You're right...I was thinking of Scheer.
Yeah the last time there was a big split was with the Reform party...but when they merged up again they had a 15 year run. It's probably destined to happen with the PPC at some point as well.As for the PPC using a potential Conservative schism, that's certainly a concern, but splitting Conservative forces would make them all impotent. Nobody in the party who was alive back then wants the bad old days of the Liberals winning elections almost by default because the Progressive-Conservatives (yes that was the actual party name, for the non-Canucks among us) and more socially-bent Conservatives were splitting the right-leaning vote in half. But on the other hand it seems that without someone like Harper as the leader that can help the party present a united, believable front, the Conservatives just can't manage to get their shit together and pierce outside of the Prairies. If O'Toole's attempt to play Mr. nice guy fails just as much as Scheer's attempt to say fuck it and cajole the party's base, I've no idea what messiah they could possibly turn towards next. Maybe keep O'Toole around and hope for Trudeau fatigue in 4 years?