Great Vault, Random? No Way

[FelPlague]

But can we be 100% certain that Blizzards random number generator isn't flawed in some ways?

because a random number generator is literally so fucking hilariously easy to make, you would have to assume the worst incompetence to imply they fucked it up

you can literally make a random number generator in 15 seconds worth of coding, with 0 chance at error

[schwarzkopf]

you can literally make a random number generator in 15 seconds worth of coding, with 0 chance at error

That's a pseudorandom number generator, however you can get hardware to allow development of real random numbers these days. https://www.random.org/ generates true random numbers.

Having said that - pseudorandom sequences are pretty damn good these days if you spend a few hours getting it right.

[kukkamies]

If you both play WoW and you get bracers six weeks in a row and he gets gear for six different slots, he hasn't been more or less lucky than you either, because none of the previous rolls have any bearing on the result of any of the following rolls.

This is easy with three numbers and two rolls. The possibilities are 1,1 1,2 1,3 2,1 2,2 2,3 3,1 3,2 3,3. If you only get 1s the chance is 1/9. If you get unique numbers the chance is 6/9. Unique ones is way way more likely
If it's a specific one like you know it's 3,1 or 1,1 then it's same of course. But here we don't know the order, it can be any order and any items

All I'm saying is that the statistical likelihood of a person who goes 14 weeks getting the same slot every time vs someone who gets 14 different slots is exactly the same.

This is not true at all. If you roll a dice then getting the same number 6 times in a row is a lot more unlikely than getting all 6 different numbers. You can check https://math.stackexchange.com/quest...ice-are-rolled and https://stats.stackexchange.com/ques...times-in-a-row
The end result is widely different. 6 times same in a row is around 0.1% is it? When distinct faces is 1,5%.

[deenman]

But can we be 100% certain that Blizzards random number generator isn't flawed in some ways?

i guess it can be posible for some characters to suffer from some weird bug/glitch,we see this all the time in wow,a friend of mine did a bg and he got the achvment for a different bg for example

a guy once posted about not getting any item in heroic dungeons for a few days

[Wuusah]

That's a pseudorandom number generator, however you can get hardware to allow development of real random numbers these days. https://www.random.org/ generates true random numbers.

Having said that - pseudorandom sequences are pretty damn good these days if you spend a few hours getting it right.

Even pseudo randomness is good enough for a weekly reward chest in a freaking video game. On average the player will get a bunch of different slots after a few weeks or months. It’s hilarious how people here who get the same slots multiple times in a row just can’t accept that they aren’t in the bulk of the bell curve but at the edge of it. Somehow it’s easier to accept a conspiracy against them instead of accepting bad luck.

I got my 226 scales trinket after months of playing and exactly one week after finally getting it to drop the very first time for me and upgrading it to 220. It’s funny how random stuff like this happens sometimes. But I’m not that stupid to think Blizzard intentionally messed with me in particular. I’m just a number to them.

[schwarzkopf]

Even pseudo randomness is good enough for a weekly reward chest in a freaking video game.

Sure.... pretty much what I said.

[Nzx]

This is not true at all. If you roll a dice then getting the same number 6 times in a row is a lot more unlikely than getting all 6 different numbers.

Come on, man. Say you want to roll 1 all six times on six rolls of a die:

Roll 1, 1/6 chance of 1
Roll 2, 1/6 chance of 1
...
Roll 6, 1/6 chance of 1
= 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 chance of your desired outcome.

Say you want to roll 1,2,3,4,5,6:

Roll 1, 1/6 chance of 1
Roll 2, 1/6 chance of 2
...
Roll 6, 1/6 chance of 6
= 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 chance of your desired outcome.

There are 720 possible outcomes, and each of them are exactly as likely as each other. If you picked any six numbers between 1 and 6 and I picked any six numbers between 1 and 6 and we rolled a die six times we both have exactly the same chance to "win".

What you're thinking of is a situation where you're choosing an outcome and you "win" when it doesn't occur. Think flipping a coin twice and betting it won't flip tails both times. You would expect a 75% chance to win that bet, because H/H, H/T, and T/H are all wins. The probability of any individual flip being 50% is still fixed, though, and that's the same with the great vault.

[kukkamies]

If you picked any six numbers between 1 and 6 and I picked any six numbers between 1 and 6 and we rolled a die six times we both have exactly the same chance to "win".

That is true yes.

What you're thinking of is a situation where you're choosing an outcome and you "win" when it doesn't occur. Think flipping a coin twice and betting it won't flip tails both times. You would expect a 75% chance to win that bet, because H/H, H/T, and T/H are all wins. The probability of any individual flip being 50% is still fixed, though, and that's the same with the great vault.

Yep and this is more like we win when it doesn't occur. We don't want all wrists. We want all unique items. There is no one we are competing with, there isn't a single winning line we want. We want any line that has all unique numbers. Of course a single specific line is the same. But we don't want a single specific line. We are happy with "bracelet, chest, trinket". "Weapon, head, boots". "Neck, shoulders, ring" etc. We want entirely different slots as items. Not the specific "bracelet chest trinket" only.

You have literally the exact same chance of hitting 10 items in the same slot back to back to back as you do of hitting 10 items in entirely different slots.

10 items in entirely different slots. We don't know what slots and in what order. We don't want a specific "wrists, legs, helm, trinket, weapon..." order from great vault like the "1,2,3,4,5,6". Any order is fine. We are happy as long as it's different numbers in it. same slot is 1,1,1 2,2,2 3,3,3. Different slots is 1,2,3 1,3,2 2,1,3 2,3,1 3,1,2 3,2,1. Getting different slots is a lot more likely than all same.

[rrayy]

You really have to wonder what the motivation behind such blatant disingenuousness from people like this is? Puzzling shit.

How is it disingenuous? Pieces that I got from thhe great vault were the carbon copies of gear that dropped in the raid, name and all. This lie is claiming that loot only drops from the great vault and that it is the only place you can get it. Not the case when the loot in the great vault comes from the raid boss loot tables.

[FelPlague]

This is not true at all. If you roll a dice then getting the same number 6 times in a row is a lot more unlikely than getting all 6 different numbers. You can check

No, literally every single combination of numbers has the exact same chance of being rolled. being the same or a different number does not magically make it more likely to be rolled


if we roll a 10 sided die, every single side has a 1 in 10 chance of being rolled
rolling a 10 does not magically make rolling 10 again less likely, every side is still a 1 in 10 chance.


the odds for rollin 1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8/9/10 are the EXACT same as rolling 10/10/10/10/10/10/10/10/10/10, and that has the exact same chance of rolling 10/9/8/7/6/5/4/3/2/1
you just failed what is it.... 5th grade math you learn probability?

the only time getting something multiple times is less likely is if you remove the result
you have a bag with 2 blue and 2 red in it. that means you have a 50 chance of pulling a red, and 50 chance of pulling a blue. but if you pull a red, then take that red out, suddenly you have a 33% chance to get red, and 66% chance to get blue.

- - - Updated - - -

That is true yes.

Yep and this is more like we win when it doesn't occur. We don't want all wrists. We want all unique items. There is no one we are competing with, there isn't a single winning line we want. We want any line that has all unique numbers. Of course a single specific line is the same. But we don't want a single specific line. We are happy with "bracelet, chest, trinket". "Weapon, head, boots". "Neck, shoulders, ring" etc. We want entirely different slots as items. Not the specific "bracelet chest trinket" only.


10 items in entirely different slots. We don't know what slots and in what order. We don't want a specific "wrists, legs, helm, trinket, weapon..." order from great vault like the "1,2,3,4,5,6". Any order is fine. We are happy as long as it's different numbers in it. same slot is 1,1,1 2,2,2 3,3,3. Different slots is 1,2,3 1,3,2 2,1,3 2,3,1 3,1,2 3,2,1. Getting different slots is a lot more likely than all same.

no, getting different slots is not more likely then getting all of the same slot, thats literally not how probabiltiy works.



your ods of getting 8/8/8/8/8/8/8 is the exact same as 1/2/3/4/5/6/7/8
so the odds of getting pants every single time is the same as getting gloves.
the only thing that effects it is that there may be more "options" in one then another, there may be 10 pairs of pants and 15 pairs of gloves, which means you have a hgiher chance to get gloves then pants, but each individual item has the exact same chance as another.

[kukkamies]

no, getting different slots is not more likely then getting all of the same slot, thats literally not how probabiltiy works.

This is not a single roll vs a single roll. This is multiple possible right values. Getting 88888 is more unlikely than getting 8/anything but 8/anything but earlier 2/anything but earlier 3/etc..
When tossing 50 coins, would you bet that there is at least one of each item or only all heads? It's obvious that you cannot get 50 heads in a row even if you tossed the coin for years.

Gambler's fallacy really has gone too far. Even places where it's not a thing people think it is. Or maybe people get stuck in 5th grade math and are unable to understand probability past it?

[Kuntantee]

Lmao what the ever-loving fuck are you talking about? Are you seriously trying to tell me that you believe you are more likely to roll the sequence "1,2,3,4,5,6" on a six-sided die than you are to roll "1,1,1,1,1,1"?

You did not mention any order. You said rolling completely different rolls vs rolling the same thing have the exact same probability. I have shown you that it's not. Now shoo.

[huth]

No, literally every single combination of numbers has the exact same chance of being rolled. being the same or a different number does not magically make it more likely to be rolled

You're talking about two different things. kukkamies is correct that getting all 6 values is more likely than getting the same value 6 times. However, getting those 6 values in a specific order is not.

It's obvious that you cannot get 50 heads in a row even if you tossed the coin for years.

Wrong. It is unlikely. Nonetheless, it could happen within the first 50 tosses unless the coin cannot fall on heads, in which case it would truly be impossible to get the result ever.

[kukkamies]

Wrong. It is unlikely. Nonetheless, it could happen within the first 50 tosses unless the coin cannot fall on heads, in which case it would truly be impossible to get the result ever.

It's possible in the same way winning the lottery twice in a row is yeah. Don't think anyone expects it to happen

[Temp name]

Come on, man. Say you want to roll 1 all six times on six rolls of a die:

Roll 1, 1/6 chance of 1
Roll 2, 1/6 chance of 1
...
Roll 6, 1/6 chance of 1
= 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 chance of your desired outcome.

Say you want to roll 1,2,3,4,5,6:

Roll 1, 1/6 chance of 1
Roll 2, 1/6 chance of 2
...
Roll 6, 1/6 chance of 6
= 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 x 1/6 chance of your desired outcome.

There are 720 possible outcomes, and each of them are exactly as likely as each other. If you picked any six numbers between 1 and 6 and I picked any six numbers between 1 and 6 and we rolled a die six times we both have exactly the same chance to "win".

What you're thinking of is a situation where you're choosing an outcome and you "win" when it doesn't occur. Think flipping a coin twice and betting it won't flip tails both times. You would expect a 75% chance to win that bet, because H/H, H/T, and T/H are all wins. The probability of any individual flip being 50% is still fixed, though, and that's the same with the great vault.

Yeah, but that only works if you want the exact result 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

If you just want all unique rolls then you have:
roll 1: 6/6 chance, everything is unique
roll 2: 5/6 chance, only one result would duplicate
..
roll 6 1/6 chance, only one result wouldn't be duplicate

which is a LOT more likely than getting any specific result.

[huth]

It's possible in the same way winning the lottery twice in a row is yeah. Don't think anyone expects it to happen

On the other hand, given the number of humans that have played the lottery, it's rather likely it already happened to somebody. Which is relevant to the issue with the Vault, since having a few repeats in the Vault isn't that unlikely that it can't have happened to somebody.

I somewhat doubt anybody who plays the lottery expects it to not happen for the right reason, either... if they understood probability, they wouldn't be playing.

[kukkamies]

I don't think it has tbh. Especially one that would require similar odds to this 50 coin tosses all heads. This is 1 in 10^16, it is completely absurd odds. 10^16 divided by people on earth 7 * 10^9 leaves around 1 400 000 tries for every person. That would take years even if every single person on earth was doing it.

A scractchie ticket has happened on google, but that isn't what I'd think as lottery. It was only one in 200million occurrence, very small compared to the these scales.

I still play lottery for the tiny chance it might happen. It's much more exciting than safe stocks or p2p loans.

[huth]

I don't think it has tbh. Especially one that would require similar odds to this 50 coin tosses all heads. This is 1 in 10^16, it is completely absurd odds. 10^16 divided by people on earth 7 * 10^9 leaves around 1 400 000 tries for every person. That would take years even if every single person on earth was doing it.

A scractchie ticket has happened on google, but that isn't what I'd think as lottery. It was only one in 200million occurrence, very small compared to the these scales.

I still play lottery for the tiny chance it might happen. It's much more exciting than safe stocks or p2p loans.

Most lotteries have way better odds of winning than that. Also, that's only about 1 in 10^15, so your theoretical players only need 140,000 tries.

And the majority of players spends more than they win, especially if somebody makes it big. The total sum of winnings is less than the combined price of tickets sold.

[kukkamies]

Most lotteries have way better odds of winning than that. Also, that's only about 1 in 10^15, so your theoretical players only need 140,000 tries.

And the majority of players spends more than they win, especially if somebody makes it big. The total sum of winnings is less than the combined price of tickets sold.

What do you mean 1 in 10^15? 140 000 still sounds like it'd take years... The one million is more like decades.

Yeah the 1 in 200 million was winning twice in a row. It was a small scratchie. Not a real lottery where just winning once is closer to one in ten million. That twice in a row gets to impossible levels.

Of course almost everyone spends more than they win with gambling. If winnings was bigger it'd be a charity and not gambling.

[Kuntantee]

Yeah, but that only works if you want the exact result 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

If you just want all unique rolls then you have:
roll 1: 6/6 chance, everything is unique
roll 2: 5/6 chance, only one result would duplicate
..
roll 6 1/6 chance, only one result wouldn't be duplicate

which is a LOT more likely than getting any specific result.

He has been corrected many times by different people. In the very first page, he makes the same ignorant claim that rolling same numbers has the same probability of rolling different each time. That was 15 pages ago. I'd stop trying to explain, he probably isn't capable of grasping basic probability.