So the challenges from wow's main competitors seems to be fading

[cardzx]

So with Blizzard doing everything to blow its own head off lately there was a lot of focus on main challengers
New World and FF14.

New World

New World had an impressive launch but it had a very public collapse afterward and is currently about 1/4 of
wow's size. This was mainly due to failures of game integrity with exploits going mainstream, and duping
affecting the economy permanently. The game has lost 100,000 players every week since launch. While
there is usually substantial drop-off after launch of every MMO these figures are unprecedented.

Currently the main discussion is whether the game will survive at all. In addition to the problems with
game integrity New World has no endgame as such and does not look to have one any time soon.

There is a possibility New World may recover at some future date-the developers do seem to be engaging
heavily with the player base unlike wow, but that is unlikely to happen soon.

Final Fantasy 14

FF14 is a bit different-as a pre-existing game it attracted a lot of support in the Summer, when Asmongold
began featuring it heavily. The narrative around that game is that it displaced wow as top mmo. Which
probably did happen for a while. And converts to that game are still pushing that narrative.

However if you look at search activity around FF14 in the last few months, a highly accurate predictor of
purchases, its fallen off a cliff in the last few months despite the summer spike, barely above its 5 year
historical trend. The huge jump in July just petered out.
You can observe this at google trends-type in "FF14" set the data to worldwide with a 5 year timeframe
and it becomes apparent interest in the game is not sustained.

It is harder to work out why this happened than with New World, but its probably a combination of things.
My guess is:

1. It is way harder than it should be to actually buy the game. Josh Strife Hayes did a good video on this.
2. It has no viable pvp. That's 40% of the wow player base.
3. The anime aesthetic based around anorexic teenagers is much less appealing to an adult audience (wow
players are over 30, many in their 40's).
4. As with most MMO's you just have to invest too much time into the game before it becomes interesting.

While FF14 is currently performing slightly better than WoW I think its long-term prospects are actually worse
than New World's, since its essentially a complete product with little prospect for future growth. If all it can do
with wow hit by a perfect storm and gains multi-millions of dollars worth of free publicity, is essentially just
match wow at its worst, then it is difficult to see it overtaking the game in the longer term.

The Future

Does this mean wow is out of the woods? No. I think wow is highly vulnerable to a start-up that knows what
it is doing. People are very receptive to alternatives. There is literally no goodwill towards the company at all./
However it doesn't look like either New World or FF14 are going to be wow killers.

[Lochton]

New World was never a challenge in the first place. And FFXIV has been a topic of their own in my book, and not seen it as much of a challenge but they do have a lot of good tools but also a lot of bad segments.

The main problem is, all three companies have before and currently, pissed on people's rights for a good workplace.

WoW is still vulnerable due to the current drama, and people know that as soon as there is a small hint of something, they can make the company flinch and apologize. There is going to be a long time before Blizzard gains back the right control. First, Kotick needs to go before the money bag gets dried up.

[Grimbold21]

WoW has no need of competition to dig its own grave. They've been doing that successfully for a few years now.

[Tyron]

I have never taken a stance in these "who is going to be the WoW killer", but I have also never been so disenchanted with WoW. IMO, the main threat to Blizzard is Riot and the LoL MMO they are working on. LoL has a huge lore which they are expanding like crazy and they are doing a phenomenal job. The game is probably 2 or 3 years away, but I can't wait to see what they are cooking.

[Lochton]

WoW has no need of competition to dig its own grave. They've been doing that successfully for a few years now.

Sad but true. The worst part is, most of the grave was already dug by the people who helped make the world big.

[mojusk]

Ive always said that the only company who could truly kill wow, would be blizzard themselves. Which they are doing on all fronts at an alarming rate atm.

[cardzx]

WoW has no need of competition to dig its own grave. They've been doing that successfully for a few years now.

I beg to differ on that-its still going and it is difficult to imagine what more Kotick could do to mess the company up.

Even after all the BS it is currently STILL probably the biggest MMO and definitely the most profitable. That's astonishing given we scarcely could have imagined the current horrible state of affairs.

- - - Updated - - -

I have never taken a stance in these "who is going to be the WoW killer", but I have also never been so disenchanted with WoW. IMO, the main threat to Blizzard is Riot and the LoL MMO they are working on.

Yeah that does sound interesting. LOL have more credibility in this space as they have completely dominated one genre, unlike Amazon and Square Enix.

[epigramx]

Don't even bother with this meme subject. The meme was produced entirely by click-bait youtubers who followed the example of Asmongold to shit on WoW because it brought views.

Even the "FF14 will kill wow" meme is entirely a WoW-centric meme; almost nobody outside the MMORPG community knows the game even exists; it's us talking about it.

[cardzx]

Don't even bother with this meme subject. The meme was produced entirely by click-bait youtubers who followed the example of Asmongold to shit on WoW because it brought views.

Well, there was a massive spike in popularity for FF14 in July.

What is interesting me is that Asmongold could move the dial like that but was incapable of causing people to switch permanently. So despite all the pro-ff14 sentiment, people don't actually seem to be playing it that much. It seems like his fans wanted to identify as asmongold fans but don't really listen to him.

[Civciv]

Don't even bother with this meme subject. The meme was produced entirely by click-bait youtubers who followed the example of Asmongold to shit on WoW because it brought views.

Even the "FF14 will kill wow" meme is entirely a WoW-centric meme; almost nobody outside the MMORPG community knows the game even exists; it's us talking about it.

As if Asmongold needs clickbait videos to gain views.

[cardzx]

As if Asmongold needs clickbait videos to gain views.

Of course he does, and if you watch his content he talks about this stuff pretty openly. He's unusually self-aware for a streamer.

He's not a bad person but ultimately his income depends on creating content which is commercially successful, and mostly you do that by whining about stuff.

[Civciv]

Of course he does, and if you watch his content he talks about this stuff pretty openly. He's unusually self-aware for a streamer.

He's not a bad person but ultimately his income depends on creating content which is commercially successful, and mostly you do that by whining about stuff.

He was carrying WoW on Twitch before he started playing FF14. On youtube, I agree tho.

[cardzx]

He was carrying WoW on Twitch before he started playing FF14. On youtube, I agree tho.

I don't think it is youtube specific though. Negative content is significantly more popular than positive content. That's human psychology.

I'm not sure to what extent Asmongold influences his fanbase. His actual substantive content on wow, mythic raiding, was easily his least popular. Things he did like mount-offs can be viewed by anybody and likely don't translate to wow subs or whatever.

[Kralljin]

Even after all the BS it is currently STILL probably the biggest MMO and definitely the most profitable. That's astonishing given we scarcely could have imagined the current horrible state of affairs.

>Biggest
I will put a big X for doubt behind this statement if you exclude Classic / TBC.
And if WoW needs the Classic branch to keep that title, they're in deep shit.
>most profitable
Again, doubt, Yoshi P once said he can only dream off having WoW's resources, the WoW team is around 200 heads big, those heads need to be paid on a monthly basis, which is naturally the biggest chunk of expenses to develop the game.

If FF14 numbers are even remotely close to that of WoW (Retail), i think it is more profitable simply because, according to the game director of FF14, WoW has a far larger budget.
Unless you want to argue over the cash shop in WoW bringing in more profit, but that's very debatable.

[Civciv]

I don't think it is youtube specific though. Negative content is significantly more popular than positive content. That's human psychology.

I'm not sure to what extent Asmongold influences his fanbase. His actual substantive content on wow, mythic raiding, was easily his least popular. Things he did like mount-offs can be viewed by anybody and likely don't translate to wow subs or whatever.

Actually, you are right. His tmog comps and mount-offs were amazing. I loved watching them. But mythic raiding and m+ were unbearable. He constantly insults, screams. And his fanbase is corrupted. And most of his viewers dont even play WoW.


Conclusion, you are on point.

[Echocho]

WoW doesn't need competition, it's killing itself just fine on its own.

[epigramx]

Well, there was a massive spike in popularity for FF14 in July.

What is interesting me is that Asmongold could move the dial like that but was incapable of causing people to switch permanently. So despite all the pro-ff14 sentiment, people don't actually seem to be playing it that much. It seems like his fans wanted to identify as asmongold fans but don't really listen to him.

We don't know if the spike came before the hate meme or after and it's most probably after. Asmon was not the worst offender but he was the main one because he is the most popular streamer (of the entire Twitch!).

Other smaller youtubers jumped on the train with even more ludicrous hate-speech that made no sense; e.g. Preach kept spamming the nonsense "OLD TIER SETS WERE INTERESTING" which is absolute nonsense.

- - - Updated - - -

As if Asmongold needs clickbait videos to gain views.

He is "clickbait: the youtuber". Most of his videos are a very lowest-common-denominator proclamation and his face making a grimace that toddlers find funny.

He is also obviously a very calculated business with multiple employees; those videos are produced by editors who are instructed to make them that way.

[Eazy]

2. It has no viable pvp. That's 40% of the wow player base.

Nah.

The WoW is bleeding because people have other things to do, it's still pretty good game for... 17 years?

[sensei-]

We don't know if the spike came before the hate meme or after and it's most probably after. Asmon was not the worst offender but he was the main one because he is the most popular streamer (of the entire Twitch!).

Other smaller youtubers jumped on the train with even more ludicrous hate-speech that made no sense; e.g. Preach kept spamming the nonsense "OLD TIER SETS WERE INTERESTING" which is absolute nonsense.

- - - Updated - - -



He is "clickbait: the youtuber". Most of his videos are a very lowest-common-denominator proclamation and his face making a grimace that toddlers find funny.

He is also obviously a very calculated business with multiple employees; those videos are produced by editors who are instructed to make them that way.

Dude, Asmon is not the most popular streamer by any metric. Never has been.

[cardzx]

We don't know if the spike came before the hate meme or after and it's most probably after. Asmon was not the worst offender but he was the main one because he is the most popular streamer (of the entire Twitch!).

Other smaller youtubers jumped on the train with even more ludicrous hate-speech that made no sense; e.g. Preach kept spamming the nonsense "OLD TIER SETS WERE INTERESTING" which is absolute nonsense.

Yeah I lost a lot of respect for Preach. He was all over the place: he wasn't invited to wow parties, wow devs didn't listen to feedback sexual harassment is bad etc. All of those things might have merit but it just sounded like a mess.