest pump.

Guess what, I checked and you were wrong again.



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Dude, stop embarassing yourself. You clearly have no idea what you are talking about.

So if i say you should short Citibank down to 40 then come back a week later when it hit 49 and claim i was right because any good trader would have noticed X and got out at 49 before it spiked back up to 80??!!!!


You posted on 8/1 for a pullback and didn't post again till 8/8.
Didn't know 37-37.5 was mid 30k range but i will give you the benefit of the doubt but no where for 8 days did you call for it to spike back up so your prediction was to ride it down but had no targeted buy recommendation at "mid 30k range"


its funny how you said

That was a great monthly close, technically discontinuing the downtrend that has been happening since May. I am still expecting a pullback to the mid 30k range, but the overall momentum shift upwards has been confirmed.

For all intents and purposes, the accumulation is over and the bull run is almost back on track, barring any exceptionally bad news. Technically, it can still be a dead cat bounce, but a bunch of indicators are flashing green after months of being red. Next target within the next few weeks is crossing the 45-48k resistance.

So you called for a pullback, but bull run is back on track, barring any bad news, can be a dead cat bounce and next target being 45-48.

Calling all sides of the dice, maybe?

[hellhamster]

So if i say you should short Citibank down to 40 then come back a week later when it hit 49 and claim i was right because any good trader would have noticed X and got out at 49 before it spiked back up to 80??!!!!


You posted on 8/1 for a pullback and didn't post again till 8/8.
Didn't know 37-37.5 was mid 30k range but i will give you the benefit of the doubt but no where for 8 days did you call for it to spike back up so your prediction was to ride it down but had no targeted buy recommendation at "mid 30k range"


its funny how you said



So you called for a pullback, but bull run is back on track, barring any bad news, can be a dead cat bounce and next target being 45-48.

Calling all sides of the dice, maybe?

Please, just stop, I'm begging you. You are really making a fool of yourself.

You are a complete novice, evidenced by your lack of understanding how shorts and longs work, which is not a big deal. There's no need to shout it from the rooftops though. I think it's my mistake that I'm being too technical.

I will try to translate what I posted word for word, assuming you have zero inkling of understanding how any of this works, which is pretty obvious at this point (again, not a problem, I can only help):

That was a great monthly close, technically discontinuing the downtrend that has been happening since May.

Translation:

Bitcoin fucking PUMPED to a point that people are afraid to short (sell) anymore, this means that people are more prone to long (buy). This also means that the mini bear run (price goes down) aka Wyckoff accumulation phase (this thing here: https://school.stockcharts.com/doku....wyckoff_method ) is on its last legs. TLDR on Wyckoff pattern: it's a price pattern that happens during a price manipulation to keep the price between certain levels (for bitcoin it was 29k-41.5k) for several months, for big players to load up before the next leg up. It's part of a larger pattern called the Three Peaks and a Domed House, which I linked earlier (and several months ago).

I am still expecting a pullback to the mid 30k range, but the overall momentum shift upwards has been confirmed.

Translation:

Bitcoin will probably correct for a bit and go to the mid 30k range (37k is still technically mid 30k, I donno how terrible you are at math), but it pumped so fucking hard that people are afraid to sell, which means that the correction might not even happen (it did).

For all intents and purposes, the accumulation is over and the bull run is almost back on track, barring any exceptionally bad news. Technically, it can still be a dead cat bounce, but a bunch of indicators are flashing green after months of being red. Next target within the next few weeks is crossing the 45-48k resistance.

Translation:

There is evidence of the Wyckoff pattern coming at an end and the continuation of the steady increase in price over larger time frames is resuming (with the occassional short term hiccups that are healthy for the long term), unless some black swan event (something completely random, ie the sun's gamma radiation outburst destroying all the bitcoin farms) triggers and we are back at that range again (30k-41.5k). Obviously that didn't happen. The price is still being manipulated, which means it can go literally any direction, but I don't see it going anywhere but steadily up because it's technically less risky to buy than to sell and buy back cheaper later at this point. There is a wall of sell orders at the 45k-48k range (it's not a definitive number, it's a range), bitcoin will have to fight through that if it wants to not drop down hard again. The price goes down whenever the asset in question fails to fight through a wall of sell orders, because buyers are exausted.

I hope I made it clearer.

[Zan15]

Bitcoin will probably correct for a bit and go to the mid 30k range (37k is still technically mid 30k, I donno how terrible you are at math), but it pumped so fucking hard that people are afraid to sell, which means that the correction might not even happen (it did).
.

Well i see the low from 8/1-current as 37,508 so based on math that is the upper 30k range if you follow math rounding rules. Of course i don't subscribe to full detail charts so that is from "simp" 1m interval charts so it could have maybe gone below 37.5.....


Also technically, if you want to play "how terrible you are at math"
"The midrange is the average of the largest and smallest number." so 30-39,999 the average would be 35k and would be considered mid 30k, not 2.5k-ish higher than midrange.


Also who would be embarrassed because of a rando anon post, take it easy bropal its just a gaming forum pointing out that you have a way of covering both sides in order to never really be wrong.

[hellhamster]

Well i see the low from 8/1-current as 37,508 so based on math that is the upper 30k range if you follow math rounding rules. Of course i don't subscribe to full detail charts so that is from "simp" 1m interval charts so it could have maybe gone below 37.5.....


Also technically, if you want to play "how terrible you are at math"
"The midrange is the average of the largest and smallest number." so 30-39,999 the average would be 35k and would be considered mid 30k, not 2.5k-ish higher than midrange.


Also who would be embarrassed because of a rando anon post, take it easy bropal its just a gaming forum pointing out that you have a way of covering both sides in order to never really be wrong.

You do understand what a range means, right?

[Strawberry]

I haven't been following crypto lately. BTC had nearly 70% dominance earlier this year. Just 4 months ago it was at 60%. Now it's at 46%.
Ethereum got nice gains, about 50-60%, from 12% to 19%, but which other altcoins have been pumped?

[Grimbold21]

It looks like today BTC ain't going over this 45k mark, with a small dip happening right now.

[hellhamster]

It looks like today BTC ain't going over this 45k mark, with a small dip happening right now.

It's still early to tell, but it looks like a dip that will last days and will likely get to 42k or even 40k. I hope it does, the correction is necessary and long awaited. If it bounces off at 44k before blasting up again, I'm gonna be slightly more bearish mid-long term because the long positions opening there will be higher risk.

Bitcoin hitting 38k is the absolute best scenario for the long term, the longs that will open there will be astronomical, but I don't really see it happening.

[Grimbold21]

It's still early to tell, but it looks like a dip that will last days and will likely get to 42k or even 40k. I hope it does, the correction is necessary and long awaited. If it bounces off at 44k before blasting up again, I'm gonna be slightly more bearish mid-long term because the long positions opening there will be higher risk.

Bitcoin hitting 38k is the absolute best scenario for the long term, the longs that will open there will be astronomical, but I don't really see it happening.

I dunno, for me dipping means buying cheaper, that's all. I'm looking to get more SOL and MATIC

[Zan15]

You do understand what a range means, right?

You are the one who wanted to get technical and get all insulting about math. so you want to be literal then lets get literal.

just as you technically try to cover both sides of a prediction and then move the goalpost after the fact to claim success.

You've been very good at predicting a lot of it, but not perfect or spot on....unless of course they made additional moves/actions.

So gloat in the fact that you have been very good and look to improve on your predictions, i have faith in you!

[hellhamster]

You are the one who wanted to get technical and get all insulting about math. so you want to be literal then lets get literal.

just as you technically try to cover both sides of a prediction and then move the goalpost after the fact to claim success.

You've been very good at predicting a lot of it, but not perfect or spot on....unless of course they made additional moves/actions.

So gloat in the fact that you have been very good and look to improve on your predictions, i have faith in you!

I'm sorry if I've been insulting, but I'm constantly attacked here, mostly by your ugly sarcastic comments, when I'm just pointing out the different scenarios that can play out based on what I see in the charts. I don't know if you are genuine or sarcastic right now but if you are being sarcastic, I really hope you don't do the same in real life, that's all I'm gonna say.

You say I'm moving goalposts after the fact, I've never done that. I'm maybe elaborating on what happened exactly, but each call has been genuine, if maybe a bit hard to understand for novices.

The way this reading the charts thing works, every time something happens, there are different scenarios unfolding with a specific probabilistic variance. This means that there is a bigger chance for x happening , but it doesn't exclude - x from happening. I'm just giving out the scenarios and highest probability plays, but I also point out the other scenarios at play.

This is obviously extremely hard to do well, as it requires years of experience reading pieces of line going up and down. I've been doing it for 8 months. Add the fact that the crypto market is more volatile than the others, as well as being manipulated by big players that move the market on their own, and you can understand maybe that this thing is not easy.

If it were easy, I would be a trillionaire.

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Aaaand it's blasting again, which is not good because the bounce came high at 44k.
It only looks good because the price goes up but there's a lot more risk involved. We all know what happens with overlevereged positions.

[Feltima]

I'm sorry if I've been insulting, but I'm constantly attacked here, mostly by your ugly sarcastic comments, when I'm just pointing out the different scenarios that can play out based on what I see in the charts. I don't know if you are genuine or sarcastic right now but if you are being sarcastic, I really hope you don't do the same in real life, that's all I'm gonna say.

You say I'm moving goalposts after the fact, I've never done that. I'm maybe elaborating on what happened exactly, but each call has been genuine, if maybe a bit hard to understand for novices.

The way this reading the charts thing works, every time something happens, there are different scenarios unfolding with a specific probabilistic variance. This means that there is a bigger chance for x happening , but it doesn't exclude - x from happening. I'm just giving out the scenarios and highest probability plays, but I also point out the other scenarios at play.

This is obviously extremely hard to do well, as it requires years of experience reading pieces of line going up and down. I've been doing it for 8 months. Add the fact that the crypto market is more volatile than the others, as well as being manipulated by big players that move the market on their own, and you can understand maybe that this thing is not easy.

If it were easy, I would be a trillionaire.

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Aaaand it's blasting again, which is not good because the bounce came high at 44k.
It only looks good because the price goes up but there's a lot more risk involved. We all know what happens with overlevereged positions.

Look at the alt market cap. Alt season is about to begin. The big ones like ETH, XRP, ADA, etc are looking extremely bullish against BTC. I think we're about to see some irrational numbers. It's crypto doing it's wild 2017 shit again, prepare for ~50% daily face-melting pumps.

People who complain about TA not being perfectly precise, are the same people who complain about the weather not matching the forecast from the top of the week.