[Speculation] There Won't Be 9.3 Patch

[Relapses]

...WoW faces another fifteen month content drought before they push the next expansion upon us. And you'll all still sheepishly buy it because Warlords of Draenor and its half-finished state has proven that you have no standards. Lesser publishers would have gone out of business for abandoning a product 25% through its anticipated life cycle like the Warcraft team did, but not Blizzard themselves.

Wow dude, bold prediction there. What's next? Something about us living in a society?

[Couchpotato2013]

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I like drawing patterns with 1 thing to look at

Also I didn’t know the world ended in 2022 with all this talk avoiding any possible launches in 2023 for shadowlands and how 10.0 is required to launch in 2022 and neither classic tbc or SL/10.0 were effected by the quarantine delays

They delayed shadowlands by one month, when we did not have a vaccine. You’d have to be naive to think anything except another pandemic or worse would make them deviate from their rigidly held expectations by investors.

We are going to have a mid-August to early December 2022 launch window for retail with no question, which then has to allot space for classic content drops as well. Tbc will have a shorter lifespan than classic, cause it just does. The only thing propping it up will be people’s tolerance of repetition.

[Clbull]

My friend I might have a stroke after that much salt

If you expected anything but salt from a discussion about the worsening state of WoW, you'll be sorely disappointed.

[Revamp Man]

I think you didn't use much thought with your math. 9.2 won't last most of a year if they are planning to do a 9.3. There is no reason for Blizzard to shy away from a Holiday release for an expansion because they did that with Shadowlands. All they have to do is delay the start of the raid opening to January if they release in December.

9.2 lasting 6-7 months is the average patch time we have gotten with past patches and according to ion is what they are aiming for due to the fact it lets “content breathe”

[rhorle]

9.2 lasting 6-7 months is the average patch time we have gotten with past patches and according to ion is what they are aiming for due to the fact it lets “content breathe”

Right. Which would mean 9.2 launching in January going until June or July. Which doesn't mean an expansion release postponed until 2022 just because of the holidays. It would mean a normal window of Fall. It still wouldn't put 10.0 at August 2023 if a 9.3 happens. Because you would see an August/September 9.3 and we wouldn't see a full year of patch 9.3 just for them to bring 10.0.

[Relapses]

They delayed shadowlands by one month, when we did not have a vaccine. You’d have to be naive to think anything except another pandemic or worse would make them deviate from their rigidly held expectations by investors.

Care to show the class where on earth you got this idea that mysterious "investors" have any fucking input on the design of the game whatsoever?

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Right. Which would mean 9.2 launching in January going until June or July. Which doesn't mean an expansion release postponed until 2022 just because of the holidays. It would mean a normal window of Fall. It still wouldn't put 10.0 at August 2023 if a 9.3 happens. Because you would see an August/September 9.3 and we wouldn't see a full year of patch 9.3 just for them to bring 10.0.

It's all guesswork anyway. There are no clearly defined parameters for Blizzard to release content, just entitled gamers who feel like they need to impose their personal standards on video game companies. The industry as a whole would be better if fans would just fuck off and let developers release products when they're ready to be released.

[Nyel]

I guarantee you blizz will want to draw on the heart strings of wrath anniversary in order to sell wrath classic.


Just a bit of math:


Classic lasted 631 days (August 26, 2019-May 18, 2021), vanilla lasted 742 (November 23, 2004- December 5, 2006) (neither including pre-patch). So classic was 85% the length of vanilla. Going by that % and the length of how long tbc which was 637 days long (January 16, 2007- October 14, 2008). We could roughly expect classic tbc to last 541.7 days. Which if we start off with June 1st date that would place 542 days on Friday November 25, 2022. Which would be 11 days after the 14th anniversary of wrath.

Naturally that would be Thanksgiving Friday so no launch then but the closeness of date, especially given how tbc has far less world content and will be way more prone to raidlogging with arena being the only repeatable content (and that will turn people off heavily). Logical to expect tbcc to have shorter product life cycle vs classic.

And since that has wrath classic probably in November/early December, that can place 10.0 launch at August-early October. There just is no time for 9.3. 9.1 as people are hyping up now, and with 9.2 between mid-November to January (much like 7.3.2/.5 and 8.3).

I agree that 9.3 won’t be a thing, but I don’t agree with your WotLK timeline. WotLK will launch roughly two years from now, I’d say it’ll be another 22 months of TBC Classic (Classic lasted for 22 months, original TBC lasted for 22 months) - TBC was quite a short expansion, but I don’t think they’ll shorten it by that much in its Classic re-release.

I think the safest bet still is the tried and tested schedule of expansions that last for 2 years, which puts 10.0 into Q3/Q4 22 and WotLK Classic into Q1/2 2023.

[Relapses]

I agree that 9.3 won’t be a thing, but I don’t agree with your WotLK timeline. WotLK will launch roughly two years from now, I’d say it’ll be another 22 months of TBC Classic (Classic lasted for 22 months, original TBC lasted for 22 months) - TBC was quite a short expansion, but I don’t think they’ll shorten it by that much in its Classic re-release.

I think the safest bet still is the tried and tested schedule of expansions that last for 2 years, which puts 10.0 into Q3/Q4 22 and WotLK Classic into Q1/2 2023.

I see your 10.0 in Q3/Q4 in 2022 and raise you 10.0 in Q1 2023 and WotLK Classic in never. I know this because I asked my trusty Magic 8-Ball and it's never been wrong. Ever.

[Nyel]

They will aim to make 9.3 to keep sub numbers high along with revenue so they have decent earnings reports after they get back on track next year

Sorry, but this makes no sense. Sub numbers will hit the all-time-Shadowlands-low right after 9.2 (and right before 9.3, if it exists). 9.3 would basically come out at a time we would almost get the pre patch for the next expansion. And if we only get 9.3 and not the next expansion, people won’t just come back because of that. 9.3 will never ever generate the sub numbers a 10.0 release will, that’s the main reason why 10.0 will always be more important than 9.3, even if we’re just talking about not having 9.3 at all but getting 10.0 2-3 months earlier because of that.

With 9.3, which would come out over a year from now, there are just no high sub numbers to be kept subbed.

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I see your 10.0 in Q3/Q4 in 2022 and raise you 10.0 in Q1 2023 and WotLK Classic in never. I know this because I asked my trusty Magic 8-Ball and it's never been wrong. Ever.

WotLK is the biggest Classic launch they have available. If they ever had a reason to give us Classic, it was the re-release of WotLK. They’re already cashing in on TBC with the deluxe edition and the boost, just imagine how much revenue they can generate by doing the same for WotLK. If something is guaranteed and set in stone, it’s the Classic release of WotLK.
_________

By the way, why would we even need 9.3? If they can wrap up the story in 9.2, 9.3 just has no reason to exist. If 9.2 comes out in either December or January and 10.0 comes out sometime around November, everything would be... normal. Just as usual. 6 months tiers, 10 months final tier. Nothing would have been scrapped and nothing did drag on for too long. Everything would just be... fine.

[Stardrift]

I don't think there will be and I don't want there to be. Idc about the theory crafting and conspiracy theories on why or why not 9.3 will happen. Shadowlands in its entirety is just uninteresting.

[Echo of Soul]

Not a chance with the snail speed they're developing during covid, we're looking at another WOD.

[Relapses]

WotLK is the biggest Classic launch they have available. If they ever had a reason to give us Classic, it was the re-release of WotLK. They’re already cashing in on TBC with the deluxe edition and the boost, just imagine how much revenue they can generate by doing the same for WotLK. If something is guaranteed and set in stone, it’s the Classic release of WotLK.

Care to link me the press release for WotLK Classic? Thanks.

By the way, why would we even need 9.3? If they can wrap up the story in 9.2, 9.3 just has no reason to exist. If 9.2 comes out in either December or January and 10.0 comes out sometime around November, everything would be... normal. Just as usual. 6 months tiers, 10 months final tier. Nothing would have been scrapped and nothing did drag on for too long. Everything would just be... fine.

Why do we need a 9.3? I don't know. Maybe -- get this: The developers want to make a 9.3! Inconceivable, I know.

[Mojo03]

My guess is they will do something big for 10.0. The game is due for it's every 3 expansion revamp and they don't want a long wait between expansions or another massive drought again.

Cancelling 9.3 and merging what they can into 9.2 makes the most sense to me.

My money is on it getting cancelled.

[Revamp Man]

They delayed shadowlands by one month, when we did not have a vaccine. You’d have to be naive to think anything except another pandemic or worse would make them deviate from their rigidly held expectations by investors.

We are going to have a mid-August to early December 2022 launch window for retail with no question, which then has to allot space for classic content drops as well. Tbc will have a shorter lifespan than classic, cause it just does. The only thing propping it up will be people’s tolerance of repetition.

There was a one month delay from their original launch announcement that doesn’t mean that was the planned launch when they first started developing it

They likely had another date in mind then the delays happened and they figured that they could make it work and then it got delayed again

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Right. Which would mean 9.2 launching in January going until June or July. Which doesn't mean an expansion release postponed until 2022 just because of the holidays. It would mean a normal window of Fall. It still wouldn't put 10.0 at August 2023 if a 9.3 happens. Because you would see an August/September 9.3 and we wouldn't see a full year of patch 9.3 just for them to bring 10.0.

OK so do you believe that the company is not going to shorten the end of expansion gap by capitalizing on the delays or do you believe that we are going to have a 10 to 12 month gap as is normal for the end of expansion because it is very important figure out what mindset you’re using so I can see if you’re agreeing with me on purpose or not

[Jastall]

The story is indeed moving at a damn brisk pace, and if they still want to release 10.0 in late 2022 (which they probably do) then that means they have to wrap up Shadowlands and release its final content patch before April/May 2022 at the very latest. If 9.1 releases in June, we'd then need 9.2 around October/November and 9.3 in said April or May. I do think it's possible, but not that likely. A big, meaty 9.2 around Janurary 2022 to cap off the xpack is possible.

If 10.0 is delayed, which I don't find that likely, then we definitely get 9.3. When the next expansion releases is the defining question in all this- and we won't know until next year.

[Revamp Man]

Why is this reminding me of “no 8.3”

Oh right

Same circular arguments
Same doomsaying
Same “evidence”
Same ignoring everything that goes against the points

Honestly all we are missing is the goalposts getting shifted after the 9.2 announcement at blizzconline

[rhorle]

OK so do you believe that the company is not going to shorten the end of expansion gap by capitalizing on the delays or do you believe that we are going to have a 10 to 12 month gap as is normal for the end of expansion because it is very important figure out what mindset you’re using so I can see if you’re agreeing with me on purpose or not

How can I be agreeing with you when I've been using different dates then you? Like I said you needed to think your math through a little longer because you had calculations that didn't add up. At no point would patch 9.2 in January mean a 12month gap of content for 10.0. WoW expansions have not typically had a 12 month gap of content. Even Shadowlands that was delayed didn't have a full 12 months.

You can't talk about typical release time frames while also picking your own definition for those time frames.

[Relapses]

Why is this reminding me of “no 8.3”

Oh right

Same circular arguments
Same doomsaying
Same “evidence”
Same ignoring everything that goes against the points

Honestly all we are missing is the goalposts getting shifted after the 9.2 announcement at blizzconline

Yeah well, the game's dying for real this time because I asked two people in my guild and they said yep. You can't argue with concrete evidence like that.

[Couchpotato2013]

Why is this reminding me of “no 8.3”

Oh right

Same circular arguments
Same doomsaying
Same “evidence”
Same ignoring everything that goes against the points

Honestly all we are missing is the goalposts getting shifted after the 9.2 announcement at blizzconline

Literally when/which topics here even had that. As a smidge of evidence we were going to have it, was the existence of TFing still being in the game but blizz dev’s early in 8.0 (brought up by T&E), saying they were trying to come up with something to replace gear quality rng (aka titanforging). Which we all know they were referring to corruption.

Also I am pretty sure most expansion announcements have been made well over a year before release. So if blizz was going to ditch us, in Naz/mechagon hell they would said something back in 2018 or 2019. They didn’t and even then, Ion did a patch demonstration back around October 2019 talking about 8.3.

I will say though that the wait in 8.1 before BoD (6 weeks) was really pointless. And we likely would have been better off with the “by September 2018” launch date they started with for bfa, before pushing it up to August 13/14, 2018.

[Revamp Man]

How can I be agreeing with you when I've been using different dates then you? Like I said you needed to think your math through a little longer because you had calculations that didn't add up. At no point would patch 9.2 in January mean a 12month gap of content for 10.0. WoW expansions have not typically had a 12 month gap of content. Even Shadowlands that was delayed didn't have a full 12 months.

You can't talk about typical release time frames while also picking your own definition for those time frames.

7.3 to 8.0
6.2 to 7.0
5.4 to 6.0

Not including the BfA gap because Covid delays