KGB Hijacks Flight to Arrest Journalist.

[Easo]

So that threat about "we are gonna stop blocking migrants" seems to be happening. Belarus is now doing the sneaky and lets people pass into Lithuania, then clears up the evidence. Saw in news today a couple of surveilance videos from Lithuanian border guards showing uniformed dudes on the border erasing footprints. This corresponds with recent reports of highly increased illegal border crossing count from Belarus into Lithuania.

I guess this is the best Lukashenko's regime can do ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Gorsameth]

So that threat about "we are gonna stop blocking migrants" seems to be happening. Belarus is now doing the sneaky and lets people pass into Lithuania, then clears up the evidence. Saw in news today a couple of surveilance videos from Lithuanian border guards showing uniformed dudes on the border erasing footprints. This corresponds with recent reports of highly increased illegal border crossing count from Belarus into Lithuania.

I guess this is the best Lukashenko's regime can do ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Time to close the border I guess.

[Shalcker]

In no way is failure guaranteed.

What do you think was last success, and what it would take to repeat it today?

[Easo]

More stupid stuff from Lukashenko - Belarus now has a National Unity day, celebrated on... 17th September, the day when USSR attacked Poland in 1939. Poland's Foreign Ministry is pissed.

[Shalcker]

More stupid stuff from Lukashenko - Belarus now has a National Unity day, celebrated on... 17th September, the day when USSR attacked Poland in 1939. Poland's Foreign Ministry is pissed.

He also snubbed new US ambassador (agreed upon during Trump era) and barred her from entering Belarus.

[Easo]

He also snubbed new US ambassador (agreed upon during Trump era) and barred her from entering Belarus.

Potato Fuhrer is a moron, what else is to be said... How long until the next bowing to Russia in an attempt to clinch more cash?

[caervek]

That's the dumbest argument yet.

It's not really a dumb argument.

Iraq and Libya had their dictators removed by the west, and many Syrians are trying to get rid of theirs. All three countries are worse off today for it.

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Potato Fuhrer is a moron, what else is to be said... How long until the next bowing to Russia in an attempt to clinch more cash?

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if the jerk just flat out held a (totally not rigged) referendum on reunifying with Russia >.>

[Easo]

At this point I wouldn't be surprised if the jerk just flat out held a (totally not rigged) referendum on reunifying with Russia >.>

Never. He looses power, this is the last thing he will do if everything else fails.
Do note - you might not need to rig the referendum in Belarus (debatable, but still). I am also not sure Russians are gonna be very happy about that, it would make yet another money pit.

[Slant]

It's not really a dumb argument.

Iraq and Libya had their dictators removed by the west, and many Syrians are trying to get rid of theirs. All three countries are worse off today for it.

Today is obviously not the metric to measure this by. To get to the French Republic from Loius XIV. France had to go through Napoleon, too.

The problem is obviously "by the West". We should stop paying them any aid or interacting with these regimes and let their countries blow up in civil war to cleanse themselves. That's the only known method to work as we have seen in almost every country in Europe at some point in history. They have to have the opportunity to fuck themselves up big time before they realise how to do it right. As long as we keep "saving" them from the worst outcomes, they'll never change to anything that could be called a decent contributor to the global community.

[Shalcker]

The problem is obviously "by the West". We should stop paying them any aid or interacting with these regimes and let their countries blow up in civil war to cleanse themselves. That's the only known method to work as we have seen in almost every country in Europe at some point in history. They have to have the opportunity to fuck themselves up big time before they realise how to do it right. As long as we keep "saving" them from the worst outcomes, they'll never change to anything that could be called a decent contributor to the global community.

Your "aid" is often aimed at influencing cultural rather then material conditions - foreign culture that obviously clashes with their surrounding reality creating artificial conflict.
And where your aid goes into material stuff it often boils down to subsidies/risk reduction for your own industries ("investors") trying to get foothold there.

And as such kicking you out can improve rather then worsen dictatorial condition medium-term.

Baseline level for more or less competently managed countries (rather then "best performing ones") nowadays can be quite decent, and in no ways leads to revolts automatically.

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Meanwhile, Lukashenko starts to smuggle Iraqi migrants into EU:
Belarusian authorities started to smuggle illegal immigrants from Iraq to Europe. A video shows Lithuanians building a temporary camp for migrants coming from Belarus. Lithuania says a state of emergency could be declared if the situation gets worse. Meanwhile, we received information that Belarusian authorities have not only opened Belarus-Lithuania border for illegal immigrants from Iraq, but are actively involved in trafficking. The scheme involves Tsentrkurort travel company (controlled by Lukashenko) and Iraqi Airways. Hundreds of Iraqis arrive to Belarus every week. The number of flights from Baghdad to Minsk doubled in the last month (from 2 to 4 per week + they replaced Boeing 737 with a larger 777). At Minsk airport no one checks the Iraqis who booked with Tsentrkurort, they automatically get entry visas. Then they get to the border and Belarusian border guards help them to get to Lithuania. The service costs $3-6k. Middle Eastern students in Belarus say more and more people in Iraq and Syria are becoming aware of the new scheme and are planning to get to the EU via Belarus.

[Easo]

While he smuggles immigrants (there is now a new immigrant camp in Lithuania, they also report this started couple of weeks ago already) and I fully expect border to be closed/patrolled by military soon, they have paraded Protasevich in front of cameras again. It looks so fucking strange, but I guess old fart like Batjka likes the old style agitprop.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57473375

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So about the kidnapping - Ryanair has finally spoken - pilots were lied to that they were under the highest risk category and the bomb would explode if they tried to fly to Lithuania, via Mink ATC. Which said that "Ryanair was unreachable", when pilots asked for a call home.

The pilot of a flight that was diverted to Belarus, allowing the arrest of an opposition journalist, had been warned that a bomb would detonate if it continued to Lithuania, according to Ryanair's boss.

Michael O'Leary said the pilot tried to seek advice from the airline, but was given false excuses by officials that Ryanair was not answering the phone.

He called the incident "a premeditated breach" of global aviation rules.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57480835

[Shalcker]

So about the kidnapping - Ryanair has finally spoken - pilots were lied to that they were under the highest risk category and the bomb would explode if they tried to fly to Lithuania, via Mink ATC. Which said that "Ryanair was unreachable", when pilots asked for a call home.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57480835

That doesn't seem to differ from transcript given by Belarus in any major way.

[Forogil]

So about the kidnapping - Ryanair has finally spoken - pilots were lied to that they were under the highest risk category and the bomb would explode if they tried to fly to Lithuania, via Mink ATC. Which said that "Ryanair was unreachable", when pilots asked for a call home.

Good that one additional point was confirmed.

Note that this not only confirms that the pilots were ordered, and didn't divert themselves, but also:

Following the plane's landing, Mr O'Leary said the crew were pressured into confirming on video that they had voluntarily diverted to Minsk but that they refused to do so.

Additionally in the thread I see that there were a few that strongly claimed that the plane had been in contact with Ryanair - we now see that exposed as a lie as well.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-57480835

[Shalcker]

Good that one additional point was confirmed.

Note that this not only confirms that the pilots were ordered, and didn't divert themselves,

Not that they were ordered (that has no mentions in the article), only that they had no other options given failure to contact their headquarters and claimed level of threat.

There are no denials given to Belarussian claims that there no orders

Additionally in the thread I see that there were a few that strongly claimed that the plane had been in contact with Ryanair - we now see that exposed as a lie as well.

This claim was made from initial reports but transcript made it clear that they attempted to contact them but couldn't, which this article confirms.

The article also doesn't seem to (at least directly) refute mentioned Belorussian claim:
Belarus air force chief Igor Golub said there was "no interception, no forced diversion from the state border or forced landing of the Ryanair plane".

As such i have to assume that there were indeed no interception, and we can bury claim "they threatened them with fighter jet".

[Forogil]

Not that they were ordered (that has no mentions in the article), only that they had no other options given failure to contact their headquarters and claimed level of threat.

Pilots follow ATC - especially when it is such a high threat level. "Code Red".

And you are hiding a big lie in your statement in the statement "failure to contact HQ" .

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That doesn't seem to differ from transcript given by Belarus in any major way.

It does differ in a major way.

The partial transcript from Belarus, that we previously suspected was missing something, doesn't mention that the ATC told the pilots that "Ryanair was unreachable." Or that the pilots asked them to phone Ryanair.

What other pieces are missing?

[Shalcker]

Pilots follow ATC - especially when it is such a high threat level. "Code Red".

Yes. As far as i see that isn't "forced" or "ordered" - they were simply "misled" into acting certain way by not giving them alternative options.

Which they could technically still take as nothing stopped them - but definitely shouldn't have in case of real threat.

[jonnysensible]

there should be top level sanctions against that potato fuhrer and all his kids/allies. If any of their cash/assets head west it should be frozen/straight up stolen.
emergency visas for skilled workers should be issued for anyone who wants to leave, we should absolutely drain the country of anyone who can do anything and make it bleed money (and make the Russians bleed money propping it up)
we should also look at 4th gen warfare ways to make the country unstable (i.e agitate violent removal of dictator with propaganda/direct assistance.) find a proxy force and get them going.

[Forogil]

Yes. As far as i see that isn't "forced" or "ordered"

Yes, the ATC orders planes, and pilots normally follow those orders.

And we still don't know what else is missing or modified from the incomplete transcript released by Belarus to hide this hijacking of a plane between two EU-countries.

[Shalcker]

there should be top level sanctions against that potato fuhrer and all his kids/allies. If any of their cash/assets head west it should be frozen/straight up stolen.

Why would anyone do that after decades of West showing how it deals with assets given to them?

emergency visas for skilled workers should be issued for anyone who wants to leave, we should absolutely drain the country of anyone who can do anything and make it bleed money (and make the Russians bleed money propping it up)

Russia already does that.

How exactly do you plan to bleed money from it though?

Getting work for millions of skilled people on short notice is not that trivial, and Lukashenko is already closing his borders to prevent any significant "escapes".

we should also look at 4th gen warfare ways to make the country unstable (i.e agitate violent removal of dictator with propaganda/direct assistance.) find a proxy force and get them going.

That particular approach had also played out plenty of times and now everyone is aware how to deal with it - "no concessions/full crackdown".

You're trying to use approaches that everyone is fully prepared to deal with. What makes you think it'll succeed this time?

[Easo]

That doesn't seem to differ from transcript given by Belarus in any major way.

What would it take for you to stop defending a fake bomb threat? And the important part is - pilots could not contact Ryanair, as opposed to what you, IIRC, said. They talked only with Minsk.
Let's also try to avoid an obvious insult to our intelligence by saying that "Ryanair was not picking up", shall we?

there should be top level sanctions against that potato fuhrer and all his kids/allies. If any of their cash/assets head west it should be frozen/straight up stolen.
emergency visas for skilled workers should be issued for anyone who wants to leave, we should absolutely drain the country of anyone who can do anything and make it bleed money (and make the Russians bleed money propping it up)
we should also look at 4th gen warfare ways to make the country unstable (i.e agitate violent removal of dictator with propaganda/direct assistance.) find a proxy force and get them going.

Dude, the actual fuck?!