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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    This fixes nothing.

    Despite the "communist China" bullshit, their deeply sexist culture combined with the hyper capitalist dog eat dog nature of their economy will keep birthrates low.
    pretty much the same thing happening in Japan, I can't imagine south Korea is a whole lot better that regard either.

  2. #22
    The 1.7 is from 2019. It dropped to 1.3 in 2020 driven by the largest population centers. Beijing, with population of 21 million (40% that of CA), experienced 24.9% drop in birth rate in 2020 when compared to 2019. The precipitous drop in 2020 may just be an anomaly due to Covid-19. We shall see.

  3. #23
    How progressive of the CCP! Maybe one day they'll move to not having a limit.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    It fixes everything for the couples who have 2 kids but want 1 more.


    Even though that is true this issue is primarily a cultural issue and not a resource scarcity issue. Where there is human will to create more there is always a way.
    Prior to the change, there was nothing stopping people from having more than 2 children in China. They just have to pay one time fine. Chinese people in rural areas do it all the time.
    Last edited by Rasulis; 2021-06-01 at 05:31 PM.

  5. #25
    The Unstoppable Force PC2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    There is nothing stopping people from having more than 2 children in China. They just have to pay one time fine. Chinese people in rural areas do it all the time.
    Yeah, the CCP is pretty brutal but they're not so brutal that they'll just grab the extra child and get rid of it.
    Let's spread optimism and defeat pessimism! (HumanProgress.org)

  6. #26
    Congrats, China. You changed nothing.

    There are other things to take a good look at and actually change before looking at the already ridiculous existence of a specific child policy.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Just six years after scrapping the 1-child policy in favour of a 2-child policy, the CCP has announced they are now instituting a 3-child policy, right on the tail of the recent census which didn't provide good news.

    The once a decade census had been delayed in being released for a couple of months, and even if it wasn't amended, the numbers showed that China was aging much faster than expected, with fertility down to just 1.3 children per women and acknowledgement of a major gender imbalance.

    So in response the CCP has just announced that they are changing to a 3-child policy, despite the change to the 2-child policy not making much of an impact. The issue isn't about desire for kids, but cost of living - as someone said, one couple supporting 4 grandparents and 3 children isn't feasible.
    And the issue for China is that 1.3 children per woman is a degradation in population numbers? Plus, am I remembering this correctly, the decades long 1-child policy created the gender imbalance because everyone wanted a son. Is that where all this is coming from?

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    And the issue for China is that 1.3 children per woman is a degradation in population numbers? Plus, am I remembering this correctly, the decades long 1-child policy created the gender imbalance because everyone wanted a son. Is that where all this is coming from?
    Lots of things from my understanding. The policy, the preference for sons, more women entering the workplace and choosing not to have children, people not being able to afford multiple kids etc. etc. etc.

    It's a mixture of the problem facing a lot of developed nations (declining birthrates) compounded by bad policy decisions and social/cultural forces.

  9. #29
    Banned Beazy's Avatar
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    Should just let them have as many kids as they want.

    Doesn't Emperor Pooh Bear have like 4 or 5 kids?

  10. #30
    Women in China have to overcome a lot of artificial obstacles. Yet, one thing is true, “the cream always rises to the top.” Those that survived the system ended up to be high achievers.

    China’s official statistics show that there are more female than male students in Chinese universities and the gap is widening. In a country with more men than women, and many families still prioritize their boys’ education, and women require higher scores to get into China universities, it is interesting to see that gender ratio reverse on campus. Women now made up 70% of the medical student population in China. Don’t bother clicking on my link unless you read Mandarin.

    Government data also show that women set up 55% of new internet companies in China and more than a quarter of all entrepreneurs are women. This is a much higher number than in any other country in the world. That link is from Bloomberg although it is behind paywall.

    There are 88 self-made female billionaires found across the world, and 56 Chinese businesswomen among them. Marking China the best place in the world to be a female entrepreneur.

    Basically, despite all the difficulties and gender discrimination, women are outperforming men in China. This adds to the problem. Successful women rarely marry down. Your typical Chinese men do not want wives that are more successful than them.
    Last edited by Rasulis; 2021-06-01 at 07:12 PM.

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by uuuhname View Post
    p can't imagine south Korea is a whole lot better that regard either.
    There is a sharp decline in work force participation among women who are older than 30 compared to women below 30. That's when a lot of couples start having kids. They leave the work force to take care of the kids, can't have both a kid and a job.

    Society also kind of looks down on a working mother, because what kind of mother wouldn't stay at home to take care of her kids? A bad mother.

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Freighter View Post
    Society also kind of looks down on a working mother, because what kind of mother wouldn't stay at home to take care of her kids? A bad mother.
    A mother who can't afford to? I'd argue a mother who goes to work, missing precious time with their children, to ensure that they can afford to feed and care for them is a pretty good mother, personally.

    But hey, I don't imagine every mother is independently wealthy or that their spouses/partners can make enough to raise a family on a single income anymore.

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by Freighter View Post
    There is a sharp decline in work force participation among women who are older than 30 compared to women below 30. That's when a lot of couples start having kids. They leave the work force to take care of the kids, can't have both a kid and a job.

    Society also kind of looks down on a working mother, because what kind of mother wouldn't stay at home to take care of her kids? A bad mother.
    Women in China got around that problem by not having babies. There are other broad signs of dissatisfaction among Chinese women: The marriage rate fell last year to its lowest point in the 70-year history of the People’s Republic of China. The link is in Mandarin.

    The divorce rate is climbing, too, with women initiating the majority of the cases. In Beijing, the authorities reported one divorce for every two marriages in 2017.

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Freighter View Post
    A bad mother.
    oh Jesus, you know you can't base your society off of making everyone have to work to make ends meet and then still hold these sort of antiquated positions. it's like those doofus' that see an ad from the 1950's selling dish soap and wistfully look back at a time when women were barefoot but a man could afford to pay for everything working his union backed job. you cant have it both ways.
    Last edited by uuuhname; 2021-06-01 at 07:52 PM.

  15. #35
    Legendary! Logwyn's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blur4stuff View Post
    Having children is an enormous sacrifice for decades at the very least. There's absolutely no guarantee it will work out great, either. Odds are it won't be worth it. Sure, your kids may turn out okay and maybe in the end you'll feel like it was worth it. But the chances of that happening are a lot lower than the alternatives.

    It's no secret at this point that your life will likely be a happier one using your time and money on yourself and your partner if you even want to have one. If you feel some kind of moral obligation to society then there are plenty of programs to volunteer for that help youth in one way or another. No need to create your own.

    This is only going to get worse. Radical changes are needed and I don't see them happening anytime soon.
    I'm surprised that someone hasn't come up with a "Get rid of children...give us immortality" schtick. Or something.

  16. #36
    The Unstoppable Force Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blur4stuff View Post
    Having children is an enormous sacrifice for decades at the very least. There's absolutely no guarantee it will work out great, either. Odds are it won't be worth it. Sure, your kids may turn out okay and maybe in the end you'll feel like it was worth it. But the chances of that happening are a lot lower than the alternatives.

    It's no secret at this point that your life will likely be a happier one using your time and money on yourself and your partner if you even want to have one. If you feel some kind of moral obligation to society then there are plenty of programs to volunteer for that help youth in one way or another. No need to create your own.

    This is only going to get worse. Radical changes are needed and I don't see them happening anytime soon.
    ...uhh you're not going to find many parents going "yeah having kids was a bad idea, wish we had just spent all that money on ourselves. That sports car would have brought me the happiness in my waning years that family simply couldn't."

    And if you do know a lot of people like that, I have no idea what terrible kinds of people you're hanging out with. Or what apparently shitty children they're raising. Though if that's the attitude they take towards parenting, maybe it explains the children.

    Quote Originally Posted by Freighter View Post
    Society also kind of looks down on a working mother, because what kind of mother wouldn't stay at home to take care of her kids? A bad mother.
    I can't speak to Chinese society but I can tell you that having both parents working while having children is by and large the expected norm in "western" society. I'd wager that very few people up through fairly well-off middle class find themselves so gainfully employed that they can afford to have a parent that's home all day and not working a job.
    Last edited by Kaleredar; 2021-06-02 at 06:59 AM.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Lots of things from my understanding. The policy, the preference for sons, more women entering the workplace and choosing not to have children, people not being able to afford multiple kids etc. etc. etc.

    It's a mixture of the problem facing a lot of developed nations (declining birthrates) compounded by bad policy decisions and social/cultural forces.
    These mixture of problems can be resolved by having more immigration (I know right-wing heads exploding right now) and by not suppressing other ethnic groups within your official borders.

    Having more unprotected sex however won't resolve any population issues
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53424726

    This, combined with a low fertility rate of just 1.4 births per woman, means that the number of people able to fill jobs in the country is in decline.

    Countries need a fertility rate of about 2.1 births to maintain existing population sizes.
    If the 1.3 births per women is true than than China will have more issues than Japan in a much quicker timeframe. China probably is also dealing with allot more emigration than Japan for example which is another issue that they won't be able to resolve in a quick fashion.

  18. #38
    Warchief Sugarcube's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ati87 View Post
    These mixture of problems can be resolved by having more immigration (I know right-wing heads exploding right now)
    anti-immigration people maybe... not right-wing as a whole... the right-wing is more than happy to bring in immigrants to exploit and use as an excuse to dump wages or to suppress wage increases... then make people blame the immigrants for it rather than their exploitation lol...

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by ati87 View Post
    These mixture of problems can be resolved by having more immigration (I know right-wing heads exploding right now) and by not suppressing other ethnic groups within your official borders.

    If the 1.3 births per women is true than than China will have more issues than Japan in a much quicker timeframe. China probably is also dealing with allot more emigration than Japan for example which is another issue that they won't be able to resolve in a quick fashion.
    China is so large that immigration can't work for them. Not only is their birth rate much lower than the US they cant attract enough people to replace the millions per year retiring. China would have to import millions of immigrants a year already and that number would only climb. And given the ethno-nationalist nature of the place that is a tall order.

    It is why some forecasts are predicting that by 2100 the population of China will be smaller than the USA.

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by ati87 View Post
    These mixture of problems can be resolved by having more immigration (I know right-wing heads exploding right now) and by not suppressing other ethnic groups within your official borders.

    Having more unprotected sex however won't resolve any population issues
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53424726



    If the 1.3 births per women is true than than China will have more issues than Japan in a much quicker timeframe. China probably is also dealing with allot more emigration than Japan for example which is another issue that they won't be able to resolve in a quick fashion.
    If more immigration was a magical solution, it would be known but it is not. It leads to more tension inside any given society. So on one hand, you can or may solve birth rate with more immigration but other issue can arise from "said solution".

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