NCAAF 2021-2022 Season

[plz delete account]

No, we definitely need cincy to lose because no one will take undefeated cincy over one loss notre dame, and they are both potentially fighting for the last spot. If cincy finishes undefeated notre dame is cooked.

The simulator on 538 has ND’s chance go up by like 15% if cincy loses.

Cincy losing makes your loss to them look WORSE.

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RANK UTAH YOU COWARDS

[cubby]

No, we definitely need cincy to lose because no one will take undefeated cincy over one loss notre dame, and they are both potentially fighting for the last spot. If cincy finishes undefeated notre dame is cooked.

The simulator on 538 has ND’s chance go up by like 15% if cincy loses.

Bama is going to lose to Georgia in the SEC Conf champ, and a 2-loss Alabama isn't going to make the CFP. So that's at least two teams out of the CFP right now. Two spots to fight over at the end of the Conf Champ games, at least.

[Coniferous]

Cincy losing makes your loss to them look WORSE.

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RANK UTAH YOU COWARDS

I get it that cincy winning out makes us look better, except that we’re likely going to be compared head to head with cincy, and I have a hard time imagining there’s room for undefeated cincy and one loss notre dame in the final 4.

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Bama is going to lose to Georgia in the SEC Conf champ, and a 2-loss Alabama isn't going to make the CFP. So that's at least two teams out of the CFP right now. Two spots to fight over at the end of the Conf Champ games, at least.

And Oklahoma, Oregon, OSU all solidly ahead of nd and cincy if they win out.

[cubby]

Why isn't there a conversation about Kayvon Thibodeaux as a Heisman candidate?

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And Oklahoma, Oregon, OSU all solidly ahead of nd and cincy if they win out.

If those teams win out, and assuming Georgia beats Alabama in the conf champ game, those will be the four teams playing in the CFP. With a possible rematch of Oregon vs OSU (#2 vs #3).

[Coniferous]

Why isn't there a conversation about Kayvon Thibodeaux as a Heisman candidate?

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If those teams win out, and assuming Georgia beats Alabama in the conf champ game, those will be the four teams playing in the CFP. With a possible rematch of Oregon vs OSU (#2 vs #3).

Agreed. ACC is out of the picture, and if there are 4 major conference champions with strong resumes, they will get in. If one stumbles, it opens the door for lower tier teams like Cincy and Notre Dame. And yes, I understand that ND is a long shot and if they made it would probably be the worst team ever selected to the CFP, but let me be a fan! lol.

[cubby]

Agreed. ACC is out of the picture, and if there are 4 major conference champions with strong resumes, they will get in. If one stumbles, it opens the door for lower tier teams like Cincy and Notre Dame. And yes, I understand that ND is a long shot and if they made it would probably be the worst team ever selected to the CFP, but let me be a fan! lol.

What curious is that OK is undefeated as well, and they are WAY outside looking in. But if they win out, including Conf champ, I'm hoping that will change the CFP calculus and bring in the aforementioned top four. It would be REALLY nice if OSU got the #4 ranking, so Oregon can play OK. And kick their fucking asses. But we're a long way away from that.

[plz delete account]

I get it that cincy winning out makes us look better, except that we’re likely going to be compared head to head with cincy, and I have a hard time imagining there’s room for undefeated cincy and one loss notre dame in the final 4.

So you DO admit head2head matters.

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Why isn't there a conversation about Devin Lloyd as a Heisman candidate?

FIFY friendo!

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RANK UTAH COWARDS

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anyone else watching MWC After Dark?

[muto]

1. Georgia

Big Ass Gap

2., 3., 4., Any Order

Alabama
Ohio State
Oregon

[cubby]

1. Georgia

Big Ass Gap

2., 3., 4., Any Order

Alabama
Ohio State
Oregon

Nope - Alabama is out. A 2 loss team isn't making in the CFP assuming Georgia, OK, OSU, and Oregon win out. If they do (all four of those teams), I predict:

1. Georgia
2. Oregon
3. Oklahoma
4. Ohio State

Cincy will not make the cut. OK and OSU last season wins will propel them past Cincy. 'Bama is out as a two-loss team. Oregon and Georgia play the natty.

[muto]

Nope - Alabama is out. A 2 loss team isn't making in the CFP assuming Georgia, OK, OSU, and Oregon win out. If they do (all four of those teams), I predict:

1. Georgia
2. Oregon
3. Oklahoma
4. Ohio State

Cincy will not make the cut. OK and OSU last season wins will propel them past Cincy. 'Bama is out as a two-loss team. Oregon and Georgia play the natty.

No that's just after this week. I think at the end it will be, assuming these teams win out.

1. Georgia
2. Oregon (Head to head win over Ohio State)
3. Ohio State
4. Oklahoma

If all those teams up there lose games, I think a 2 loss Alabama could slip back in, especially since they'll be the best 2 loss team.

[plz delete account]

@cubby; don't check FPI prediction for the Utah Oregon game. Was 55/45 before week 10, but now? You'll have a heart attack.

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Also for those curious for how young this Utah team is...


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Oh and Utah leads the nation in yards per carry

[Coniferous]

So you DO admit head2head matters.

Come on man, this crap again? Yes, when two teams play each other, I think head to head matters for rating each other. Again, incredibly obvious point is obvious. When you're trying to rate entire conferences based on three games between mediocre teams, then no, it doesn't. I don't understand your desire to catch me in a "gotcha" all the time. Please stop it, this is asinine.

[plz delete account]

Come on man, this crap again? Yes, when two teams play each other, I think head to head matters for rating each other. Again, incredibly obvious point is obvious. When you're trying to rate entire conferences based on three games between mediocre teams, then no, it doesn't. I don't understand your desire to catch me in a "gotcha" all the time. Please stop it, this is asinine.

Okay, then why do you think head to head doesn't matter for rating conferences against each other?

[Coniferous]

Okay, then why do you think head to head doesn't matter for rating conferences against each other?

I already addressed this in the post you responded to.

[plz delete account]

I already addressed this in the post you responded to.

No. You don't mention it at all.

[Coniferous]

No. You don't mention it at all.

Because there have only been three games between mediocre teams. And didn't you already agree that it doesn't make sense to rate conferences based on only three games like 10 posts ago, or is my memory mistaken? What is going on? What are you trying to do? This whole exchange is just bizarre.

Again, I don't feel like my argument is that extreme, it seems fairly logical. A head to head between two teams is important when rating them against each other (duh), and rating entire conferences based on only three games is pointless because the sample size is small. Do you disagree with any of that, or are you just fucking with me? Because it really seems like you're just fucking with me, and I can't figure out why.

[cubby]

Because there have only been three games between mediocre teams. And didn't you already agree that it doesn't make sense to rate conferences based on only three games like 10 posts ago, or is my memory mistaken? What is going on? What are you trying to do? This whole exchange is just bizarre.

Again, I don't feel like my argument is that extreme, it seems fairly logical. A head to head between two teams is important when rating them against each other (duh), and rating entire conferences based on only three games is pointless because the sample size is small. Do you disagree with any of that, or are you just fucking with me? Because it really seems like you're just fucking with me, and I can't figure out why.

Sometimes - but sometimes not, or the head-to-head is telling in another way. The reason I'm pushing you on this is because your position seems mildly disingenuous. You're saying head-to-head only counts when you want it to, i.e. when it helps your position. I'm not necessarily disagreeing - head-to-head makes sense when ranking teams. Oregon above OSU is a perfect example.

You argue above that head-to-head vs "mediocre" teams doesn't give us a good enough data set. Well, the same reasoning could be applied to the CFP - not a large enough data set.

As a side question - how many head-to-head conf vs [other] conf would we have to see in a regular season to count as a big enough data set?

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@cubby; don't check FPI prediction for the Utah Oregon game. Was 55/45 before week 10, but now? You'll have a heart attack.

I don't care about FPI predictions whatsoever. Especially when they have the Ducks winning. We have an interesting visit from WSU next week and then the real fun begins. Also, unless I'm missing something, even if Oregon beats Utah and then wins out, we'll still see you in the Pac-12 Conf Champ game, right?

[Coniferous]

Sometimes - but sometimes not, or the head-to-head is telling in another way. The reason I'm pushing you on this is because your position seems mildly disingenuous. You're saying head-to-head only counts when you want it to, i.e. when it helps your position. I'm not necessarily disagreeing - head-to-head makes sense when ranking teams. Oregon above OSU is a perfect example.

You argue above that head-to-head vs "mediocre" teams doesn't give us a good enough data set. Well, the same reasoning could be applied to the CFP - not a large enough data set.

It is all pretty subjective. Between the right three teams, sure, you might get a signal out of it. But these three games? Nah. Again, one was against Vanderbilt, who is getting smoked by everyone in the SEC anyway, another was against a Texas A&M team who's starting QB was hurt, and the third was against 4-5 LSU in the very first game of the season when teams are still figuring themselves out. Then of course, the PAC-12 has been terrible against other conferences this year, so cherry picking the one where they happen to be ok is really suspect.

But I would argue that by and large, yes, there aren't enough games between conferences most years to get a very accurate ranking. For example, in 2017, the SEC went 10-12 against the other 4 big conferences, including 0-2 against the PAC 12, yet ended up with two teams in the championship game, another in the top 10, and 2 more in the top 20, while the PAC 12 had 3 teams between 12 and 20.

[plz delete account]

I don't care about FPI predictions whatsoever. Especially when they have the Ducks winning. We have an interesting visit from WSU next week and then the real fun begins. Also, unless I'm missing something, even if Oregon beats Utah and then wins out, we'll still see you in the Pac-12 Conf Champ game, right?

FPI predicts Utah will win against Oregon at home, and again in Vegas.

[cubby]

It is all pretty subjective. Between the right three teams, sure, you might get a signal out of it. But these three games? Nah. Again, one was against Vanderbilt, who is getting smoked by everyone in the SEC anyway, another was against a Texas A&M team who's starting QB was hurt, and the third was against 4-5 LSU in the very first game of the season when teams are still figuring themselves out. Then of course, the PAC-12 has been terrible against other conferences this year, so cherry picking the one where they happen to be ok is really suspect.

But I would argue that by and large, yes, there aren't enough games between conferences most years to get a very accurate ranking. For example, in 2017, the SEC went 10-12 against the other 4 big conferences, including 0-2 against the PAC 12, yet ended up with two teams in the championship game, another in the top 10, and 2 more in the top 20, while the PAC 12 had 3 teams between 12 and 20.

I would have to agree with the overall sentiment that there are not only not/never enough games, but even some of those don't make the cut of getting a signal out of it.

It's interesting the numbers coming out of your 2017 reference. But yeah, overall, just not enough data points. And, to devil's advocate myself, the SEC does keep winning championships and playoff games.

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FPI predicts Utah will win against Oregon at home, and again in Vegas.

Super. And literally irrelevant, because of the very math behind the basis of statistics. And frankly, on a Karmic level, I'd be more worried if Oregon were favored in the FPI.