Fate of Afghanistan, Taliban resurgence

[Gaidax]

I don't believe that western forces presented the better option. The local pedophile police that they propped up were certainly not looked upon as a "good" option.

I think you don't quite understand what locals think a "good option" is.

This is practically the core of the Soviet and US failure.

[Shadowferal]

I think you don't quite understand what locals think a "good option" is. This is practically the core of the Soviet and US failure.

Raping children crosses a line.

[Gaidax]

Raping children crosses a line.

Not like child brides or whipping women for tempting men with them evil clothes any better.

But mostly I was talking about "democracy" or "socialism" or other western values. These things take time and rolling in with tanks and flipping the switch does not work, you're just perceived as some heathen and from there the path to popular restance is short.

Planting flag in some cities and saying this is what freedom feels like when most of the country is villages and tribes with hundreds to thousands years old traditions that clash with western culture hard. That's not going to work.

[Shadowferal]

Not like child brides or whipping women for tempting men with them evil clothes any better.

"Our side" doesn't have an argument when complaints are ignored in favor of continued villainy. A show of zero tolerance and mideast justice might have gotten us further. Of course I can't know that for certain. I can only play "what if" now. But I've never known a loss of respect for taking a principled stand. And I should wonder if leadership had supported the US soldiers that wanted the same would we still be there? And since that's not the case I believe we should have left with heads held high, rather than rushing out with our tails between our legs...as beaten curs.

[Gaidax]

"Our side" doesn't have an argument when complaints are ignored in favor of continued villainy. A show of zero tolerance and mideast justice might have gotten us further. Of course I can't know that for certain. I can only play "what if" now. But I've never known a loss of respect for taking a principled stand. And I should wonder if leadership had supported the US soldiers that wanted the same would we still be there? And since that's not the case I believe we should have left with heads held high, rather than rushing out with our tails between our legs...as beaten curs.

But that's the point - in the end you need these people and that's how they roll, because that's how they rolled for centuries. It's a country where every little git with some power is a king of the village and is right, until a little bigger git with bigger stick comes bonks him on the head and becomes new king. Eventually you hopefully weed it out and bring public morals and ideas to more appropriate point from a western standpoint. But this takes A LONG time.

You legit need to become a colonialist power and mandate the country for a good half a century or more before the populace changes a few generations and starts to absorb your culture and ethics.

US for sure should either have withdrawn few years after getting into this mess with "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" stickers and shit -or- clenched its balls and stayed for 50 years more just to wait out for few generations to pass and hopefully proliferate western ideals in that region.

Eventually it would still be kicked out like Brits would be, but maybe then Afghanistan would become India or worse case Pakistan (which is still better than this). Not perfect, but functional state you can reasonably deal with.

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Reminds me of some person in this thread telling a story about Afghan grunt smashing some kid's face with rifle butt because he filmed US soldier and his dad runs in and beats him some more. Terrible sight for Western person, absolutely normal for person who was born and grown there - power is king, even if it's just some overzealous foot soldier with a gun.

And the guy said how they were not allowed to interfere - no shit, you don't even speak their bloody language let alone understand how these people think and roll.

It's like another case where Taliban just few days ago rolled into village and massacred some men. When asked "why?" they responded "it's war, so it's how it is ("duuuh, what a silly question lulz")".

So yeah, it's how it is there.

[Shadowferal]

But that's the point - in the end you need these people and that's how they roll, because that's how they rolled for centuries..

I think you missed a post:

Oh, thats not all they turned a blind eye too. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/21/w...e-of-boys.html

This is what I meant about wanting US leadership supporting soldiers that wanted to take a more principled stand. A stand that seemed more aligned with locals.

[Breccia]

Have to wonder at how bad things became that the Taliban became the better option.

You mean, in US lives or US dollars? We definitely didn't leave because it was the moral/ethical thing to do for the innocent people of the region.

[Glorious Leader]

But that's the point - in the end you need these people and that's how they roll, because that's how they rolled for centuries. It's a country where every little git with some power is a king of the village and is right, until a little bigger git with bigger stick comes bonks him on the head and becomes new king.

What you're describing here are the orkz from w40k down to the use of the word "git" and not actual people or their relationships to one and other.

[Shadowferal]

You mean, in US lives or US dollars? We definitely didn't leave because it was the moral/ethical thing to do for the innocent people of the region.

I thought my posts above were pretty clear where I stood regarding ethics/morality. I mean anyone...anywhere, not just there, looking the other way, ignoring a child getting raped is complicit... Had that captain mentioned in the NY Times link didn't simply body slam that Afghan policeman, but shot him in the head instead...? I can't say I wouldnt have cheered. Sounds harsh in a civil perspective, but there... An immediate death penalty should be expected from a military viewpoint.

[Specialka]

What you're describing here are the orkz from w40k down to the use of the word "git" and not actual people or their relationships to one and other.

Is that not how it works in Afghanistan ? We are not that far from that.

[Theodarzna]

Not like child brides or whipping women for tempting men with them evil clothes any better.

But mostly I was talking about "democracy" or "socialism" or other western values. These things take time and rolling in with tanks and flipping the switch does not work, you're just perceived as some heathen and from there the path to popular restance is short.

Planting flag in some cities and saying this is what freedom feels like when most of the country is villages and tribes with hundreds to thousands years old traditions that clash with western culture hard. That's not going to work.

It doesn't help that Afghanistan became mainly a way to shuffle money into Defense Contractors and big ticket cash infusions to Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and the rest. Ignoring even the direct interests of the people there, the Afghan government was horrendously corrupt and not in a way that provided broad based prosperity or even basic security. The American occupation killed a fuck ton of Afghans, was devastating for the population. It turns out America's much vaunted experts, our technocrats, our big brain people were mostly skilled in enriching key allies and supporters, wasting money, fleecing the Afghans and the American tax payer and couldn't manage to get around to doing anything for Afghanistan.

The Soviets at least produced a State that had a Social Base and actual supporters that were willing to fight for it for a little while longer. The fact is the "Afghan State" was a sham, it wasn't real. The Army after 20 years didn't even exist, and all Afghanistan was was a means for the Tzeentchian labyrinth of Pentagon budgeting to move several trillion dollars into some key corporations and their supporters. Anyone who read the Afghanistan Papers would have been well aware of this fact. But that is the truth about most US interventions, they aren't about winning much of anything despite the borderline millinnerian messianic pretensions of some of the Uber-Liberals with fantasies of rainbow flags and Women and Girls or whatever and fulfilling the prophecies of Francis Fukuyama and other crack heads from the Reagan Admin, this war as most American military actions are just a way to move money through the only spigot that still pushes cash into the hands of key supporters of the American state. The military Industrial Complex, like Finance are hidden behind unaudited black boxes were money is simply shoveled in a doled out to whoever.

[PC2]

I think Biden made a good move. The people there were not happy with us so it's best to let them work things out. They should hate the Taliban and then ask us to bomb them to smithereens.

Democracy and consensual governance is still more eminent than ever, imo, but they need to work up to it and build up knowledge of institutions *incrementally*. Those improvements must come from within.

[Gaidax]

What you're describing here are the orkz from w40k down to the use of the word "git" and not actual people or their relationships to one and other.

https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/git

Happy to help.

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It doesn't help that Afghanistan became mainly a way to shuffle money into Defense Contractors and big ticket cash infusions to Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and the rest. Ignoring even the direct interests of the people there, the Afghan government was horrendously corrupt and not in a way that provided broad based prosperity or even basic security. The American occupation killed a fuck ton of Afghans, was devastating for the population. It turns out America's much vaunted experts, our technocrats, our big brain people were mostly skilled in enriching key allies and supporters, wasting money, fleecing the Afghans and the American tax payer and couldn't manage to get around to doing anything for Afghanistan.

The Soviets at least produced a State that had a Social Base and actual supporters that were willing to fight for it for a little while longer. The fact is the "Afghan State" was a sham, it wasn't real. The Army after 20 years didn't even exist, and all Afghanistan was was a means for the Tzeentchian labyrinth of Pentagon budgeting to move several trillion dollars into some key corporations and their supporters. Anyone who read the Afghanistan Papers would have been well aware of this fact. But that is the truth about most US interventions, they aren't about winning much of anything despite the borderline millinnerian messianic pretensions of some of the Uber-Liberals with fantasies of rainbow flags and Women and Girls or whatever and fulfilling the prophecies of Francis Fukuyama and other crack heads from the Reagan Admin, this war as most American military actions are just a way to move money through the only spigot that still pushes cash into the hands of key supporters of the American state. The military Industrial Complex, like Finance are hidden behind unaudited black boxes were money is simply shoveled in a doled out to whoever.

I mean... yes.

I agree with this. It's just a bit sad that you have some bumpkins from Springfield from the middle of Nowhere being rolled over there being sold stories about how they are glorious and amazing freedom spreaders to get blown up by some IEDs just so that some bunch of upper management can finance a new yacht.

I'm sure there were people that tried, but ultimately I'm also sure that a huge amount of it was a cynical "we found a convenient way to finance our military industry behemoth some more that we can actually sell to unwashed masses."

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Though I would be wary of turning Soviets in some kind of saviors there. Afghanistan originally was destabilized by communist cells supported by Soviet Union, which hilariously enough started fighting one another for supremacy.

Afghanistan is the country that suffered greatly from these superpower games. Sure, Soviets left it with government, but it would have been much better if they would never even started messing with it in 50s to begin with. Not that US are blameless,

Taliban is like grand-children of Mujahedeen US supplied and armed to the teeth. Hilariously enough, one of the Taliban's pitches is "help us to do with invaders what our fathers and grandfathers did"

[Theodarzna]

I mean... yes.

I agree with this. It's just a bit sad that you have some bumpkins from Springfield from the middle of Nowhere being rolled over there being sold stories about how they are glorious and amazing freedom spreaders to get blown up by some IEDs just so that some bunch of upper management can finance a new yacht.

I'm sure there were people that tried, but ultimately I'm also sure that a huge amount of it was a cynical "we found a convenient way to finance our military industry behemoth some more that we can actually sell to unwashed masses."

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Though I would be wary of turning Soviets in some kind of saviors there. Afghanistan originally was destabilized by communist cells supported by Soviet Union, which hilariously enough started fighting one another for supremacy.

I cannot say how much of America's elite was getting "High on their own Supply", I'd say for sure the NGO set and a lot of the middling apparatchiks might have really though they were going to bomb and then flood with money a country to make a newly minted America clone right there in central Asia. Somebody out there must believe Francis Fukuyama's shit otherwise he'd stop getting think tank jobs and speaking gigs. I'd say Afghanistan became a way to funnel money into political supporters. Be it defense contractors, mercenaries, NGO's, a vast tangled web to shovel money and ensure it went to the right people. Hell the Afghan papers themselves suggest eighty percent of the money poured into that country never even got into the hands of Afghans.

For all the croaking about Afghans corrupt warlords and opium lords and its cartoonishly fake "Government" and "Army", in the end the vast majority of fraud and grift was done by America's elite against the American and Afghan people. As for the Soviets, I mention them mainly because at least their little project lasted more then five minutes after they left.

[Gaidax]

in the end the vast majority of fraud and grift was done by America's elite against the American and Afghan people.

Spread some freedom and earn $$ from it, what's not to like, amirite?

I think that ultimately this shit will catch up with US and something will have to give. Afghanistan is not the hour of reckoning for the US, but it can afford just so many other Afghanistans before things start spinning out of control even for US.

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For USSR, Afghanistan was that (pretty damn heavy) straw that broke the camel's back. Nevermind nice pictures and parades - it is a national wound that still did not really heal.

[Corvus]

Raping children crosses a line.

Because the Taliban don't rape 12 year old girls by forcing them into child marriages and then burn women to death for failing to cook a good meal.

Oh wait, they do. And a lot more.

In this regards it was like siding with Stalin over Hitler. Yes Stalin was evil but nowhere near the level of Hitler.

Which is why the locals are starting to resist the Taliban. The Taliban only number around 80000, which is not enough to hold the country and leaves them vulnerable to guerrilla warfare. Being good at fighting as one does not equate to being good at fighting against it.

And they may have just found out the hard way. They posted on twitter they were going to attack resistance forces and included video of a convoy of technicals on route. And to the surprise of no-one they got ambushed on the way. A BBC reporter on twitter spoke of unconfirmed reports of 300 casualties including 70 dead.

And if they try for Panjshir like it looks like they will, it's going to be a disaster for them. The only way into the valley is through a very narrow gorge that can be fired on from multiple directions and can only allow one vehicle or a dozen men along at a time. There is a reason that for the last 40 years no one has been able to conquer it, not even the Soviets.

[Theodarzna]

Spread some freedom and earn $$ from it, what's not to like, amirite?

I think that ultimately this shit will catch up with US and something will have to give. Afghanistan is not the hour of reckoning for the US, but it can afford just so many other Afghanistans before things start spinning out of control even for US.

I think it is ultimately another black mark on the legitimization of how this country operates. Our Elites also it turns out cannot win a war either; they can loot the treasury. Our Expert Managers, our glorious technocrats have proven now multiple times they are very good at looting and enriching themselves and their friends. They cannot run an economy or give us broad based prosperity, and their promises of being able to remake other countries in the US' image also it turns out were bogus and in the end like with 2008 and the economy, they mostly are just experts at looting.

[JohnBrown1917]

Because the Taliban don't rape 12 year old girls by forcing them into child marriages and then burn women to death for failing to cook a good meal.

Oh wait, they do. And a lot more.

In this regards it was like siding with Stalin over Hitler. Yes Stalin was evil but nowhere near the level of Hitler.

The main reason the US sided with Stalin over Hitler was because they had a common enemy, the axis.

The situation here can hardly be compared to it because the US has no reason to be in Afghanistan beyond funneling more money into the military industrial complex.

[Theodarzna]

Because the Taliban don't rape 12 year old girls by forcing them into child marriages and then burn women to death for failing to cook a good meal.

Didn't the United States basically turn a blind eye to our "Allies" having pre-pubescent boys as sex slaves for the last two decades? Lets not act as if America cares too much about that stuff.

I'll also point out the Living Saints at Wikileaks long ago leaked that the CIA felt Feminism might be the best way we can keep support for a forever war in Afghanistan going. So congrats on being psyop'd bro. Not to say life under the Taliban will be good for women in a relative sense, but is Afghanistan really America's problem? Its not on America's border.

[Zython]

It is hard to explain it properly without also giving a lengthy explanation of how the combat support system works over there as well as how our command chain and supply chains function... But as simple as I can put it: We taught them how we grow trees, showed them how much water to use, and where to plant them. Then, overnight, we took the water and burned the ground and then said "have fun growing the apples" after they finally had their first tree grown. And then people wondered why the Afghan's.. no longer having water provided, and no longer having the ground.. didn't try to grow more trees.

Ok, so from what I gathered from this (and other sources) is that the regime military what fully dependant on the US military infrastructure for day-to-day operations of their defenses.

Here's the thing: that means the regime itself was fully dependent on the US, rather than the US helping build an independent armed forces. This is extremely damning to the entire stated purpose of the war in the first place. There was never any nation-building going on. It was colonialism from the start.