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  1. #281
    Quote Originally Posted by Fleugen View Post
    Interesting how instead of prove your point, you instead break out a dictionary for a completely arbitrary tangent.

    You did not "need to break out the dictionary." This literally has nothing to do with the conversation. Try to stay on point. You are discluding OP's results from your "expected outcomes." Why? What is your reason? "It's unlikely to happen" isn't a feasible answer because it's a programmed system - You are saying that OP's result is expected, not random, predictable. That's what it being "not random" is.

    So how is it not random? Explain yourself.
    WTF? You are the one who says every result is expected. I said it's extremely rare which also means unexpected.
    If you have a random number generator for 1-10000 and you get 1, it's unexpected.
    If you choose 7 numbers in lottery and by pure luck you get all 7 correct it's unexpected.

    Do you really not know what expected means?
    Quote Originally Posted by Fleugen View Post
    I can't speak to the probability of the rolls, and neither can you. That's the literal point of my posts at you.

    If you can't speak to the probability of one of the events, all you can do is speak in non-specific terms about it. That's why it's a figure of speech - I'm not comparing literal probabilities because as mentioned, your arbitrary number is just that - An arbitrary number which is not worth considering.

    Don't get your knickers in a twist over a misunderstanding. It's not your first, and I assure you, it probably won't be your last.
    Then why did you mention that the probabilities of the two events are different, comparing them? And other is lower so it can be disregarded. When now you say that you cannot know if it's different probability and cannot compare them? So can you disregard the Wikipedia page?

  2. #282
    Quote Originally Posted by iamthedevil View Post
    Yeah thats how natural rng would work. This is "lets keep them paying" rng which is much different.
    I got almost all BiS gear from vault since week 1 so problem solved, there is the lucky guy (me) and the unlucky guy (OP) so it's all neutral now.

  3. #283
    Quote Originally Posted by Baleful View Post
    I got almost all BiS gear from vault since week 1 so problem solved, there is the lucky guy (me) and the unlucky guy (OP) so it's all neutral now.
    For every person raging at the "unfair" system because they havnt got what they wanted, there is someone sitting back with bis items saying "huh? whats the problem? its a great system!!!". Just the nature of the beast.

  4. #284
    It's just carrot on a stick.

    I'm living for the day when we'll finally say last goodbye to the RNG weekly slot machine and get hp/vp vendors back!

  5. #285
    Quote Originally Posted by Fleugen View Post
    Once again, you are putting your lack of understanding on full display.

    Getting a 1 is no less likely than getting a 3500. Getting a 7000 is no less likely than getting a 1. Getting 6666 is no less likely than getting 7000.

    If any number is unexpected, ALL numbers are unexpected because they have the same probability to be rolled unless you're talking MULTIPLE number generators being added together to make a single number (Such as dice rolls - Where two die average to make a result of 7 more likely, and 3 die average to make a result of 10/11 most likely.) making ANY result EXPECTED. (Ex.: What are you more likely to roll when you roll a 6 sided die? None of the numbers - They are all 1/6th of a chance. Unless you, which I'm sure you will, bring into play the weight of the die, the angle at which the die falls, the angle it hits the table... But I'm not about to get into physics and the likelyhood of a percentage weighted die on MMO-champion.)



    I can, because again, I have no reason to believe this statistical anomaly is so far off-base that it deserves some mention of being improbable.

    And, given that it DID happen, it clearly isn't impossible.

    So why should I care about this wikipedia page of a theory that has never been proven, exists in a bubble, and only as a fringe belief? Please, do enlighten us, oh sire of tangents and bringer of irrelevant information.
    We are not talking about a single number. It's a group of numbers. It's pretty obvious you never got past grade school in Maths.
    Getting number with only 1 or 2 unique digits is more rare than one with 3 or 4 unique digits when rolling 1-10000. It's really obvious what kind of numbers are rare and what not.
    This isn't difficult math. It was gone through quite a few times even in this thread.
    When you roll a dice 4 times, do you expect it all to be same number? Or multiple different numbers?


    What did happen? I don't understand. 10^150 happened in the article? Lightning striking twice happened?

  6. #286
    Quote Originally Posted by kukkamies View Post
    We are not talking about a single number. It's a group of numbers. It's pretty obvious you never got past grade school in Maths.
    Getting number with only 1 or 2 unique digits is more rare than one with 3 or 4 unique digits when rolling 1-10000. It's really obvious what kind of numbers are rare and what not.
    This isn't difficult math. It was gone through quite a few times even in this thread.
    When you roll a dice 4 times, do you expect it all to be same number? Or multiple different numbers?


    What did happen? I don't understand. 10^150 happened in the article? Lightning striking twice happened?
    This is the absolute definition of a conspiracy theory.

    Conflating different definitions of a word to confuse people. Blaming others for your failing to be diligent. Trying to prove a negative.

    You are the one arguing with the default position. You have to prove it. None of the stories presented proves anything, and the simplest, and officially claimed, conclusion is a weighted RNG. Making a claim adverse to real evidence without any real evidence is a political argument. It has no basis it truth.

    (BTW, an expected result to a mathematician is any result that is within the set of possible results, since you wanted to bring up math. Your argument there is like saying "evolution is only a theory" to a scientist.)
    Last edited by Shaetha; 2021-05-14 at 06:02 AM.

  7. #287
    Quote Originally Posted by Shaetha View Post
    This is the absolute definition of a conspiracy theory.

    Conflating different definitions of a word to confuse people. Blaming others for your failing to be diligent. Trying to prove a negative.

    You are the one arguing with the default position. You have to prove it. None of the stories presented proves anything, and the simplest, and officially claimed, conclusion is a weighted RNG. Making a claim adverse to real evidence without any real evidence is a political argument. It has no basis it truth.

    (BTW, an expected result to a mathematician is any result that is within the set of possible results, since you wanted to bring up math. Your argument there is like saying "evolution is only a theory" to a scientist.)
    You can literally put your own text "expected result to a mathematician" into google and receive the answer that you are completely wrong. It takes mere seconds to see whether it's right or wrong, but you still claim what you did.

    There is real math, real studies etc about expected results, values, parameters whatever. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value . It's not any value within result set. Possible value and expected value is different. I know this one isn't grade school math, but you can still read the text.
    Last edited by kukkamies; 2021-05-14 at 06:28 AM.

  8. #288
    Quote Originally Posted by kukkamies View Post
    You can literally put your own text "expected result to a mathematician" into google and receive the answer that you are completely wrong. It takes mere seconds to see whether it's right or wrong, but you still claim what you did.

    There is real math, real studies etc about expected results, values, parameters whatever. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value . It's not any value within result set. Possible value and expected value is different. I know this one isn't grade school math, but you can still read the text.
    Sorry, you're still trying to prove a negative, I don't care anymore. I'm not going to argue with a zealot.

  9. #289
    Quote Originally Posted by Shaetha View Post
    Sorry, you're still trying to prove a negative, I don't care anymore. I'm not going to argue with a zealot.
    What negative? I am happy with Weighted RNG and I do agree that it's the likely one. Fleugen is the one who wasn't happy with just a weighted rng, not me.

    What's under discussion is Fleugen thinks that even a 1 in 1 000 000 000 000 000 is an expected result and so the likely outcome in what OP did.
    Last edited by kukkamies; 2021-05-14 at 06:54 AM.

  10. #290
    Quote Originally Posted by kukkamies View Post
    You can literally put your own text "expected result to a mathematician" into google and receive the answer that you are completely wrong. It takes mere seconds to see whether it's right or wrong, but you still claim what you did.

    There is real math, real studies etc about expected results, values, parameters whatever. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value . It's not any value within result set. Possible value and expected value is different. I know this one isn't grade school math, but you can still read the text.
    An expected value is not the same as an expected result. That's all i'm gonna say here.

  11. #291
    Quote Originally Posted by huth View Post
    An expected value is not the same as an expected result. That's all i'm gonna say here.
    Sorry but I cannot find anything, no articles, papers, study material about specifically "expected result" related to mathematics, probability and statistics as was talked here and. I would be happy if you would explain.

    What I can find is expected result used when something is completely wrong. 1+1=3 levels. Which is not what was in discussion here. Used either with those or the expected value meaning depending on link. For example https://www.radford.edu/rsheehy/Gen_...ial/x2-tut.htm which uses result or value interchangeably.
    Last edited by kukkamies; 2021-05-14 at 09:12 AM.

  12. #292
    Quote Originally Posted by kukkamies View Post
    Sorry but I cannot find anything, no articles, papers, study material about specifically "expected result" related to mathematics, probability and statistics as was talked here and. I would be happy if you would explain.

    What I can find is expected result used when something is completely wrong. 1+1=3 levels. Which is not what was in discussion here. Used either with those or the expected value meaning depending on link. For example https://www.radford.edu/rsheehy/Gen_...ial/x2-tut.htm which uses result or value interchangeably.
    So you actually found the correct definition, yet refuse to acknowledge it. Seems Shaetha was on point.

  13. #293
    Quote Originally Posted by huth View Post
    So you actually found the correct definition, yet refuse to acknowledge it. Seems Shaetha was on point.
    If you tried to read the conversation, we were both talking about expected value. I now see that Felgen also understands what it meant, but I didn't notice it first time.

    Let me borrow Felgen for a while.
    ""unless you're talking MULTIPLE number generators being added together to make a single number (Such as dice rolls - Where two die average to make a result of 7 more likely, and 3 die average to make a result of 10/11 most likely.)""
    which is what expected value means. And he did understand it. I should have focused more on that, since that is basically this whole topic.

    I guess you now think both Felgin and Shaetha too meant the "wrong" meaning?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Fleugen View Post
    If any number is unexpected, ALL numbers are unexpected because they have the same probability to be rolled unless you're talking MULTIPLE number generators being added together to make a single number (Such as dice rolls - Where two die average to make a result of 7 more likely, and 3 die average to make a result of 10/11 most likely.) making ANY result EXPECTED.
    Sorry notice this only now. Yeah exactly. If you roll 3 dies and you get 1,1,1 = 3 it's not the expected result. Expected is 10/11 as you said. It's pretty much this whole topic. There are unexpected rolls just like when you have multiple ones like in Great Vault.
    Last edited by kukkamies; 2021-05-14 at 12:06 PM.

  14. #294
    Quote Originally Posted by Fleugen View Post
    Except that, again, it's only "unexpected" insofar as it happens multiple times. Which it hasn't. Not even in OP's case.

    You are blind to the fact that you are arguing that OP's results are within expected parameters, while attempting to argue that they don't make sense.

    This is why I'm ignoring you now.
    It did happen multiple times did it not? 7 times so far for OP.
    I honestly don't even understand which part it is that you don't like. Do you agree that 10/11 is the expected for the 3 dice rolls? And isn't it good for you if I argue for it being expected?

    Also quick question. Did you also ignore huth as he didn't understand you either?
    Last edited by kukkamies; 2021-05-14 at 12:35 PM.

  15. #295
    Quote Originally Posted by Fleugen View Post
    OP specifically states he got 1 result, followed by an entirely different result - a different gear slot entirely, three times in a row - Followed by yet a third result - A third gear slot, three times in a row



    These are not the same results. If you're going to estimate how likely it is for OP to have rolled any set of the same item 3 times, 7 times in a row, it's very different than if OP rolled the same 3 items 7 times in a row. Even if the items WEREN'T the same item - To roll ANY combination of items, repeatedly, 7 times in a row, is astronomically low.

    But OP didn't have that happen. OP had several different results appear. It just always repeated the slot which dropped. He also doesn't tell us it was the SAME item, just the same SLOT. (except in the case of the trinket)



    No, because he isn't incessantly messaging me showing off his inability to understand simple concepts.

    Now that you're ignored, I won't open another message, so no more questions thanks!
    Now I see the problem yeah. That is a bit more advanced mathematics since you need to think about what are the chances for any item to happen 3 times in a row, not just a specific one. With three dice instead of being 1/6 times three when getting specific it's only times two for any same 3 numbers. A lot easier but still very rare.

    For huth he was unable to understand the meaning of "expected results" multiple times, which is pretty simple. So you ignoring me has to be something else than failing to understand a simple thing multiple times.
    This is the 3rd time you say it's the end of discussion It's starting to be the expected result of 10/11 with 3 dice.
    Last edited by kukkamies; 2021-05-14 at 07:23 PM.

  16. #296
    Quote Originally Posted by kukkamies View Post
    Now I see the problem yeah. That is a bit more advanced mathematics since you need to think about what are the chances for any item to happen 3 times in a row, not just a specific one. With three dice instead of being 1/6 times three when getting specific it's only times two for any same 3 numbers. A lot easier but still very rare.

    For huth he was unable to understand the meaning of "expected results" multiple times, which is pretty simple. So you ignoring me has to be something else than failing to understand a simple thing multiple times.
    This is the 3rd time you say it's the end of discussion It's starting to be the expected result of 10/11 with 3 dice.
    You're still confusing expected results with expected values. 10.5 is the expected value for 3 six-sided dice. 3-18 is the expected results. The expected value isn't even an expected result for this situation.

    Nothing here even touches advanced mathematics, this is all pretty tame stuff.

  17. #297
    Quote Originally Posted by huth View Post
    You're still confusing expected results with expected values. 10.5 is the expected value for 3 six-sided dice. 3-18 is the expected results. The expected value isn't even an expected result for this situation.

    Nothing here even touches advanced mathematics, this is all pretty tame stuff.
    You should try read what Fleugen who mentioned expected results wrote.
    If you have a problem with his meaning then take it up to Fleugen.
    He is the one who started using it and gave the definition of it that we were both using and understood as same.

    Or you could spend 1-5 minutes on google like I did to find out how it is used.
    Last edited by kukkamies; 2021-05-15 at 01:19 PM.

  18. #298
    It's down to the random gods

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