Great Vault, Random? No Way

[Nite92]

In BFA, I rolled the same Azerite shoulders off the vendor 6 times in a row.

RNG is RNG

NO RNG IS PREDICTABLE AND BLIZZARD IS LYING TO US.

On a more serious note, some variance protection would be nice. Especially with PL that should be possible.

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Hmm ive been a bunch of lotto tickets in a row.. and none of them were winners. What a co-incidence? Random? No way!!!!

That is just a really bad comparison. Getting 3x the same item is around a 6.66..% chance. Losing the lottery is like a 99.999999999% chance.

But yes, probability and common sense do not mix very well, so claiming some random system is flawed by personal experience with such a small sample size cannot lead you to any conclusion. (and I doubt that OP is 100% accurate, I mean who wouldnt start screenshotting that after it happened the 2nd time).

[Nzx]

Making sure numbers are random doesn't mean memorization. For rand, it requires an arbitrary seed (doesn't need to be random, most of the time, it's system time). rand() will not roll same set of numbers, even if you roll it once a week so long as its properly seeded. And we are talking about the crappiest RNG. Looks like that post has gone well over your head yet you dare to tell me I should know my shit. Your initial sentence is a facepalm material, I have been rolling the same 3 numbers for months (bracer, gloves, back).

Anyone with a half brain who did bit of programming would tell you this isn't RNG.

Posts like this are my absolute favourite thing about MMO-C. I love watching people be so absolutely committed to their position and aggressive about defending it by attacking others while being completely wrong. It's fantastic.

You have literally the exact same chance of hitting 10 items in the same slot back to back to back as you do of hitting 10 items in entirely different slots. That is how probability works. If you roll a 20-sided die x number of times, the likelihood that you roll 1 through 20 and back down to 1 again in perfect order is exactly the same as the chance that you roll any other combination of numbers. The outcome of any one roll has absolutely zero impact on the outcome of any following roll. This is probability at it's most basic. What you and many other posters in this thread are describing is known as the "Gambler's Fallacy", as in "I've lost a million times in a row I have to win soon!".

The only way you can disagree with this is if you actually believe that Blizzard have hard-coded the Vault's RNG to shaft you specifically, leaving countless other players totally unaffected. If that is what you believe, then I can safely put you in a box with flat earthers and ignore you, because l o l.

[rrayy]

I hate the design that The Vault seems to be the main gearing outlet for most people. It's really lame.

We got it through to the devs to "let loot be loot" now if we can just say to them "let upgrades drop from enemies" we're golden.

Upgrades do drop from enemies. YOu do realize that the items that drop from teh vault are the same loot that drops from the enemies right?

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It is a complete hogwash when people say 'RNG is RNG'. It is what you have been told that it is 'Random'. The bean counters do not rely on pure randomness to achieve maximum engagement considering the current SL user attrition rate. This is the same way it works in a casino with slot machines, sure it is random with a finger on the scale tipped in one direction, so to speak.

Unless you have looked at the code and can first-hand verify it is completely random, then please quit spouting out nonsense. In addition there was an occurrence in WOW history where the players called BS on the 'randomness' of some drops, enough players observed this behavior and Blizz said it was indeed a 'bug'.

That goes both ways, Unless you have looked at the code and can first-hand verify it isn't random. then please quit spouting out nonsense. You are guilty of what you accuse him of.

[Kuntantee]

You have literally the exact same chance of hitting 10 items in the same slot back to back to back as you do of hitting 10 items in entirely different slots.

Someone needs to re-study basic probability.

1 / 10 * ... * 1 / 10 vs 1 * 9/10 * 8/10 * ... 1/10

Rather ironic that you opened this crap with the following. I'd like to return the favor.

Posts like this are my absolute favourite thing about MMO-C. I love watching people be so absolutely committed to their position and aggressive about defending it by attacking others while being completely wrong. It's fantastic.

If you are a high-school dropout, you should be a bit less bold in your statements.

[Myradin]

In addition there was an occurrence in WOW history where the players called BS on the 'randomness' of some drops, enough players observed this behavior and Blizz said it was indeed a 'bug'.

Okay so where's the hundreds, if thousands of examples of this happening? One guy with 3 times and a bunch of people claiming there must be an evil conspiracy to make certain players unlucky is not good evidence.

[Kuntantee]

You do understand that getting the same item slot multiple times in a row doesn’t mean you rolled the same number, though? If I get a belt from ToP and the next week a belt from DoS, then that’s not the same roll. That’s what I meant with memorization. The algorithm doesn’t memorize the slot you got in a previous week and tries to avoid that slot. That’s not how it works.

I do understand that but occasionally, I should have seen the remaining 10+ slots, even if the drop chance of items are applied for GV, which is probably the case. I also did some m0s in the first few weeks of Shadowlands. There were simply more variety there, in fact way more variety. GV is not RNG, if anything, it acts like a non-seeded rand(). Same crap every time.

[Edward Wu]

Upgrades do drop from enemies. YOu do realize that the items that drop from teh vault are the same loot that drops from the enemies right?

You really have to wonder what the motivation behind such blatant disingenuousness from people like this is? Puzzling shit.

[huth]

I do understand that but occasionally, I should have seen the remaining 10+ slots, even if the drop chance of items are applied for GV, which is probably the case. I also did some m0s in the first few weeks of Shadowlands. There were simply more variety there, in fact way more variety. GV is not RNG, if anything, it acts like a non-seeded rand(). Same crap every time.

How does that show it isn't random? It only shows you're unlucky. Not having streaks is a hint that something isn't truly random.

Your M0 drop variety could easily be due to both bosses having more limited loot tables and the sample size being bigger.

[Nzx]

Someone needs to re-study basic probability.

1 / 10 * ... * 1 / 10 vs 1 * 9/10 * 8/10 * ... 1/10

Rather ironic that you opened this crap with the following. I'd like to return the favor.

If you are a high-school dropout, you should be a bit less bold in your statements.

Lmao what the ever-loving fuck are you talking about? Are you seriously trying to tell me that you believe you are more likely to roll the sequence "1,2,3,4,5,6" on a six-sided die than you are to roll "1,1,1,1,1,1"?

I can safely put you in a box with flat earthers and ignore you

[Shaetha]

I think the subtitle of this thread should be, "Another example of how confirmation bias makes people think the world is out to get them."

[schwarzkopf]

As an exercise in futility - I went to RANDOM.ORG and generated 10 sets of 20 random numbers between 1 and 9.

89583336671918669418
19487727726575316548
12423276527719291664
15564437378452589122
77445861357144522235
57963734889675368295
14341446182317552137
36888423458289728364
57716666466188287115
55342892687581743568

So 1 of these players would be screaming 'non random' at their bad luck of 6666466.

Of course - there are WAY more than 10 players, and more than 9 items to pick from - but the point remains.

[exochaft]

Nowhere has Blizzard stated that every slot has the same chance to drop.

On the opposite side of things, Blizz has openly stated that there is not equal weighting for loot. For example, weapon and trinkets have a much lower chance to drop than other pieces of loot in general, and it's by design as Blizz has stated in the past that they want certain items dropping (specifically trinkets and weapons) to be more exciting. I would not be surprised if this extends to the weekly Vault at all.

Now there are other forms of influence on the weekly Vault outcomes that could alter how RNG the loot you get actually is. One that I've seen debated is if doing certain M+ dungeons will weight items from that dungeon in your favor. From keeping track of my loot and dungeons I've done over this season across multiple characters, there may be some truth to this. Now it's not guaranteed by a long shot, but if I do ten runs of one specific M+ dungeon, it averages out to almost 2 pieces of loot in my Vault are from that one dungeon I ran. A few times I got all 3 pieces from the dungeon, usually two, almost guaranteed one, and rarely 0 in my Vault. In general, the weighting of getting 1-2 pieces from the one dungeon I ran was way higher than what the random chance would be, but the only way to be certain is if Blizz actually came out and said it.

Another aspect of discussion if there's any influence on whether you get the exact same item every week, which should be much rarer than getting the same slot (not necessarily the same item though). In conjunction to the data I gathered above, I did get repeat items from M+, sometimes 3 weeks in a row. RNG is RNG, but if running a dungeon influences the loot table to some degree in the weekly Vault, doing the same dungeon frequently should increase the chance of getting the same item multiple times versus complete randomness. I'd be curious if people who have experiences streaks of being offered the same item multiple times in a row were actually running the same dungeon(s) frequently, as that's not an uncommon practice (who wouldn't just spam Mists/Halls keys to get their weekly done? ) .

Bottom line is we'll never know unless Blizz tells us. Back in Legion, most people thought that their luck was bad, RNG was just RNG, etc. when it came to getting Legendary items to drop... until Blizz admitted there was a 4 Legendary soft-cap (I think Method asked them about it, don't recall, been a while). The inherent issue with the player actually knowing if something is working right or not is that we don't know what to expect, as it's very hard to prove a system is bugged when you don't know exactly how it's supposed to work. When it comes to the weekly Vault, we don't know what the initial conditions are for what loot we are offered beyond "doing X dungeons gives you Y choices" and that you cannot be offered the exact same item twice in the same Vault week.

[kukkamies]

Lmao what the ever-loving fuck are you talking about? Are you seriously trying to tell me that you believe you are more likely to roll the sequence "1,2,3,4,5,6" on a six-sided die than you are to roll "1,1,1,1,1,1"?

The problem here isn't a specific roll of just "1,2,3,4,5,6". Entire different slots are also "4,1,2,3..." "2,1,3,4..." etc accepted. So it's different chance for entirely different slots and all same as Kuntantee wrote. And math is just as he wrote it.
As he said.. Could be less bold of the conclusions.

[SoundOfGuns]

But can we be 100% certain that Blizzards random number generator isn't flawed in some ways?

It isn't exactly... flawed. It is working as an RNG works... and that in itself is the issue. While RNG does imply randomness and equal chances, there still is a very good likelyhood you will stumble into that group of people who will get the same results frequently. Thats just how that sometimes works. Some results even in an RNG have a higher likelyhood... Besides that a true RNG doesnt exist, as an RNG is always a number of calculations from different, existing values, often in the past depending on GPU time and clocking.

And thats why i call developers like Blizzard lazy who evidently only focus on RNG and do not give it a controlling entity. Did a player get Bracers the week before? Was it the only item? Did they PICK said Bracers? All such little processes would have to do is shifting the possibilities to get those again one or two percent to the right or left and it would probably fix the issue that more people have than should ever be the case. However, Blizzard did not do that. Sure, i dont KNOW if they did not, but if they did this would happen not half as often as it does... and they would not make such a big fuzz about it when they for once got off their asses to implement a fallback for players who keep having bad luck with getting loot at all, as they did a whole twice in the past...

So its not like its not RNG. Its just a lazy, unmoderated type most likely.

[Vynx]

I love they retards who keep saying random is random, but have no idea how probability works.
In short: there's no way the rewards are random. It's just Blizz feeding us bs.

[schwarzkopf]

I love they retards who keep saying random is random, but have no idea how probability works.

I know how probability works, and yes - random is random.

The problem is that people don't fathom how randomness interacts with large sample sizes.

They assume that one person describing a rare event isn't random because they forget that there has been millions of experiments generating the output.

People need to head to random.org and check out how random works.

I hope that helps with your error.

[Nzx]

The problem here isn't a specific roll of just "1,2,3,4,5,6". Entire different slots are also "4,1,2,3..." "2,1,3,4..." etc accepted. So it's different chance for entirely different slots and all same as Kuntantee wrote. And math is just as he wrote it.
As he said.. Could be less bold of the conclusions.

You're both just looking at the situation wrong. If you and a friend both roll dice, and yours come up 1,1,1,1,1,1 and his come up 1,2,3,4,5,6, he hasn't been any more or less lucky than you have. If you both play WoW and you get bracers six weeks in a row and he gets gear for six different slots, he hasn't been more or less lucky than you either, because none of the previous rolls have any bearing on the result of any of the following rolls.

You're looking at it as "90% chance to get anything except bracers" but not understanding that still doesn't make you any more or less likely in week one to get bracers than you are after 20 weeks of getting bracers. I don't know how many analogies it's going to take but if you flip a coin 9 times and get heads every time, and then bet your house it'll flip tails because it couldn't possibly roll heads ten times in a row that's crazythen you deserve to lose.

It sucks on the individual level, I'm sure, to get the same result 10 times in a row. It's just not statistically significant in any way. All I'm saying is that the statistical likelihood of a person who goes 14 weeks getting the same slot every time vs someone who gets 14 different slots is exactly the same.

[VinceVega]

I love they retards who keep saying random is random, but have no idea how probability works.
In short: there's no way the rewards are random. It's just Blizz feeding us bs.

Well then it was nearly always BiS bullshit for me^^

Or.... was it chance?

[Veggie50]

Yeah I don't think they're random either. I think some items have a much higher chance of dropping than others. I also think some weeks favour some keys specifically. I watch a paladin tank's youtube channel (I'm also pala tank) and he shows his chest opening every week and the majority of time we have the same options. I have also seen the exact same chest armour 3 times and stuff like that. I could still use items in about 5 slots (which is quite a lot), but I have never gotten an item for those slots in this whole season. In the last month or so I have chosen the currency option because there is nothing I can choose that I don't already have. Last item I got was the same ring that was 226 instead of my very old 223.
Blizzard has been known to manipulate "luck" in many instances so I have no doubt that the drops do not have an equal chance. Even in raids, some items have a higher chance to drop while others have a lower one (like weapon tokens - they mentioned increasing their respective drop chance in a patch).

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Nowhere has Blizzard stated that every slot has the same chance to drop. Only that items drop from a specific pool.
Also, btw, the chance of rolling the same number twice in a row is not the same as rolling different numbers. For example, if you have 10 slots to roll for:
1. first time you have equal chance to get each, which is 1/10; say you get wrists
2. second time, the chance to get wrists again is not 1/10; it's 1/10*1/10;

You’re incorrect, you’re applying gamblers phallacy.

If the chances of bracers dropping is 1/10, then the chances of the next drop being a bracer is still 1/10. The chances of those happening in sequence are lower yes, but the the first drop does not influence chancew of second drop.

Imagine rolling a six sided die 5 times, and it comes up 6 for all 5 times. The next time you roll a die, the chances of it rolling 6 are still 1/6.

[schwarzkopf]

Imagine rolling a six sided die 5 times, and it comes up 6 for all 5 times. The next time you roll a die, the chances of it rolling 6 are still 1/6.

... and if ten thousand people each roll that die 5 times - there is a VERY VERY high chance one of them WILL get 6 five times.