Great Vault, Random? No Way

[erifwodahs]

You cannot use your own statement as evidence.

You don't know your 3 items were 100% randomly picked. You assume they are.

Well, I have never heard anyone else getting 3 same slot items. Not even talking about getting same slot item 3 weeks in a row. "worst" rng I have ever had was same item twice in a row in BfA. What op is experiencing is certainly not something which is in "regular" drops otherwise we would have seen way more pots like that. People who get seemingly normal drops have no reason to make pots like this. People who do get "abnormal" drops - do. So even if there were 3 different pots like that it might just be that it's 3 cases who made a forum post while 10k didn't.

[Kaver]

If it's 3 items from 3 different dungeons with 3 different slot types, I don't assume they are - It is 100% guaranteed random. There's no unifying factor at all, and thus, it IS entirely random.

That is absolutely not a prove that it's 100% random.

[Kaver]

Loot being bugged is not a fix that can wait for a patch.

Of course it is if the complaints are few enough. That's just a ridiculous statement.

[tomten]

If it's 3 items from 3 different dungeons with 3 different slot types, I don't assume they are - It is 100% guaranteed random. There's no unifying factor at all, and thus, it IS entirely random. Especially when nobody else got the same 3 items I did. This is then reinforced when the following week, I get two items from the same dungeon, still different slot types, and a third item from a different dungeon with a third slot type. This is further reinforced when the third week, I get three items for the same slot, but from different dungeons.

Cause see, unlike you, I pay attention to the parts which would tip off if things are repeated.

You must be trolling at this point, right?
"When nobody else got the same 3 items as i did"... And you know this how? You have access to millions of openings of great vault?
Stop using your own made up statements without nothing to back it up with, as evidence that something is your way, its the most retarded thing you could ever do lol......

[Yakut]

What kind of Coding do they use in the great vault, i don't get it.

With my Horde monk first 3 items i got were all bracers, then 3 helmets in a row, now 3 pants
With my Horde Paladin first 3 item i got were all bracers, then 3 times the same trinket, then 3 breastplates

now i leveled a Alliance Paladin and today i opened my first great vault: Bracers


What a coincidence. What are the odds?

Since only one person has attempted to give you a partial answer, I will give you a full one operating under the assumption that there aren't any rules which add or subtract items from the list for whatever reason (it is as flawed and as correct as any other weird answer I have seen here).

In a mathematical system, as someone with development experience already pointed out in this thread, odds are calculable. They do not, as someone attempted to suggest, indicate the influence of the previous "dice roll" but simply calculate the odds of something occurring.

This was taught in pre-algebra to me in middle school decades ago and I still remember it (not sure why this stumps people).

The method of calculating the odds of something is relatively simple: (The number of numbers that can show up on the dice roll (1 since a dice can only show one face up at any point) / the number of possible outcomes [or faces of the dice]) ^ Iterations [or times you rolled the dice]

Let's start with a simple example. You have a quarter and it has 2 sides: Heads and Tails. If you flip this coin 6 times, what are the odds it will always land on heads?

(1/2) ^ 6 = 1/64

Since all tails is an equal probability, it too is 1/64. That means, with inductive and deductive reasoning, that the odds of something other than all heads or all tails is 62/64.

It doesn't guarantee the outcome - it simply tells you the odds.

Now, let's go into a more specific example. Let's go through the number of options available in your example.

How many slots are in this scenario as possible drops? (I'm going to increase the number as I go just to show you how many options

Head - 1
Necklace - 2
Shoulders - 3
Cape - 4
Chest - 5
Bracers - 6
Gloves - 7
Belt - 8
Pants - 9
Boots - 10
Main Hand token - 11
Offhand Token - 12
Ring 1 - 13
Ring 2 - 14
Trinket 1 - 15
Trinket 2 - 16

That's 16 slots to fill, right? So, it rather depends on how they run the scenario. Either they said rings and trinkets can drop 2/16 times or 1/14 (removing duplicate rings and trinkets). Since we do not know the answer for sure on that, I will provide the calculations for both.

In this scenario (14 slots vs 16), the odds that this could have occurred to you (receiving the same item for the slot three times in a row) are:
1/14^3: 1/2744 to have that specific combination come up each time (there are 2744 combinations in this scenario). 14/2744 attempts could have the same slot (head, head, head - or cloak, cloak, cloak). The odds are 2730/2744 outcomes would be a mix of slots instead of the same one each time.

It's better odds than you get in Vegas.

Okay, let's assume they did something like give you twice the chance for rings and necklaces (16 slots vs 14):

1/16^3 = 1/4096 to have that specific combination come up each time (there are 4096 combinations in this scenario)

It also means that the other 16 slots being the same in 3 rolls have the same probability. 16/4096 attempts could have the same slot (head, head, head - or cloak, cloak, cloak). The odds are 4080/4096 outcomes would be a mix of slots instead of the same one each time.

Either way, the odds are not unknowable and they're not even impossible. They're just unlikely.

With millions of players around the world, it is sure to have happened to a few people for sure.

[Kaver]

How is it not? It picked 3 completely unrelated items from the list of items. There is no factor which decided those 3 items.

How is it not 100% random?

It picking 3 unrelated items doesn't mean it's completely random for certain. If you cant see that then I'm not sure how to explain it to you.

[tomten]

Again, don't need to. Did anyone of my class get the same items? Did anyone of my race get the same items?

No? Then I have no reason to believe that it wasn't random, no unifying factor to believe it wasn't random, and no pattern to follow which suggests it wasn't random. At what point would I say "Maybe this isn't random?" You have yet to say that simple thing.

How do you know? You literally have no idea lol...wtf are you smoking bro? I wish to just for a day, to be as ignorant as you are lol. Would be amazing to walk around in la la land thinking i'm right just because I said it.... lmao.....

[Kaver]

No, it isn't. Both player power AND progression would be affected by loot being bugged.

It absolutely could not wait for a patch. Entire groups could be screwed in the world first race by a loot bug. Even if it only affected a handful of people, if it screwed the race there would be hell to pay, and Blizzard knows it.

That's not true at all. The system could potentially be bugged right now and the overall outcome isn't severe. It's absolutely something that could take Blizzard time to fix like many other bugs. In the beginning of Shadowlands there was bug that stopped people from progressing their covenants and these weren't all fixed even a month after the release. So to assume they would fix a bug with the great vault right away is just naive.

[Yakut]

Again, don't need to. Did anyone of my class get the same items? Did anyone of my race get the same items?

No? Then I have no reason to believe that it wasn't random, no unifying factor to believe it wasn't random, and no pattern to follow which suggests it wasn't random. At what point would I say "Maybe this isn't random?" You have yet to say that simple thing.

I haven't used my own statement as evidence a single time. It's called "giving examples." You're exceptionally bad at giving them, so maybe you don't know what they are, I guess.

You both are just ranting back and forth to each other. The fact is neither of you has concrete evidence for a bug or against a bug. You're making assumptions. You asked if either statement required evidence to prove or disprove and thought that yours was the only one that didn't require evidence. You're both wrong: BOTH statements require evidence if you're really going to prove or disprove a hypothesis.

The reality is simple. None of us can prove or disprove anything. All we can do is respond with anecdotal evidence which may or may not be remotely accurate. The people who have the power to look behind the curtain to see what really happened isn't anyone on this thread, it's Blizzard.

A sample set of 15 people responding on a thread is not even a statistical blip with the numbers of player accounts in this scenario to give you any accurate indication of anything.

I tried posting this and the system ate my post, so I'll add it here:

What kind of Coding do they use in the great vault, i don't get it.

With my Horde monk first 3 items i got were all bracers, then 3 helmets in a row, now 3 pants
With my Horde Paladin first 3 item i got were all bracers, then 3 times the same trinket, then 3 breastplates

now i leveled a Alliance Paladin and today i opened my first great vault: Bracers


What a coincidence. What are the odds?

Since only one person has attempted to give you a partial answer, I will give you a full one operating under the assumption that there aren't any rules which add or subtract items from the list for whatever reason (it is as flawed and as correct as any other weird answer I have seen here).

In a mathematical system, as someone with development experience already pointed out in this thread, odds are calculable. They do not, as someone attempted to suggest, indicate the influence of the previous "dice roll" but simply calculate the odds of something occurring.

This was taught in pre-algebra to me in middle school decades ago and I still remember it (not sure why this stumps people).

The method of calculating the odds of something is relatively simple: (The number of numbers that can show up on the dice roll (1 since a dice can only show one face up at any point) / the number of possible outcomes [or faces of the dice]) ^ Iterations [or times you rolled the dice]

Let's start with a simple example. You have a quarter and it has 2 sides: Heads and Tails. If you flip this coin 6 times, what are the odds it will always land on heads?

(1/2) ^ 6 = 1/64

Since all tails is an equal probability, it too is 1/64. That means, with inductive and deductive reasoning, that the odds of something other than all heads or all tails is 62/64.

It doesn't guarantee the outcome - it simply tells you the odds.

Now, let's go into a more specific example. Let's go through the number of options available in your example.

How many slots are in this scenario as possible drops? (I'm going to increase the number as I go just to show you how many options)

Head - 1
Necklace - 2
Shoulders - 3
Cape - 4
Chest - 5
Bracers - 6
Gloves - 7
Belt - 8
Pants - 9
Boots - 10
Main Hand token - 11
Offhand Token - 12
Ring 1 - 13
Ring 2 - 14
Trinket 1 - 15
Trinket 2 - 16

That's 16 slots to fill, right? So, it rather depends on how they run the scenario. Either they said rings and trinkets can drop 2/16 times or 1/14 (removing duplicate rings and trinkets). Since we do not know the answer for sure on that, I will provide the calculations for both.

In this scenario (14 slots vs 16), the odds that this could have occurred to you (receiving the same item for the slot three times in a row) are:
1/14^3: 1/2744 to have that specific combination come up each time (there are 2744 combinations in this scenario). 14/2744 attempts could have the same slot (head, head, head - or cloak, cloak, cloak). The odds are 2730/2744 outcomes would be a mix of slots instead of the same one each time.

It's better odds than you get in Vegas.

Okay, let's assume they did something like give you twice the chance for rings and necklaces (16 slots vs 14):

1/16^3 = 1/4096 to have that specific combination come up each time (there are 4096 combinations in this scenario)

It also means that the other 16 slots being the same in 3 rolls have the same probability. 16/4096 attempts could have the same slot (head, head, head - or cloak, cloak, cloak). The odds are 4080/4096 outcomes would be a mix of slots instead of the same one each time.

Either way, the odds are not unknowable and they're not even impossible. They're just unlikely.

With millions of players around the world, it is sure to have happened to a few people for sure.

[Kaver]

It picking 3 unrelated items DOES mean it's completely random for certain.

No. It. Doesn't...

[Yakut]

A 1 post account that just so happens to restate the other person's opinion... Hmm, non suspicious at all, especially since the other person was definitely trolling and you instead chose to respond to me.

You should try harder, Kaver.

Actually, I am not Kaver or anyone else on this thread to my knowledge. I created this account because my 13 year old account went inactive and got deleted.
Settle down.

Math is simple and knowable. If your best rebuttal against math is to suggest I am someone already posting in this thread, you failed to support your argument.

[Kaver]

Again: If it affects ONE person, it affects EVERYONE, and thus is a severe problem. If loot is bugged, it cannot be non-severe.

Of course it can. It depends on the degree of the impact. And everyone knows that Blizzard don't always fix bugs right away.

[Yakut]

Mhm. I'm sure.



1) Your math was added after my post
2) I didn't argue against your math
3) My post never even went into math

Actually, I tried to post it pages ago (4 by now) and MMOC says it is there but obviously isn't. Which is less fun than it sounds.

Nonetheless, your posts are filled with as many assumptions as those you rebut. Stick to the facts and your posts will support themselves. Add assumptions and you become worse than the people you argue against. That's all I have done in my post because math speaks for itself.

[Yakut]

What a coincidence.



My "assumptions" are examples which have played out in game for me, and my friends characters.

So you know. Do with that information what you will. Your math literally just describes my own example with numbers, so I don't know what you expect out of me Kaver.

- - - Updated - - -



Loot's degree of impact is instantly SIGNIFICANTLY higher than most other bugs. Loot affects EVERYTHING.

You denying that doesn't make it not true. Every character in game needs loot drops. Loot drops being bugged would be severe no matter how small a degree of impact.

Well, I'm not Kaver, so that's one incorrect assumption already shot down. What I have stated in each response to you is the absolute truth. You assume I am lying, which is another incorrect assumption. How many more will you demonstrate with just me? How many have you already demonstrated in your responses?

You didn't actually provide any evidence (be it math or otherwise) to support your assumptions. You just assumed. And that's fine, humans have to assume a lot of the time. But, as you are eloquently proving without intending to with regards to me, assumption doesn't mean fact. You've been wrong each time about me.

[Kaver]

Loot drops being bugged would be severe no matter how small a degree of impact.

Doesn't mean Blizzard fix it right away if people don't complain about it.

[Yakut]

And since clearly people have complained about it and it's not "fixed..."

Not bugged. Proven.

- - - Updated - - -



Oh, but you could be. Until I am able to look behind the screen and confirm 100% that you aren't, there's the possibility that you could be, right?

So therefore, you are Kaver. And I need no evidence to say so.

Basically, you have no point other than "I said so". It's a sad rebuttal. Watching you and Kaver post so close to each other, am I to assume you both are the same person trolling the forums? It wouldn't be unheard of, I suppose. But, unlike you, I won't make the same assumption.

No, you basically fall back into the trope of "I know more than you because I said so" and that's as laughable as it is sad. I tried to help you shore up your rebuttal and you essentially just went and pulled a third-grader response instead. Unimpressive.

[Kaver]

And since clearly people have complained about it and it's not "fixed..."

Not bugged. Proven.

Legendaries drop was bugged for a long time in Legion and that was very severe. So no, Blizzard don’t always fix bugs right away.

- - - Updated - - -

Basically, you have no point other than "I said so". It's a sad rebuttal. Watching you and Kaver post so close to each other, am I to assume you both are the same person trolling the forums? It wouldn't be unheard of, I suppose. But, unlike you, I won't make the same assumption.

No, you basically fall back into the trope of "I know more than you because I said so" and that's as laughable as it is sad. I tried to help you shore up your rebuttal and you essentially just went and pulled a third-grader response instead. Unimpressive.

So now I’m both you and Fleugen.. jesus

[Yakut]

Legendaries drop was bugged for a long time in Legion and that was very severe. So no, Blizzard don’t always fix bugs right away.

It would be best for your case if you provide more statements with substance because Fleugen clearly won't. It is better to battle with facts than feelings. All people can do with rebuttal of facts is respond with feelings if they can't support their argument. Or, occasionally, "because I said so."

[Aucald]

Let's drop the rolling argument about whether or not it's a bug, which is completely unproveable from our standpoint, and return to the original conversation concerning the Vault's randomness or lack thereof.

[Yakut]

That'd be a silly assumption, considering he and I are arguing against each other, but you're more than welcome to, Kaver.

I moreso did so because you just so happened to jump into a conversation, rebuke us both, agree with him, but only respond to me. Which you are STILL doing.



Literally do know more than you, but not just because I say so. Because I'm willing to look at evidence and draw a conclusion rather than just say "well we don't know and can't, so the possibility is there!"

No, the possibility isn't always there just because you said so. And it's kind of laughable that you'd say that while rebuking me about "because I said so" that I didn't even say.

So, I always have to respond to everyone in a thread. Not just the one who is jumping up and down making more assumptions than the people he is responding to, is that it?

Come now, you can do better than that. Literally all of your assumptions about me have been and continue to be wrong. Yet you stamp your foot in protest that you are right because you have to be. You're not. Seriously. Look at our sentence structure, grammar, logic, and method of conveying ideas. I'm as much him as I am you. Stop gaslighting and start thinking.

- - - Updated - - -

Let's drop the rolling argument about whether or not it's a bug, which is completely unproveable from our standpoint, and return to the original conversation concerning the Vault's randomness or lack thereof.

Thank you.