Global warming may have already passed irreversible tipping point

[Shadowferal]

There is evidence that the conservatives are slowly winning the ideological battle in the US. .

You the same guy that said Trump would win the presidency? The same guy that seemed so certain of "retaking" the WH back in Jan 6th?

[beanman12345]

There is evidence that the conservatives are slowly winning the ideological battle in the US.

1. Black men voting for the Republican candidate: 2008, McCain, 5% 2012, Romney, 11% 2016, Trump, 13% 2020, Trump, 18%. Think about what that means. In the middle of the BLM protest, Trump won the highest percentage of black male votes in generations.

2. Black female vote for the Republican candidate: 2016 4%, 2020 8%

https://twitter.com/CharlesMBlow/sta...75456668979200

3. Young blacks are more of a swing vote and no longer a dem voting bloc. The process should complete in 10-15 years. Once it happens, Georgia, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Virginia all go deep red. New York state goes *purple*.

4. Trump simply turned the Great Lakes states *early*. 2016 was way too early. They will all permanently flip red by 2028-2032.

5. It is a fact that Donald Trump entered the white house in 2016 with more political power than any republican president since before WW2 as he could claim control of both houses of congress.

6. It is a fact that Joe Biden entered the white house in 2020 with *less* political power than any democrat president since before WW2 as his party only tied for senate control instead of winning an outright majority. Also, no supermajority in the House which most dem presidents had.

7. Its like ships passing in the night, with the GOP producing its strongest president while the dems produce their weakest.



Right now the BIG target for the GOP is the state of New York. It can be flipped red as early as 2024. It is on the table as we don't know how fast the black vote is going to flip in the next 15 years. Could be pretty quick.

2024 is gonna be a real dogfight for the dems. Blacks may go 30% GOP. Or 40% if things go badly for the dems.

Wow, there is still people on that copium, jeez, rofl this is funny shit.

[Flarelaine]

No, because I'm not moronic enough to believe that individual level choices are remotely capable of addressing what is fundamentally a systemic problem.

Whether or not you have access to functional mass transit is systemic. Whether or not you use it when you have access is a personal choice - one that is the most impactful in this matter and sadly, outright rejection is all too common.

[Elegiac]

Whether or not you have access to functional mass transit is systemic. Whether or not you use it when you have access is a personal choice - one that is the most impactful in this matter and sadly, outright rejection is all too common.

The reasons people reject public transport even when available are also systemic, bruh.

[Flarelaine]

The reasons people reject public transport even when available are also systemic, bruh.

Systemic as in widespread, perhaps. "I won't ride the stinky bus with the plebs" is one I hear all too often and fail to find anything systemic in it.

[Specialka]

Systemic as in widespread, perhaps. "I won't ride the stinky bus with the plebs" is one I hear all too often and fail to find anything systemic in it.

Some would argue the society made them think that way (because reasons), hence the systemic part.

[wunksta]

Researchers have found that Earth’s energy imbalance approximately doubled during the 14-year period from 2005 to 2019.

Earth's climate is determined by a delicate balance between how much of the Sun's radiative energy is absorbed in the atmosphere and at the surface and how much thermal infrared radiation Earth emits to space. A positive energy imbalance means the Earth system is gaining energy, causing the planet to heat up. The doubling of the energy imbalance is the topic of a recent study, the results of which were published June 15 in Geophysical Research Letters.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/langley...e-has-doubled/

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An unprecedented heat wave and ongoing drought in the U.S. Pacific Northwest is damaging white wheat coveted by Asian buyers and forcing fruit farm workers to harvest in the middle of the night to salvage crops and avoid deadly heat.

Cordell Kress, who farms in southeastern Idaho, expects his winter white wheat to produce about half as many bushels per acre as it does in a normal year when he begins to harvest next week, and he has already destroyed some of his withered canola and safflower oilseed crops.

"The general mood among farmers in my area is as dire as I've ever seen it," Kress said. "Something about a drought like this just wears on you. You see your blood, sweat and tears just slowly wither away and die."

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/wit...ps-2021-07-12/

[cubby]

There is evidence that the conservatives are slowly winning the ideological battle in the US.

1. Black men voting for the Republican candidate: 2008, McCain, 5% 2012, Romney, 11% 2016, Trump, 13% 2020, Trump, 18%. Think about what that means. In the middle of the BLM protest, Trump won the highest percentage of black male votes in generations.

2. Black female vote for the Republican candidate: 2016 4%, 2020 8%

https://twitter.com/CharlesMBlow/sta...75456668979200

3. Young blacks are more of a swing vote and no longer a dem voting bloc. The process should complete in 10-15 years. Once it happens, Georgia, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Virginia all go deep red. New York state goes *purple*.

4. Trump simply turned the Great Lakes states *early*. 2016 was way too early. They will all permanently flip red by 2028-2032.

5. It is a fact that Donald Trump entered the white house in 2016 with more political power than any republican president since before WW2 as he could claim control of both houses of congress.
Bush took office in 2004, and both House and Senate were GOP controlled.

6. It is a fact that Joe Biden entered the white house in 2020 with *less* political power than any democrat president since before WW2 as his party only tied for senate control instead of winning an outright majority. Also, no supermajority in the House which most dem presidents had.
Clinton's presidency began with Democrats controlling both House and Senate.

7. Its like ships passing in the night, with the GOP producing its strongest president while the dems produce their weakest.
So given the realities of #5 and #6, this is also wrong.


Right now the BIG target for the GOP is the state of New York. It can be flipped red as early as 2024. It is on the table as we don't know how fast the black vote is going to flip in the next 15 years. Could be pretty quick.

2024 is gonna be a real dogfight for the dems. Blacks may go 30% GOP. Or 40% if things go badly for the dems.

Yeah, you're going to need to go back and double check every one of those facts. You already are wrong on the two big ones (see red comments in your post, under each number). With those obvious ones being incorrect, I question your demographic data from the elections.

[postman1782]

There is evidence that the conservatives are slowly winning the ideological battle in the US.

1. Black men voting for the Republican candidate: 2008, McCain, 5% 2012, Romney, 11% 2016, Trump, 13% 2020, Trump, 18%. Think about what that means. In the middle of the BLM protest, Trump won the highest percentage of black male votes in generations.

2. Black female vote for the Republican candidate: 2016 4%, 2020 8%

https://twitter.com/CharlesMBlow/sta...75456668979200

3. Young blacks are more of a swing vote and no longer a dem voting bloc. The process should complete in 10-15 years. Once it happens, Georgia, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Virginia all go deep red. New York state goes *purple*.

4. Trump simply turned the Great Lakes states *early*. 2016 was way too early. They will all permanently flip red by 2028-2032.

5. It is a fact that Donald Trump entered the white house in 2016 with more political power than any republican president since before WW2 as he could claim control of both houses of congress.

6. It is a fact that Joe Biden entered the white house in 2020 with *less* political power than any democrat president since before WW2 as his party only tied for senate control instead of winning an outright majority. Also, no supermajority in the House which most dem presidents had.

7. Its like ships passing in the night, with the GOP producing its strongest president while the dems produce their weakest.



Right now the BIG target for the GOP is the state of New York. It can be flipped red as early as 2024. It is on the table as we don't know how fast the black vote is going to flip in the next 15 years. Could be pretty quick.

2024 is gonna be a real dogfight for the dems. Blacks may go 30% GOP. Or 40% if things go badly for the dems.

And you are already lying. Trump didn't get 18% of the black vote in 2020, he got 8%.

[Flarelaine]

My apologies for not pointing this out a page earlier, but this thread is not about US electoral business.

[Zaktar]

Systemic as in widespread, perhaps. "I won't ride the stinky bus with the plebs" is one I hear all too often and fail to find anything systemic in it.

Can you be more specific? When I met her, my ex couldn't drive and exclusively took the bus and trolley. A lot of homeless folks use public transit where I live, and are mentally ill to the point that they would harass her and make her feel extremely unsafe. She was tiny, weighed less than 50 kilos, and found it difficult to defend herself. I guess you could boil her not wanting to subject herself to regular sexual harassment and the threat of assault down to "not wanting to ride the stinky bus with the plebs," but it seems like an asinine distinction to me. Should someone be shamed for not subjecting themselves to danger?

On top of that, and again I can really only speak for my city, public transit is much slower. For her taking the trolley and bus took ~60 minutes vs me picking her up which took 15 minutes (from her perspective, 30 for mine - still an overall improvement).

In our scenario the reasons why it made more sense for me to drop her off and pick her up were systemic. The system hadn't invested enough resources to make mass transit a safe and efficient option.

[Flarelaine]

Can you be more specific? When I met her, my ex couldn't drive and exclusively took the bus and trolley. A lot of homeless folks use public transit where I live, and are mentally ill to the point that they would harass her and make her feel extremely unsafe. She was tiny, weighed less than 50 kilos, and found it difficult to defend herself. I guess you could boil her not wanting to subject herself to regular sexual harassment and the threat of assault down to "not wanting to ride the stinky bus with the plebs," but it seems like an asinine distinction to me. Should someone be shamed for not subjecting themselves to danger?

On top of that, and again I can really only speak for my city, public transit is much slower. For her taking the trolley and bus took ~60 minutes vs me picking her up which took 15 minutes (from her perspective, 30 for mine - still an overall improvement).

In our scenario the reasons why it made more sense for me to drop her off and pick her up were systemic. The system hadn't invested enough resources to make mass transit a safe and efficient option.

Those are much more valid concerns, especially with the poor public transit.

I live in a city where public transit is frequent enough with decent coverage so taking it does not mean losing much time over driving, at least downtown, and is occasionally faster. And we also have homeless people every now and then, but not as a regular occurence. When someone is making trouble, drivers can just call the dispatchers, who have a direct line to the police - a patrol boarding at the next stop can cut it short. Still I get the attitude I quoted - mostly from folks who admit they haven't even tried the bus in recent years. (The homeless problem used to be bad, especially on night buses, I admit, but that was more than a decade ago.)

[Bryntrollian]

@cubby

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/envi...-news-rcna1431

Thanks to a "wobble" in the moon's orbit and rising sea levels, every coast in the United States will face rapidly increasing high tides that will start "a decade of dramatic increases in flood numbers" in the 2030s.

Scientists say there’s nothing new or dangerous about the wobble. In fact, the first report of a moon wobble dates back to 1728.

"What’s new is how one of the wobble’s effects on the Moon’s gravitational pull – the main cause of Earth’s tides – will combine with rising sea levels resulting from the planet’s warming," NASA says.

"The higher seas, amplified by the lunar cycle, will cause a leap in flood numbers on almost all U.S. mainland coastlines, Hawaii, and Guam. Only far northern coastlines, including Alaska’s, will be spared for another decade or longer because these land areas are rising due to long-term geological processes," NASA said Wednesday.

How severe will the floods be? In 2019, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported more than 600 floods.

By the mid-2030s, scientists expect three to four times that amount.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...ww.cbsnews.com


Hmm, it seems we'll have less time before it gets pretty hectic for our coastal cities.

[cubby]

@cubby

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/envi...-news-rcna1431



https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...ww.cbsnews.com


Hmm, it seems we'll have less time before it gets pretty hectic for our coastal cities.

I saw that article too - just brutal. And there are articles out now about flash flooding in Europe and Arizona - not necessarily related, but all part of the same growing problem.

[Edge-]

@cubby

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/envi...-news-rcna1431



https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...ww.cbsnews.com


Hmm, it seems we'll have less time before it gets pretty hectic for our coastal cities.

Never been a better time to not own beachfront property.

Jesus this is all a fuckin mess. Not the moon wobble, but the fact that we'll have caused the effects of the moon wobble to be so much worse.

[Draco-Onis]

I saw that article too - just brutal. And there are articles out now about flash flooding in Europe and Arizona - not necessarily related, but all part of the same growing problem.

Well the good news is we have 9 years to prepare however if recent events are any indication places like Florida will say FAKE NEWS LUBERALS and we will have to spend billions to repair the damage because they don't believe in climate change. Europe seems to be getting their shit together preparing for things like this.

[Flarelaine]

Well the good news is we have 9 years to prepare however if recent events are any indication places like Florida will say FAKE NEWS LUBERALS and we will have to spend billions to repair the damage because they don't believe in climate change. Europe seems to be getting their shit together preparing for things like this.

Hey, we've got the Dutch.

[Muzjhath]

Never been a better time to not own beachfront property.

Jesus this is all a fuckin mess. Not the moon wobble, but the fact that we'll have caused the effects of the moon wobble to be so much worse.

And the right wing parties in Sweden want to open up more beaches to public development . . .

[Forogil]

Hmm, it seems we'll have less time before it gets pretty hectic for our coastal cities.

The lunar node was at its last peak around 2018/2019 - were the tides that bad back then?
To me this seems overly dramatic.

Clearly, a bit higher tides in combination with rising sea levels may cause a problem, but it's in fact not such a big issue for the US or most of Europe - https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2010JC006645 (Figure 4) but it's more problematic in east Asia. Note that a peak in the mid-2030s mean that it will disappear again in the 2040s.

- - - Updated - - -

I saw that article too - just brutal. And there are articles out now about flash flooding in Europe and Arizona - not necessarily related, but all part of the same growing problem.

Flash flooding has a number of additional causes (besides more rain): hard roads and concrete don't allow the natural overflowing of riverbanks and rainy areas.
Still a man-made problem.

[Deus Mortis]

I saw that article too - just brutal. And there are articles out now about flash flooding in Europe and Arizona - not necessarily related, but all part of the same growing problem.

Yeah it is brutal, over 100 dead and over 100 missing.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/07...ooding-germany

The scenes of devastation from the floods came from all around Western Europe as the death toll passed 100 on Friday. Roads buckled and washed away. Cars piled atop one another. Houses were inundated to the roof tiles. Frightened residents were being evacuated in the shovels of earth movers.

But nowhere was affected more than Germany, where hundreds were still unaccounted for and the death toll had reached 93 and was expected to rise as rescue workers combed through the debris. At least a dozen were reported dead in Belgium.

On Friday, rain was still falling.

As rescue workers scrambled to reach cutoff villages that are remote on the best of days, the heavy rains — coming after several of the driest years on record for much of Central Europe — had brought some of the most severe flooding in decades.

Extreme downpours like the ones that occurred in Germany are among the most visible and damaging signs that the climate is changing as a result of warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions. Studies have found that they are now occurring more frequently, and scientists point to a simple reason: A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, which creates extreme rainfall.