Bellular analyses WoW's health.

[Mosotti]

WoW is dead again. Holy shit. What is your first WoW death experience? Mine was around 2009 I think, when there was this game called Aion, which supposedly would pretty much kill WoW. Not to forget GW2 which killed WoW in 2013 or so. Now GW2 I think it was a great game, at least until the level cap, but didn’t kill anything.
It’s been several weeks since a lot of people probably jumped to the latest WoW killer, driven by some streamers and the office pussy drama but most of them will be back. I tried it also about a year ago, but fuck me if I could go past level 30.

[Ivarr]

Ironic that the people who incessantly complain about the game, who are also the same ones spamming thread after thread complaining/trashing the game, are the ones accusing others of being addicted.

I see myself more like a junkie complaining about how the stuff no longer is giving the same highs it used to and accusing my drug dealer of cutting it with baking powder.

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It’s been several weeks since a lot of people probably jumped to the latest WoW killer, driven by some streamers and the office pussy drama but most of them will be back. I tried it also about a year ago, but fuck me if I could go past level 30.

I think it's fair to say everyone in this thread will be lining up to buy the next expansion and playing it the minute it goes live.

But until then, the cyclical™ content is staring us in the face.

[vizzle]

all this is is estimations of players at the end game, all with 3rd party data that does not automatically update.

With an almost 20 year old game, I'm pretty sure everyone is at end game, buddy. There isn't a secret batch of 1 million players still leveling their mains for the first time.

[Pann]

Assuming those numbers don't include WoW China subs I don't think they are totally unreasonable although I think the lower number is rather pessimistic. Given that WoW had 5.5million subs when they stopped releasing the numbers, six years ago and assuming that western subs still account for just under half the total subs I think that it is possible that, at this stage in its life, total WoW subs are sitting around the 3.5-4million mark.

[Accendor]

Thats actually a pretty good and realistic analyses. It's not 100% accurate ofc, but he never claimed that in the first place.
Some people will not like it, but that's simply how it looks right now.

btw. I'm one of the hardcore addicts that counts for 7 active characters and I don't even like Shadowlands.

[Sorrowseer]

I dislike bellular, he is bad

[valax]

4) He was clearly paid off by other companies to do this bashing. Amazon has given millions to streamers to promote their stuff, do you really think they wouldn't give money to someone that has already shown more then willing to bash WoW for some extra bashing?

Why pay for something you get free already

[Nerovar]

I don't get the hate. I thought it was a decent analysis based on numbers you can get. It remains an estimation but you can compare estimation from different point in time.

It is anecdotal, but it is not all worthless.

Oh I am one of those who don't raid, do M+ and PvP.

Exactly. One has to wonder why raid, M+ and PvP participation seems to drop off at a much steeper rate compared to previous expansions.

[StillMcfuu]

Its just a common sense video looking at accessible stats, really nothing to write home about.

The easy qual here is you can just log into the game and get tired of it within a few minutes all while being bombarded by advertisers and realize that everyone that is still playing is apart of the hamster wheel. The game has gone full in on pushing mtx and does nothing to admin that image or people taking advantage of it in game.

Yes we will all line up for the next expansion, but not for any good reason. Same reason you take back your terrible ex significant other. You have a history, you have had some of the best times in your life with her, maybe she's changed, maybe she is off the heroin and won't run your TV and silverware to the pawnshop when you go to work next time.
WoW is now on crazy ex status for the majority of the playerbase, and for the playerbase that continues to play they are likely just as toxic as she is and are willing to let her keep diving into their wallets for her next high.

[InfernalDark]

Why should we care what random youtube guy thinks

[Nnyco]

Less than optimal when the business model relies on monthly subscriptions.

Only worked for 17 years and the only competitior is basically a carbon copy. Guess its optimal afterall.

[Kalador]

It's clear as day that wow is losing a lot of sub and that the content draught is going to be very rough this expansion. The dev clearly lack good communication and they are doubling down on features that are mostly dislike by the community. Wow still has good things but Shadowland is clearly not the expansion the community wanted.

Those bellular video are fucking trash tho. Everyone knows it's not going well, you don't have to do a video about it every 2 day... Even if blizzard as realized and is trying to correct it's going to takes month for real solution to start to be implemented. Lets make sure to make 30 other video about how dead is wow in the meantime bellular...

Also those sub number video serve actually zero purpose outside of milking some drama, like how is that information relevant, blizzard know exactly how many sub they are losing. If you think the game is bad then criticized why it is bad, that might be helpful in some way (even if most those videos are trash). Sub number video are the equivalent of "HAHA i told you so"...

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Its just a common sense video looking at accessible stats, really nothing to write home about.

The easy qual here is you can just log into the game and get tired of it within a few minutes all while being bombarded by advertisers and realize that everyone that is still playing is apart of the hamster wheel. The game has gone full in on pushing mtx and does nothing to admin that image or people taking advantage of it in game.

Yes we will all line up for the next expansion, but not for any good reason. Same reason you take back your terrible ex significant other. You have a history, you have had some of the best times in your life with her, maybe she's changed, maybe she is off the heroin and won't run your TV and silverware to the pawnshop when you go to work next time.
WoW is now on crazy ex status for the majority of the playerbase, and for the playerbase that continues to play they are likely just as toxic as she is and are willing to let her keep diving into their wallets for her next high.

Or maybe you know some player just enjoy raiding and doing m+ with firends...

[Chriisto]

Everyone loves Bellular on these forums so your post should be well received

[willtron]

I'm by no means a Bellular fan but he is correct on quite alot of things.

1) Bellular has no insight into sub numbers, these graphs are one and all "estimations" he pulled out of his ass.

Agreed.

2) Bellular has always made lots of money by joining whichever drama train came through the village. It's his entire shtick. Just look at his video titles and you will realize that he makes money off of repeating the opinions of unhappy people back to them so they feel validated. WoW always had a large unhappy playerbase and Bellular is playing their mouthpiece.

That's just playing the youtube algorithm. Everyone does that, look at LTT videos or GN videos.

3) He is an arrogant jackass, that pretends to know about game development because he wants to make a game (which he failed to do for now), so he bashes people that have created multi-billion dollar companies and AAA titles, while in truth he has no clue.

Don't have to be a chef to know shit food. A lot of what he bashes actiblizz for makes sense as a consumer.

4) He was clearly paid off by other companies to do this bashing. Amazon has given millions to streamers to promote their stuff, do you really think they wouldn't give money to someone that has already shown more then willing to bash WoW for some extra bashing?

Funny you criticise him for pulling things out his ass, I'm very interested in your source for that.

In short: Bellular is about the least trustworthy source you can possibly have. If you need someone to make your opinion for you, that is fine, but stop pretending like this is the gospel of truth.

Or, like anything in life, for your own opinion based on several view points and vectors.

[Osmeric]

Shadowlands sold better than previous expansions I believe.

They fudged the definitions of the numbers to make the "first day" (sic) sales seem larger than they actually were.

[ImpalerEU]

Bellular?. It's disturbing that people actually take that clickbaiting farce seriously.

[Ivarr]

They fudged the definitions of the numbers to make the "first day" (sic) sales seem larger than they actually were.

This is why don't preorder anything. It's not just about risking disappointment, it's a perverse charting trick.

[Tyrannica]

Thought the big money comes from gold boosters ever noticed the huge spam everywhere in mythic+ arenas and raids? And cash shop whales, are all the streamers that talk about it, wrong?

WoW has serious problems just because of the gold boosters and traders that is optimized to the current endgame systems. First step to make wow anything close to past greatness is to stop just that. That would require a new endgame design.

Does not really look like current dev team is willing to take that risk and dedicate to that.

[Drusin]

I'm amused people are so desperate to know what the sub count is rofl

That shit is hilarious guys

[Kumorii]

This is why don't preorder anything. It's not just about risking disappointment, it's a perverse charting trick.

curious...how is it a perverse charting trick?
Pre-orders and first day buyers are the same people who wants to play on the 1st day of the release. There's no reason to differentiate the two...
There is no one that would be interested in knowing how many were pre-orders and how many were day1 buyers.

if you separate the two, what do you think it would achieve? In the end it shows how good the marketing and hype were doing since both of those audiences are going in "blind".