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  1. #61
    Interesting how almost no one argued about the points in the video but jumped to ad hominem.

  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by BossManRoth View Post
    His data presented does not match his source.
    When you write like this, you should bring data otherwise is like Izen barking

  3. #63
    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    Seen that and it's sort of a hit and miss.

    The China point is correct, so in reality the real sub numbers are quite a lot higher and it's not like Chinese aren't people or something. I'm sure that other game counts them as well in their chest thumping.

    On the other hand, there are no real claims to be built from higher Painsmith and Sylvanas kills in Mythic or lower difficulties, because SoD is massively undertuned compared to CN. Painsmith is not only the first wall, but the only wall in the whole raid, where as in CN after council - Sludge and especially bloody Stone Legion Generals

    And yes I'm talking about this as a mythic raider in a guild that down Painsmith. We legit killed Guardian in sub 1 hour after killing Painsmith and Fatescribe in about 2 hours after that. KT is nothing to write home about either. It's a joke.

    So trying to say just because we recorded more M.Sylv kills than M.Dena kills for the period as some sort of talking point is silly, because 2 raids are vastly different when it comes to difficulty curve.
    Trying to do serious estimate from unofficial data is joke from the start. Maybe it would be useful to detect general trend if there is more or less subs overall, but we all know this trend. ~3.5M pre-order expansion, ~10M play first months, in few months ~50% quit, some few months after last patch, rest return for pre-patch. Rinse and repeat.

    To really judge expansion from this POV we would have to get really detailed data to detect subtle changes in every expansion cycle.

    That's why we should only focus on judging expansion from our perspective. Not based by some number. Not base by someone's popular opinion. And if you want it reach Blizzard, feedback must be really specific on top of this.

  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by Caprias1212 View Post
    Interesting how almost no one argued about the points in the video but jumped to ad hominem.
    Izen did a clickbait video and got debunked hard

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by TBCCLOL View Post
    When you write like this, you should bring data otherwise is like Izen barking
    https://wowranks.io/stats

    its not hard for you to go to his source as well...

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  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by BossManRoth View Post
    https://wowranks.io/stats

    its not hard for you to go to his source as well...
    Still i dont see any "here is why it is wrong if you..."


    Because as is stated on the page



    These stats are limited by how fast website can scan character data from the Blizzard API. It takes a week or two to refresh.

    Covenant stats are also limited to characters that had been active in the last 28 days and logged in at least once after 2021-07-01 (around 9.1 launch). This is done to avoid abandoned alts and to keep data as recent as possible.


    At best we can see that in the video he said there were like 2.9 milion at 2nd august and now at 22 aug there are 3.1 milion active charaters, well 200k more, still way below 9.0

    '''''''''''

    Also https://wowranks.io/raid-rankings

    1st Boss SoD vs 1st Boss CN Normal is pretty self explanatory like he said in the video so ???
    Last edited by TBCCLOL; 2021-08-22 at 11:45 AM.

  7. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by azka View Post
    Well. Izen had something to say about that video.
    Imagine bashing other content creator for criticizing... by criticizing him, LOL.
    Using clickbait title... to clickbait your own viewers.
    Using other content for your own content.
    ...
    Comments and thumbs seems do not agree with this guy at all too.
    Most hypocrite video i've seen for long time.

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by Kralljin View Post
    Most peope just don't watch the video, see a Yotubuer / Streamer and basically go "fuck that shit", hence most replies are a weird mixture of pure copium and deflections.
    After years on MMO C you have to consider that people hate when you criticize their drug dealer, it is pure copium at this point.

  9. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by det View Post
    Has been apparently "obvious to anyone" since I joined here in 2008 (back then it was dying to casualisation, LFD and Aion) - and folks have been sure to remind us with many many threads and posts every x-pac.

    Ofc WoW is dying and so is everyone here.

    Do I have to drag out this gem again from SEVEN years ago? https://www.mmo-champion.com/threads...2#post29402702

    To quote: "that graph has been independently confirmed by multiple mathematicians. WoW is going to be shut down some time during its next expac - and part of that reason is due to a mass exodus of people leaving for ESO and Wildstar, which far surpass WoW (this is undeniable)"
    Yeah, I was mainly being hyperbolic even if I think the game is in its worst state thus far, it's not dying and it won't for a long time.
    And what if it's not bait? What if it truly is my own unfiltered dogshit opinion, hm? What then?

  10. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by TBCCLOL View Post
    Still i dont see any "here is why it is wrong if you..."


    Because as is stated on the page

    snip

    : These stats are limited by how fast website can scan character data from the Blizzard API. It takes a week or two to refresh.

    Covenant stats are also limited to characters that had been active in the last 28 days and logged in at least once after 2021-07-01 (around 9.1 launch). This is done to avoid abandoned alts and to keep data as recent as possible.
    his data shows appx 2.75 million active characters. granted i dont know when he pulled his data, but currently the site shows 3.17 million characters with a covenant . a difference of 400,000 characters picking a covenant is pretty significant. i dont know what youre trying to argue by pointing out the site refreshes slowly.

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  11. #71
    Quote Originally Posted by BossManRoth View Post
    his data shows appx 2.75 million active characters. granted i dont know when he pulled his data, but currently the site shows 3.17 million characters with a covenant . a difference of 400,000 characters picking a covenant is pretty significant. i dont know what youre trying to argue by pointing out the site refreshes slowly.

    Because you didnt watch the video like 90% of "durrr bellular bad" here, it is literally in the graph the date, people need to wake the fuck up.


    400k is pretty significant sure also this is pretty significatn




    Feb 2 2021 6milion vs Aug 22 2021 3.1 milion

  12. #72
    Stood in the Fire Nak88's Avatar
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    The sky is falling. Time to consider making WoW free-to-play.

  13. #73
    I know we are going to do the normal song and dance of "youtuber dumb" and "made up numbers" but when I log in and look around I have to say.. my eyes support this on all but the most highly populated realms.

  14. #74
    Even with 3milion active characters and who knows how many players, WoW will not die because it will always make money with Tokens and Shop, people assume that wow should still have the 10-12milions players peak, which is wrong, is normal for a game to lose players over the years because n+1 factors, mmorpg are not for the new generations? people grown up? no much time? etc etc

    and that is fine


    but in this case the drop is between the 9.0 and 9.1 , if blizzard can still make tons of money even with 1milion players, they will keep milking and the sky will not fall

  15. #75
    Quote Originally Posted by TBCCLOL View Post
    Because you didnt watch the video like 90% of "durrr bellular bad" here, it is literally in the graph the date, people need to wake the fuck up.


    400k is pretty significant sure also this is pretty significatn

    snip


    Feb 2 2021 6milion vs Aug 22 2021 3.1 milion
    i did watch the video. the only thing this confirms is what blizzard has already been telling us, people come back to check out the xpac and then bounce. but the current trends patch to patch are no different from other patches, just less and less people come back at the start of the xpac. same thing happened in classic. when it launched they had to shard and open extra servers, offer free transfers, the whole bit. but 6 months in classic servers were ghost towns. same thing with tbc, but less people came back to classic than before, so the drop off is starting to look the same, just the starting number wasnt as high. there is no precipitous loss of players, its following the same cycle that the game has been going through for over a decade.

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  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by BossManRoth View Post
    i did watch the video. the only thing this confirms is what blizzard has already been telling us, people come back to check out the xpac and then bounce. but the current trends patch to patch are no different from other patches, just less and less people come back at the start of the xpac.
    We lacks official data from mid expansion (because Blizzard always expose only good news), but enough info from launches to disprove this. It's on the contrary actually. Which is logical, cause on launch many players return to WoW for month to relive some nostalgia and number of WoW ex-players is obviously increasing.

  17. #77
    Quote Originally Posted by TBCCLOL View Post
    '

    Also https://wowranks.io/raid-rankings

    1st Boss SoD vs 1st Boss CN Normal is pretty self explanatory like he said in the video so ???
    You might as well compare the number of guilds who did Atumen and Hydross and claim the game was dying and everyone had stopped playing in BC, or Magmaw and Beth'tilac. It's such a dumb data point to try and estimate anything.

  18. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by Ivarr View Post
    His audience would shrivel without WoW so for him to have some kind of vested interest in the game dying seems a bit suicidal.
    He has been branching into FF already. The clips videos are as much wow as FF.

    He also has a channel for general gaming news.

    He is not so dependent on WoW as you think. If he goes full time on FF he will have an audience.

  19. #79
    Quote Originally Posted by Raisei View Post
    1) Bellular has no insight into sub numbers, these graphs are one and all "estimations" he pulled out of his ass.

    2) Bellular has always made lots of money by joining whichever drama train came through the village. It's his entire shtick. Just look at his video titles and you will realize that he makes money off of repeating the opinions of unhappy people back to them so they feel validated. WoW always had a large unhappy playerbase and Bellular is playing their mouthpiece.

    3) He is an arrogant jackass, that pretends to know about game development because he wants to make a game (which he failed to do for now), so he bashes people that have created multi-billion dollar companies and AAA titles, while in truth he has no clue.

    4) He was clearly paid off by other companies to do this bashing. Amazon has given millions to streamers to promote their stuff, do you really think they wouldn't give money to someone that has already shown more then willing to bash WoW for some extra bashing?

    In short: Bellular is about the least trustworthy source you can possibly have. If you need someone to make your opinion for you, that is fine, but stop pretending like this is the gospel of truth.
    You dont need to be s pilot to see if the plane has crashed

  20. #80
    Quote Originally Posted by BossManRoth View Post
    and thats still only a measure of endgame
    WoW has been a pretty endgame centric game for quite some time now.
    It's not like it's Classic where a casual player needs literal months to level a character and you pretty much pick a covenant after hitting cap if you want to do anything.

    Do you honestly believe there are tens of thousands of players that do not engage with WoW's endgame in any capacity?
    I'm not saying such players don't exist, but i doubt they're such a large group to make a massive difference in the grand scheme of things.
    Quote Originally Posted by BossManRoth View Post
    his raid data is also showing a full 7 month patch cycle compared to a patch that is not even 2 months old.
    That may be a factor when it comes to the final boss, but not the first boss.

    I doubt there are tens of thousands of players that have not killed the 1st boss on Normal within the first weeks of a patch, but then suddenly come around and kill it months afterwards.
    Last edited by Kralljin; 2021-08-22 at 12:35 PM.

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