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  1. #261
    And China does not give two shits about Taiwan going full retard military wise and creating some losses at home, dead civilians would just give more support to take the island. Look at Azerbaijan - they lost a lot of soldiers compared to Armenia while having upper hand in basically everything. The dead were forgotten instantly after the war was won. In fact, it did not even matter during the war when Armenians started posting piles of corpses. When Scuds started landing in Azerbaijan's cities they enraged Azeri populations in them, not made them think of peace.
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  2. #262
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    And China does not give two shits about Taiwan going full retard military wise and creating some losses at home, dead civilians would just give more support to take the island. Look at Azerbaijan - they lost a lot of soldiers compared to Armenia while having upper hand in basically everything. The dead were forgotten instantly after the war was won. In fact, it did not even matter during the war when Armenians started posting piles of corpses. When Scuds started landing in Azerbaijan's cities they enraged Azeri populations in them, not made them think of peace.
    There will be major casualties regardless. All of the suitable beach heads for major invasion are in the heaviest urbanized areas of Taiwan (Taipei, Taoyuan, Zhubei, Tainan, etc.). Short of invading from the east and crossing the steep mountains there is no good way for China to invade Taiwan without inflicting heavy civilian casualties. It would be silly for Taiwan to hold back in fear of Chinese population anger. They are already in a war. What are those angry Chinese going to do anyway? Swim across the strait? They are probably going to be sitting on the roof of their homes trying to stay dry because the PLA is too busy attacking Taiwan and don't have the personnel to do rescue operation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    Pfft nobody is going to get mad at Taiwan for taking counter-measures in response to a Chinese invasion.
    It would be just like China. We are going to invade you without provocation. We are going to bomb your cities and send endless missiles against you. But if you attack our dams, we will get mad.

  3. #263
    The Unstoppable Force PC2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    Tit for tat.
    Exactly, the CCP would effectively erase Taiwan's society so I don't see why Taiwan would hold back against an existential threat to their national culture. The fact that most of the population would/could survive is largely irrelevant because who wants live on an island where the people have to live as pets to the CCP...

    It's like thinking most all of the Middle Eastern countries could wipe out Israel but then Israelis can't use nukes to defend themselves because they would supposedly "lose" PR points in the world's eyes. But from their perspective why would they even care about the world's opinion if the world is siding with the people who are going to irrevocably destroy their society? Holding back doesn't make a lot of sense from their perspective.
    Last edited by PC2; 2021-07-27 at 10:29 PM.
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  4. #264
    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    There will be major casualties regardless. All of the suitable beach heads for major invasion are in the heaviest urbanized areas of Taiwan (Taipei, Taoyuan, Zhubei, Tainan, etc.). Short of invading from the east and crossing the steep mountains there is no good way for China to invade Taiwan without inflicting heavy civilian casualties. It would be silly for Taiwan to hold back in fear of Chinese population anger. They are already in a war. What are those angry Chinese going to do anyway? Swim across the strait? They are probably going to be sitting on the roof of their homes trying to stay dry because the PLA is too busy attacking Taiwan and don't have the personnel to do rescue operation.
    So you think that instead of using those missiles to try stopping the naval invasion until the end Taiwanese leadership would do some kind of last "screw you" in the face of imminent defeat and shoot them at some dams instead of surrendering? Brah... That's pretty much suicide for them afterwards. This is not WW2 with fanatic Japanese wanting to fight until everyone is dead.
    This is not even Israel's case where failure means genocide, here loss would mean change of management on the island and relatively little for the Taiwanese, as long as they don't try to talk too much.
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  5. #265
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    So you think that instead of using those missiles to try stopping the naval invasion until the end Taiwanese leadership would do some kind of last "screw you" in the face of imminent defeat and shoot them at some dams instead of surrendering? Brah... That's pretty much suicide for them afterwards. This is not WW2 with fanatic Japanese wanting to fight until everyone is dead.
    This is not even Israel's case where failure means genocide, here loss would mean change of management on the island and relatively little for the Taiwanese, as long as they don't try to talk too much.
    In the first place you don't use long range cruise missiles to stop naval invasion. That's a waste of valuable resources. Anti-ship missiles are more appropriate, and you could get over a dozen anti-ship missiles for the cost of a single cruise missile.

    What I think is not important. The key here is what do PLA generals think. Do they believe that Taiwan will use cruise missiles to attack soft targets such as dams, power plants, chemical plants, etc. The amount of supply, both materials and energy, chain disruption in China due to the current Henan flooding due to controlled blasting of a single dam is massive. Imagine the economic impact of 100 dams failing at the same time. Some may even lead to cascading failure of the downstream dams.

  6. #266
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    US does not have any bases in Taiwan. So the nearest support would have to come from Japan or Guam. The same issue that make amphibious landing difficult in Taiwan, the lack of accessible beach heads, also make it difficult to reinforce Taiwan from the sea. All the major ports are located on the Strait of Taiwan side. The first step in the of a China invasion of Taiwan would be to bomb all the major runways. So that route is closed also.

    The strategy that make the most sense to me is to deter China from attacking Taiwan in the first place by increasing Taiwan’s capability to hit high impact targets in mainland China. In the past, Taiwan had concentrated on defense and their ability to strike the mainland was limited to the southern coast of China. Taiwan has had long range cruise missile technology since 2004, and chose not to mass produce any out of fear of antagonizing China. Obviously that strategy was not working.

    With the introduction of the Yun Feng last year, Taiwan’s capability to strike mainland critical targets increased to cover all of central and western China. Which put tens of thousands of dams, chemical and power plants, including nuclear power plants, and major Chinese cities within striking range. Taiwan’s ability to damage China has increased exponentially.

    The problem is that Taiwan started late in mass producing their long range cruise missiles. The US can accelerate this by selling Tomahawk cruise missiles to Taiwan. At the current cost, 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles would cost around 2 billion dollars, or 20% of Taiwan’s current annual defense budget. That would increase the range of Taiwan’s porcupine defense all the way to northern China. Also bigger payloads and stealth capability meant more damage and less chance of interception.
    "If the US had enough time to move heavy armor to Taiwan then the Army would be able to defend the beaches." Key sentence. Without that the best the US can do is move in light troops to force China to attack them. It would not be possible for China to assemble an actual invasion force w/o tipping its hand by at least a few days.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    Rasulis, if you think Taiwan's plan is to destroy dams and kill shitload of civilians (let's ignore which side has way more missiles first, or their capability), then they have lost already. Also - best way to loose international support for Taiwan.
    If the threat to destroy dams is all they have left to keep China at bay, that is just a "nuclear" deterrent.

  7. #267
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    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    The Conservatives are also facing internal crises of leadership as the old Reform and Progressive Conservative factions in-fight, in ways that just might mean the party splits again (which would guarantee they remain irrelevant).

    Like I said; you're not informed.
    Its possible they could get a leader to unify them. I haven't seen what Doug is polling but he was the darling of conservatives in Ontario at one point. Erin otoole isn't that guy I dont think.
    The hammer comes down:
    Quote Originally Posted by Osmeric View Post
    Normal should be reduced in difficulty. Heroic should be reduced in difficulty.
    And the tiny fraction for whom heroic raids are currently well tuned? Too bad,so sad! With the arterial bleed of subs the fastest it's ever been, the vanity development that gives you guys your own content is no longer supportable.

  8. #268
    Quote Originally Posted by Kellhound View Post
    "If the US had enough time to move heavy armor to Taiwan then the Army would be able to defend the beaches." Key sentence. Without that the best the US can do is move in light troops to force China to attack them. It would not be possible for China to assemble an actual invasion force w/o tipping its hand by at least a few days.

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    If the threat to destroy dams is all they have left to keep China at bay, that is just a "nuclear" deterrent.
    It is exactly that. It is Taiwan's version of a nuclear deterrent. The same with China's 200 - 300 nuclear warheads. Nowhere in the same league as US and Russia with 6,000 warheads each. However, enough to deter any country from launching a first strike against China.

    This is something that people do not understand. Every aspects of Taiwan's infrastructure were built with China in mind - collapsible bridges and tunnels that could be used to block access, freeways that double as runways, etc. However, since China did not have to worry about Taiwan being able to strike at mainland targets until recently, their infrastructure, especially their dams are considered soft targets.

  9. #269
    Quote Originally Posted by Josuke View Post
    Look I will give you this, if this was happening in the states, the response would be worse. I can already see the public debates about how dead children was good actually.
    Did you miss it? We've had that thread recently.
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  10. #270
    Quote Originally Posted by Gestopft View Post
    Did you miss it? We've had that thread recently.
    Of course we dif

  11. #271
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    It is exactly that. It is Taiwan's version of a nuclear deterrent. The same with China's 200 - 300 nuclear warheads.
    Yeah no, that's a nope. Nothing like that. Nuclear detterrent is mutual assured destruction. There's no way formosa can inflict any serious damage on china before getting roflstomped. The same with china's 200-300 warheads they will be intercepted, good luck if couple dosens actually make it to americsn soil
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  12. #272
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yadryonych View Post
    Yeah no, that's a nope. Nothing like that. Nuclear detterrent is mutual assured destruction. There's no way formosa can inflict any serious damage on china before getting roflstomped. The same with china's 200-300 warheads they will be intercepted, good luck if couple dosens actually make it to americsn soil
    I disagree with the bolded part, there are ways to use superior creativity to counter superior numbers.
    Let's spread optimism and defeat pessimism! (HumanProgress.org)

  13. #273
    Quote Originally Posted by Yadryonych View Post
    Yeah no, that's a nope. Nothing like that. Nuclear detterrent is mutual assured destruction. There's no way formosa can inflict any serious damage on china before getting roflstomped. The same with china's 200-300 warheads they will be intercepted, good luck if couple dosens actually make it to americsn soil
    A couple of dozens of nuclear warheads reaching US soil will be devastating. Yes, China will be totally destroyed afterward. However, the US will still suffer calamitous life and economic losses.

    The same with dozens of China's major dams failing at the same time. It will the equivalent of the Sumatran's tsunami. Except, instead of fishing villages and small towns, it will hit major cities. Some with the population size of more than half of California.

  14. #274
    So some news not directly connected to Taiwan, but to PRC itself. Recent reports seem to confirm that they are building more nuke silos, basically doubling their existing amount. Question is, why?
    The more realistic option - just to have more, even with double capacity they are far from USA and Russia, but gain edge over the other main player in the region - India.
    Worst one? They have decided to start directly competing with above mentioned countries and become the third global "nuke power".

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57995185

    Quote Originally Posted by PC2 View Post
    I disagree with the bolded part, there are ways to use superior creativity to counter superior numbers.
    Small problem, China does not only have superior numbers, they have superior equipment/firepower/tech/call it whatever you wish.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kellhound View Post
    If the threat to destroy dams is all they have left to keep China at bay, that is just a "nuclear" deterrent.
    Yeah, basically.

    Rasulis, you absolutely can use cruise missiles against naval invasion, if you strike the beacheads where enemy has landed (might depend on the minimal trajectory though, if the target is so close, no idea about specifics of Taiwanese missiles).

    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    A couple of dozens of nuclear warheads reaching US soil will be devastating. Yes, China will be totally destroyed afterward. However, the US will still suffer calamitous life and economic losses.

    The same with dozens of China's major dams failing at the same time. It will the equivalent of the Sumatran's tsunami. Except, instead of fishing villages and small towns, it will hit major cities. Some with the population size of more than half of California.
    And it won't do shit to stop USA the country. I will repeat myself once more - there is no MAD scenario in China vs USA fight, losses can be absorbed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadoowpunk View Post
    Take that haters.
    IF IM STUPID, so is Donald Trump.

  15. #275
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    So some news not directly connected to Taiwan, but to PRC itself. Recent reports seem to confirm that they are building more nuke silos, basically doubling their existing amount. Question is, why?
    The more realistic option - just to have more, even with double capacity they are far from USA and Russia, but gain edge over the other main player in the region - India.
    Worst one? They have decided to start directly competing with above mentioned countries and become the third global "nuke power".

    ...

    And it won't do shit to stop USA the country. I will repeat myself once more - there is no MAD scenario in China vs USA fight, losses can be absorbed.
    Your last statement explains exactly why they are going for option number 3. Basically, if they care about survival they have to assemble a large enough nuke force that the general consensus is that them launching their entire arsenal of nukes at us would be bad for the US, and not be completely absorbed. US and China are at war. Not a hot war, but a war nonetheless. This sounds like sound military doctrine - if the roles were reversed we would do the same.

    Americans here and elsewhere casually talk about actions that destroy multiple Chinese cities and justify why this is necessary. The US-Chinese war scenarios that Skroe provided links all showed an awful lot of destroyed coastal Chinese cities. If anyone here were to council China as to how best deal with the US, it would be pretty much what they are doing: build as many nukes as possible as fast as possible, and make their economy as self sustaining as they possibly can. They are doing both from what I can tell.

  16. #276
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omega10 View Post
    make their economy as self sustaining as they possibly can.
    They will have to seize SEA oil fields and Australian coal for that. The same thing as japan tried to do back then
    Lives matter

  17. #277
    Quote Originally Posted by Yadryonych View Post
    They will have to seize SEA oil fields and Australian coal for that. The same thing as japan tried to do back then
    I expect that the US will take full advantage of this vulnerability.

  18. #278
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rasulis View Post
    A couple of dozens of nuclear warheads reaching US soil will be devastating. Yes, China will be totally destroyed afterward. However, the US will still suffer calamitous life and economic losses.

    The same with dozens of China's major dams failing at the same time. It will the equivalent of the Sumatran's tsunami. Except, instead of fishing villages and small towns, it will hit major cities. Some with the population size of more than half of California.
    China may or may not be able to hit the US given the small number of missiles China has with the range needed vs the number of ABMs the US has to defend with. The flip side is the CCP would know what would happen to it afterwards.

  19. #279
    So it looks like China has decided that it is their turn to get entangled in the Graveyard of Empires. Haven't they been paying any attention to what happens there? They have been meeting representatives of the Taliban to make deals with them because Afghanistan is important for the belt and road and also the mineral wealth there. There have even been calls for Chinese peacekeepers to be deployed, under the auspices of the UN, to protect the 'safety and interests' of the Chinese workers there.

    Given the Taliban can't control and protect everything and the extremely tribal nature of Afghanistan, it isn't a stretch to seeing Chinese workers returning home in bodybags. What the response to that will be is interesting - does Xi send in troops to protect them, and if so, how long before they get caught up in a quagmire like every other nation who has tried the same?

  20. #280
    Quote Originally Posted by Easo View Post
    So some news not directly connected to Taiwan, but to PRC itself. Recent reports seem to confirm that they are building more nuke silos, basically doubling their existing amount. Question is, why?
    The more realistic option - just to have more, even with double capacity they are far from USA and Russia, but gain edge over the other main player in the region - India.
    Worst one? They have decided to start directly competing with above mentioned countries and become the third global "nuke power".

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57995185



    Small problem, China does not only have superior numbers, they have superior equipment/firepower/tech/call it whatever you wish.



    Yeah, basically.

    Rasulis, you absolutely can use cruise missiles against naval invasion, if you strike the beacheads where enemy has landed (might depend on the minimal trajectory though, if the target is so close, no idea about specifics of Taiwanese missiles).



    And it won't do shit to stop USA the country. I will repeat myself once more - there is no MAD scenario in China vs USA fight, losses can be absorbed.
    Pretty much in line to a relatively recent Xi statement that they'd be bolstering their nuclear armament. Cold War 2.0 here we go indeed.

    As a side note, on the curbing the collapsing birthrates front, they've decided, among other measures, to pretty much annihilate the private tutoring industry, the rational being to make raising children more affordable. I guess it is indeed time for some more of those good old red times.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    So it looks like China has decided that it is their turn to get entangled in the Graveyard of Empires. Haven't they been paying any attention to what happens there? They have been meeting representatives of the Taliban to make deals with them because Afghanistan is important for the belt and road and also the mineral wealth there. There have even been calls for Chinese peacekeepers to be deployed, under the auspices of the UN, to protect the 'safety and interests' of the Chinese workers there.

    Given the Taliban can't control and protect everything and the extremely tribal nature of Afghanistan, it isn't a stretch to seeing Chinese workers returning home in bodybags. What the response to that will be is interesting - does Xi send in troops to protect them, and if so, how long before they get caught up in a quagmire like every other nation who has tried the same?
    I guess like with the likes of Pakistan, Kazakhstan or Turkey, it boils down to how much they're able to gain the loyalty of the loyal elite by filling the latter's pockets, and how much they'll be able to prop them up/share populace control tricks.
    "Learn to overcome the crass demands of flesh and bone, for they warp the matrix through which we perceive the world. Extend your awareness outwards, beyond the self of body, to embrace the self of group and the self of humanity. The goals of the group and the greater race are transcendent, and to embrace them is to achieve enlightenment."

    ~ Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang on Essays on Mind and Matter

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