Space Travel & Exploration

[Noxx79]

No, I got it.

The ISS does indeed exist and orbits the oblate spheroid that is Earth.

[Nerraw]

If Russia skips out on all ISS obligations, the boost is in jeopardy - and even if it isn't immediately necessary, it's still eventually needed - and there is no solution outside of Soyuz. So, mr. cryptic one-line no-sources-in-your-posts, what isn't there to worry about again?

Cygnus is also able to do it. It's been confirmed there is indeed hardware for two more Antares launches. They can time those to maximize impact on boosting the station until an alternative is worked out.

One such alternative being thrown around is launching Cygnus on a Falcon, but I honestly don't know how feasible that is. Still, there's no doubt that NASA is working with all contractors and partners on finding new temporary or permanent solutions.

[Hammerfest]

The ISS does indeed exist and orbits the oblate spheroid that is Earth.

Oh if you say so, Noxx79.

[Calfredd]

It seems like, at a high cursory glance, that the way forward is SpaceX and pushing other U.S. based private agencies to build their own payload engines here. Russia has to be out for the foreseeable future.

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Maybe you missed this post...



If Russia skips out on all ISS obligations, the boost is in jeopardy - and even if it isn't immediately necessary, it's still eventually needed - and there is no solution outside of Soyuz. So, mr. cryptic one-line no-sources-in-your-posts, what isn't there to worry about again?

Think you forgot that Hammerfest is a science-denying flat-earther.

[cubby]

No, I got it.

Apparently you did not. But please feel free to actually explain your thoughts rather than just post your usual cryptic one-liners.

[Hammerfest]

Apparently you did not. But please feel free to actually explain your thoughts rather than just post your usual cryptic one-liners.

I'm good. Thanks.

[PACOX]

Roscos gives up ISS responsibilities? NASA already didn't put faith in Russia and has contingencies in place ie decouple and say "Bye Felicia". Good way for one guy to further Russia's international reputation as the ESA would give up working with Russia all together.

Said it somewhere else but NASA is already looking past maintaining the ISS at the turn of the decade. Russian vehicles are no longer needed to reach the ISS and a number of private companies (hell even SpaceX) can fill for the absence of RD-181s.


Want to get NASA to streamline its processes and get some projects pushed through, please by all means cease relationships with Roscos. Maybe Blue Origin will start delivering engines.

[Calfredd]

I'm good. Thanks.

You aren't good but that's beside the point.

[cubby]

I'm good. Thanks.

Rather often understated notes deploy negatively on the forums linking a topic. This is one such case.

If you'd like to explore your idea, we'd like to hear it, but don't shit post and take away from the conversation. Why do you think the ISS is something not to worry about? Offhand, literally not having any way to currently boost it's orbit, seems at least mildly troublesome.

[Nerraw]

Maybe Blue Origin will start delivering engines.

Jeff Bezos cares about Jeff Bezos. And Jeff Bezos is not impacted by Vulcan flying, and Jeff Bezos is not impacted by Vulcan not flying. Because Jeff Bezos himself is not yet flying (into orbit).

Maybe the BE-4 will be ready this year, maybe it won't. But he's not gonna "waste" his time expediting the construction of engines he himself will not need until New Glenn is ready to go.

[Hammerfest]

Rather often understated notes deploy negatively on the forums linking a topic. This is one such case.

If you'd like to explore your idea, we'd like to hear it, but don't shit post and take away from the conversation. Why do you think the ISS is something not to worry about? Offhand, literally not having any way to currently boost it's orbit, seems at least mildly troublesome.

Not interested in a ban at the moment. Thanks.

[PACOX]

Jeff Bezos cares about Jeff Bezos. And Jeff Bezos is not impacted by Vulcan flying, and Jeff Bezos is not impacted by Vulcan not flying. Because Jeff Bezos himself is not yet flying (into orbit).

Maybe the BE-4 will be ready this year, maybe it won't. But he's not gonna "waste" his time expediting the construction of engines he himself will not need until New Glenn is ready to go.

Sad but try.

[cubby]

The Russians just declared no more rockets, period, for the West. Doesn't that mean SpaceX is pretty much our only consistent launch capability now for the U.S.? Outside of maybe 2-3 launches?

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Soooooo. Things have changed a little bit recently, and it's not looking great for most space actors at this point:

Western launch operators
ULA: Relatively unaffected. The almost-retired Atlas 5 RD-180 engines are Russian, but they seem to have all the engines needed to finish out its remaining missions. Still fucked in the way that Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin has not delivered the engines for the replacement Vulcan rocket yet. These engines are almost 5 years overdue now. They are "confident" that they'll launch "this year" after having said the same thing for last year and the year before. Confidence-inspiring for sure.

Northrup Grumman: Fucked. Fucked every which way every day of the week. Their Antares launch vehicle runs on Russian RD-181 engines, and the first stage is manufactured in Ukraine. Said factory was flattened by Russia within the first 48 hours of the invasion. Word going around is that they have enough hardware for two more launches, and then that's it.

Arianespace: Kinda screwed. Arianespace has three rockets, going from the light Vega, the medium Soyuz (contracted from Russia), and the heavy Ariane 5. Vega's upper stage is manufactured in Ukraine, so its status is wholly unknown at the moment. Russia has terminated its Soyuz contract with the company and withdrawn all Russian personnel from French Guiana. And like the Atlas 5, the Ariane 5's future has already contractually come to an end. Still a number of launches to come, but the rocket is effectively retired. It is to be replaced by the Ariane 6, but like the Vulcan this rocket is several years overdue.

SpaceX: Completely unaffected.

There are of course a number of smaller US launch providers, but at this point in time none of them have flight hardware to take on anything remotely close to the payload weight class covered by the above.

Without SpaceX, the US launch capabilities would be gone. There is absolutely no redundancy whatsoever right now. Old Space has fucked around for years, and now they are truly finding out.



Science missions
International Space Station: In effect, nothing has changed here yet. However, the head of Roscosmos has been making a lot of troubling comments in the past week, including threatening to abandon the ISS and risk letting it fall on populated Western cities. A major problem here is that there are currently only two ways to boost the space stations orbit (required every so often because of atmospheric drag), and those two are Soyuz, and the US-based Cygnus spacecraft which launches on the aforementioned doomed Antares. Elon Musk has declared that SpaceX would be able to find a way to boost the station, which I have no doubt he can do, but as of right now the station may or may not survive past 2023 when the Russian contract is up for renewal. NASA has said they are indeed exploring contingencies, but they will continue to attempt working with the Russian science divisions on the subject. US astronaut on station launched on a Soyuz is still scheduled to come home on said Soyuz later this month.

ExoMars: The ESA/Roscosmos collaborative Mars lander mission, while being delayed a few years due to issues, was looking good for launching during the Mars launch window later this year. ESA has already announced this is unlikely to ever happen now, as they have taken a far harder stance on Russia than NASA has so far.

Venara: Roscosmos and NASA were collaborating on a Venara Venus exploration mission, but that has already been canned. NASA probably won't care much as they have two Venus missions of their own coming up this decade.

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And it looks like OneWeb is finally being impacted as well: https://twitter.com/lorengrush/statu...93356097175553

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Rogozin has decided to hold the OneWeb payload ransom and has given the UK government two days to change their mind and give up their stake in the project: https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/...59445074206723

The only remaining link of cooperation between Roscosmos and the west is now the ISS. I think it's safe to say that no one will ever invest in cooperating with the Russian space program ever again.

And I saw/read this post, but does the most recent Russian proclamation make the above situation worse for some companies? And if SpaceX is the only launch facility available to the U.S., shouldn't we semi-nationalize it? More than it already is at least. Or put in more "protection", whatever form that might take?

[Nerraw]

The Russians just declared no more rockets, period, for the West. Doesn't that mean SpaceX is pretty much our only consistent launch capability now for the U.S.? Outside of maybe 2-3 launches?

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And I saw/read this post, but does the most recent Russian proclamation make the above situation worse for some companies? And if SpaceX is the only launch facility available to the U.S., shouldn't we semi-nationalize it? More than it already is at least. Or put in more "protection", whatever form that might take?

Recent statements may have been extra nails in the coffin, but in reality it doesn't change much since I wrote that wall. What has truly been impacted since then are the commercial and scientific missions. Those will have to look elsewhere now.

And sure, SpaceX are definitely the only Western launch provider with spare capacity right now, but it won't last long. Worst-case scenario is probably two years, with a more likely scenario being less than a year, until competitors can take on contracts again.

Bigger problem are the vertically-integrated payloads, as SpaceX cannot take those on. They are working on a vertical assembly building for Pad 39A, but I have no idea what the status of that is. Until then they can only take on horizontally-integrated cargo. So if your stuff requires vertical integration, you gotta wait.

[Fantomen]

Maybe the BE-4 will be ready this year, maybe it won't. But he's not gonna "waste" his time expediting the construction of engines he himself will not need until New Glenn is ready to go.

Yes BO have no motivation to complet BE-4, a few more years and ULA is destroyed, and BO can take its place.

[PACOX]

Ironic that man who cried about not winning a NASA contract (Bezos) is the national bottleneck. Push come to shove, see NASA uplift Astra and Rocketlabs

[Nerraw]

Ironic that man who cried about not winning a NASA contract (Bezos) is the national bottleneck. Push come to shove, see NASA uplift Astra and Rocketlabs

Bezos is 100% Old Space. He tried to be hip about the whole thing and wanted Elon Musk's popularity in spaceflight, but in the end he didn't want to put in the work and ended up just like the rest of the ancient dinosaurs.

And the smaller launch companies will absolutely have their day. But again, it'll take years (few to many) for them to get to that point. Remember that SpaceX used to be what those companies are now. SpaceX started in 2002, and didn't have their first successful launch to orbit until 2008. They didn't actually fly a contract until 2010 when they flew a Dragon for NASA for the first time.

[Stormspark]

I consider Blue Origin complete vaporware. I don't expect anything they are talking about to ever exist. So it's effectively SpaceX + whatever leftover crap the launch providers have. Since SpaceX is the only one in the world with modern rockets, the others only have a few launches before they run out.

US astronaut on station launched on a Soyuz is still scheduled to come home on said Soyuz later this month.

Um...that's a colosally bad idea. I fully expect Putin to just take this person hostage. I'd wait for a Dragon.

[Shadowferal]

"Houston? We have a problem!"

[Easo]

Roscosmos has seized the payload, AND is keeping the money already paid for all the planned OneWeb launches in 2021. Who in their right minds would risk entrusting Roscosmos with their payloads?

Everyone else? Common, a country in Asia will clearly understand why exactly that payload was seized - answer to sanctions. And they still need to launch their stuff.