Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Barzotti]

The news lately spam that Donbas will be lost and that Ukraine will enter in EU but not Nato, they seem to set the ground for such deal. I wonder if the Russians will accept this deal or try to go further than Donbas and reinforce further their army. I personally think that the west is very confident with such deal because something bigger is involved, like "accept this deal or ww3"

There is zero chance of Ukraine getting into the EU until ten-fifteen years at least.

[Gorsameth]

The news lately spam that Donbas will be lost and that Ukraine will enter in EU but not Nato, they seem to set the ground for such deal. I wonder if the Russians will accept this deal or try to go further than Donbas and reinforce further their army. I personally think that the west is very confident with such deal because something bigger is involved, like "accept this deal or ww3"

I think Russia would settle for getting Donbas and their land bridge to Crimea.

But what Russia would accept is not relevant when Ukraine has no reason to accept anything less what they had before the invasion started. The long term conflict favours them, not Russia.

[Slant]

The news lately spam that Donbas will be lost and that Ukraine will enter in EU but not Nato, they seem to set the ground for such deal. I wonder if the Russians will accept this deal or try to go further than Donbas and reinforce further their army. I personally think that the west is very confident with such deal because something bigger is involved, like "accept this deal or ww3"

The news have no clue and aren't thinking clearly.

Here's the inside scoop of how it's going to go down: The Ukraine will retake everything. And they will join whatever organisation they want to join. They are WINNING this war.

Russia's cooperation is not needed for anything. There is nothing Russia could negotiate with.

Russia "accepting the deal" is irrelevant. Russian opinion is insignificant to the outcome to all those decisions.

[Crispin]

The news lately spam that Donbas will be lost and that Ukraine will enter in EU but not Nato, they seem to set the ground for such deal. I wonder if the Russians will accept this deal or try to go further than Donbas and reinforce further their army. I personally think that the west is very confident with such deal because something bigger is involved, like "accept this deal or ww3"

As someone else wrote, Ukranian EU membership is decades down the road.

[Gaidax]

People are funny if they think Ukraine will be in EU soon - EU can't even agree on a bloody oil embargo and you imagine they would agree to that.

Best case scenario for Ukraine in EU would be something akin to Putin kicking the bucked, current Russian regime collapsing and complete 180 degrees turnaround towards West by subsequent whoever it will be their next Warchief there. Then - maybe Ukraine will be in EU until 2030.

Ukraine itself has a long shopping list of what it would need to do to be a member as well, after all it's still an ex-Soviet republic with a big corruption problem of its own. They will need a good half a decade to even begin cleaning that shit up.

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As for what is happening now - it is clear that Russia will probably grab another town or two, then dig in and declare "mission accomplished". There is maybe a chance for Ukraine to try and do a counterattack on some positions somewhere in July/August so they might take some areas back. And then it will be a simmering war of attrition for a year or two until Putin croaks and maybe some less checky leadership in Russia emerges.

[Forogil]

People are funny if they think Ukraine will be in EU soon - EU can't even agree on a bloody oil embargo and you imagine they would agree to that.

True, but if we look at gas it's stranger; as Ukraine still hasn't cut off export of Russian gas through Ukraine.

Basically too many rely on the energy flowing from Russia to EU.

[Gaidax]

True, but if we look at gas it's stranger; as Ukraine still hasn't cut off export of Russian gas through Ukraine.

Basically too many rely on the energy flowing from Russia to EU.

Very likely due to EU/West pressure.

After all, war is bad and all, but the spice must flow.

[jonnysensible]

russians executing ukranians they capture, loads of photos from lyman of ukranians with hands tied behind their backs being executed. Fucking russian pigs

[zealo]

People are funny if they think Ukraine will be in EU soon - EU can't even agree on a bloody oil embargo and you imagine they would agree to that.

Best case scenario for Ukraine in EU would be something akin to Putin kicking the bucked, current Russian regime collapsing and complete 180 degrees turnaround towards West by subsequent whoever it will be their next Warchief there. Then - maybe Ukraine will be in EU until 2030.

Ukraine itself has a long shopping list of what it would need to do to be a member as well, after all it's still an ex-Soviet republic with a big corruption problem of its own. They will need a good half a decade to even begin cleaning that shit up.

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As for what is happening now - it is clear that Russia will probably grab another town or two, then dig in and declare "mission accomplished". There is maybe a chance for Ukraine to try and do a counterattack on some positions somewhere in July/August so they might take some areas back. And then it will be a simmering war of attrition for a year or two until Putin croaks and maybe some less checky leadership in Russia emerges.

People thinking Ukraine should be fast-tracked inside the EU fundamentally misunderstand what the EU is about, really.

While there is a mutual defense clause (of which there can be arguments held about just what that means, too), the EU isn't a military alliance in it's primary purpose, it needs to be real careful about inviting nations still grappling with a ton of domestic corruption before they're ready, dealing with Hungary and Poland is already pushing it in areas like rule of law, and displays the EU in it's current form isn't equipped to handle democratic backsliding from states once they have become full members.

[Mamut]

Ukrainian secret service has "confirmed" that Putin has cancer, take that as you will.

Does this even matter? Will anything change when he will be replaced? I think Russia is going to be Russia, they will not admit that Putin was the bad guy but instead there will be propaganda how they liberate world from nazis and NATO just signed by different leader and thats all.

[Azadina]

People thinking Ukraine should be fast-tracked inside the EU fundamentally misunderstand what the EU is about, really.

While there is a mutual defense clause (of which there can be arguments held about just what that means, too), the EU isn't a military alliance in it's primary purpose, it needs to be real careful about inviting nations still grappling with a ton of domestic corruption before they're ready, dealing with Hungary and Poland is already pushing it in areas like rule of law, and displays the EU in it's current form isn't equipped to handle democratic backsliding from states once they have become full members.

Neither is NATO tbh. Turkey has shown that plenty of times along the years.

[XDurionX]

Does this even matter? Will anything change when he will be replaced? I think Russia is going to be Russia, they will not admit that Putin was the bad guy but instead there will be propaganda how they liberate world from nazis and NATO just signed by different leader and thats all.

Well if anything, this makes him more dangerous imho.

[Iphie]

Does this even matter? Will anything change when he will be replaced? I think Russia is going to be Russia, they will not admit that Putin was the bad guy but instead there will be propaganda how they liberate world from nazis and NATO just signed by different leader and thats all.

Eeehh...yes and no, it's still a time honoured habit of blaming the previous guy in russia. putin might escape it due to popularity but that's easily deconstructed.

russians executing ukranians they capture, loads of photos from lyman of ukranians with hands tied behind their backs being executed. Fucking russian pigs

Got anything on that or just hearsay? Not saying I don't believe you as we've all seen Bucha but without a link to an article it's hard to verify.

[zealo]

Neither is NATO tbh. Turkey has shown that plenty of times along the years.

NATO has never really been about democracy as such, but the west presenting a unified front against the east block with the USSR, and then Russia after it. Turkey's been in NATO since the 1950s, and even back during the cold war they weren't all peachy in that regard with military coups about once per decade as islamists came into power.

[Gaidax]

Eeehh...yes and no, it's still a time honoured habit of blaming the previous guy in russia. putin might escape it due to popularity but that's easily deconstructed.

Ditto and likely scenario.

Except for current popularity not mattering much if Russia would need to put up operation scapegoat, something many in West would be too happy to jump on to oblige. "Look that guy did this all, we're all nice and pure as early morning snow".

[jonnysensible]

Got anything on that or just hearsay? Not saying I don't believe you as we've all seen Bucha but without a link to an article it's hard to verify.

Russian propaganda account on telegram posting them saying 'deserters executed by the Ukrainians'

but they are all half dressed with tattoos showing and we know Russians tell Ukrainian POWs to undress and show their tattoos first thing after capture.

So 1+1=2

[Iphie]

Ditto and likely scenario.

Except for current popularity not mattering much if Russia would need to put up operation scapegoat, something many in West would be too happy to jump on to oblige. "Look that guy did this all, we're all nice and pure as early morning snow".

While we won't normalize relations with russia for the foreseeable future regardless of who is in charge I'm pretty confident that you are quite right that we would be more than willing to put the blame on putin if the russians give us the opportunity.

Russian propaganda account on telegram posting them saying 'deserters executed by the Ukrainians'

but they are all half dressed with tattoos showing and we know Russians tell Ukrainian POWs to undress and show their tattoos first thing after capture.

So 1+1=2

So nothing conclusively verified by the Ukrainians then? I mean I would put more stock in that than in a russian propaganda account, regardless of what they say.

[Shalcker]

If Russia was blockading or controlling all the ports, then how would escorting warships would even be able to pass through without starting a WWIII?

NATO ships cannot even enter Black Sea for the same reason any additional Russian ones cannot during war - Montreux Convention.

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Russia's Duma abolishes the age limit for contract soldiers in the armed forces, allowing men over 40 (and under 18) to now serve

Sending a bunch of 14 year olds and 70 year olds isn't going to solve the manpower problems lads.

You see, Russian military can retire with full pension after 20 years of service.

Given that men could be drafted at 18, 40+ are "just retired" military with a lot of experience.

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And on another note on "US not allowing Russia to pay debt in dollars"... next "dollar-only" payment is due at 24 June, then there will be one month grace period, so there are two months to make alternative arrangements (already announced) before any kind of default can happen.

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In other financial news today after Rouble recently hit 56 roubles per dollar Central Bank of Russia dropped key rate by 3% to 11% - just 1% above pre-"special operation" level.

Limited return of operations by foreigners on Russian market was announced for the end of June, and capital controls keep getting weakened (less mandatory sales by exporters, higher allowed withdrawal levels for individuals).

Fuel prices are dropping in Russia https://www.globalpetrolprices.com/R...soline_prices/
(compare and contrast with US and UK).

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On a gas front...

Qatar says new gas from Qatar will come no sooner then 2026; they might get some from their US LNG venture where they have 70% stake in 2024.

But... so far they want 20 year contract and oil price linking (something which EU fought hard against with GazProm and only recently "won" in getting higher spot price weighting).

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/qa...130838959.html

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Qatar Limited in Supplying LNG to Germany With Output Maxed Out

Germany’s efforts to secure more natural gas from Qatar yielded only modest results, with the Persian Gulf energy giant unable to offer any extra flows for another two years as output is already at full tilt.

Qatar said liquefied natural gas could be sent to Germany from a new US plant it has a stake in, from 2024. An expansion project at home won’t begin operations until at least 2026, later than expected.
...

“We aim to have our LNG plant Golden Pass in Texas, 70% of which are owned by Qatar Energy, ready by 2024 so that we can deliver to Germany,” Deputy Premier Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani told Handelsblatt newspaper.

But there have been differences between the two sides on the terms, a person familiar with the discussions said. German companies are reluctant to commit to buy LNG over 20 years or more because of the country’s goal of cutting carbon emissions by 88% by 2040, said the person.

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[Makabreska]

Aw shit here we go again!

[Belize]

Aw shit here we go again!

Someone's working overtime to catch up it looks like.

Bro isn't even waiting to respond to other comments.