Great Vault, Random? No Way

[Kaver]

According to you, I don't need evidence.

I'd ask you for evidence of a bug

I say it might be bugged.

You say it's 100% not bugged.

Which statement requires evidence?

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If it was bugged in this instance it'd be effecting all players. RNG isn't per user.

Well it might impact all players, but only a few negatively.

[hulkgor]

snip

And here we are, with people still not understanding RNG, especially on absolutely minimal sample sizes.

Yes. It is random. Move along.

[Kaver]

because you want to believe there's a bug.

Not at all. I'm just saying it's a possibility. Like it was in the past.

[Myradin]

There's only a few classes (Dual-wielders) who'd want to get the same item more than once from the vault.

[Kaver]

That's not how bugs work. The bug would impact all players the same, because each player doesn't have unique RNG. All players are subject to the same RNG rules.

But it doesn't have to impact everyone negatively.

[ellieg]

There's only a few classes (Dual-wielders) who'd want to get the same item more than once from the vault.

There's also same item but with tertiary stats or sockets

[Kaver]

You can't even prove it's affecting everyone.

Well that's not an easy task. But it might be affecting everyone. Just to different degrees. Some negatively.

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And it's possible that it's working SO intended, that it's working better than intended.

Yes that's also possible. It's possible it works as intended. And it's possible that it's bugged.

[huth]

Not at all. I'm just saying it's a possibility. Like it was in the past.

Possible is irrelevant. You need to show that it is likely, not simply possible. I could show that it is possible for you to get shot. That doesn't mean that you're about to get hit by a bullet.

[Kaver]

You need to show that it is likely

But it's not likely. Most likely the weekly vault is not bugged. Be there's still a possibility that it's bugged. We cant say for certain.

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Bugs affect everyone the same.

Bugs in an RNG system wouldn't necessarily have the same outcome for everyone.

[Tsarez]

Holy shit, no, that's not how it works.

You toss a coin, it's 50-50. You toss it a second time, it's still 50-50. You toss it a third time. It's still 50-50.

The previous result don't impact the next one at all.

Nah, that's not how it works. But it's also not 50/50 in this sense. If you flip 100 coins and all 100 end up being head, was this a 50% chance to occur? No, it's about the cumulative result.

Each individual coin flip has a 50% chance to be either tail or head. 100 coin flips being head in a row has a probability of 1/2^100 or 7*10^-31, which should be something like 0,0000000000000000000000000000007%? My calculator just shits out 7,8886090522101180541172856528279^-31 as a result, I can't even comprehend that number. But it's an absurdly low number.

So let's just say that having the same shitty result many times over has a lower chance of happening than seeing a healthy mixture of bad results and good results.

And it's still all RNG.

To be fair though, I work in Software Development related fields. It would actually surprise me if Blizzard has just a simple RNG implemented into the vault. More than likely there are certain factors that determine what items you get. You must not forget that real RNG in code doesn't actually exist. You have to determine a number from a specific set of factors that seems rng, but really isn't.

Final Fantasy 10 for example determines the loot of monsters based on the amount steps you take from encounter to encounter, from the loot you got before that, from the dmg you do, etc. etc. list goes on and on. There are exploits that allow you to reverse-engineer that to a degree to manipulate the loot table.

I can only imagine that Blizzard has something even more ridiculous in place to dictate what you get. Adding a certain bias also helps keeping things in check.

[ellieg]

But it's not likely. Most likely the weekly vault is not bugged. Be there's still a possibility that it's bugged. We cant say for certain.

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Bugs in an RNG system wouldn't necessarily have the same outcome for everyone.

And technically there's still a possibility that the earth is flat and every evidence against that could've been faked. But conspiracies aren't allowed on this site, neither is spam

[huth]

But it's not likely. Most likely the weekly vault is not bugged. Be there's still a possibility that it's bugged. We cant say for certain.

Then you don't have an argument. This isn't up for debate. You're just blowing empty air. If you can't show that it is likely for there to be a bug, then you aren't showing anything and just throwing out meaningless generalist statements.

You're demanding a level of certainty that is physically impossible to achieve. You will never be satisfied with any answer.

[Kaver]

And technically there's still a possibility that the earth is flat and every evidence against that could've been faked. But conspiracies aren't allowed on this site, neither is spam

Based on Blizzards past bugs I wouldn't be extremely surprised if the weekly vault was bugged. It's definitely not the same degree as saying the earth might be flat.

[Kaver]

You're demanding a level of certainty that is physically impossible to achieve.

I'm not demanding anything. I'm just saying that since Blizzards RNG has been bugged in the past there is also a possibility that it's bugged now. We have seen some cases of extreme RNG in relation to the weekly vault. So we cannot know for certain that it's working as intended - although it most likely is.

[ellieg]

Based on Blizzards past bugs I wouldn't be extremely surprised if the weekly vault was bugged. It's definitely not the same degree as saying the earth might be flat.

It is the exact same degree and you have 0 proof that it's not.

[Kaver]

because a bug in an RNG system would stop it from being RNG.

That doesn't mean the outcome would be negative for everyone.

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you have 0 proof that it's not.

It happened in the past. That's reason to suspect that it could happen again. Combined with extreme cases of RNG.

[erifwodahs]

I never had a item in wrist slot since I have started. I have a track record of getting worst trinkets in game in the slots tho

[Kaver]

But it would be not random and thus predictable, and therefore provable.

No it wouldn't necessarily be provable by me. That would still require a lot of work. Something can seem random without being it.

[Jujudrood]

There's also same item but with tertiary stats or sockets

Does this mean in the vault, you could see in any given week the same pair of identical bracers?
I've never seen dupe items in the vault, but it wouldn't surprise me if they allowed identical duping.

[ellieg]

Does this mean in the vault, you could see in any given week the same pair of identical bracers?
I've never seen dupe items in the vault, but it wouldn't surprise me if they allowed identical duping.

Not in the same row same week. But possible in 2 different weeks. As in "big bad belt of buffness - 226" in the vault week 7. And then "big bad belt of buffness - 226" in the vault week 8