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  1. #281
    Quote Originally Posted by Nzx View Post
    If you picked any six numbers between 1 and 6 and I picked any six numbers between 1 and 6 and we rolled a die six times we both have exactly the same chance to "win".
    That is true yes.
    Quote Originally Posted by Nzx View Post
    What you're thinking of is a situation where you're choosing an outcome and you "win" when it doesn't occur. Think flipping a coin twice and betting it won't flip tails both times. You would expect a 75% chance to win that bet, because H/H, H/T, and T/H are all wins. The probability of any individual flip being 50% is still fixed, though, and that's the same with the great vault.
    Yep and this is more like we win when it doesn't occur. We don't want all wrists. We want all unique items. There is no one we are competing with, there isn't a single winning line we want. We want any line that has all unique numbers. Of course a single specific line is the same. But we don't want a single specific line. We are happy with "bracelet, chest, trinket". "Weapon, head, boots". "Neck, shoulders, ring" etc. We want entirely different slots as items. Not the specific "bracelet chest trinket" only.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nzx View Post
    You have literally the exact same chance of hitting 10 items in the same slot back to back to back as you do of hitting 10 items in entirely different slots.
    10 items in entirely different slots. We don't know what slots and in what order. We don't want a specific "wrists, legs, helm, trinket, weapon..." order from great vault like the "1,2,3,4,5,6". Any order is fine. We are happy as long as it's different numbers in it. same slot is 1,1,1 2,2,2 3,3,3. Different slots is 1,2,3 1,3,2 2,1,3 2,3,1 3,1,2 3,2,1. Getting different slots is a lot more likely than all same.

  2. #282
    Quote Originally Posted by Edward Wu View Post
    You really have to wonder what the motivation behind such blatant disingenuousness from people like this is? Puzzling shit.
    How is it disingenuous? Pieces that I got from thhe great vault were the carbon copies of gear that dropped in the raid, name and all. This lie is claiming that loot only drops from the great vault and that it is the only place you can get it. Not the case when the loot in the great vault comes from the raid boss loot tables.

  3. #283
    The Unstoppable Force FelPlague's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kukkamies View Post
    This is not true at all. If you roll a dice then getting the same number 6 times in a row is a lot more unlikely than getting all 6 different numbers. You can check
    No, literally every single combination of numbers has the exact same chance of being rolled. being the same or a different number does not magically make it more likely to be rolled


    if we roll a 10 sided die, every single side has a 1 in 10 chance of being rolled
    rolling a 10 does not magically make rolling 10 again less likely, every side is still a 1 in 10 chance.


    the odds for rollin 1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9/10 are the EXACT same as rolling 10/10/10/10/10/10/10/10/10/10, and that has the exact same chance of rolling 10/9/8/7/6/5/4/3/2/1
    you just failed what is it.... 5th grade math you learn probability?

    the only time getting something multiple times is less likely is if you remove the result
    you have a bag with 2 blue and 2 red in it. that means you have a 50 chance of pulling a red, and 50 chance of pulling a blue. but if you pull a red, then take that red out, suddenly you have a 33% chance to get red, and 66% chance to get blue.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by kukkamies View Post
    That is true yes.

    Yep and this is more like we win when it doesn't occur. We don't want all wrists. We want all unique items. There is no one we are competing with, there isn't a single winning line we want. We want any line that has all unique numbers. Of course a single specific line is the same. But we don't want a single specific line. We are happy with "bracelet, chest, trinket". "Weapon, head, boots". "Neck, shoulders, ring" etc. We want entirely different slots as items. Not the specific "bracelet chest trinket" only.


    10 items in entirely different slots. We don't know what slots and in what order. We don't want a specific "wrists, legs, helm, trinket, weapon..." order from great vault like the "1,2,3,4,5,6". Any order is fine. We are happy as long as it's different numbers in it. same slot is 1,1,1 2,2,2 3,3,3. Different slots is 1,2,3 1,3,2 2,1,3 2,3,1 3,1,2 3,2,1. Getting different slots is a lot more likely than all same.
    no, getting different slots is not more likely then getting all of the same slot, thats literally not how probabiltiy works.



    your ods of getting 8/8/8/8/8/8/8 is the exact same as 1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8
    so the odds of getting pants every single time is the same as getting gloves.
    the only thing that effects it is that there may be more "options" in one then another, there may be 10 pairs of pants and 15 pairs of gloves, which means you have a hgiher chance to get gloves then pants, but each individual item has the exact same chance as another.

  4. #284
    Quote Originally Posted by FelPlague View Post
    no, getting different slots is not more likely then getting all of the same slot, thats literally not how probabiltiy works.
    This is not a single roll vs a single roll. This is multiple possible right values. Getting 88888 is more unlikely than getting 8/anything but 8/anything but earlier 2/anything but earlier 3/etc..
    When tossing 50 coins, would you bet that there is at least one of each item or only all heads? It's obvious that you cannot get 50 heads in a row even if you tossed the coin for years.

    Gambler's fallacy really has gone too far. Even places where it's not a thing people think it is. Or maybe people get stuck in 5th grade math and are unable to understand probability past it?
    Last edited by kukkamies; 2021-05-07 at 12:51 PM.

  5. #285
    Quote Originally Posted by Nzx View Post
    Lmao what the ever-loving fuck are you talking about? Are you seriously trying to tell me that you believe you are more likely to roll the sequence "1,2,3,4,5,6" on a six-sided die than you are to roll "1,1,1,1,1,1"?
    You did not mention any order. You said rolling completely different rolls vs rolling the same thing have the exact same probability. I have shown you that it's not. Now shoo.
    Last edited by Kuntantee; 2021-05-07 at 07:35 PM.

  6. #286
    Quote Originally Posted by FelPlague View Post
    No, literally every single combination of numbers has the exact same chance of being rolled. being the same or a different number does not magically make it more likely to be rolled
    You're talking about two different things. kukkamies is correct that getting all 6 values is more likely than getting the same value 6 times. However, getting those 6 values in a specific order is not.

    Quote Originally Posted by kukkamies View Post
    It's obvious that you cannot get 50 heads in a row even if you tossed the coin for years.
    Wrong. It is unlikely. Nonetheless, it could happen within the first 50 tosses unless the coin cannot fall on heads, in which case it would truly be impossible to get the result ever.

  7. #287
    Quote Originally Posted by huth View Post
    Wrong. It is unlikely. Nonetheless, it could happen within the first 50 tosses unless the coin cannot fall on heads, in which case it would truly be impossible to get the result ever.
    It's possible in the same way winning the lottery twice in a row is yeah. Don't think anyone expects it to happen

  8. #288
    Please wait Temp name's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nzx View Post
    Come on, man. Say you want to roll 1 all six times on six rolls of a die:

    Roll 1, 1/6 chance of 1
    Roll 2, 1/6 chance of 1
    ...
    Roll 6, 1/6 chance of 1
    = 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 chance of your desired outcome.

    Say you want to roll 1,2,3,4,5,6:

    Roll 1, 1/6 chance of 1
    Roll 2, 1/6 chance of 2
    ...
    Roll 6, 1/6 chance of 6
    = 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 chance of your desired outcome.

    There are 720 possible outcomes, and each of them are exactly as likely as each other. If you picked any six numbers between 1 and 6 and I picked any six numbers between 1 and 6 and we rolled a die six times we both have exactly the same chance to "win".

    What you're thinking of is a situation where you're choosing an outcome and you "win" when it doesn't occur. Think flipping a coin twice and betting it won't flip tails both times. You would expect a 75% chance to win that bet, because H/H, H/T, and T/H are all wins. The probability of any individual flip being 50% is still fixed, though, and that's the same with the great vault.
    Yeah, but that only works if you want the exact result 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

    If you just want all unique rolls then you have:
    roll 1: 6/6 chance, everything is unique
    roll 2: 5/6 chance, only one result would duplicate
    ..
    roll 6 1/6 chance, only one result wouldn't be duplicate

    which is a LOT more likely than getting any specific result.

  9. #289
    Quote Originally Posted by kukkamies View Post
    It's possible in the same way winning the lottery twice in a row is yeah. Don't think anyone expects it to happen
    On the other hand, given the number of humans that have played the lottery, it's rather likely it already happened to somebody. Which is relevant to the issue with the Vault, since having a few repeats in the Vault isn't that unlikely that it can't have happened to somebody.

    I somewhat doubt anybody who plays the lottery expects it to not happen for the right reason, either... if they understood probability, they wouldn't be playing.

  10. #290
    I don't think it has tbh. Especially one that would require similar odds to this 50 coin tosses all heads. This is 1 in 10^16, it is completely absurd odds. 10^16 divided by people on earth 7 * 10^9 leaves around 1 400 000 tries for every person. That would take years even if every single person on earth was doing it.

    A scractchie ticket has happened on google, but that isn't what I'd think as lottery. It was only one in 200million occurrence, very small compared to the these scales.

    I still play lottery for the tiny chance it might happen. It's much more exciting than safe stocks or p2p loans.
    Last edited by kukkamies; 2021-05-08 at 08:32 PM.

  11. #291
    Quote Originally Posted by kukkamies View Post
    I don't think it has tbh. Especially one that would require similar odds to this 50 coin tosses all heads. This is 1 in 10^16, it is completely absurd odds. 10^16 divided by people on earth 7 * 10^9 leaves around 1 400 000 tries for every person. That would take years even if every single person on earth was doing it.

    A scractchie ticket has happened on google, but that isn't what I'd think as lottery. It was only one in 200million occurrence, very small compared to the these scales.

    I still play lottery for the tiny chance it might happen. It's much more exciting than safe stocks or p2p loans.
    Most lotteries have way better odds of winning than that. Also, that's only about 1 in 10^15, so your theoretical players only need 140,000 tries.

    And the majority of players spends more than they win, especially if somebody makes it big. The total sum of winnings is less than the combined price of tickets sold.

  12. #292
    Quote Originally Posted by huth View Post
    Most lotteries have way better odds of winning than that. Also, that's only about 1 in 10^15, so your theoretical players only need 140,000 tries.

    And the majority of players spends more than they win, especially if somebody makes it big. The total sum of winnings is less than the combined price of tickets sold.
    What do you mean 1 in 10^15? 140 000 still sounds like it'd take years... The one million is more like decades.

    Yeah the 1 in 200 million was winning twice in a row. It was a small scratchie. Not a real lottery where just winning once is closer to one in ten million. That twice in a row gets to impossible levels.

    Of course almost everyone spends more than they win with gambling. If winnings was bigger it'd be a charity and not gambling.

  13. #293
    Quote Originally Posted by Temp name View Post
    Yeah, but that only works if you want the exact result 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

    If you just want all unique rolls then you have:
    roll 1: 6/6 chance, everything is unique
    roll 2: 5/6 chance, only one result would duplicate
    ..
    roll 6 1/6 chance, only one result wouldn't be duplicate

    which is a LOT more likely than getting any specific result.
    He has been corrected many times by different people. In the very first page, he makes the same ignorant claim that rolling same numbers has the same probability of rolling different each time. That was 15 pages ago. I'd stop trying to explain, he probably isn't capable of grasping basic probability.

  14. #294
    Quote Originally Posted by kukkamies View Post
    What do you mean 1 in 10^15? 140 000 still sounds like it'd take years... The one million is more like decades.

    Yeah the 1 in 200 million was winning twice in a row. It was a small scratchie. Not a real lottery where just winning once is closer to one in ten million. That twice in a row gets to impossible levels.

    Of course almost everyone spends more than they win with gambling. If winnings was bigger it'd be a charity and not gambling.
    Depends on whether you mean winning the top prize or just winning anything. And 1 in 10,000,000 twice in a row is actually just 1 in 10^7*10^7 or 1 in 10^14, so another order of magnitude smaller. Many lotteries also allow multiple entries per player. Given that lotteries have existed for centuries, the odds aren't that bad that it happened repeatedly already.

  15. #295
    Quote Originally Posted by huth View Post
    Depends on whether you mean winning the top prize or just winning anything. And 1 in 10,000,000 twice in a row is actually just 1 in 10^7*10^7 or 1 in 10^14, so another order of magnitude smaller. Many lotteries also allow multiple entries per player. Given that lotteries have existed for centuries, the odds aren't that bad that it happened repeatedly already.
    It does sound kinda possible. But haven't seen in any records that it has happened. Only twice overall but never in a row.

    But yeah. The original 50 coin tosses and all heads doesn't sound probably at all for a single person. Not even if he kept doing it his whole life. Similar to generating crypto wallets. There is a miniscule chance you can generate another persons keys and can steal their coins. But it's so small it's not taken as a risk to crypto.

  16. #296
    The problem with understanding randomness is that it requires some knowledge, and internet discussions on topics that requires that are not doing well in general.

    The base chance and the statistical probability of an event occuring are two different things. This is something that a lot of people get wrong and argue about. As a collector I mostly hear that in discussion about rare mount drops. For example if the drop rate is 1%, it is 1% whenever you do the action that potentially grants the reward. Based on that some people would argue that it is as likely to get such item on your first attempt as it is on your 1000th attempt, which is obviously not true. By making more and more attempts you're making it statistically more probable to get the result you seek, that's just how it works - simply because you have more attempts.

    There are actually calculators on the internet for rng drops and giving you probability of getting such a drop. I just found this one by quick google search. You input the % chance and you get some trivia about probability, chance, likelihood etc. https://xplainthegame.com/dropchance-calculator/ So if something has 1% drop chance, at 229 attempts you have 90% statistical probability that it happens at least once. At 458 it's 99% which means that if you don't get a 1% drop by 458 try you are either extremely unlucky, or there is a hidden mechanic added to the rng and it's not just a simple 1 out of 100 roll.

    Another issue. As some people here point out, randomness and probability created by software / coders is not really randomness, but pseudorandomness. This is well explained on the website dedicated to giving you truly random results (True Random Number Generator - check it out here https://www.random.org/) to quote the explanation:

    Perhaps you have wondered how predictable machines like computers can generate randomness. In reality, most random numbers used in computer programs are pseudo-random, which means they are generated in a predictable fashion using a mathematical formula. This is fine for many purposes, but it may not be random in the way you expect if you're used to dice rolls and lottery drawings.

    So yes, everyone arguing that the randomness in games is not real randomness is right. Randomness in games is done by formulas, and what's more, it can be easily augmented by additional values and modifiers.

  17. #297
    Stitchflesh's Misplaced Signet 6 weeks in a row crew

  18. #298
    Quote Originally Posted by schwarzkopf View Post
    I know how probability works, and yes - random is random.

    The problem is that people don't fathom how randomness interacts with large sample sizes.

    They assume that one person describing a rare event isn't random because they forget that there has been millions of experiments generating the output.

    People need to head to random.org and check out how random works.

    I hope that helps with your error.
    Confirmation bias is fun.

  19. #299
    The Lightbringer gutnbrg's Avatar
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    my only bad item was a slightly better item level of a trinket i already had, and it was a crappy trinket. Everything else has been good

    also im prob a little older than u but if ur ever at a casino and ur down $2k and u finally get blackjack and u feel amazing and then the dealer gets black jack too, your mindset on rng and life will change drastically
    Last edited by gutnbrg; 2021-05-09 at 08:08 AM.

  20. #300
    Quote Originally Posted by kukkamies View Post
    It's possible in the same way winning the lottery twice in a row is yeah. Don't think anyone expects it to happen
    The law of large numbers dictates it will happen and someone will bitch about it on a forum because they cannot accept they were just unlucky and want to spread hate because of it.

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