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  1. #1341
    Extreme heat is slamming the world's three biggest economies all at once

    Estimating just how catastrophic climate change will be for the global economy has historically proven challenging. But this summer, it’s increasingly evident how quickly costs can pile up.

    Extreme heat and drought conditions are battering the United States, Europe and China, compounding problems for workers and businesses at a time when economic growth is already slowing sharply and adding to upward pressure on prices.

    In China’s Sichuan province, all factories have been ordered shut for six days to conserve power. Ships carrying coal and chemicals are struggling to make their usual trips along Germany’s Rhine river. And people living on America’s West Coast have been asked to use less electricity as temperatures soar.

    These events “have the capacity to be quite significant for the particular regions that are affected,” said Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics.

    The extent of the pain could depend on how long the heatwaves and lack of rain last. But in countries like Germany, experts warn there’s little relief in sight, and companies are preparing for the worst.

    It’s not just the Rhine. Around the world, rivers that support global growth — the Yangtze, the Danube and the Colorado — are drying up, impeding the movement of goods, messing with irrigation systems and making it harder for power plants and factories to stay cool.

    At the same time, scorching heat is hampering transportation networks, straining power supply and hurting worker productivity.

    “We shouldn’t be surprised by the heat wave events,” said Bob Ward, policy and communications director at the London School of Economics’ Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment. “They’re exactly what we predicted and are part of a trend: more frequent, more intense, all over the world.”

    China is facing its fiercest heat wave in six decades, with temperatures crossing 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in dozens of cities. Parts of California could see temperatures as high as 109 degrees Fahrenheit this week. Earlier this summer, temperatures topped 40 degrees Celsius in the United Kingdom for the first time ever.

    The global economy was already under pressure. Europe is at high risk of a recession as energy prices soar, stoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. High inflation and aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve jeopardize growth in the United States. China is grappling with the consequences of harsh coronavirus lockdowns and a real estate crisis.

    “At present, we are at the most difficult point of economic stabilization,” Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said this week.

    Extreme weather could exacerbate “existing pinch points” along supply chains, a major reason inflation has been difficult to bring down, May of Oxford Economics said.

    China’s Sichuan province, where factories have shuttered production this week, is a hub for makers of semiconductors and solar panels. The power rationing will hit factories belonging to some of the world’s biggest electronics companies, including Apple (AAPL) supplier Foxconn and Intel (INTC).

    The province is also the epicenter of China’s lithium mining industry. The shutdown may push up the cost of the raw material, which is a key component in electric car batteries.

    The neighboring city of Chongqing, which sits at the confluence of the Yangtze and Jialing rivers, has also ordered factories to suspend operations for a week through next Wednesday to conserve electricity, state media The Paper reported.

    Forecasts for China’s economy this year are already being downgraded as a consequence. Analysts at Nomura cut their 2022 projection for GDP growth to 2.8% on Thursday — way below the government’s 5.5% target — while Goldman Sachs trimmed its forecast to 3%.

    Germany’s shrinking Rhine, meanwhile, has dropped below a critical level, impeding the flow of vessels. The river is a crucial conduit for chemicals and grain as well as commodities — including coal, which is in higher demand as the country races to fill storage facilities with natural gas ahead of the winter. Finding alternative forms of transit is difficult given labor shortages.

    “It is only a matter of time before plants in the chemical or steel industry are shut down, mineral oils and building materials fail to reach their destination, or large-volume and heavy transports can no longer be carried out,” Holger Lösch, deputy director of the Federation of German Industries, said in a statement this week.

    Low water levels along the Rhine shaved about 0.3 percentage points off Germany’s economic output in 2018, according to Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING. But in that instance, low water wasn’t a problem until late September. This time around, it could lower GDP by at least 0.5 percentage points in the second half of this year, he estimated.

    Economic sentiment in Germany continued to dip in August, according to data released this week. Brzeski said the country “would need an economic miracle” to avoid falling into a recession in the coming months.

    In the American West, an extraordinary drought is draining the nation’s largest reservoirs, forcing the federal government to implement new mandatory water cuts. It’s also forcing farmers to destroy crops.

    Nearly three quarters of US farmers say this year’s drought is hurting their harvest — with significant crop and income loss, according to a survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation, an insurance company and lobbying group that represents agricultural interests.

    The survey was conducted across 15 states from June 8 to July 20 in extreme drought regions from Texas to North Dakota to California, which makes up nearly half of the country’s agricultural production value. In California — a state with high fruit and nut tree crops — 50% of farmers said they had to remove trees and multiyear crops due to drought, which will affect future revenue.

    Without significant investment in upgrading infrastructure, costs will only keep rising, Ward of the London School of Economics noted. And the impact may not be incremental.

    “There are signs these heat episodes are not just becoming slightly more intense and frequent over time. It’s happening in a kind of non-gradual way, and that will make it more difficult to adapt,” Ward said.

  2. #1342
    Graphs comparing the old (Robert Steadman, 1979) and new heat index (David Romps and Yi-Chuan Lu/UC Berkeley, 2022).


  3. #1343
    https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...152150663.html
    According to the Los Angeles Times, these celebrities were among 2,000 customers of the Las Virgenes Municipal Water District issued “notices of exceedance,” meaning they had overstepped their monthly water budget by at least 150% no less than four times since the end of last year.

    Kim Kardashian was among the worst offenders, with her Hidden Hills home and adjoining estate exceeding her one-month budget by a whopping 232,000 gallons in June. Her sister Kourtney’s property near Calabasas surpassed her budget by 101,000 gallons, which sounds quite a bit better, until you realize she did it all on 1.86 acres. For comparison, comedian Kevin Hart blew past his water budget by 117,000 gallons on a 26-acre Calabasas property.

    Neither of the Kardashians nor Hart offered comment on receiving their notices of exceedance. But actor and director Sylvester Stallone attempted to defend his water usage — 230,000 excess gallons in June, up from 195,000 excess gallons in May. In a statement, his attorney Marty Singer wrote that he has “more than 500 mature trees on the property, including innumerable fruit trees as well as pine trees. Absent adequate watering, in all likelihood they would die.”

    That’s kind of the point. Nobody wants to see fruit trees die if it can be helped, but according to Las Virges spokesperson Mike McNutt, it can’t be helped. “We’re asking them to not just minimize their water usage, but we’re also asking them, in a way, to just completely rethink what is aesthetically pleasing to them and how that’ll impact their property values,” he said. “And that is not something that happens overnight.”

    In other words, it doesn’t matter how you feel about mature fruit trees, they don’t belong in the desert at a time when there isn’t enough water to go around.
    Gotta wonder what type of punishment the average joe would of faced if they exceeded their limits by over 100k gallons in a single month.

  4. #1344
    Quote Originally Posted by Deus Mortis View Post
    https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...152150663.html


    Gotta wonder what type of punishment the average joe would of faced if they exceeded their limits by over 100k gallons in a single month.
    IIRC the same fines that the rich pay, but can easily afford.

    Real though, I cannot tolerate those folks. Here I am continuing to watch my water consumption across the board and letting parts of the garden in the house I moved into struggle a bit with lower water as we try to transition to more draught tolerant plants to reduce our water consumption even more.

    And these assholes are using the same amount of water as a small town, by themselves.

    Real, my position of "eat the rich" remains consistent. Fuck these people so god damned much, especially the assholes down in the fuckin desert who want to make their little "oasis paradise" and shit. Honey, you're in the fuckin desert. You want a paradise? Go live on an island in the Caribbean, it already fuckin exists.

  5. #1345
    Over 9000! Milchshake's Avatar
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    Picture's of France's longest river The Liore are just brutal.

    Welcome to MMO-C. One you realize that the median poster is a Johnny Depp fanboi that consume 8 hours of youtube a day. You realize it's hopeless.

  6. #1346
    The Undying cubby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    IIRC the same fines that the rich pay, but can easily afford.

    Real though, I cannot tolerate those folks. Here I am continuing to watch my water consumption across the board and letting parts of the garden in the house I moved into struggle a bit with lower water as we try to transition to more draught tolerant plants to reduce our water consumption even more.

    And these assholes are using the same amount of water as a small town, by themselves.

    Real, my position of "eat the rich" remains consistent. Fuck these people so god damned much, especially the assholes down in the fuckin desert who want to make their little "oasis paradise" and shit. Honey, you're in the fuckin desert. You want a paradise? Go live on an island in the Caribbean, it already fuckin exists.
    I'm definitely coming around to an "eat the rich" philosophy as well. Read an interesting [fiction] book about how we as a species would go about saving the environment well enough and soon enough to matter. Among the litany of things that were done, maximizing the wealth of any one person to $50MM was one part of it. Thought it was brilliant.

  7. #1347
    China's unrivaled 70-day heat wave

    The extreme heat and drought that has been roasting a vast swath of southern China for at least 70 straight days has no parallel in modern record-keeping in China, or elsewhere around the world for that matter.

    Why it matters: Based on recent studies, the question facing climate scientists is how much climate change contributed to this disaster.

    The big picture: More than 260 weather stations saw their highest-ever temperatures during the long-running heat wave, according to state media reports.

    • It has coincided with a severe drought that has shriveled rivers and lakes and throttled back some of China's hydropower production.
    • This has led the government to cut power to Sichuan's key industrial hubs, an emergency measure extended on Aug. 21.

    By the numbers: More all-time heat records fell Sunday, particularly in Sichuan province.

    • Gao reached 110.3°F (43.5°C) while Jianyang and Zigong hit 110.1°F (43.4°C), according to Meteo France meteorologist Etienne Kapikian.
    • The all-time high temperature of 105.8°F (41°C) in Mianyang on Sunday broke the previous record by 4°F, an unusually large margin for such a milestone.
    • On Saturday, Chongqing, whose city center is home to 9 million, saw an overnight low temperature that was a few degrees hotter than its typical August daytime high, at 94.8°F (34.9°F).
    • If verified, it would be the hottest overnight minimum temperature anywhere in China during August, according to weather historian Maximiliano Herrera.
    • In Beibei, the temperature hit 113°F (45°C) on Aug. 19 and 20, the highest reliable temperature ever recorded in the country outside of Xinjiang.

    Threat level: This heat wave has also set records for its geographic reach, with nearly 530,000 square miles within China seeing high temperatures exceed 104°F (40°C).

    • This is equivalent to the states of Texas, Colorado and California combined.
    • In China, such a footprint encompasses well over 100 million people.

    What they’re saying: "I can't think of anything comparable to China's heat wave of summer 2022 in its blend of intensity, duration, geographic extent and number of people affected,” meteorologist Bob Henson, a contributor to Yale Climate Connections, told Axios.

    • Henson noted the simultaneous extreme heat events and droughts also occurring this summer in Europe, East Africa and the U.S.
    • “We know that when drought happens, a warming climate accentuates the impacts, parching the landscape and allowing temperatures to rise even further. We've seen the drought-and-heat playbook in action across the Northern Hemisphere this summer,” Henson said.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Deus Mortis View Post
    https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...152150663.html


    Gotta wonder what type of punishment the average joe would of faced if they exceeded their limits by over 100k gallons in a single month.
    From what I understand, no fines. The Las Virgenes Municipal Water District will install a flow restrictor device.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    IIRC the same fines that the rich pay, but can easily afford.

    Real though, I cannot tolerate those folks. Here I am continuing to watch my water consumption across the board and letting parts of the garden in the house I moved into struggle a bit with lower water as we try to transition to more draught tolerant plants to reduce our water consumption even more.

    And these assholes are using the same amount of water as a small town, by themselves.

    Real, my position of "eat the rich" remains consistent. Fuck these people so god damned much, especially the assholes down in the fuckin desert who want to make their little "oasis paradise" and shit. Honey, you're in the fuckin desert. You want a paradise? Go live on an island in the Caribbean, it already fuckin exists.
    Rich people always feel that the rules don't apply to them. List of Las Vegas largest water users.

    'The richer the people get the more ignorant they get,' said Kyle Roerink, Executive Director of the Great Basin Water Network., whose organization stresses the importance of water conservation.

    'They think there is a different set of rules for the rich because they can afford whatever price they are charged for water.

    'The people who have green in their bank accounts are the ones that have green in their lawn,' he added.

    'They are not even paying attention to Lake Mead.'


    - - - Updated - - -

    Drought exposes dozens of Nazi ships sunk in Danube River

    More than 20 ships have been exposed, still containing ammunition and explosives, along a stretch of the river near Serbia’s river port town of Prahovo, Reuters reported.

    The explosive-laden ships pose a danger to shipping routes and Serbia’s and Romania’s local fishing industry.

    According to Reuters, some of the exposed ships have narrowed the navigable section of the river near Prahovo from 180 meters to 100 meters (590 to 330 feet).

  8. #1348
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post

    Rich people always feel that the rules don't apply to them. List of Las Vegas largest water users.

    Reminder, if it's just a fine it's just expensive. Not bad.
    If you're rich enough.
    - Lars

  9. #1349
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muzjhath View Post
    Reminder, if it's just a fine it's just expensive. Not bad.
    If you're rich enough.
    Fines are the cost of doing a thing, to rich people. $500 parking fine for illegal parking? That just means it costs $500 to park there. And they made $500 picking their nose after pulling up, so fuck it, who cares?

    Fines need to be made relative to income. It should cost a wealthy person the same relative amount as it does a poor person. That means if a $1000 fine risks a poor person losing their apartment due to not making rent, the same fine should risk the rich person losing their house. Whatever value that may be.


  10. #1350
    Quote Originally Posted by Deus Mortis View Post
    https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...152150663.html


    Gotta wonder what type of punishment the average joe would of faced if they exceeded their limits by over 100k gallons in a single month.
    If I was swimming in money like those folks, I would also want a sumptuous garden.

    But with that kind of money, I could afford to finance a wastewater recycling facility for the town and use that for watering my flowerbeds.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    I'm definitely coming around to an "eat the rich" philosophy as well. Read an interesting [fiction] book about how we as a species would go about saving the environment well enough and soon enough to matter. Among the litany of things that were done, maximizing the wealth of any one person to $50MM was one part of it. Thought it was brilliant.
    You would also have to rethink the whole legal framework around property because folks with that much money will lawyer their way around any limits in the blink of an eye. They already fucking do.

  11. #1351
    The Lightbringer Nymrohd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    Fines are the cost of doing a thing, to rich people. $500 parking fine for illegal parking? That just means it costs $500 to park there. And they made $500 picking their nose after pulling up, so fuck it, who cares?

    Fines need to be made relative to income. It should cost a wealthy person the same relative amount as it does a poor person. That means if a $1000 fine risks a poor person losing their apartment due to not making rent, the same fine should risk the rich person losing their house. Whatever value that may be.
    In this case it doesn't even need to be fines. They can get around revenue based fines; it's really not at all hard to own most of your wealth indirectly. You should just have water prices scale exponentially with consumption instead of linearly.
    Last edited by Nymrohd; 2022-08-24 at 08:41 AM.

  12. #1352
    The Undying cubby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flarelaine View Post
    You would also have to rethink the whole legal framework around property because folks with that much money will lawyer their way around any limits in the blink of an eye. They already fucking do.
    You're right - it would require a fundamental shift, globally, of almost every law. Practically, however, it would be a tax issue. Tax everyone's income on a graduated scale until they hit $50M wealth, then 100% tax on all income. Obviously much more complicated.

  13. #1353
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    Rich people always feel that the rules don't apply to them. List of Las Vegas largest water users.
    Fines really need to scale with wealth so that these people actually notice the fine rather than just treat it as part of the normal costs of living.

  14. #1354
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Fines really need to scale with wealth so that these people actually notice the fine rather than just treat it as part of the normal costs of living.
    It would be interesting to see at what price point(s) these people would start paying attention. According to the LA times article, the Kardashian paid around $5,500 per month for their water use. The Sultan of Brunei use over 1,000,000 gallon per month for his Las Vegas compound and paid around $20,000 per month. Obviously, money does not mean much to them.

    Back to San Francisco. The Pacific Ocean fog engine has been working overtime this summer. Not a single heat wave in the Bay Area this summer. That may be ending as we are entering September when the Diablo Wind will start bringing the heat from inland to the coastal zone. However, a weak low-pressure system to the north is on its way out, and when its counterclockwise flow meets the Pacific High’s clockwise flow today, the San Francisco Bay will get a blast of cold, marine air. Enough to kick the sea breeze all the way into the Sacramento Delta. Plenty of cool air for the North Bay and East Bay. The temperature on the west side of San Francisco, Pacifica and Half-Moon Bay may struggle to reach above 60 by this afternoon. East Bay will be in the low 70s. Petaluma, Napa, Sonoma, San Ramon and Livermore around 90s in the afternoon dropping into the low 50s at night. Santa Cruz in the 70s and San Jose 80s.

    Last edited by Rasulis; 2022-08-24 at 05:25 PM.

  15. #1355
    The Lightbringer Nymrohd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Fines really need to scale with wealth so that these people actually notice the fine rather than just treat it as part of the normal costs of living.
    Or just cap how much water a property can get per surface area. Actually not per area. Per people living there. You do not have a legal right to a lawn.

  16. #1356
    The Undying cubby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Fines really need to scale with wealth so that these people actually notice the fine rather than just treat it as part of the normal costs of living.
    You know, interestingly, some European countries use the value of the vehicle to levy speeding fines. Yet one more of the litany of things other developed countries do better than the U.S.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    It would be interesting to see at what price point(s) these people would start paying attention. According to the LA times article, the Kardashian paid around $5,500 per month for their water use. The Sultan of Brunei use over 1,000,000 gallon per month for his Las Vegas compound and paid around $20,000 per month. Obviously, money does not mean much to them.
    The Kardashisluts make about $1MM per tweet, not too mention all the other crap they sell/market for money. $5,500/mo is probably less than they spend on makeup. I read somewhere that rich people look at U.S. parking tickets and other such fines as just fees for doing things - the fine is so small it doesn't even register.

    This is the same situation. $20,000/mo for a Sultan - he probably spends more on ball washers.

  17. #1357
    Quote Originally Posted by cubby View Post
    You know, interestingly, some European countries use the value of the vehicle to levy speeding fines. Yet one more of the litany of things other developed countries do better than the U.S.
    Basing the fine on the price of the property would be a start! It could easily reduce fines on lower income folks who have something like a broken water pipe or idiot guest who forgets to turn off the sink pushing them over, and could provide an actual hope of a financial deterrent for the uber-wealthy folks who need to keep their 54 acre garden resort in the desert.

  18. #1358
    The Undying cubby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Basing the fine on the price of the property would be a start! It could easily reduce fines on lower income folks who have something like a broken water pipe or idiot guest who forgets to turn off the sink pushing them over, and could provide an actual hope of a financial deterrent for the uber-wealthy folks who need to keep their 54 acre garden resort in the desert.
    Agreed. And the law would be easy, just make it a percentage of the last tax-assessed price.

  19. #1359
    Quote Originally Posted by Edge- View Post
    Basing the fine on the price of the property would be a start! It could easily reduce fines on lower income folks who have something like a broken water pipe or idiot guest who forgets to turn off the sink pushing them over, and could provide an actual hope of a financial deterrent for the uber-wealthy folks who need to keep their 54 acre garden resort in the desert.
    I would really like to see this. It would be nice for the little guy that the fine would not crush them, and make it so the rich actually have to play by the rules.

  20. #1360
    WC3 Megathreader Lilithvia's Avatar
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    Did you know cotton grown in the US uses about 1.5k gallons of water, and the same cotton grown in China uses 22.5k gallons of water?

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