I think the subtitle of this thread should be, "Another example of how confirmation bias makes people think the world is out to get them."
As an exercise in futility - I went to RANDOM.ORG and generated 10 sets of 20 random numbers between 1 and 9.
89583336671918669418
19487727726575316548
12423276527719291664
15564437378452589122
77445861357144522235
57963734889675368295
14341446182317552137
36888423458289728364
57716666466188287115
55342892687581743568
So 1 of these players would be screaming 'non random' at their bad luck of 6666466.
Of course - there are WAY more than 10 players, and more than 9 items to pick from - but the point remains.
Due to COVID-19, Germany is running out of sausages and cheese.
The government considers this to be the Wurst Käse scenario
On the opposite side of things, Blizz has openly stated that there is not equal weighting for loot. For example, weapon and trinkets have a much lower chance to drop than other pieces of loot in general, and it's by design as Blizz has stated in the past that they want certain items dropping (specifically trinkets and weapons) to be more exciting. I would not be surprised if this extends to the weekly Vault at all.
Now there are other forms of influence on the weekly Vault outcomes that could alter how RNG the loot you get actually is. One that I've seen debated is if doing certain M+ dungeons will weight items from that dungeon in your favor. From keeping track of my loot and dungeons I've done over this season across multiple characters, there may be some truth to this. Now it's not guaranteed by a long shot, but if I do ten runs of one specific M+ dungeon, it averages out to almost 2 pieces of loot in my Vault are from that one dungeon I ran. A few times I got all 3 pieces from the dungeon, usually two, almost guaranteed one, and rarely 0 in my Vault. In general, the weighting of getting 1-2 pieces from the one dungeon I ran was way higher than what the random chance would be, but the only way to be certain is if Blizz actually came out and said it.
Another aspect of discussion if there's any influence on whether you get the exact same item every week, which should be much rarer than getting the same slot (not necessarily the same item though). In conjunction to the data I gathered above, I did get repeat items from M+, sometimes 3 weeks in a row. RNG is RNG, but if running a dungeon influences the loot table to some degree in the weekly Vault, doing the same dungeon frequently should increase the chance of getting the same item multiple times versus complete randomness. I'd be curious if people who have experiences streaks of being offered the same item multiple times in a row were actually running the same dungeon(s) frequently, as that's not an uncommon practice (who wouldn't just spam Mists/Halls keys to get their weekly done? ) .
Bottom line is we'll never know unless Blizz tells us. Back in Legion, most people thought that their luck was bad, RNG was just RNG, etc. when it came to getting Legendary items to drop... until Blizz admitted there was a 4 Legendary soft-cap (I think Method asked them about it, don't recall, been a while). The inherent issue with the player actually knowing if something is working right or not is that we don't know what to expect, as it's very hard to prove a system is bugged when you don't know exactly how it's supposed to work. When it comes to the weekly Vault, we don't know what the initial conditions are for what loot we are offered beyond "doing X dungeons gives you Y choices" and that you cannot be offered the exact same item twice in the same Vault week.
“Society is endangered not by the great profligacy of a few, but by the laxity of morals amongst all.”
“It's not an endlessly expanding list of rights — the 'right' to education, the 'right' to health care, the 'right' to food and housing. That's not freedom, that's dependency. Those aren't rights, those are the rations of slavery — hay and a barn for human cattle.”
― Alexis de Tocqueville
The problem here isn't a specific roll of just "1,2,3,4,5,6". Entire different slots are also "4,1,2,3..." "2,1,3,4..." etc accepted. So it's different chance for entirely different slots and all same as Kuntantee wrote. And math is just as he wrote it.
As he said.. Could be less bold of the conclusions.
Last edited by kukkamies; 2021-05-07 at 05:36 AM.
It isn't exactly... flawed. It is working as an RNG works... and that in itself is the issue. While RNG does imply randomness and equal chances, there still is a very good likelyhood you will stumble into that group of people who will get the same results frequently. Thats just how that sometimes works. Some results even in an RNG have a higher likelyhood... Besides that a true RNG doesnt exist, as an RNG is always a number of calculations from different, existing values, often in the past depending on GPU time and clocking.
And thats why i call developers like Blizzard lazy who evidently only focus on RNG and do not give it a controlling entity. Did a player get Bracers the week before? Was it the only item? Did they PICK said Bracers? All such little processes would have to do is shifting the possibilities to get those again one or two percent to the right or left and it would probably fix the issue that more people have than should ever be the case. However, Blizzard did not do that. Sure, i dont KNOW if they did not, but if they did this would happen not half as often as it does... and they would not make such a big fuzz about it when they for once got off their asses to implement a fallback for players who keep having bad luck with getting loot at all, as they did a whole twice in the past...
So its not like its not RNG. Its just a lazy, unmoderated type most likely.
If you are offended by something i said, im probably at least 45% sorry about it and there is a 3% Chance it was not on purpose!
Victim to Blizzard-Marketing since 2004
I love they retards who keep saying random is random, but have no idea how probability works.
In short: there's no way the rewards are random. It's just Blizz feeding us bs.
I know how probability works, and yes - random is random.
The problem is that people don't fathom how randomness interacts with large sample sizes.
They assume that one person describing a rare event isn't random because they forget that there has been millions of experiments generating the output.
People need to head to random.org and check out how random works.
I hope that helps with your error.
Due to COVID-19, Germany is running out of sausages and cheese.
The government considers this to be the Wurst Käse scenario
You're both just looking at the situation wrong. If you and a friend both roll dice, and yours come up 1,1,1,1,1,1 and his come up 1,2,3,4,5,6, he hasn't been any more or less lucky than you have. If you both play WoW and you get bracers six weeks in a row and he gets gear for six different slots, he hasn't been more or less lucky than you either, because none of the previous rolls have any bearing on the result of any of the following rolls.
You're looking at it as "90% chance to get anything except bracers" but not understanding that still doesn't make you any more or less likely in week one to get bracers than you are after 20 weeks of getting bracers. I don't know how many analogies it's going to take but if you flip a coin 9 times and get heads every time, and then bet your house it'll flip tails because it couldn't possibly roll heads ten times in a row that's crazythen you deserve to lose.
It sucks on the individual level, I'm sure, to get the same result 10 times in a row. It's just not statistically significant in any way. All I'm saying is that the statistical likelihood of a person who goes 14 weeks getting the same slot every time vs someone who gets 14 different slots is exactly the same.
You’re incorrect, you’re applying gamblers phallacy.
If the chances of bracers dropping is 1/10, then the chances of the next drop being a bracer is still 1/10. The chances of those happening in sequence are lower yes, but the the first drop does not influence chancew of second drop.
Imagine rolling a six sided die 5 times, and it comes up 6 for all 5 times. The next time you roll a die, the chances of it rolling 6 are still 1/6.
Last edited by schwarzkopf; 2021-05-07 at 07:38 AM.
Due to COVID-19, Germany is running out of sausages and cheese.
The government considers this to be the Wurst Käse scenario
That's a pseudorandom number generator, however you can get hardware to allow development of real random numbers these days. https://www.random.org/ generates true random numbers.
Having said that - pseudorandom sequences are pretty damn good these days if you spend a few hours getting it right.
Due to COVID-19, Germany is running out of sausages and cheese.
The government considers this to be the Wurst Käse scenario
This is easy with three numbers and two rolls. The possibilities are 1,1 1,2 1,3 2,1 2,2 2,3 3,1 3,2 3,3. If you only get 1s the chance is 1/9. If you get unique numbers the chance is 6/9. Unique ones is way way more likely
If it's a specific one like you know it's 3,1 or 1,1 then it's same of course. But here we don't know the order, it can be any order and any items
This is not true at all. If you roll a dice then getting the same number 6 times in a row is a lot more unlikely than getting all 6 different numbers. You can check https://math.stackexchange.com/quest...ice-are-rolled and https://stats.stackexchange.com/ques...times-in-a-row
The end result is widely different. 6 times same in a row is around 0.1% is it? When distinct faces is 1,5%.
Last edited by kukkamies; 2021-05-07 at 08:26 AM.
i guess it can be posible for some characters to suffer from some weird bug/glitch,we see this all the time in wow,a friend of mine did a bg and he got the achvment for a different bg for example
a guy once posted about not getting any item in heroic dungeons for a few days
Even pseudo randomness is good enough for a weekly reward chest in a freaking video game. On average the player will get a bunch of different slots after a few weeks or months. It’s hilarious how people here who get the same slots multiple times in a row just can’t accept that they aren’t in the bulk of the bell curve but at the edge of it. Somehow it’s easier to accept a conspiracy against them instead of accepting bad luck.
I got my 226 scales trinket after months of playing and exactly one week after finally getting it to drop the very first time for me and upgrading it to 220. It’s funny how random stuff like this happens sometimes. But I’m not that stupid to think Blizzard intentionally messed with me in particular. I’m just a number to them.
Come on, man. Say you want to roll 1 all six times on six rolls of a die:
Roll 1, 1/6 chance of 1
Roll 2, 1/6 chance of 1
...
Roll 6, 1/6 chance of 1
= 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 chance of your desired outcome.
Say you want to roll 1,2,3,4,5,6:
Roll 1, 1/6 chance of 1
Roll 2, 1/6 chance of 2
...
Roll 6, 1/6 chance of 6
= 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 chance of your desired outcome.
There are 720 possible outcomes, and each of them are exactly as likely as each other. If you picked any six numbers between 1 and 6 and I picked any six numbers between 1 and 6 and we rolled a die six times we both have exactly the same chance to "win".
What you're thinking of is a situation where you're choosing an outcome and you "win" when it doesn't occur. Think flipping a coin twice and betting it won't flip tails both times. You would expect a 75% chance to win that bet, because H/H, H/T, and T/H are all wins. The probability of any individual flip being 50% is still fixed, though, and that's the same with the great vault.