Chinese nationalists, Wumao Propaganda and the Rise of China

[Rasulis]

Everything going on indicates that this is a more likely scenario. And Hong Kong seems to realize that it's in the palm of China's hand and it's slowly closing into a grip.

I am not sure that it is a hill that the Chinese want to die on either. China’s conquest of Taiwan will require more than just aerial bombing and lobbing cruise missiles. It would require boots and treads on the ground. Basically amphibious assault.

The FIRST Chinese amphibious assault ship large enough to carry an entire platoon and supporting tanks & helicopters was only completed in 2019. Currently seven more are in construction. They will need a LOT more to ferry troops and equipment across the Taiwanese Strait. The analysis that I have seen indicates that at a minimum China will need a total of 32 large amphibious ships, 16 medium ships, and 29 tank landing ships to transport eight brigades of the PLAN Marine Corps in the first wave of an invasion. That's minimum. To increase the odds, they probably need to double the number.

During WWII the Allies experienced some of their largest losses during the various amphibious landing operations. Back then Germany and Japan did not have highly accurate guided missiles with up 700 miles range. It is estimated that Taiwan currently has 6,000 missiles in their stock pile and the number is growing. Missiles are cheaper than airplanes. So why not. The Taiwanese Strait is only 90 - 130 miles wide. Chinese ships will be vulnerable to these missiles. If only 10% of those missiles hit the target, or any Chinese target, the invasion is doomed.

[Ashnazg]

The whole world knows that in the case of a war between the US and China, it would be very short. Our nukes would decimate their country and kill off 90+ percent of their population and radiate most of their country. We would suffer a couple of hundred of nukes at most, probably 10% of that. We would crush them. A war between the US and China would be over so fast that Russia wouldn't even have a chance of intervening before it was over.

I wonder if people who think this way masturbate to the idea of global genocide. You think there's enough psychopaths in the US military that they want to be responsible for killing off at least 2 billion people on this planet?

[PC2]

I think the Marvel movies are slowly rotting American perception of reality.

US does not have the oomph to seriously contest Taiwan takeover by CCP, which is why US won't even try that - if the situation over Taiwan became a "hot" war, US would not intervene. Noone else in the world gives two shits about the situation, so nothing will be done by anyone else either.

That's exactly what a wumao would say to get their penny from their post. They want you to believe the CCP is an unstoppable force and that it's inevitable that they will win control of Taiwan. Don't fall for it, there is always a way to beat the bad guys.

[Edge-]

That's exactly what a wumao would say to get their penny from their post. They want you to believe the CCP is an unstoppable force and that it's inevitable that they will win control of Taiwan. Don't fall for it, there is always a way to beat the bad guys.

You willing to enlist to fight the CCP over Taiwan?

[Rasulis]

I wonder if people who think this way masturbate to the idea of global genocide. You think there's enough psychopaths in the US military that they want to be responsible for killing off at least 2 billion people on this planet?

In the event of a first strike against the US, yeah. I am pretty sure one of those 14 kaijus, I meant subs, will retaliate. One could easily sneak undetected into the middle of Shanghai harbor, surface, release a salvo of its full payload in less than a minute, submerge and disappear. That's a maximum of 240 warheads ranging between 100 - 500 kilotons each.

The only comparable sub to a US Ohio-class sub is the Soviet era Typhoon-class subs. Six were built during the cold war and only one left operational. It should have been decommissioned a long time ago. The Chinese version lack stealth capability. In fact it is considered quite noisy for a sub. Also, no multi-warhead missile.

[Ashnazg]

That's exactly what a wumao would say to get their penny from their post. They want you to believe the CCP is an unstoppable force and that it's inevitable that they will win control of Taiwan. Don't fall for it, there is always a way to beat the bad guys.

I want people to live in a real world, not in a lala fantasy world.

[Edge-]

I want people to live in a real world, not in a lala fantasy world.

China engaging in a hot-war over Taiwan is pretty lala fantasy world, too. Hot wars between developed nations is like, a massively bad idea given how closely interconnected our economies are. Plenty of chest thumping, posturing, grandiose language etc., but that's about it.

[Ashnazg]

In the event of a first strike against the US, yeah. I am pretty sure one of those 14 kaijus, I meant subs, will retaliate. One could easily sneak undetected into the middle of Shanghai harbor, surface, release a salvo of its full payload in less than a minute, submerge and disappear. That's a maximum of 240 warheads ranging between 100 - 500 kilotons each.

The only comparable sub to a US Ohio-class sub is the Soviet era Typhoon-class subs. Six were built during the cold war and only one left operational. It should have been decommissioned a long time ago. The Chinese version lack stealth capability. In fact it is considered quite noisy for a sub. Also, no multi-warhead missile.

Its unclear whether or not US would use nukes on a country that did not use nukes to attack them in the first place. Maybe - our nuclear weapons doctrine allows for first-strike attacks. On the other hand, like I said earlier, noone wants to be the party that triggers a global genocide, so my hunch is that if a war breaks out where there are two superpowers on both ends, nukes will NOT be used unless one of the parties believes that they're at a risk of a total loss.

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China engaging in a hot-war over Taiwan is pretty lala fantasy world, too. Hot wars between developed nations is like, a massively bad idea given how closely interconnected our economies are. Plenty of chest thumping, posturing, grandiose language etc., but that's about it.

I agree. I think China will simply suffocate Taiwan if they need to, and any kind of takeover will be as a result of an economic war, not a physical one.

[Rasulis]

Its unclear whether or not US would use nukes on a country that did not use nukes to attack them in the first place. Maybe - our nuclear weapons doctrine allows for first-strike attacks. On the other hand, like I said earlier, noone wants to be the party that triggers a global genocide, so my hunch is that if a war breaks out where there are two superpowers on both ends, nukes will NOT be used unless one of the parties believes that they're at a risk of a total loss.

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I agree. I think China will simply suffocate Taiwan if they need to, and any kind of takeover will be as a result of an economic war, not a physical one.

I specifically stated "in the event of a first strike against the US" in the first sentence. The Ohio-class and Typhoon-class subs are meant as deterrent.

[PC2]

I want people to live in a real world, not in a lala fantasy world.

China does not control Taiwanese society. That is the factual reality. You are the one thinking that a fantasy is inevitable.

It's possible for China to conquer Taiwan but that's only if Taiwan and its allies do not make the correct sequence of moves, build better defenses and new offensive deterrents, gather enough intel that can cripple a Chinese attack in its infancy, etc.

[Easo]

I am not sure that it is a hill that the Chinese want to die on either. China’s conquest of Taiwan will require more than just aerial bombing and lobbing cruise missiles. It would require boots and treads on the ground. Basically amphibious assault.

The FIRST Chinese amphibious assault ship large enough to carry an entire platoon and supporting tanks & helicopters was only completed in 2019. Currently seven more are in construction. They will need a LOT more to ferry troops and equipment across the Taiwanese Strait. The analysis that I have seen indicates that at a minimum China will need a total of 32 large amphibious ships, 16 medium ships, and 29 tank landing ships to transport eight brigades of the PLAN Marine Corps in the first wave of an invasion. That's minimum. To increase the odds, they probably need to double the number.

During WWII the Allies experienced some of their largest losses during the various amphibious landing operations. Back then Germany and Japan did not have highly accurate guided missiles with up 700 miles range. It is estimated that Taiwan currently has 6,000 missiles in their stock pile and the number is growing. Missiles are cheaper than airplanes. So why not. The Taiwanese Strait is only 90 - 130 miles wide. Chinese ships will be vulnerable to these missiles. If only 10% of those missiles hit the target, or any Chinese target, the invasion is doomed.

So you think China should have bigger invasion fleet than even USA has (which would imply USA can't navally invade anyone, which is untrue)? Doubtful. There is zero chance that a 23 million nation can successfully defend against second biggest economy of the world with population of 1.4 billion.
Yes, bombing them will win the war - the moment Taiwan looses the air (and they will loose it, let's be realistic) the moment those AShM's become the next target. Pure ground-based AA won't stop all incoming bombing. It is not like landing ships would be used on day one... The closeness of Taiwan to mainland works against them as well, close enough for Chinese fighters to make sorties - opposite wouldn't happen, there simply are not enough planes on the island to be spent on such counter attacks.

Taiwan has some modern equipment, some okayish and the rest half of it is outdated and worn out in all senses of the word (M-48's in 2021, no comment). Recent purchases will also take years and years to be delivered and implemented, nor is there enough of them.

As for how it would go? Look to the recent news - J-7 fighters flying around Taiwan. Seems someone took lessons of the second Karabakh war to heart, with the only difference that Azeris used An-2's, Chinese will use J-7's.

And finally... PRC should be able to absorb significant losses. If they win those won't really matter anymore anyway (again, 2nd Karabakh war aftermath). Without USA there is no hope.

China engaging in a hot-war over Taiwan is pretty lala fantasy world, too. Hot wars between developed nations is like, a massively bad idea given how closely interconnected our economies are. Plenty of chest thumping, posturing, grandiose language etc., but that's about it.

I hope you are right but I think you are incredibly naive. Time when PRC made iddle threats has long passed. Rhetoric about Taiwan has been increasingly belligerent during last 5 years or so. The buildup is here, both litteral and metaphorical. I doubt China would suddenly step back and change course. "Question" of Taiwan will be "resolved" during next decade, my 2 cents.
Interconnected? Exactly - you will have some sanctions, strong words and the overall trade will continue.

[PC2]

The buildup is here, both litteral and metaphorical. I doubt China would suddenly step back and change course. "Question" of Taiwan will be "resolved" during next decade, my 2 cents.

They might have no other choice other than to step back. All we have to do over time is find more ways to punish the CCP such that the reward of conquering Taiwan is smaller than the costs they incur. People act like they're invincible when the only noteable thing the CCP has ever had is a population advantage.

[Elegiac]

They might have no other choice other than to step back. All we have to do over time is find more ways to punish the CCP such that the reward of conquering Taiwan is smaller than the costs they incur. People act like they're invincible when the only notable thing the CCP has ever had is a population advantage.

Bruh you lot couldn't even sustain a *domestic* military occupation to fully excise slavery and its related institutions, what the fuck makes you think you'll be able to hold Taiwan long term? Lol.

[uuuhname]

They might have no other choice other than to step back. All we have to do over time is find more ways to punish the CCP such that the reward of conquering Taiwan is smaller than the costs they incur. People act like they're invincible when the only notable thing the CCP has ever had is a population advantage.

"the only notable thing Russia has ever had is the winter advantage." yeah, good luck with that.

[Easo]

They might have no other choice other than to step back. All we have to do over time is find more ways to punish the CCP such that the reward of conquering Taiwan is smaller than the costs they incur. People act like they're invincible when the only notable thing the CCP has ever had is a population advantage.

It also has 2nd biggest economy, influence tentacles on about 1/3 of the world, nukes and huge ass armed forces. In Mao times they indeed only had population advantage, those times have passed.

Bruh you lot couldn't even sustain a *domestic* military occupation to fully excise slavery and its related institutions, what the fuck makes you think you'll be able to hold Taiwan long term? Lol.

Uhh, I think he was talking about PRC occyping China, not anybody else.

[Omega10]

I wonder if people who think this way masturbate to the idea of global genocide. You think there's enough psychopaths in the US military that they want to be responsible for killing off at least 2 billion people on this planet?

There are certainly some. I clicked on some of the links that Skroe used to post.

Conventional War between the US and China - mostly a draw, with pretty much the whole country of Japan being collateral damage due to our air and naval bases covering pretty much the whole compact country. The entire scenarios were about the US bombing China, with the general consensus that we would do more damage to them then they would to us since we would decimate their coastal cities. In the meantime, return fire from China seemed to obliterate all of the naval units we sent there, and their attacks on our air and naval bases in Japan would do as much damage to Japanese cities as was done to Chinese cities. Except that these coastal Chinese cities that would be burning is a large part, but not all, of China, whereas the Japanese cities destroyed would be pretty much all of Japan. Obviously there would be no Chinese navy after the war.

Nuclear first strike against Russia - one article went on at length about the idea that if the US could limit the number of Russian nuclear bombs to land in the US to 60, that a nuclear first strike against Russia would be a wise and good decision. Russia would be completely exterminated, and the US could easily recover from the damage of 60 nuclear bombs going off on US soil. The article that described this was quite involved and detailed about what the US could and could not do to get that number down to 60, with a little about how to target our nuclear force against Russia for maximum effect.

So presumably there are US plans that have been put together for a first strike against Russia, presumably for one against China, and most likely one against both simultaneously. And presumably there are also multiple plans on how we would take on China without nukes.

I don't know what it would take for any of these scenarios to become reality. I'm just happy that as of right now, none of them have been activated. It is clear that most Americans will be cheering for a maximum body count should activation happen.

[Ashnazg]

Nuclear first strike against Russia - one article went on at length about the idea that if the US could limit the number of Russian nuclear bombs to land in the US to 60, that a nuclear first strike against Russia would be a wise and good decision. Russia would be completely exterminated, and the US could easily recover from the damage of 60 nuclear bombs going off on US soil. The article that described this was quite involved and detailed about what the US could and could not do to get that number down to 60, with a little about how to target our nuclear force against Russia for maximum effect.

The thing about US that works in its advantage is how spread out some of the existential resources / manufacturing capacity is. For example, if New York, LA, Seattle and San Fran disappear in a cloud of radioactive ash, the farms, croplands and manufacturing industry in the heartland of America is largely unaffected. Since it would be folly to aim nukes at states like Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, etc, its almost a given that a large portion of US population and manufacturing / farming capacity will survive. What will likely perish are the intellectual / financial / technological hubs on the coasts. This would basically ensure that the next center of technology and innovation moves to Asia and stays there for the foreseeable future, similar to what happened to Europe post WW2.

It would be extremely hard for an attacker to conquer Russia without being punished by the rest of the world. The same goes for Taiwan except Taiwan has way less natural resources in comparison, so China would have to make a big sacrifice for a small reward.

China isn't dependent on the rest of the world for anything except a market for its goods. Its resources are largely provided by its neighbor to the North who will certainly continue supplying China with necessary items. The only countries that are likely to sanction China due to its potential occupation of Taiwan would be the "Western" world, and I am sure China could absorb that blow. Not to mention that it would be a double-edged sword for US and its allies, since they're quite reliant on China.

[Omega10]

The thing about US that works in its advantage is how spread out some of the existential resources / manufacturing capacity is. For example, if New York, LA, Seattle and San Fran disappear in a cloud of radioactive ash, the farms, croplands and manufacturing industry in the heartland of America is largely unaffected. Since it would be folly to aim nukes at states like Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, etc, its almost a given that a large portion of US population and manufacturing / farming capacity will survive. What will likely perish are the intellectual / financial / technological hubs on the coasts. This would basically ensure that the next center of technology and innovation moves to Asia and stays there for the foreseeable future, similar to what happened to Europe post WW2.

Most likely Russia or China would do precisely as you described here. However, I could see them prioritizing transportation hubs - every bridge across the Mississippi River along with selected north/south highway junctions and the US would be divided geographically. Or go after oil refineries, or airplane manufacturing cities such as Seattle (well actually Everett), Wichita, St. Louis, and Charleston. Or they could target our nuclear power plants to maximize radiation, or go after our water supplies such as our dams and places such as Lake Meade (well - some of the pipes used to transport water AWAY from Lake Meade).

Either way, I seriously hope these kinds of options are NOT activated!

[Rasulis]

So you think China should have bigger invasion fleet than even USA has (which would imply USA can't navally invade anyone, which is untrue)? Doubtful. There is zero chance that a 23 million nation can successfully defend against second biggest economy of the world with population of 1.4 billion.
Yes, bombing them will win the war - the moment Taiwan looses the air (and they will loose it, let's be realistic) the moment those AShM's become the next target. Pure ground-based AA won't stop all incoming bombing. It is not like landing ships would be used on day one... The closeness of Taiwan to mainland works against them as well, close enough for Chinese fighters to make sorties - opposite wouldn't happen, there simply are not enough planes on the island to be spent on such counter attacks.

Taiwan has some modern equipment, some okayish and the rest half of it is outdated and worn out in all senses of the word (M-48's in 2021, no comment). Recent purchases will also take years and years to be delivered and implemented, nor is there enough of them.

As for how it would go? Look to the recent news - J-7 fighters flying around Taiwan. Seems someone took lessons of the second Karabakh war to heart, with the only difference that Azeris used An-2's, Chinese will use J-7's.

And finally... PRC should be able to absorb significant losses. If they win those won't really matter anymore anyway (again, 2nd Karabakh war aftermath). Without USA there is no hope.



I hope you are right but I think you are incredibly naive. Time when PRC made iddle threats has long passed. Rhetoric about Taiwan has been increasingly belligerent during last 5 years or so. The buildup is here, both litteral and metaphorical. I doubt China would suddenly step back and change course. "Question" of Taiwan will be "resolved" during next decade, my 2 cents.
Interconnected? Exactly - you will have some sanctions, strong words and the overall trade will continue.

The US still has dozens of amphibious assault ships. Would the US military ever consider an amphibious attack? Only if they have no other choice. History has shown that against an informed and prepared defender, the casualties during an amphibious attack is staggering. The advantage is with the defender. Taiwan had 60 years to prepare against a Chinese invasion.

The last major US military amphibious operation was Inchon, South Korea in 1950. The attack involved around 300 naval vessels and the US caught the North Korean by surprise. Otherwise it could have turned very bad for McArthur. There will be no surprise attack across the Taiwanese Strait.

The battle of Okinawa inflicted heavy casualties in term of both men and equipment. The US lost12 destroyers, 15 amphibious ships, 9 support ships, and 386 ships were damaged.

D-day involved 7,000 ships and the first wave of troops at Omaha Beach suffered in excess of 50%, some divisions up to 90%, casualties.

That was facing World War II weaponry such as rifles, machine guns and unguided artillery. Not modern smart weapons. No land-based anti-ship guided missiles. No sub-sonic cruise missiles. During the Falkland War, Argentine sank British ships with Exocet missiles. The most antiquated missiles in Taiwan arsenal are leaps and bounds more advanced than Argentine's Exocets.

[jonnysensible]

snip

drone strikes vs defenders = a bad time.