Poll: Which Party Wins?

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  1. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by Jastall View Post
    O'Toole didn't go against Bernier, he was sorta crowned leader without that much of a race. You're thinking of Scheer, who did go against him and won with the slimmest of margins. Bernier left the Conservatives after that one.
    You're right...I was thinking of Scheer.

    As for the PPC using a potential Conservative schism, that's certainly a concern, but splitting Conservative forces would make them all impotent. Nobody in the party who was alive back then wants the bad old days of the Liberals winning elections almost by default because the Progressive-Conservatives (yes that was the actual party name, for the non-Canucks among us) and more socially-bent Conservatives were splitting the right-leaning vote in half. But on the other hand it seems that without someone like Harper as the leader that can help the party present a united, believable front, the Conservatives just can't manage to get their shit together and pierce outside of the Prairies. If O'Toole's attempt to play Mr. nice guy fails just as much as Scheer's attempt to say fuck it and cajole the party's base, I've no idea what messiah they could possibly turn towards next. Maybe keep O'Toole around and hope for Trudeau fatigue in 4 years?
    Yeah the last time there was a big split was with the Reform party...but when they merged up again they had a 15 year run. It's probably destined to happen with the PPC at some point as well.

  2. #42
    Scarab Lord Frontenac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    Honestly, the NDP are still rebuilding from the loss of Jack Layton. For better or for worse, while Layton ran the party, it was his party; there was very much a cult of personality in effect. It led to the strongest showings for the NDP in recent years. And I'm not crapping on Layton here; I was a supporter myself, but his was the only name that came up when people talked about the NDP, really.

    With his tragic loss, the NDP was cut adrift a bit, and they've had to try and find their feet. I like Singh, even if he's pissed me off a bit this election cycle by focusing all his campaigning on attacking Trudeau, rather than firing many shots at O'toole and the Conservatives, or even really arguing the NDP's own quantified platform. He's not Layton, though. He could get there, though, and we'll have to see how everything plays out with this election cycle. If the NDP lose seats, he may be done, but if they have even modest gains, he's probably set to lead the party for a long time.
    Singh had to attack Trudeau. Most of his potential voters support the Liberals, and Trudeau won in 2015 by "outlefting" the NDP. And let's be frank, Trudeau did not deliver on his progressive agenda, apart from helping his friends making lots of money with weed. He's more talk than walk, so Singh had to hammer on that. Besides, although a lot of NDP policies were adopted by Trudeau, they became Liberal policies, and NDP almost appears as the Libs' baby brother. So the NDP has to distance itself from the LPC.

    Who ever is its leader, the NDP will never form the government if it cannot grow some roots in Québec. The Orange Wave in 2011 was just that. It flooded the province and now it's gone. Nothing remains of it except Alexandre Boulerice (who could be a contender if Singh leaves). It will be hard though, since the NDP is perceived here as a centralisator party, while most Quebeckers are for provincial autonomy and despise being told by Ottawa what they should do in their jurisdictions. And like the Tories before Brian Mulroney, it's also perceived as "un parti d'Anglais". But the NDP does not fare really better in the English communities of Québec, especially in the West Island of Montréal, where the Libs could get a pig elected as long as it is painted red...

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Jastall View Post
    To think he also got elected as Conservative head, too. He probably would have been crushed, unlike Scheer who was merely defeated. Speaking of which, everyone, odds on O'Toole and Singh remaining in post if their party underperforms?
    I forgot about "Operation Jos Louis"... And wasn't the Vachon factory in his riding of Beauce?

    Now about Singh and O'Toole, I believe that Singh will be safe. It's not like the NDP has any hope of winning the elections, afterall. As long as they do not lose much seats, he should be fine.

    O'Toole is another matter. If it's a Liberal minority government, he should be safe, especially if he manages to make some gains. The Tories would not want to risk yet another leadership election when we could be called back at the urns very quick. But of course, it's if the social conservatives in his base are more practical than idealists. Which remains to be seen...

    I'm not even sure if Trudeau will remain if he wins a minority government. If he somehow loses, which will be surprising, he's a goner.

    Yves-François Blanchet will quit only if he loses his own seat or if the Bloc loses too many seats. Which would be surprising, considering the polls.

    Now Annamie Paul will croak, that's certain. If not willingly, then her party will kick her out, slam the door behind her and change the lock.
    "Je vous répondrai par la bouche de mes canons!"

  3. #43
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frontenac View Post
    Singh had to attack Trudeau. Most of his potential voters support the Liberals, and Trudeau won in 2015 by "outlefting" the NDP.
    I mean, I know that. I'd expect 2/3 of Singh's rhetoric to be against the Liberals. They're the current government, and who he's seeking to dethrone. I get that.

    It's just closer to 95-98%, without any commentary on the Conservatives at all, really. And he's done a pretty poor job of having properly quantified policy frameworks to present against the Liberals, who have had exactly that.

    I'm probably voting Liberal, but it's more because my riding is Conservative and the Liberal MIGHT flip the district right now, and the actual rep is a better candidate. I vote about 40% on the local candidate, 40% strategically, and 20% ideologically; the NDP get the latter but it's not enough by itself to draw a vote from me. Numbers made up, obviously. Part of why I'm so critical of Singh is because I'd rather vote NDP.

    And let's be frank, Trudeau did not deliver on his progressive agenda, apart from helping his friends making lots of money with weed. He's more talk than walk, so Singh had to hammer on that. Besides, although a lot of NDP policies were adopted by Trudeau, they became Liberal policies, and NDP almost appears as the Libs' baby brother. So the NDP has to distance itself from the LPC.
    The Liberals have always been centrist. And they have made some steps I approve of, stepping up tax rates on the 1% (not enough), working to get a global corporate min tax rate, etc.

    If the election were just Trudeau and Singh, I'd vote Singh. That's not how our elections work, though.

    Now Annamie Paul will croak, that's certain. If not willingly, then her party will kick her out, slam the door behind her and change the lock.
    She irritates me. I actually work in climate change adaptation and outreach; I've got published material out there with my name on it, working with professional associations and local/county governments, and such. She says a lot of the vaguest "we need to achieve X" without any eye as to how to achieve it, or what the costs would be. Like, trying to get Canada off fossil fuels by 2030? I get that we should have done that, starting in the '90s, but it's way too late to expect 100% fossil fuel reduction in 9 years. That would require replacing all personal vehicles with EVs, and Canada has some of the most hostile climate and terrain issues for EVs in the world, not to mention replacing gas stations with charging stations and likely needing charging highways for long-distance travel to boot (a lot more functional than having to stop to fast-charge for an hour or more at a time). Haven't even talked about everyone relying on fossil fuels for home heating, which, y'know, Canada. We'll freeze to death if heating isn't there. Like, these are all things we can adapt; the technology is there. In 9 years? With how large a budget? That's where the Greens fall apart, every time.

    The Greens have always been useless. Always.


  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Frontenac View Post

    I forgot about "Operation Jos Louis"... And wasn't the Vachon factory in his riding of Beauce?

    Now about Singh and O'Toole, I believe that Singh will be safe. It's not like the NDP has any hope of winning the elections, afterall. As long as they do not lose much seats, he should be fine.

    O'Toole is another matter. If it's a Liberal minority government, he should be safe, especially if he manages to make some gains. The Tories would not want to risk yet another leadership election when we could be called back at the urns very quick. But of course, it's if the social conservatives in his base are more practical than idealists. Which remains to be seen...

    I'm not even sure if Trudeau will remain if he wins a minority government. If he somehow loses, which will be surprising, he's a goner.

    Yves-François Blanchet will quit only if he loses his own seat or if the Bloc loses too many seats. Which would be surprising, considering the polls.

    Now Annamie Paul will croak, that's certain. If not willingly, then her party will kick her out, slam the door behind her and change the lock.
    Yeah, if memory serves that was the point of his Joe Louis distribution, bringing a bit of Beauce to the boys or something. Media had a field day this I remember.

    As for Trudeau leaving if he wins, I greatly doubt that. The Liberal base loves him and Liberals in general really like their leadership races to be mere crownings if at all possible. If there's no clear replacement for Trudeau he's 100% staying unless the election is truly a catastrophe, by which I mean a Conservative majority or close to it which is incredibly unlikely.

    Blanchet's staying of course. The Bloc has found its only halfway good leader since Duceppe and they'll hold on to him at all costs considering the clowns that preceded him.
    It is all that is left unsaid upon which tragedies are built -Kreia

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  5. #45
    Dear American Conservatives,

    I just finished voting. It took me 5 minutes. I didn’t even have time to play video games on my phone. Out of the very long list of allowed identification Canadians are allowed to use I showed the poll worker one of them.

    I was handed a twice folded slip of paper and a pencil. I walked to the privacy booth and I used the pencil to mark an “X” in the circle next to the name of my preferred candidate. I re-folded the paper and handed it back the poll worker. The poll worker checked a tab on the folded paper to insure the uniqueness of my ballot. The tab was then torn off to insure the secrecy of my ballot. The ballot was then inserted into the ballot box.

    And that is how you run a fucking democracy.



    PS I will admit to being unpatriotic and listened to Finnish Heavy Metal in the polling station.

  6. #46
    I am Murloc!
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    It took me less than a minute to vote in rural Nova Scotia, and 15 seconds was just washing my hands.

    The biggest thing that annoyed me about Trudeau is the promise to change elections, which he ignored completely when he got his first majority. Politicians are far too keen on majority governments so when they get one they always think they can maintain one forever, and it's likely he himself and those around him told him that he shouldn't advance on that position at all. Which is incredibly short sighted based on Canadian politics, where majority governments will likely become far more rare as we advance in the future.

    With a change in how elections work the chances you ever see a majority government would be incredibly slim and under those proposed systems it would be pretty much impossible for conservatives in Canada to ever form a majority government ever.

    I'd actually contemplate voting NDP from time to time if our election system was changed, but the short sightedness of the Liberal party will eventually result in a Conservative majority or two in the future when the PPC and the Conservatives eventually merge like the reform party did well over a decade ago. The prospect of people working together regardless of party is far too daunting I guess.

  7. #47
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ivanstone View Post
    Dear American Conservatives,

    I just finished voting. It took me 5 minutes. I didn’t even have time to play video games on my phone. Out of the very long list of allowed identification Canadians are allowed to use I showed the poll worker one of them.
    I had a line. Like 5 people. I can't remember the last time I actually had to wait for any appreciable amount of time. It was still just a couple minutes before I was scratching my mark on my ballot.

    I was handed a twice folded slip of paper and a pencil. I walked to the privacy booth and I used the pencil to mark an “X” in the circle next to the name of my preferred candidate. I re-folded the paper and handed it back the poll worker. The poll worker checked a tab on the folded paper to insure the uniqueness of my ballot. The tab was then torn off to insure the secrecy of my ballot. The ballot was then inserted into the ballot box.

    And that is how you run a fucking democracy.
    Yeeep. Dead simple. Same way it's been every time I've voted for 20 years.

    The only change with the pandemic is that masks were required at the clubhouse that was hosting the polling station (if you're an anti-masker, you had early voting options and vote-by-mail options, get stuffed), and some social distancing required in the lineups (but again, it was like 2 minutes and there were like 5 people ahead of us), and some hand sanitizer stations before/after the polling station proper if you wanted to use 'em, which wasn't required.

    Door to door, I think I was out of the house for 15 minutes?

    PS I will admit to being unpatriotic and listened to Finnish Heavy Metal in the polling station.
    You know that, as a Canadian, you're expected to only listen to Rush or the Hip. C'mon.


  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    I had a line.

    You know that, as a Canadian, you're expected to only listen to Rush or the Hip. C'mon.
    I'm from Québec and so am legally entitled to listen to Jean Leloup and Les Colocs while voting, come at me.

    Speaking of which, the Conservatives have a pretty good start in the Atlantic. Remains to see if it translates to Ontario as well, but damn this will be one close election. Trudeau has already lost his gamble even if he wins the election.

    I was also expecting the Greens to be harmed by their awful leadership crisis and campaign, but holy cow they're effectively being wiped out completely so far.
    It is all that is left unsaid upon which tragedies are built -Kreia

    The internet: where to every action is opposed an unequal overreaction.

  9. #49
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jastall View Post
    Speaking of which, the Conservatives have a pretty good start in the Atlantic. Remains to see if it translates to Ontario as well, but damn this will be one close election. Trudeau has already lost his gamble even if he wins the election.
    CBC has the results pretty even as of me typing this. NDP up three overall, taking one from Conservatives and 2 from the Bloc in Atlantic.

    I don't think anyone expected Atlantic to go Liberal; they've always been pretty conservative (having grown up mostly in Halifax, myself).

    Edit: I said that, and now the Liberals are up 5 and the Conservatives down 5.

    Canadian elections, man.
    Last edited by Endus; 2021-09-21 at 01:54 AM.


  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    CBC has the results pretty even as of me typing this. NDP up three overall, taking one from Conservatives and 2 from the Bloc in Atlantic.

    I don't think anyone expected Atlantic to go Liberal; they've always been pretty conservative (having grown up mostly in Halifax, myself).

    Edit: I said that, and now the Liberals are up 5 and the Conservatives down 5.

    Canadian elections, man.
    Them 1/??? reporting will get you every time. Even my riding with 6 in has it flipped red. I doubt it'll stay red and will revert back to blue but one can dream.

  11. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    CBC has the results pretty even as of me typing this. NDP up three overall, taking one from Conservatives and 2 from the Bloc in Atlantic.

    I don't think anyone expected Atlantic to go Liberal; they've always been pretty conservative (having grown up mostly in Halifax, myself).

    Edit: I said that, and now the Liberals are up 5 and the Conservatives down 5.

    Canadian elections, man.
    Yeah it's indeed volatile, and it seems Ontario is getting redder if anything, so far. Interesting.
    It is all that is left unsaid upon which tragedies are built -Kreia

    The internet: where to every action is opposed an unequal overreaction.

  12. #52
    I Don't Work Here Endus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by madethisfor1post View Post
    Them 1/??? reporting will get you every time. Even my riding with 6 in has it flipped red. I doubt it'll stay red and will revert back to blue but one can dream.
    Yeah, I was less trying to say the results will be anything specific and more that they're gonna dance around wildly as results come in.


  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by Endus View Post
    Yeah, I was less trying to say the results will be anything specific and more that they're gonna dance around wildly as results come in.
    I know. It's fun watching the swings.

  14. #54
    Radio-Canada calls for a Liberal government, jury still out on whenever they attain a majority but I strongly doubt it still.
    It is all that is left unsaid upon which tragedies are built -Kreia

    The internet: where to every action is opposed an unequal overreaction.

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by Ivanstone View Post
    Dear American Conservatives,

    I just finished voting. It took me 5 minutes. I didn’t even have time to play video games on my phone. Out of the very long list of allowed identification Canadians are allowed to use I showed the poll worker one of them.

    I was handed a twice folded slip of paper and a pencil. I walked to the privacy booth and I used the pencil to mark an “X” in the circle next to the name of my preferred candidate. I re-folded the paper and handed it back the poll worker. The poll worker checked a tab on the folded paper to insure the uniqueness of my ballot. The tab was then torn off to insure the secrecy of my ballot. The ballot was then inserted into the ballot box.

    And that is how you run a fucking democracy.
    Curious is this not normal in other parts of America? Cause in my small town in California it is done exactly like you described.

  16. #56
    It depends on where in a red state that you vote. For example, if you go to a red state with lots of voter suppression, it's still very easy and fast to vote in rural areas. This is because republicans target high pop areas which lean dem. In those places you may have much longer waits and a harder time voting in the right place. Republicans make it purposely confusing and put up as many roadblocks as possible.

  17. #57
    The Lightbringer
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    Took me about 14 mins, had a rather large line ahead of me and parking was atrocious. Picked the worst spot to have it.

  18. #58
    So its looking like status quo with barely any change in seat numbers?

    Might as well have stuck out the rest of the term and not have the taxpayers foot the bill for an unnecessary election at that rate.

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    So its looking like status quo with barely any change in seat numbers?

    Might as well have stuck out the rest of the term and not have the taxpayers foot the bill for an unnecessary election at that rate.
    Under the Westminster system, it's a new term, not the "rest of the term".

  20. #60
    Scarab Lord Frontenac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flarelaine View Post
    Under the Westminster system, it's a new term, not the "rest of the term".
    It would have been the same term if Trudeau didn't call an election in the first place. And wasted 612 M$ just to get a majority.

    When you think about it, few leaders were really happy last night.

    Trudeau couldn't get the majority he wanted.
    O'Toole couldn't dislodge Trudeau and become Prime Minister.
    Singh didn't make much gains and remains third opposition.
    Blanchet couldn't get the 40 seats he wanted.
    Paul was destroyed in her riding and the Greens are as irrelevant as ever.

    The only one who is happy, even triumphant, is Maxime Bernier, "the true opposition" as he said with his wopping 5 %. Unfortunately for him, COVID-19 wont last forever...
    "Je vous répondrai par la bouche de mes canons!"

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