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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaver View Post
    But can we be 100% certain that Blizzards random number generator isn't flawed in some ways?
    No we can't and it doesn't matter that we can't.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Wuusah View Post
    No we can't and it doesn't matter that we can't.
    I mean if someone got the same item 3 weeks in a row because of a flawed system... then I would say it matters.

    Can I ask, do you play the game right now? Just curious.

  3. #23
    Shits not random. Just like the chest before it. Blizzard just wants to milk you. They have some fucked up algorithm for EVERYTHING at this point. No wonder their playerbase overall is down by over a third (over all games)... We're all sick of this shit.

  4. #24
    if a system is shit they call it "rng" and blame it on "random number". there is no such thing in controlled environments like games where just some rolled number controls a reward system. there is much more to it, but people dont like to be taken on a ride, so they blame the game numers god.

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Duroga View Post
    What kind of Coding do they use in the great vault, i don't get it.

    With my Horde monk first 3 items i got were all bracers, then 3 helmets in a row, now 3 pants
    With my Horde Paladin first 3 item i got were all bracers, then 3 times the same trinket, then 3 breastplates

    now i leveled a Alliance Paladin and today i opened my first great vault: Bracers


    What a coincidence. What are the odds?
    It's one of the reasons, why I try to avoid messing with RNG in Wow. I noticed so called "bad" RNG back in old days of WotLK, when certain items refused to drop to your main for months, while easily dropping to your alts, but nobody could prove it back then. And it became obvious, that there was some sort of "smart" system there, back in WOD. Because some loot was dropping only after weekly reset and chances to get it were fading pretty quick after that. It looked like some hidden CD or droprate diminishing. So what? RNG is just lie. It's just way to take control over rewards away from you and put it to their hands. That's, why I prefer, when rewards are guaranteed or almost guaranteed. Just don't do any content, if it's not true.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by iamthedevil View Post
    Shits not random. Just like the chest before it. Blizzard just wants to milk you. They have some fucked up algorithm for EVERYTHING at this point. No wonder their playerbase overall is down by over a third (over all games)... We're all sick of this shit.
    I'm sure the devs all got together and conspired to work on malicious code, hand tailored to screw the players, then lied to everyone about its random nature lol

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by ellieg View Post
    I'm sure the devs all got together and conspired to work on malicious code, hand tailored to screw the players, then lied to everyone about its random nature lol
    Have you met blizzard?

  8. #28
    Legendary! Ealyssa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Loveliest View Post
    1. first time you have equal chance to get each, which is 1/10; say you get wrists
    2. second time, the chance to get wrists again is not 1/10; it's 1/10*1/10;
    Holy shit, no, that's not how it works.

    You toss a coin, it's 50-50. You toss it a second time, it's still 50-50. You toss it a third time. It's still 50-50.

    The previous result don't impact the next one at all.
    Quote Originally Posted by primalmatter View Post
    nazi is not the abbreviation of national socialism....
    When googling 4 letters is asking too much fact-checking.

  9. #29
    Bloodsail Admiral Malania's Avatar
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    I got Trinkets for my first 2 weeks and my 4th. RNG is RNG. I got a Gun then 3 weeks later I got a bow.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Ealyssa View Post
    Holy shit, no, that's not how it works.

    You toss a coin, it's 50-50. You toss it a second time, it's still 50-50. You toss it a third time. It's still 50-50.

    The previous result don't impact the next one at all.
    Yeah thats how natural rng would work. This is "lets keep them paying" rng which is much different.

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by iamthedevil View Post
    Shits not random. Just like the chest before it. Blizzard just wants to milk you. They have some fucked up algorithm for EVERYTHING at this point. No wonder their playerbase overall is down by over a third (over all games)... We're all sick of this shit.
    I guess they don't want to milk me because I got 226 pieces in the correct slots almost every week up until I was 221 or something like that, at that point I was like "good enough" and haven't bothered with gearing except through mythic raiding.

  12. #32
    Its things like getting 3 bracers in a row that probably point to it being random rather than not. Sounds counterintuitive, but random things can produce what we perceive as patterns and then we label them as not random (eg 3 bracers in a row). Designers dont like this happening and often program in some sort of protection that forces "randomness" but by its very nature is not.

    This happened many years ago (i think it was apple) who had "play random track", but it would often play the same song twice, three, four times in a row etc (as you would expect from truly random selection). But people complained it couldn't be random for that to happen, so they had to program in for this not to happen (they now just shuffle all songs). So the made it feel more random by specifically making sure it wasn't.

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by kukkamies View Post
    One roll doesn't change the roll of next, but altogether it is different chances.

    If there's 10 different possibilities then getting one item twice in a row is 1/10*1/10 as he says. Getting one wrists and one not wrists is 1/10*9/10. The chances are different to get 2 wrists or 1 wrist and one of something else. The next one is always 1/10 but two in a row it's different.
    You're describing a subtly different situation. Getting one specific roll is a different chance of getting the totality of all other possible rolls, yes. But not the chance of getting one other specific roll.

  14. #34
    Legendary! Ealyssa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by iamthedevil View Post
    Shits not random. Just like the chest before it. Blizzard just wants to milk you. They have some fucked up algorithm for EVERYTHING at this point. No wonder their playerbase overall is down by over a third (over all games)... We're all sick of this shit.
    Yeah because alienating your clients is a totally sound business decision.

    Don't forget your tinfoil hat...
    Quote Originally Posted by primalmatter View Post
    nazi is not the abbreviation of national socialism....
    When googling 4 letters is asking too much fact-checking.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by huth View Post
    You're describing a subtly different situation. Getting one specific roll is a different chance of getting the totality of all other possible rolls, yes. But not the chance of getting one other specific roll.
    Here we do want anything else than the one before. One specific one is of course 1/10*1/10. But to get a specific + unique it's 1/10*9/10 which is what we want. It doesn't matter which one of the remaining we get.

    I think he just worded it wrong. Or maybe he doesn't know the Gambler's Fallacy. Or well both, he worded it wrong because he doesn't know it but still has valid meanings.
    Last edited by kukkamies; 2021-05-05 at 11:48 AM.

  16. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by kukkamies View Post
    Here we do want anything else than the one before. One specific one is of course 1/10*1/10. But to get a specific + unique it's 1/10*9/10 which is what we want. It doesn't matter which one of the remaining we get.
    As a player, yes... but what you want as a player is vastly different from what constitutes being random.

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaver View Post
    I mean if someone got the same item 3 weeks in a row because of a flawed system... then I would say it matters.

    Can I ask, do you play the game right now? Just curious.
    I am playing the game right now.

    It doesn't matter if the system is flawed or not. It gives items more or less randomly. It being completely random and you are unlucky or it being not fully random and you're still unlucky doesn't change anything. In the end you just were unlucky.

    This whole thread is just a way for the OP to let off some steam from frustration of being unlucky. Nothing changes for them, though.

  18. #38
    I am Murloc! Lord Pebbleton's Avatar
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    They should put a rule on it so that you cannot get a piece for the same slot twice in one vault.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by Duroga View Post
    What kind of Coding do they use in the great vault, i don't get it.

    With my Horde monk first 3 items i got were all bracers, then 3 helmets in a row, now 3 pants
    With my Horde Paladin first 3 item i got were all bracers, then 3 times the same trinket, then 3 breastplates

    now i leveled a Alliance Paladin and today i opened my first great vault: Bracers


    What a coincidence. What are the odds?
    Most people think that random means that you get string of different numbers without any specific order but in reality any string on numbers is equally random, even if they repeat. It is a fact that random string of number tends to equal distribution of each number but you will only notice it with sample that are very big. With a small sample size it is possible to get the same result 15 times in a row.

    Then there is a matter of fact that WoW is a piece of software. Software is run on a computer. Computers are unable to generate random numbers. In Computer Science we use instead pseudorandom numbers and just call them random. They are just a string of numbers based on a function where each previous one is feeded to next one and the resulting string of numbers have characteristics of randomness. And there are statistical ways to measure how random string of numbers is. One flaw in this is that this string of numbers will always be the same. To avoid that random number generators are usually initilized with current time in miliseconds.

    Lastly there is a philosophical debate about whether true randomness even exists. It's possible that process that appear random are just not fully understood.

    To now how random is the disribution of items from Great vault you can't just look at the items you get on some of your characters. You need to look at full data from all the characters of all players.

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Duroga View Post
    What kind of Coding do they use in the great vault, i don't get it.

    With my Horde monk first 3 items i got were all bracers, then 3 helmets in a row, now 3 pants
    With my Horde Paladin first 3 item i got were all bracers, then 3 times the same trinket, then 3 breastplates

    now i leveled a Alliance Paladin and today i opened my first great vault: Bracers


    What a coincidence. What are the odds?
    The odds may be low, but with millions of players doing this every week, it happens. That's exactly how Randomness works.

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