if China invades Taiwan, what do they lose or risk?

[Easo]

"Majority" - all it will take is one slip up. It's like ~1928 Germany elections where Nazi party had like 3% of vote... then the great crash of 1929 happened and 4 years later it was 33%+ for Nazi Party purely on economy honest to goodness democratic process btw.

Know the main reason for it? US money that kept Germany going after WW1 ran out and suddenly what Nazi party pushed in 1928 elections with economic doom and gloom of existing govt became true.

And China could absolutely arrange just that - a little economic crash for Taiwan, discontent and China aligned parties pushing economy angle hard while sweeping unification under the rug for a meanwhile.

It's plain history and totally not outside the realm of possibility.

-or-

They could just go ahead and grab a chunk of it and make their own Crimea, Donbass, Transdniestria or whatever there. Seeing how even Russia got away with all that and more. Or heck - Turkey and Cyprus situation, would literally be same thing.

China? Would get away with it even easier because they have so many balls in their grasp.

Ultimately - I think Xi's words about how Taiwan "reunification" will happen should be taken very seriously - they have more than enough ways and capabilities to make that happen and I bet in a decade or two we will see them act on it, while everyone will be "deeply concerned" about it.

Majority - I mean a true majority. Wiki has your usual numbers and links to sources - in 2020 already more than 64% thought of themselves as Taiwanese, rest as mixed or as Chinese. It is not gonna suddenly sway other way, especially considering the number keeps increasing and China keeps being openly antagonistic. More than half also is in support of an official independence, everyone knows they de facto are anyway.
There is zero way you can compare it to the shenanigans Hitler pulled of.

As for "small economic crash" you forget that first, this is a global economy, there would be blowback back at home, second, it is very arguable about just exactly how strong PRC's economy is itself, how much shaking it could take. Huge internal market, but still absolutely needs foreign resources and people buying their shit.

[Rasulis]

As for "small economic crash" you forget that first, this is a global economy, there would be blowback back at home, second, it is very arguable about just exactly how strong PRC's economy is itself, how much shaking it could take. Huge internal market, but still absolutely needs foreign resources and people buying their shit.

I think we are starting to see chinks in China’s economic engine.

In addition to Evergrande, Fantasia, Modern Land and Sinic are now in trouble. S&P and Moody's slapped "default" credit ratings on Fantasia. Fitch downgraded Sinic to “C”.

I am sure everybody heard about Wuhan Hongxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. If you haven’t, then you probably should not be talking about China’s economy. How about Tsinghua Unigroup?

All the talk about China’s technology surpassing US, all BS. At least for know. All you have to do is look at Huawei quarterly smartphone sales. Despite Huawei’s strong leading position as a product manufacturer in the wireless industry (as of 2019), the U.S. was able to deny Huawei access to the intellectual property (IP) controlled by American fabless IC companies (and other IP related to the Android operating system) – reducing Huawei’s smartphone sales by nearly 90% – that is to say, virtually wiping out that line of the company’s business – in just two years. Two years ago Huawei was set to dominate the global 5G market, now it is barely surviving.



This hold true for all other Chinese smartphone companies, tech companies, car companies, etc. You name it. US semiconductor embargo did and is still doing a lot of damage to China’s high tech industry.

The new oil in the tech world is semiconductor. The US and its allies owned all of it.

The U.S. dominates the Fabless IC segment. Nine out of 13 top Fabless IC companies are based in California. One in EU and three in Taiwan. All four non-US companies depend on IP and parts from US companies. There are no Chinese companies in this group.

The foundry segment is dominated by Taiwan. China’s position in this segment is almost non-existent.

The manufacturing equipment segment is dominated by US, Netherlands and Japan. Not a single Chinese companies.

China has modest capacity in low-value IC packaging, but dwarfed by US, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. Not strong enough to exercise any economic leverage.

[Draco-Onis]

I think we are starting to see chinks in China’s economic engine.

In addition to Evergrande, Fantasia, Modern Land and Sinic are now in trouble. S&P and Moody's slapped "default" credit ratings on Fantasia. Fitch downgraded Sinic to “C”.

I am sure everybody heard about Wuhan Hongxin Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. If you haven’t, then you probably should not be talking about China’s economy. How about Tsinghua Unigroup?

All the talk about China’s technology surpassing US, all BS. At least for know. All you have to do is look at Huawei quarterly smartphone sales. Despite Huawei’s strong leading position as a product manufacturer in the wireless industry (as of 2019), the U.S. was able to deny Huawei access to the intellectual property (IP) controlled by American fabless IC companies (and other IP related to the Android operating system) – reducing Huawei’s smartphone sales by nearly 90% – that is to say, virtually wiping out that line of the company’s business – in just two years. Two years ago Huawei was set to dominate the global 5G market, now it is barely surviving.



This hold true for all other Chinese smartphone companies, tech companies, car companies, etc. You name it. US semiconductor embargo did and is still doing a lot of damage to China’s high tech industry.

The new oil in the tech world is semiconductor. The US and its allies owned all of it.

The U.S. dominates the Fabless IC segment. Nine out of 13 top Fabless IC companies are based in California. One in EU and three in Taiwan. All four non-US companies depend on IP and parts from US companies. There are no Chinese companies in this group.

The foundry segment is dominated by Taiwan. China’s position in this segment is almost non-existent.

The manufacturing equipment segment is dominated by US, Netherlands and Japan. Not a single Chinese companies.

China has modest capacity in low-value IC packaging, but dwarfed by US, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. Not strong enough to exercise any economic leverage.

I think it's rather premature to say anything about China's economy as it is currently going a Xi enema. A lot of moves China's has been doing lately are for the sole purpose of gutting any potential rival to Xi, nothing is safe. A lot of founding families and financial interest are being either seized or Xi is bankrupting them. For example the reason Evergande and all these real estate companies are running to the ground is because he changed the rules out of nowhere and he had the option to bail them out but he hasn't. The same goes for the movie industry changes he is attacking the actors/actresses financially attached to people he wants to neuter.

There's just too much internal clean up right now to know what is truly failing under its own weight or getting cleansed of anyone disloyal to Xi. It seems he is doing a full 180 on all parts of the economy that were democratic or capitalists as well. We really won't know how good or bad this turns out until the dust settles, at the moment too much is simply speculation.

[Easo]

I think it's rather premature to say anything about China's economy as it is currently going a Xi enema. A lot of moves China's has been doing lately are for the sole purpose of gutting any potential rival to Xi, nothing is safe. A lot of founding families and financial interest are being either seized or Xi is bankrupting them. For example the reason Evergande and all these real estate companies are running to the ground is because he changed the rules out of nowhere and he had the option to bail them out but he hasn't. The same goes for the movie industry changes he is attacking the actors/actresses financially attached to people he wants to neuter.

There's just too much internal clean up right now to know what is truly failing under its own weight or getting cleansed of anyone disloyal to Xi. It seems he is doing a full 180 on all parts of the economy that were democratic or capitalists as well. We really won't know how good or bad this turns out until the dust settles, at the moment too much is simply speculation.

Something like that.

Rasulis, China is an example of too big to fail, they are not idiots, you cannot just make the 2nd biggest economy collapse. It can, however, experience long term severe issues, have shit growth, etc. Few companies failing won't stop it, just like it wouldn't stop USA or any other big enough country. Did people stop eating in 2008 or buying stuff? No, of course not. It was bad, but life did not stop for one moment.

In context of China I would argue more about wider picture. They now have hundreds of millions in a relative "middle class", almost everyone has a mobile phone, etc. They are slowly getting used to higher quality of life, they are demanding more (read, they are doing the same thing West went through). At the same time the average Chinese is quite pro-party and nationalistic.
What I wonder is what would happen if said quality of life was lowered for couple hundred million people? Would that nationalistic fervour and support still be as strong? People dislike stuff being taken away.

A war with Taiwan, if not quick and decisive, not to mention the potential loss would lead to said economic problems. Even the quick victory would, due to cut trade ties and sanctions (remember, West is the best and most capable buyer, they cannot replace us with, say, African countries).
I really wonder how strong the whole socioeconomic structure of PRC is.

[Rasulis]

Something like that.

Rasulis, China is an example of too big to fail, they are not idiots, you cannot just make the 2nd biggest economy collapse. It can, however, experience long term severe issues, have shit growth, etc. Few companies failing won't stop it, just like it wouldn't stop USA or any other big enough country. Did people stop eating in 2008 or buying stuff? No, of course not. It was bad, but life did not stop for one moment.

In context of China I would argue more about wider picture. They now have hundreds of millions in a relative "middle class", almost everyone has a mobile phone, etc. They are slowly getting used to higher quality of life, they are demanding more (read, they are doing the same thing West went through). At the same time the average Chinese is quite pro-party and nationalistic.
What I wonder is what would happen if said quality of life was lowered for couple hundred million people? Would that nationalistic fervour and support still be as strong? People dislike stuff being taken away.

A war with Taiwan, if not quick and decisive, not to mention the potential loss would lead to said economic problems. Even the quick victory would, due to cut trade ties and sanctions (remember, West is the best and most capable buyer, they cannot replace us with, say, African countries).
I really wonder how strong the whole socioeconomic structure of PRC is.

I never used the word collapse.

Construction was and is still a major driving force of Chinese economy. It is slowing down right now. The CCP is trying to boost their high tech industry to compensate for the decline. Unfortunately the US blocked their access to high end semiconductor chips which are the life blood of high tech industry.

From what we have seen so far, despite the prodigious amount of money invested, China's semiconductor industry actually has fallen further behind. China’s most modern foundry only began production for creating chips from the 14 nanometer (nm) technology node in late 2019, at Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) in Shanghai. This placed SMIC about a decade, and at least two generations, behind the leading edge foundries run by TSMC, Samsung (South Korea), and Intel (United States). Since then, SMIC has stopped making 14 nm wafers because they failed to scale the production up to commercial level. During that time, TSMC has started mass producing 5 and 3 nm wafers, and the US is building 5 and 7 nm foundries. SMIC is now mostly mass producing 96 nm chips which is about 6 generations behind. Until their R&D catch up with their ambition, it looks like they will be there for the foreseeable future.

[Easo]

I never used the word collapse.

Construction was and is still a major driving force of Chinese economy. It is slowing down right now. The CCP is trying to boost their high tech industry to compensate for the decline. Unfortunately the US blocked their access to high end semiconductor chips which are the life blood of high tech industry.

From what we have seen so far, despite the prodigious amount of money invested, China's semiconductor industry actually has fallen further behind. China’s most modern foundry only began production for creating chips from the 14 nanometer (nm) technology node in late 2019, at Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) in Shanghai. This placed SMIC about a decade, and at least two generations, behind the leading edge foundries run by TSMC, Samsung (South Korea), and Intel (United States). Since then, SMIC has stopped making 14 nm wafers because they failed to scale the production up to commercial level. During that time, TSMC has started mass producing 5 and 3 nm wafers, and the US is building 5 and 7 nm foundries. SMIC is now mostly mass producing 96 nm chips which is about 6 generations behind. Until their R&D catch up with their ambition, it looks like they will be there for the foreseeable future.

Note that you don't need the cutting edge for anything else other than personal computing/servers. TSMC, IIRC, has bunch of old nodes up to 90nm for industrial, car, etc. microcontrollers, those are in huge demand.
14nm is still good (looks at Intel and the whole 14nm+++++++++++++ thing).
P.S.
CPU transistor size in nanometers has been bullshit lately, btw, it does not mean exactly the same thing as it did 10 years ago. They have become quite good with "creative descriptions", everyone, from Intel to Samsung to TSMC to AMD.

[Draco-Onis]

I never used the word collapse.

Construction was and is still a major driving force of Chinese economy. It is slowing down right now. The CCP is trying to boost their high tech industry to compensate for the decline. Unfortunately the US blocked their access to high end semiconductor chips which are the life blood of high tech industry.

As I stated that is being on purpose, the Chinese culture demands you own a home in order to get married it is also crucial to establish your residence in the region you work. First Xi is getting rid of people he doesn't like in the industry and crashing housing prices and construction is actually good for the long term health of the Chinese economy. They want people to own more houses and for it to be affordable since no one really owns land in China anyways they just lease it from the government.

[Belize]

Didn't Russia like literally just do what OP is suggesting China might do with Taiwan? Like Georgia?

Georgia is, unfortunately for them, a relatively insignificant piece of land in the grand scheme of things, which is why most western powers were willing to turn a blind eye. It's also more akin to the Crimea situation where they didn't exactly invade the whole country, but just decided to legitimize dissident regions that wanted out of Georgia, the same way they recognized Crimea as being separate from Ukraine.

China is wholly incapable (and unwilling tbh) to have as much tact in their land grab. Look at their invasion and current occupation of Tibet for an example. There's no world where China would be satisfied with saying "Oh wow, well the northern part of Taiwan wants to be with us mainland guys, so like yeah it's their choice".

[Rasulis]

As I stated that is being on purpose, the Chinese culture demands you own a home in order to get married it is also crucial to establish your residence in the region you work. First Xi is getting rid of people he doesn't like in the industry and crashing housing prices and construction is actually good for the long term health of the Chinese economy. They want people to own more houses and for it to be affordable since no one really owns land in China anyways they just lease it from the government.

I see two more China real estate giants in trouble (Greenland Holdings and E-house). Evergrande just missed third round of interest payment. There are over 3.7 small businesses in China with ties to Evergrande alone. Add Greenland Holdings, E-house, Fantasia and Modern Land into the mix and the number goes up a lot. We'll see if this is going to be a soft landing or a hard landing.

[Draco-Onis]

I see two more China real estate giants in trouble (Greenland Holdings and E-house). Evergrande just missed third round of interest payment. There are over 3.7 small businesses in China with ties to Evergrande alone. Add Greenland Holdings, E-house, Fantasia and Modern Land into the mix and the number goes up a lot. We'll see if this is going to be a soft landing or a hard landing.

It should be a very hard landing for all of them sine Xi changed the rules and most of them don't have the capital reserves to survive. It's pretty much guaranteed now that Chinese real estate will dive crumbling assets leading to more bankruptcies like I said it is a Xi enema.

[Rasulis]

It should be a very hard landing for all of them sine Xi changed the rules and most of them don't have the capital reserves to survive. It's pretty much guaranteed now that Chinese real estate will dive crumbling assets leading to more bankruptcies like I said it is a Xi enema.

Hard landing will be bad. Private construction is the third largest employment sector in China with around 36M employees. Not counting all the engineers, architects, real estate, plan designing, building materials manufacturing and construction equipment manufacturing. In term of revenue, it is #1 by far with 2.5 trillion dollar per year. Followed by public work construction with around 1.4 trillion per year. No other sectors come even remotely close.

[Biglog]

China risks thousands of dead, humiliation if the attack fails, and disdain in International opinion since an invasion would prove without a doubt to their neighbors and the world of China's expansionist intentions. It's not just Taiwan. They want the South China Sea, they want to claim fishing resources owned by Vietnam and the Philippines among other countries, they want a strategically important part of Kashmir from India. And they don't just verbalize these desires, they make scale models of the territory they plan to seize and run drills practicing taking it. They have a full-scale model of the Taiwan Presidential Palace for example, and have done the same for the pass in Kashmir. And China has helped Pakistan and North Korea with aims of expanding through those proxies. They have been swapping base access for arms in Africa for years.

However, just like in Afghanistan in the end it's up to the Taiwanese people to defend their land. Other democratic nations may or may not help militarily, some may help in sanctions vs. China and other ways. But it's unlikely for large numbers (if any) foreign troops to be on Taiwan to help defend it. So the military of Taiwan had best be prepared at a much higher level than what recent articles have said they are. That's described them closer to the Afghan Army than ready to fight the PLA. And it doesn't matter how well a person is equipped and armed if they aren't willing to fight.

TSMC in Taiwan btw is probably the most important company in the world. So for the sake of the world, I hope that TSMC is prepared for any eventual conflict. They really need to either pre-emptively relocate to a 3rd country, or have a plan in-place that can be implemented on a moment's notice to effectively relocate it's IP assets quickly. It doesn't need to be to the US, move it to the Philippines, South America, or someplace else. But the last thing Taiwan or the world would want would be for China to claim it's valuable assets like a reward for their invasion and become even more of a global threat.

[jonnysensible]

The danger is China, an empire in decline, will act aggressively and make a massive misstep (i.e invading Taiwan) as seems to be the move of lots of other empires who faced imminent decline. It will not have the capabilities to invade until 2035 at earliest because it still has to build enough sea lift to transport the invasion force by then it will be facing wider domestic crises so its unlikely imo.

[Draco-Onis]

Hard landing will be bad. Private construction is the third largest employment sector in China with around 36M employees. Not counting all the engineers, architects, real estate, plan designing, building materials manufacturing and construction equipment manufacturing. In term of revenue, it is #1 by far with 2.5 trillion dollar per year. Followed by public work construction with around 1.4 trillion per year. No other sectors come even remotely close.

It is a short term pain for long term gain, Xi can brag about bringing affordable housing to everyone by 2022 which is the end of his term and when he will solidify power. He seems to want to be a populist it's a problem that they have been trying to balance Xi wants to go all in on affordability, there is also the side that housing is what is preventing a baby boom which China needs badly. You could look at it another way bailing out these companies would take billions which would go into the pockets of possible rivals.

- - - Updated - - -

The danger is China, an empire in decline, will act aggressively and make a massive misstep (i.e invading Taiwan) as seems to be the move of lots of other empires who faced imminent decline. It will not have the capabilities to invade until 2035 at earliest because it still has to build enough sea lift to transport the invasion force by then it will be facing wider domestic crises so its unlikely imo.

Couldn't the same be said about the US? I mean god knows what will happen to this country if Trump steals the election in 2024 which he and the GOP are making clear that's their plan.

[jonnysensible]

Couldn't the same be said about the US? I mean god knows what will happen to this country if Trump steals the election in 2024 which he and the GOP are making clear that's their plan.

The US has pretty much proven that the benefit of being the worlds only superpower is that you can lose 2 wars and nothing will change structurally for you. The US isn't sitting on the same kind of timebombs. I genuinely think Trump will die before the 2024.

Chinas population between 2030-2050 is a nightmare. 200million less workers, 200 million more senior citizens. Its spending on social security is 10% and will go to 30%. Its water problems are another nightmare. And this is all compounded by Xi making himself emperor for life.

[Kallisto]

look at Georgia and Ukraine
what did Russia lose?

there is your answer

Difference being Crimea, South Ossetia and Abkhazia really didn't enjoy being part of Ukraine/Georgia. Also, Russia is bleeding hard financially because of their actions. A China that not only has to sail and land on Taiwan, but occupy it and pacify it is not going to have anything similar in turns of how the general public on the ground will treat them.

They will be fought tooth and nail, it will be expensive (Moreso than what happened for Russia) the US navy could cut off supplies and everything become a quagmire that would make Afghanistan look like a 20 year R&R tour for the US military.

[Doctor Amadeus]

Taiwan belongs to China, Taiwan might like to say otherwise, but generally none is going to dispute it but them, and then it is up to them to decide their future not us.

[Draco-Onis]

The US has pretty much proven that the benefit of being the worlds only superpower is that you can lose 2 wars and nothing will change structurally for you. The US isn't sitting on the same kind of timebombs. I genuinely think Trump will die before the 2024.

Chinas population between 2030-2050 is a nightmare. 200million less workers, 200 million more senior citizens. Its spending on social security is 10% and will go to 30%. Its water problems are another nightmare. And this is all compounded by Xi making himself emperor for life.

If only we were that lucky evil doesn't die that easily (see Dick Cheney), that bastard will probably outlive a lot of us. Trump or not it's clear the US is heading for some sort of political reckoning unless someone can reconcile the two sides of this country.

I hate to break it to you but most of the western world is facing that same population bomb by 2030-2050. China's problem is bigger though because their social security is pretty much a sham with government official embezzling a lot of it which is why they pushing Confucianism and children supporting their parents instead of the state. The countries first in that line though are South Korea, Japan and some EU countries, the way they survive or not survive through this problem will guide most other countries.

[Corvus]

The real estate construction industry makes up about 25% of China's GDP. A hard crash would be very, very bad. And the middle class has sunk two thirds of their wealth into it as it was about their only investment option. A crash could pretty much wipe out the middle class.

That's the worst case scenario, but even the best case is not good.

[PC2]

Taiwan belongs to China,

In your dreams, bud. If anything China belongs to Taiwan because Taiwan has more of the real Chinese culture that didn't get cleansed in the rise of communism.

Also if you and I are going to live until the end of this century then I'll bet you that China's political/social/economic system is more like Taiwan's by that point, rather than vice versa. My money is on Taiwan.

Trump or not it's clear the US is heading for some sort of political reckoning unless someone can reconcile the two sides of this country.

Probably not in a dramatic way. The angry extremists on each side will have to cool down. The rest of us don't need to change very much.

I hate to break it to you but most of the western world is facing that same population bomb by 2030-2050. China's problem is bigger though because their social security is pretty much a sham with government official embezzling a lot of it which is why they pushing Confucianism and children supporting their parents instead of the state. The countries first in that line though are South Korea, Japan and some EU countries, the way they survive or not survive through this problem will guide most other countries.

Yeah that's an important global issue but it'll just be a temporary problem in the coming years/decades, until the world figures out how to foster a stable or slightly growing population.