Space Travel & Exploration

[PACOX]

Wasn't it just in another thread that someone said a space debris problem would kind of figure itself out?

[Biglog]

China, Russia, and the US have all shot down satellites before. The main issue in this case was the high altitude at which Russia did this test. The US for example has shot down satellites since the 80's. But the US did this at much lower altitude which gave the debris a higher likelihood of burning up, not stay in orbit for very long, and not be high enough to interfere with other objects like the ISS. Russia did their test at a very high altitude for some strange reason which is why it created a huge debris field that will be around for a far longer time, where objects from it already have come within 6 km of the ISS. Even if they completely didn't care about the debris (and they should) it was a poor test since the higher the altitude the easier the satellite is to intercept. A test at lower altitude would have been a more challenging interception and it would have also avoided creating this large and messy debris field at an orbit that is almost geocentric because of weak gravity that high up. Debris at that altitude isn't going to simply 'figure itself out' for a very long time.

Russia and China are both not showing much in the way of space manners lately ftm. China has been using old Soviet rocket technology for their launches related to their space station. The rocket uses 4 large boosters which come down completely uncontrolled and China has no idea where they will go each time. So they accept the risk that any of these 4 boosters on each launch as they tumble back through the atmosphere on return uncontrolled and could land on other countries or people. It was the Soviet design approach for progress > safety, and China leveraging old Soviet rocket design has carried that approach on. China has to do many launches for their space station, so that is a lot of their boosters falling randomly around the world without care, potentially landing on anyone on Earth anywhere.

As a side-note, these anti-satellite (ASAT) tests are essentially the same as ABM tests. But keep in mind that none of the US, Russia, or China have anywhere remotely enough ABM to really help in a large scale WW3 type all-out nuclear war. Russia may be trying to get there eventually with the S-400/S-500/S-550, but the US and Russia have over 2500 nukes each, with China estimated to get there by 2030 - and China is so secretive that who knows how much they really have already. What they have is enough ABM to defend against a rogue country like maybe Iran or North Korea doing a small scale launch. But don't hope for ABM to save either side in a WW3 scenario, the big powers have way more than enough to overcome that for better or worse. Good for continued MAD deterrence, bad for our existence if it ever happens.

[bledgor]

Somewhat related the DART (double asteroid rediction test) mission launched tonight, first trial of planetary defense from asteroids. Now it wont hit for a year iirc, but cool to see the experiments going on.

[PACOX]

Somewhat related the DART (double asteroid rediction test) mission launched tonight, first trial of planetary defense from asteroids. Now it wont hit for a year iirc, but cool to see the experiments going on.

Also SpaceX's first interplanetary mission. A nice little milestone for any rocket agency.

[Nerraw]

Also SpaceX's first interplanetary mission. A nice little milestone for any rocket agency.

For the Falcon 9. Falcon Heavy already went interplanetary with the Roadster.

[cubby]

Also SpaceX's first interplanetary mission. A nice little milestone for any rocket agency.

Very nice milestone. NASA has to be thrilled with this arrangement. They get all the launches they want, none of the development bullshit/headache. If it works out it's just one more of their "spin-offs" and if it doesn't it's not their fault. And all their "smaller" projects have 1/10th of the launch cost, so the money can do into the mission rather than the transport.

[cubby]

Musk is saying (from a memo last week) that SpaceX might face bankruptcy if they can't ramp up Raptor engine production. They will need, apparently, to launch a StarShip once every two weeks to remain solvent. I'm not sure where they are going to get the customers for that kind of load every couple of weeks.

Could just be more of Musk's shenanigans. His social/personal insanity is bound to boil over into even his most favorite venture.

[Easo]

Yeah that sounds pretty kookoo, Musk really needs to start taking his medicine. SpaceX is contracted for years to come, unless whole Starship project is horribly mismanadged and over the budget they are not going to go bankrupt.
In other news hype over the James Webb Space telescope is slowly increasing:

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59419110

[cubby]

Russia is upping it's misinformation game, sending a criminal inquiry to [who knows where] stemming from a 2018 incident wherein a small hole was found in the ISS. Russia claims it was a NASA Astronaut who attempted the "sabotage". NASA labels that as nonsense.

What's more interesting is the recent events, starting with that drilled hole, then the "ramming" of ISS with the science module docking, then the ASAT test that heavily risked ISS, and now this - seems like Russia isn't really keen on ISS.

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Yeah that sounds pretty kookoo, Musk really needs to start taking his medicine. SpaceX is contracted for years to come, unless whole Starship project is horribly mismanadged and over the budget they are not going to go bankrupt.
In other news hype over the James Webb Space telescope is slowly increasing:

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59419110

Really excited about the JWST going up.

[PACOX]

On the SpaceX thing

Either Musk is trying to push him employees to give him so more free time/after hour work to push deadlines. He is trying to finesse NASA even though NASA is already trying to finesse Congress, he gets in a lot more trouble if he is lying. SpaceX was poorly managed.

Whether theres actually enough demand for amount of reusability SpaceX bets on. Enough demand for it to be economically viable. SpaceX launches A LOT. Most of SpaceX launches are their out Starlink satellites. All of that is wasted money if Starlink isn't deemed. Goes back to why no many agencies are trying to go full reusable like SpaceX. Is all the infrastructure required to sustain highly reusable rockets worth it theres not enough demand to keep up with the supply?

[Easo]

Russia is upping it's misinformation game, sending a criminal inquiry to [who knows where] stemming from a 2018 incident wherein a small hole was found in the ISS. Russia claims it was a NASA Astronaut who attempted the "sabotage". NASA labels that as nonsense.

What's more interesting is the recent events, starting with that drilled hole, then the "ramming" of ISS with the science module docking, then the ASAT test that heavily risked ISS, and now this - seems like Russia isn't really keen on ISS.

I saw the Russian official "version" being ridiculed on Runet pages. Summary, unless it all is fake, is basically this - there were 8 drilling attempts as per official version. How would others not hear that??? There was no dust/debris found - so it would take a second person with vacuum cleaner attending. It would take a half meter long drill to access that wall, since ISS is full of equipment and you don't get direct access to that place - there is no such drill on ISS. And most importantly - the hole was made from outside, which makes it impossible being done in space.

In short - no malice but probably just incompetence on the ground/a technician going nuts for whatever reason. Obviously you can't admit that, so...

[cubby]

On the SpaceX thing

Either Musk is trying to push him employees to give him so more free time/after hour work to push deadlines. He is trying to finesse NASA even though NASA is already trying to finesse Congress, he gets in a lot more trouble if he is lying. SpaceX was poorly managed.

Whether theres actually enough demand for amount of reusability SpaceX bets on. Enough demand for it to be economically viable. SpaceX launches A LOT. Most of SpaceX launches are their out Starlink satellites. All of that is wasted money if Starlink isn't deemed. Goes back to why no many agencies are trying to go full reusable like SpaceX. Is all the infrastructure required to sustain highly reusable rockets worth it theres not enough demand to keep up with the supply?

Is he trying to finesse NASA for more funds/missions/launches or something else. It seems like NASA is already in Musk's back pocket with SpaceX being able to bring astronauts to ISS.

The demand issue should be interesting given StarShip's size. We've discussed that before. I would think the issue is just how much each launch can bring up. The Falcon's are covering everyone's needs right now, along with the other companies who are launching. Hopefully NASA will use StarShip for the Moon Base and Orbital Platform needs, where launching fuel and other big ticket items are needed.

[PACOX]

Pretty sweet.

I was doing some back-of-the-envelope math. If the U.S.'s new rocket force - SLS, SpaceX, Virgin (IIRC, Bezos is getting people to space, but has yet to achieve LEO - should if I'm off on that assessment) - can each launch significant weight, the U.S. might be able to get a pretty good weight portion of the ISS into space. In other words, replacing the old ISS, on a commercial basis, might not be that relatively difficult. Obviously, it would need to be designed and built, but none of the private agencies have been bothered in the past with cribbing NASA plans.

Unity was the habitable portion of the ISS and it weighed 11,600kg. That's nothing in the realm of the lift capacity we have today. Size would be another issue, of course, but still, it's feasible. Just a thought.

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Agreed. The automobile is a terrible example, of course, for the very reason you mentioned. I'm NASA knew it was going to run it's course, but it wasn't planned obsolescence.

NASA does not need SpaceX so that SpaceX allows them avoid political suits that love to with NASA's prohects and money, see SLS.

SpaceX left a lot money on the table to get its contractd. Maybe Musk wants some of that money.

I really think Musk is just trying to get some work out of his employees.

[cubby]

NASA does not need SpaceX so that SpaceX allows them avoid political suits that love to with NASA's prohects and money, see SLS.

I'm not following you here - what do you mean?

I really think Musk is just trying to get some work out of his employees.

Lol, I wouldn't be surprised.

[PACOX]

NASA does not need SpaceX so that SpaceX allows them avoid political suits that love to with NASA's projects and money, see SLS.

I'm not following you here - what do you mean?

NASAs projects and work done on those projects is dictated by the government. That means NASA could see various levels of shake ups/disturbances every 2/4/6 years. Why didn't we have our own ride to the ISS and why wasn't SLS being worked on for half a decade? Politics. All these commercial agencies let NASA get around Congress. NASA said it needs money to build a lunar lander. Congress says no. NASA says it needs money an expansion project, Congress says yes, NASA gives the money to a 3rd party like SpaceX to build the lander while dictating core specifications. Congress can't come in and take the money back or kill the project once the money has been passed off to a private party.

SpaceX is approaching a point where it doesn't need NASA anymore. SpaceX will be a lot more independent in the near future assuming Starship works and it doesn't burn a hole in their books,

[Tsarez]

JWST scheduled to launch tomorrow. Weather keeps disrupting the plan atm

Excited as hell. Hope all goes well now and in the next few weeks while the telescope is traveling to its final destination. So hyped to see the first images of infrared spectrum deep space.

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It goes back almost all the way, doesn't it? Like seeing the first hour of the Big Bang, theoretically.

No, not that far. But 2% of the universe's age... some 200 million years after the big bang? Which is plenty tbh, basically the beginning of the very first stars.

[cubby]

JWST scheduled to launch tomorrow. Weather keeps disrupting the plan atm

Excited as hell. Hope all goes well now and in the next few weeks while the telescope is traveling to its final destination. So hyped to see the first images of infrared spectrum deep space.

Will JWST's final orbit be in a place accessible by ISS or other crew to repair if needed? I would guess/hope so, but wasn't sure.

No, not that far. But 2% of the universe's age... some 200 million years after the big bang? Which is plenty tbh, basically the beginning of the very first stars.

Thanks for the clarification. Holy cow though - to be able to see the first stars.

[PACOX]

Will JWST's final orbit be in a place accessible by ISS or other crew to repair if needed? I would guess/hope so, but wasn't sure.

Oh man, not even close. It's going to pass the Moon.

Its a very ambitious project.

[Tsarez]

Will JWST's final orbit be in a place accessible by ISS or other crew to repair if needed? I would guess/hope so, but wasn't sure.




Thanks for the clarification. Holy cow though - to be able to see the first stars.

No, no maintenance is possible. It's absolutely out of question with our current technology to reach it once it sets out. That's what makes all of this so scary and exciting.

It will not even be in regular orbit. It's FUCKING far our there, in order to turn it's back to the sun, earth and moon. Nearly 1 million miles from Earth

It will circle around Lagrange Point 2.

Just Google that and be in awe from where that beast is going to lurk into the vast abyss


Edit: poster above me already linked an image. Honestly, to me this feels like my very own moon landing. The only thing to top this will be setting foot on Mars.

[cubby]

Oh man, not even close. It's going to pass the Moon.

Its a very ambitious project.

Oh, holy shit - near one of the Lagrange points. Lol, yeah, that's not going to be accessible at all. That's awesome.

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No, no maintenance is possible. It's absolutely out of question with our current technology to reach it once it sets out. That's what makes all of this so scary and exciting.

It will not even be in regular orbit. It's FUCKING far our there, in order to turn it's back to the sun, earth and moon. Nearly 1 million miles from Earth

It will circle around Lagrange Point 2.

Just Google that and be in awe from where that beast is going to lurk into the vast abyss


Edit: poster above me already linked an image. Honestly, to me this feels like my very own moon landing. The only thing to top this will be setting foot on Mars.

I actually know about the Lagrange points from the sci-fi I read and mostly understand (I can spell orbital mechanics!). That is awesome.