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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Including claiming that the "model of the future" is correct, it is just "misunderstood".

    The original LTG contained the following predictions for "business as usual":
    • Global Industrial output per capita reaches a peak around 2008, followed by a rapid decline. In 2017 industrial output increased 3% compared to 1% for population.
    • Global Food per capita reaches a peak around 2020, followed by a rapid decline. Current projections by environmentalist see a continued increase at least to 2030.
    • Global Services per capita reaches a peak around 2020, followed by a rapid decline. Doesn't seem likely, although there's currently a decline in travel and hospitality.
    Those dates were predicted on the assumption that consumption and growth trends wouldn't change from the 1970 models.

    The conclusion of the study itself stated that the dates are subject to change, and that even sustainability is achievable if certain measures are taken.

    The new model done by KPMG essentially just states that the original conclusions were correct once you input the minimum of effort we've made to delay the inevitable.

    Nevertheless we're still on track to burning ourselves out before technology could save us.
    Quote Originally Posted by Orlong View Post
    It doesnt destroy the land to bury styrofoam 25 feet below the ground
    Today Obama once again kneeled at the altar of environmental naziism and hurt this once great country. He has now banned all drilling in the Atlantic Ocean

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Hellobolis View Post
    it takes a couple decades for technology to actually become widespread.
    What technology?

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Cool story.

    1) Decarbonization is already within our technological means. It's entirely a function of administrative or political inaction.

    2) We don't have a couple of decades, regardless, because of how much time was and still is being wasted as a result of Point 1.
    climate change isn't going to collapse civilization, certainly not within 20 years. only complete biosphere collapse will cause civilization collapse, and even if we have started an irreversible process towards that, it'll take a couple centuries to kill off the earth even if we tried.

  4. #24

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadowferal View Post
    What technology?
    the ones you cut out of the quote?

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Hellobolis View Post
    the ones you cut out of the quote?
    Oh you mean the magic shit that isn't working now...

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadowferal View Post
    Oh you mean the magic shit that isn't working now...
    take a look at the netherlands. tiny country, second largest agricultural export in the world. and you mean to tell me there is going to be a bottleneck on food in the next 20 years? yeah right.

    if solar panels won't work, nuclear always will. if push really comes to shove with fossil fuels we'll just swap to that. but the whole green energy thing is obviously never going to completely take over, but it can certainly lower the load on other systems.

    and if you are going to deny that the internet/GPS/mobile devices have changed the world on a fundamental level, and that that technology hasn't fully peaked yet, we'll yeah then i guess the world is doomed.

  8. #28
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hellobolis View Post
    climate change isn't going to collapse civilization
    Something disproved by literally every civilization that has collapsed as a result of climate change.
    Every heartwarming human interest story in America is like "he raised $20,000 to keep 200 orphans from being crushed in the orphan-crushing machine" and then never asks why an orphan-crushing machine exists or why you'd need to pay to prevent it from being used.

    Quote Originally Posted by Specialka View Post
    so ? Teacher is about teaching, not education.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    Those dates were predicted on the assumption that consumption and growth trends wouldn't change from the 1970 models.
    Which was a ridiculous assumption and gave incorrect results.

    Now they try to change the assumption and gets a new result - but it doesn't seem more reliable than the original one.
    This is looking like the forbidden topic of religions predicting the imminent end of the world for almost two millennia - and every time it doesn't happen the date is adjusted; and people think that the original prediction was still good.

  10. #30
    we're going up 4 degrees by 2100 imo. Likely to be taking a big L civilization wise.

  11. #31
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonnysensible View Post
    we're going up 4 degrees by 2100 imo. Likely to be taking a big L civilization wise.
    I really don't get why people are still of the belief that capitalism as a system is remotely compatible with sustainable civilization.

    How exactly one reconciles "must constantly be growing or be at risk of collapse" with "we have a finite amount of resources that can be extracted at a given time without consequence" is beyond me.
    Every heartwarming human interest story in America is like "he raised $20,000 to keep 200 orphans from being crushed in the orphan-crushing machine" and then never asks why an orphan-crushing machine exists or why you'd need to pay to prevent it from being used.

    Quote Originally Posted by Specialka View Post
    so ? Teacher is about teaching, not education.

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    I really don't get why people are still of the belief that capitalism as a system is remotely compatible with sustainable civilization.

    How exactly one reconciles "must constantly be growing or be at risk of collapse" with "we have a finite amount of resources that can be extracted at a given time without consequence" is beyond me.
    they seem to think after we're done using all our resources here we can do what they do in IDK Dead Space and just go off to other planets and take resources from there.

  13. #33
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by uuuhname View Post
    they seem to think after we're done using all our resources here we can do what they do in IDK Dead Space and just go off to other planets and take resources from there.
    Which is as stupid an argument as saying you don't need to brush your teeth because implants exist.

    Socially, it would cost far less than our present way of doing things; but it wouldn't permit the obscene amounts of personal wealth we see today, so that's bad (for Reasons™).

    Part of it is that people assume they are wealthy because they have access to lots of Stuff™ when in actuality they're just slightly more privileged drones. They have no conception of what the ruling class in the West actually looks like.
    Every heartwarming human interest story in America is like "he raised $20,000 to keep 200 orphans from being crushed in the orphan-crushing machine" and then never asks why an orphan-crushing machine exists or why you'd need to pay to prevent it from being used.

    Quote Originally Posted by Specialka View Post
    so ? Teacher is about teaching, not education.

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Which is as stupid an argument as saying you don't need to brush your teeth because implants exist.

    Socially, it would cost far less than our present way of doing things; but it wouldn't permit the obscene amounts of personal wealth we see today, so that's bad (for Reasons™).

    Part of it is that people assume they are wealthy because they have access to lots of Stuff™ when in actuality they're just slightly more privileged drones. They have no conception of what the ruling class in the West actually looks like.
    going by how the uber rich like Elon Musk thinks of people in general it should be a giant red flag, or how Jeff Bezos doesn't want you to have a life outside of work. like they can't even be bothered to hide the fact they see everyone beneath them as automatons that only exist to make them richer. the contempt could not be any more obvious.

  15. #35
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by uuuhname View Post
    going by how the uber rich like Elon Musk thinks of people in general it should be a giant red flag, or how Jeff Bezos doesn't want you to have a life outside of work. like they can't even be bothered to hide the fact they see everyone beneath them as automatons that only exist to make them richer. the contempt could not be any more obvious.
    Nooooo but you see if you criticise a despot for being despotic it must mean because you're jealous of not being a despot yourself. /s
    Every heartwarming human interest story in America is like "he raised $20,000 to keep 200 orphans from being crushed in the orphan-crushing machine" and then never asks why an orphan-crushing machine exists or why you'd need to pay to prevent it from being used.

    Quote Originally Posted by Specialka View Post
    so ? Teacher is about teaching, not education.

  16. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by Elegiac View Post
    Nooooo but you see if you criticise a despot for being despotic it must mean because you're jealous of not being a despot yourself. /s
    oh god please you might actually summon the one who unironically argues this...

  17. #37
    Elemental Lord KuerbisgeschmackShake's Avatar
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    Is this just like one of the "New US Civil War-Wish-Fulfilment-Threads"? But with extra steps.

    I think what they're really saying, "Me and my Very Online Friends will hoard all of the cool podcasting jobs in the New World Order."

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Which was a ridiculous assumption and gave incorrect results.

    Now they try to change the assumption and gets a new result - but it doesn't seem more reliable than the original one.
    This is looking like the forbidden topic of religions predicting the imminent end of the world for almost two millennia - and every time it doesn't happen the date is adjusted; and people think that the original prediction was still good.
    You can move the dates by a decade or two, through certain breakthroughs and such but we are still very much on track to burning our house to ground. The model doesn't claim "inevitable end of the world" scenarios. On the contrary. It's simply saying we aren't doing enough to prevent it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Milchshake View Post
    Is this just like one of the "New US Civil War-Wish-Fulfilment-Threads"? But with extra steps.

    I think what they're really saying, "Me and my Very Online Friends will hoard all of the cool podcasting jobs in the New World Order."
    You haven't read the article have you? Or have you recently signed up to the climate change will magically fix itselfbandwagon?
    Quote Originally Posted by Orlong View Post
    It doesnt destroy the land to bury styrofoam 25 feet below the ground
    Today Obama once again kneeled at the altar of environmental naziism and hurt this once great country. He has now banned all drilling in the Atlantic Ocean

  19. #39
    Void Lord Elegiac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Milchshake View Post
    Is this just like one of the "New US Civil War-Wish-Fulfilment-Threads"?
    No, this is a "climate change is an existential threat to civilization and our current civilization does not have adequate institutions to deal with said existential threat" thread.
    Every heartwarming human interest story in America is like "he raised $20,000 to keep 200 orphans from being crushed in the orphan-crushing machine" and then never asks why an orphan-crushing machine exists or why you'd need to pay to prevent it from being used.

    Quote Originally Posted by Specialka View Post
    so ? Teacher is about teaching, not education.

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by Mihalik View Post
    You can move the dates by a decade or two, through certain breakthroughs and such but we are still very much on track to burning our house to ground.
    A bold statement - backed up by very little.

    If we look at the new report it's actually not predicting that we will burn the house to the ground.
    Instead it sees two possibilities: either a collapse or a that high technology development allow us to stabilize society at a high level - and this difference will be clear by 2050.

    That's just a vague prediction - but it clearly suggests that the paper tells us that the best solution seems to be to make that high technological development the reality. It's just that "society will collapse" generates more clicks.

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