if China invades Taiwan, what do they lose or risk?

[Draco-Onis]

Yeah that's an important global issue but it'll just be a temporary problem in the coming years/decades, until the world figures out how to foster a stable or slightly growing population.

If it was just a temporary problem politicians all over the world wouldn't be avoiding it like the plague, some hard decisions need to be made but whoever makes it is committing political suicide. I doubt the dynamics of that will change if anything it will get worse you will have a large voting population affected by these decisions who will make life hell for any politicians that hurts their bottom line.

Probably not in a dramatic way. The angry extremists on each side will have to cool down. The rest of us don't need to change very much.

The angry extremists on the right are overwhelmingly in office, it's not really an option to think it would go away many thought it would when Trump lost it's gotten worse.

[Edge-]

Yeah that's an important global issue but it'll just be a temporary problem in the coming years/decades, until the world figures out how to foster a stable or slightly growing population.

Everything is a "temporary problem" until we figure out a solution. That doesn't make it any less serious.

Like, a torn artery is a "temporary problem" if you can get it closed up in time to stop from bleeding out. But if you don't, it becomes a very permanent problem since it wasn't addressed in time.

These kinds of sentiments are not just meaningless, they're actively detrimental to taking a serious issue serious as they're implicitly attempting to downplay the severity.

[PC2]

Everything is a "temporary problem" until we figure out a solution. That doesn't make it any less serious.

Like, a torn artery is a "temporary problem" if you can get it closed up in time to stop from bleeding out. But if you don't, it becomes a very permanent problem since it wasn't addressed in time.

These kinds of sentiments are not just meaningless, they're actively detrimental to taking a serious issue serious as they're implicitly attempting to downplay the severity.

You're talking about underpopulation, right? Try to name one person on this forum who has been more pro-natalism and anti-depopulation than me? I've been arguing for policy and cultural changes that will address underpopulation for years but nobody cares because most people think there is too many people and "finite resources", which is absurd.

[Edge-]

You're talking about underpopulation, right?

No, your nonsense, "X is a temporary problem and we can magically fix it." positions on every issue.

Try to name one person on this forum who has been more pro-natalism and anti-depopulation than me?

Nobody is "pro-depopulation"? What the hell does that even mean? Birth rates in developed countries are down and it's not remotely surprising when you look at the reasons why - folks can't afford to start families, folks are worried about bringing children into a world where they'll inherit climate crisis that will be their through their entire lives, women aren't suck in the kitchen at home and can be empowered individuals with control over their reproductive systems etc.

I've been arguing for policy and cultural changes that will address underpopulation for years but nobody cares because most people think there is too many people and "finite resources", which is absurd.

Because finite resources are a thing, and the planet cannot sustain endless population growth at the rate we consume resources. And "We'll colonize other planets" isn't a solution we can bank on, especially not in our lifetimes.

There are solutions for countries with population growth issues: Welcome more immigrants. It's arguably one of the most effective solutions to the problem with low birth rates in some countries.

The whole, "Don't worry about X, it's a temporary problem" schitck is living in fantasy land.

[Shadowferal]

I've been arguing for policy and cultural changes that will address underpopulation for years but nobody cares because most people think there is too many people and "finite resources", which is absurd.

No one cares because you haven't put forth anything that remotely resembled a solution to the problem you imagine exists.

[PC2]

No one cares because you haven't put forth anything that remotely resembled a solution to the problem you imagine exists.

Well we should get back to the topic after this but yeah finding solutions for me is harder because it must be done in a way that is not based on state force and manipulating people's free will. For you solutions are easy because everything reduces down to government manipulation.

Underpopulation is primarily a matter of cultural values/choice and has little to do with other things such as people having too little money. I'm optimistic in the long-term because evolutionary/memetic pressures will get rid of or at least severely limit how many anti-natalists people can even exist in society over time. There's an upper limit. Over the short term I don't know what will happen because we can't predict how cultural values will change from year to year.

[draynay]

Well we should get back to the topic after this but yeah finding solutions for me is harder because it must be done in a way that is not based on state force and manipulating people's free will. For you solutions are easy because everything reduces down to government manipulation.

The government prevents immigration that would otherwise happen, it's disingenuous to refer to a reduction of interference as "government manipulation".

[PC2]

The government prevents immigration that would otherwise happen, it's disingenuous to refer to a reduction of interference as "government manipulation".

Okay, I don't believe in borders anyways. As far as i'm concerned people should just be able to travel anywhere except on other people's private property.

By government "manipulation" I ment policies that are ment to increase/decrease the population by putting extra rules and pressure on people. People will always eventually do the right thing for the good of society so there's no need to pressure folks into behaving a certain way.

[Doctor Amadeus]

In your dreams, bud. If anything China belongs to Taiwan because Taiwan has more of the real Chinese culture that didn't get cleansed in the rise of communism.

Also if you and I are going to live until the end of this century then I'll bet you that China's political/social/economic system is more like Taiwan's by that point, rather than vice versa. My money is on Taiwan.


Probably not in a dramatic way. The angry extremists on each side will have to cool down. The rest of us don't need to change very much.


Yeah that's an important global issue but it'll just be a temporary problem in the coming years/decades, until the world figures out how to foster a stable or slightly growing population.

That is just not reality. Taiwan is recognized as part of China. I didn't make it that way, don't blame me. I am not Asian I have no dog in the fight if they want that to change they have to fight China for it and be recognize.

Sure some might play the silly game of what they call it, I am not

[PC2]

Taiwan is recognized as part of China.

The person who thinks that is mistaken. In 2021 their modern culture is now significantly distinct from that of mainland China and they don't follow CCP law and their taxes don't go to mainland China.

[draynay]

Taiwan belongs to China, Taiwan might like to say otherwise, but generally none is going to dispute it but them, and then it is up to them to decide their future not us.

The bolded part is true, in so far as it concerns our government's position, assuming the way they decide is peaceful.

[Rasulis]

The real estate construction industry makes up about 25% of China's GDP. A hard crash would be very, very bad. And the middle class has sunk two thirds of their wealth into it as it was about their only investment option. A crash could pretty much wipe out the middle class.

That's the worst case scenario, but even the best case is not good.

Interest payment due between October 15 – December 17 of some of the struggling real estate developers in China - Shimao ($820 million), Xinyuan ($229 million), Sinic ($244 million), Seazen Holdings ($100 million), Central China Real Estate ($400 million), Agile ($200 million), Zhenro ($200 million), Ronshine China ($150 million), Kaisa ($400 million), and Fantasia ($249 million). So around $2.9 billion. Around $92 billion in combined bond interest payment will be due in 2022. I have a strong suspicion that the investors won't see their money.

[Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang]

Something like that.

Rasulis, China is an example of too big to fail, they are not idiots, you cannot just make the 2nd biggest economy collapse. It can, however, experience long term severe issues, have shit growth, etc. Few companies failing won't stop it, just like it wouldn't stop USA or any other big enough country. Did people stop eating in 2008 or buying stuff? No, of course not. It was bad, but life did not stop for one moment.

In context of China I would argue more about wider picture. They now have hundreds of millions in a relative "middle class", almost everyone has a mobile phone, etc. They are slowly getting used to higher quality of life, they are demanding more (read, they are doing the same thing West went through). At the same time the average Chinese is quite pro-party and nationalistic.
What I wonder is what would happen if said quality of life was lowered for couple hundred million people? Would that nationalistic fervour and support still be as strong? People dislike stuff being taken away.

A war with Taiwan, if not quick and decisive, not to mention the potential loss would lead to said economic problems. Even the quick victory would, due to cut trade ties and sanctions (remember, West is the best and most capable buyer, they cannot replace us with, say, African countries).
I really wonder how strong the whole socioeconomic structure of PRC is.

Didn't the economy of the USSR collapse along with it? IIRC at the time it had only been recently superseded as the 2nd biggest economy by Japan...

In the 30's Germany's economy was ranked 3rd...

- - - Updated - - -

If only we were that lucky evil doesn't die that easily (see Dick Cheney), that bastard will probably outlive a lot of us. Trump or not it's clear the US is heading for some sort of political reckoning unless someone can reconcile the two sides of this country.

I hate to break it to you but most of the western world is facing that same population bomb by 2030-2050. China's problem is bigger though because their social security is pretty much a sham with government official embezzling a lot of it which is why they pushing Confucianism and children supporting their parents instead of the state. The countries first in that line though are South Korea, Japan and some EU countries, the way they survive or not survive through this problem will guide most other countries.

I recently saw a documentary on elders forgotten in their countrysides, with most/all their son/children far away in the cities and/or dead.

One example was an old lady that kept lamenting as she had lost her son, later we are shown that one of her granddaughters has taken to regularly visit her.

At some point while the old lady keeps moaning the granddaughter asks her to stop making a scene, otherwise the officials will think they are not properly taking care of her and all the family will be sanctioned/thrown in jail.

I saw that as a good illustration of their classical problem solving methods.

[Easo]

Taiwan belongs to China, Taiwan might like to say otherwise, but generally none is going to dispute it but them, and then it is up to them to decide their future not us.

Short answer is - no. No one can deny the obvious historical links and who was ruled by whom, but this is 21st century and Taiwan is and has been de facto independent country for 70+ years now. And China says a lot of things belong to them, the list of territorial disputes is pretty long. Appetite grows while eating...

[Doctor Amadeus]

The person who thinks that is mistaken. In 2021 their modern culture is now significantly distinct from that of mainland China and they don't follow CCP law and their taxes don't go to mainland China.

China seems to see it differently.

[Corvus]

China seems to see it differently.

Germany also thought that their neighbours land belonged to them. Didn't make it so.

[Elegiac]

Taiwan belongs to China

Correction, West Taiwan (i.e. the mainland) belongs to the Republic of China.

Fascist governments are not legitimate ones and Xi Jinping has eliminated any chance of the PRC shedding that pall, so... I guess Chiang Kai-Shek had the last laugh?

[Yadryonych]

Germany also thought that their neighbours land belonged to them. Didn't make it so.

Silly Germany just didn't know when to stop. Everyone was fine with their acquisitions until they crossed the wrong guys

[Noradin]

Well we should get back to the topic after this but yeah finding solutions for me is harder because it must be done in a way that is not based on state force and manipulating people's free will. For you solutions are easy because everything reduces down to government manipulation.

Underpopulation is primarily a matter of cultural values/choice and has little to do with other things such as people having too little money. I'm optimistic in the long-term because evolutionary/memetic pressures will get rid of or at least severely limit how many anti-natalists people can even exist in society over time. There's an upper limit. Over the short term I don't know what will happen because we can't predict how cultural values will change from year to year.

Is that a new cipher for "gays" or for "body autonomy right proponents" or something?

[YUPPIE]

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — China's state-run media on Thursday (Dec. 9) warned that Chinese forces would attack U.S. troops if they attempted to come to Taiwan's aid when the "reunification force" invades.

On Tuesday (Dec. 7), U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that his country would "take every action" to ensure that a scenario in which Russia and China simultaneously invade Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively, "never happens." In an editorial posted on Thursday, China's state-owned Global Times attempted to cast doubt about America's willingness to defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion by People's Liberation Army (PLA) forces.

The publication claimed that Sullivan's "boast" is not credible because the U.S. "simply cannot build a deterrent to prevent" China from "carrying out reunification by force." It said the U.S. does not have the "true will to defend Taiwan at all costs."

The editorial pointed out that the U.S. is mainly supporting the buildup of Taiwan's self-defense capabilities through the sale of weapons. However, it argued that these weapons "are generally destined to be destroyed by the People's Liberation Army" as soon as the "reunification force" makes its move.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4371527