Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shalcker]

Aren't you going to get in trouble for publishing actual journalism during your propaganda stints?

Even if both sides are close in morale - while one side has overwhelming numbers advantage it is quite obvious which one will end up winning.

...and then there are divisions in Western views on how endgame is supposed to look like.

NYT: How Does It End? Fissures Emerge Over What Constitutes Victory in Ukraine

In Europe, Unity Begins to Fracture

NATO and the European Union have been surprisingly united so far in supporting Ukraine, both with painful economic sanctions aimed at Russia and in supplying an increasing quantity of weapons to Ukraine, though not jet fighters or advanced tanks.

But that unity is under strain. Hungary, which has supported five earlier sanctions packages, has balked at an embargo on Russian oil, on which it depends. And the Europeans are not even trying, at least for now, to cut off their imports of Russian gas.

The divisions are visible in war aims, too.

Leaders in central and eastern Europe, with its long experience of Soviet domination, have strong views about defeating Russia — even rejecting the idea of speaking to Mr. Putin. Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, and Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, speak of him as a war criminal, as Mr. Biden did.

“All these events should wake us from our geopolitical slumber and cause us to cast off our delusions, our old delusions, but is that enough?” Mr. Morawiecki said last week. “I hear there are attempts to allow Putin to somehow save face in the international arena. But how can you save something that has been utterly disfigured?” he asked.

But France, Italy and Germany, the biggest and richest countries of the bloc, are anxious about a long war or one that ends frozen in a stalemate, and nervous of the possible damage to their own economies.

Those countries also think of Russia as an inescapable neighbor that cannot be isolated forever. Following his re-election, Emmanuel Macron of France began hedging his bets, declaring that a future peace in Eastern Europe must not include an unnecessary humiliation of Russia, and could include territorial concessions to Moscow.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi called this month for a cease-fire in Ukraine “as soon as possible” to enable a negotiated end to the war. Mr. Draghi, who has taken a hard line against Russia in traditionally Moscow-friendly Italy, said economic pressure was important “because we have to bring Moscow to the negotiating table.”
Zelensky’s Choice: Territorial Integrity or Grinding War

Mr. Zelensky has been careful not to expand his aims toward a larger degradation of Mr. Putin’s regime. He has said repeatedly that he wants the Russians pushed back to where they were on Feb. 23, before the large-scale invasion started.

Only then, he has said, would Ukraine be prepared to negotiate seriously again with Russia about a cease-fire and a settlement. He said again this week that the war will have to end with a diplomatic solution, not a sweeping military victory.

But even those aims are considered by some European officials and military experts to be ambitious. To get there, Ukraine would have to take back Kherson and the ravaged city of Mariupol. It would have to push Russia out of its land bridge to Crimea and stop Russia from annexing large parts of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Many experts fear that is beyond Ukraine’s capability.

While Ukraine did remarkably well in the first phase of the war, Donbas is very different. To go on the offensive normally requires a manpower advantage of 3 to 1, weaponry aside, which Ukraine does not now possess. The Russians are making slow but incremental gains, if at a high cost in casualties. (While Washington and London are happy to provide estimates of Russian casualties, sometimes rather high, according to some military experts, they say little about Ukrainian casualties. Ukraine is treating those figures as state secrets.)

[Specialka]

Even if both sides are close in morale - while one side has overwhelming numbers advantage it is quite obvious which one will end up winning.

...and then there are divisions in Western views on how endgame is supposed to look like.

NYT: How Does It End? Fissures Emerge Over What Constitutes Victory in Ukraine

In Europe, Unity Begins to Fracture

NATO and the European Union have been surprisingly united so far in supporting Ukraine, both with painful economic sanctions aimed at Russia and in supplying an increasing quantity of weapons to Ukraine, though not jet fighters or advanced tanks.

But that unity is under strain. Hungary, which has supported five earlier sanctions packages, has balked at an embargo on Russian oil, on which it depends. And the Europeans are not even trying, at least for now, to cut off their imports of Russian gas.

The divisions are visible in war aims, too.

Leaders in central and eastern Europe, with its long experience of Soviet domination, have strong views about defeating Russia — even rejecting the idea of speaking to Mr. Putin. Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, and Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, speak of him as a war criminal, as Mr. Biden did.

“All these events should wake us from our geopolitical slumber and cause us to cast off our delusions, our old delusions, but is that enough?” Mr. Morawiecki said last week. “I hear there are attempts to allow Putin to somehow save face in the international arena. But how can you save something that has been utterly disfigured?” he asked.

But France, Italy and Germany, the biggest and richest countries of the bloc, are anxious about a long war or one that ends frozen in a stalemate, and nervous of the possible damage to their own economies.

Those countries also think of Russia as an inescapable neighbor that cannot be isolated forever. Following his re-election, Emmanuel Macron of France began hedging his bets, declaring that a future peace in Eastern Europe must not include an unnecessary humiliation of Russia, and could include territorial concessions to Moscow.

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi called this month for a cease-fire in Ukraine “as soon as possible” to enable a negotiated end to the war. Mr. Draghi, who has taken a hard line against Russia in traditionally Moscow-friendly Italy, said economic pressure was important “because we have to bring Moscow to the negotiating table.”
Zelensky’s Choice: Territorial Integrity or Grinding War

Mr. Zelensky has been careful not to expand his aims toward a larger degradation of Mr. Putin’s regime. He has said repeatedly that he wants the Russians pushed back to where they were on Feb. 23, before the large-scale invasion started.

Only then, he has said, would Ukraine be prepared to negotiate seriously again with Russia about a cease-fire and a settlement. He said again this week that the war will have to end with a diplomatic solution, not a sweeping military victory.

But even those aims are considered by some European officials and military experts to be ambitious. To get there, Ukraine would have to take back Kherson and the ravaged city of Mariupol. It would have to push Russia out of its land bridge to Crimea and stop Russia from annexing large parts of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Many experts fear that is beyond Ukraine’s capability.

While Ukraine did remarkably well in the first phase of the war, Donbas is very different. To go on the offensive normally requires a manpower advantage of 3 to 1, weaponry aside, which Ukraine does not now possess. The Russians are making slow but incremental gains, if at a high cost in casualties. (While Washington and London are happy to provide estimates of Russian casualties, sometimes rather high, according to some military experts, they say little about Ukrainian casualties. Ukraine is treating those figures as state secrets.)

You do realize that there is more than military victory here ? And that war is far from over, Ukrainians seems determined to fight for a very long time, so it seems that Russia is going for a Pyrrhic victory which does not seem like a victory at all.

Plus, everyone has seen the "mighty" russian army in action, and Russian has lost a lot of standing on that front.

[Shalcker]

And then of course there is "Gas For Roubles"... on which European Commission already caved.

As well as Sixth Sanctions Package failing to get traction so far because EU is not prepared to pay real cost of oil embargo (i've seen mentions that Hungary estimates their needs in case of embargo to be worth around 14 billion Euro and they are only being offered 2 billion).

- - - Updated - - -

You do realize that there is more than military victory here ? And that war is far from over, Ukrainians seems determined to fight for a very long time, so it seems that Russia is going for a Pyrrhic victory which does not seem like a victory at all.

If they would be "determined" they wouldn't need to shuffle newest recruits from Western Ukraine with no training to front lines as in WaPo article; they would take their time to train them.

AzovStal had more people surrendering then amount of forces pinning them down there.

Donbass was entrenched by Ukrainians for years; rest of the country is a lot less well-defended.

Current Russian gains threaten to encircle/cut supply lines for tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops.

Plus, everyone has seen the "mighty" russian army in action, and Russian has lost a lot of standing on that front.

A win is still a win in the end.

Western humiliation in this conflict can have profound consequences to the world at large.

[Specialka]

And then of course there is "Gas For Roubles"... on which European Commission already caved.

As well as Sixth Sanctions Package failing to get traction so far because EU is not prepared to pay real cost of oil embargo (i've seen mentions that Hungary estimates their needs in case of embargo to be worth around 14 billion Euro and they are only being offered 2 billion).

- - - Updated - - -

If they would be "determined" they wouldn't need to shuffle newest recruits from Western Ukraine with no training to front lines as in WaPo article; they would take their time to train them.

AzovStal had more people surrendering then amount of forces pinning them down there.

Donbass was entrenched by Ukrainians for years; rest of the country is a lot less well-defended.

Current Russian gains threaten to encircle/cut supply lines for tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops.

A win is still a win in the end.

Western humiliation in this conflict can have profound consequences to the world at large.

You do realize that this is Russia getting humiliated right ? How can you not understand that fact ? Russia has claim for years to have an army that only a superpower can, has claimed to have top tier equipment (S400 for instance). And it does not hold up to that claim. The S400 is a joke, Russian army lacks discipline, morals, etc...

And on top of that, you threaten poor countries by cutting their food supplies.

How is that a win ?

[KrayZ33]

AzovStal had more people surrendering then amount of forces pinning them down there.

Donbass was entrenched by Ukrainians for years; rest of the country is a lot less well-defended.

Where do you even get this information from? Aren't you just a shill?
I tried to google how many soldiers were pinned down by Ukraine's last stand at AzovStal and all I could find hints that it is exactly the opposite to what you are saying.
I mean, there is no reason to assume that "the rest of the country is a lot less well-defended" because that's not how the defensive lines work and there are always multiple layers and fall back points - and in this war, the ones further inland actually have the heavy weapons because they simply can't send them forward. Unless you are talking about like ~20km away from it?
And AzovStal pinned down basically half the Russian army (not actually half, but in terms of "a big part of it) and enabled Ukraine to regain most of the territory in other areas due to that... so.. just where are you getting this very specific intel. Or are you just refering to like the last few days of their resistance?

[Huehuecoyotl]

Western humiliation in this conflict can have profound consequences to the world at large.

Fuck me, only a Russian could look at the giant neverending stream of limp-dicked stupidity carried out by the Russian "army" in Ukraine and see that as "humiliation" for the West.

[Shalcker]

You do realize that this is Russia getting humiliated right ? How can you not understand that fact ? Russia has claim for years to have an army that only a superpower can, has claimed to have top tier equipment (S400 for instance). And it does not hold up to that claim. The S400 is a joke, Russian army lacks discipline, morals, etc...

Maybe if you would look at articles with less hopium you would see it differently.

All that matters in war is that your forces are enough to crush your opposition. And so far Ukraine doesn't stand a chance even with Western support.

For example, 18 US howitizers are drop in the bucket of thousands of artillery pieces Ukraine already uses; their fire rate never seems to reach advertised 8 rounds per minute, only getting about 4, down to 2 with prolonged shelling.

Western hand-held launchers are plagued by battery problems - large part arrives discharged and cannot be charged at all.

And on top of that, you threaten poor countries by cutting their food supplies.

Plenty of other countries also dropped exports due to lackluster harvests/weather conditions, like India.

If anything threatens your food security it is natural to make sure your needs are met first before sending anything abroad.

[Gigantique]

Fuck me, only a Russian could look at the giant neverending stream of limp-dicked stupidity carried out by the Russian "army" in Ukraine and see that as "humiliation" for the West.

No but you see it's very humiliating for the West to decimate the Grand Russian Armed Forces simply by handing some of its toys to the sovereign nation they're invading without even stepping foot directly in the conflict.

Imagine the shame of being so dominant you don't even need to actively participate to win, lolololol did you overkill much *the West* ?

/s just to be safe (:

[Specialka]

Maybe if you would look at articles with less hopium you would see it differently.

All that matters in war is that your forces are enough to crush your opposition. And so far Ukraine doesn't stand a chance even with Western support.

For example, 18 US howitizers are drop in the bucket of thousands of artillery pieces Ukraine already uses; their fire rate never seems to reach advertised 8 rounds per minute, only getting about 4, down to 2 with prolonged shelling.

Western hand-held launchers are plagued by battery problems - large part arrives discharged and cannot be charged at all.

Plenty of other countries also dropped exports due to lackluster harvests/weather conditions, like India.

If anything threatens your food security it is natural to make sure your needs are met first before sending anything abroad.

But food supplies are cut due to the war which responsability is Russia's. And you dare ask for removal of sanctions if we want you to help. I wonder how low Russia can go on the ethic scale.

And I also think you should read less propaganda articles. I would not call that a win when everyone has seen how weak you are on the field.

My guess is that Putin (and Russia) is just jealous that the EU and the US won't see the Russia as the biggest opponent now that it is China.

[KrayZ33]

No but you see it's very humiliating for the West to decimate the Grand Russian Armed Forces simply by handing some of its toys to the sovereign nation they're invading without even stepping foot directly in the conflict.

Imagine the shame of being so dominant you don't even need to actively participate to win, lolololol did you overkill much *the West* ?

/s just to be safe (:

Yeah.. it's really weird to view this as the "west" being humiliated. I mean... the west is basically not even part of the conflict.
It's the only reason why the Russian army wasn't completely crushed from day one onwards, considering that they mostly succeeded in their campaign due to air superiority.

For the world at large, it's good that the west isn't "directly" involved (most likely), for Ukraine and the people/consumer in general it sucks.

But even if Russia would suddenly win this conflict in the next 3 days, or would've won in the first 3 days of the conflict/war, I have no idea why the west should, would or can be seen as being "humiliated". Even if the worst comes to be, the west would simply start buying oil and gas from the "petrol station of the world (that is also happens to be defended by nukes)". It's not like Russia would gain anything they didn't have (and now lost) already and if Russia would go into direct conflict with the west, we all know now how it would end for them.

[Shrouded]

The Guardian: Moscow says West has declared ‘total war’ on Russia

Alright, the title is Lavrov business as usual, blah blah "the West" blah blah "total war". But look at this quote:

The West has declared war on us, on the whole Russian world. The culture of cancelling Russia and everything connected with our country is already reaching the point of absurdity

Russia is calling western support of Ukraine "cancel culture". Really. I feel like I'm living in a parody timeline.

[Shalcker]

But food supplies are cut due to the war which responsability is Russia's.

That isn't how world sees it outside of Western sphere; they are quite aware of Western hypocrisy, like West asking them to drop Russian energy purchases while still buying them yourself.

And you dare ask for removal of sanctions if we want you to help. I wonder how low Russia can go on the ethic scale.

If you dare to impose them then Russia certainly can dare you to remove them.

And I also think you should read less propaganda articles. I would not call that a win when everyone has seen how weak you are on the field.

Russia is making steady progress so far on Popasnaya, Krasniy Liman, and Severodonetsk.

What did Ukraine gain lately?

Does it matter to anyone if they are defeated by strong or weak military if they still get defeated?

[Specialka]

That isn't how world sees it outside of Western sphere; they are quite aware of Western hypocrisy, like West asking them to drop Russian energy purchases while still buying them yourself.

If you dare to impose them then Russia certainly can dare you to remove them.

Russia is making steady progress so far on Popasnaya, Krasniy Liman, and Severodonetsk.

What did Ukraine gain lately?

Does it matter to anyone if they are defeated by strong or weak military if they still get defeated?

Ukraine is not a superpower as Russia claims to be one. If Russia was that superpower, they would have steamroll Ukraine in 3 days as it was the initial plan. And the world can also see that Russia is not a partner to whom you can trust.

[Twdft]

The Guardian: Moscow says West has declared ‘total war’ on Russia

At what point does "the west" go like 'fuck it they already think we declared total war let's support Ukraine with actual troops'? Also, at what point are ruSSian war crimes big enough to support Ukraine with actual troops? It's almost as if ruSSia wants to be invaded itself.

[Dontrike]

Fuck me, only a Russian could look at the giant neverending stream of limp-dicked stupidity carried out by the Russian "army" in Ukraine and see that as "humiliation" for the West.

Don't you know? Losing about 25% of your military strength in a 3 day war that's been going for 3 months as you end up 3rd after the "Nazi" enemy and their farmers is totally humiliating for the other side.

[Shalcker]

Ukraine is not a superpower as Russia claims to be one. If Russia was that superpower, they would have steamroll Ukraine in 3 days as it was the initial plan. And the world can also see that Russia is not a partner to whom you can trust.

Show me where Russia declared plan to steamroll Ukraine in 3 days.

Even US wouldn't be able to roll over Ukraine in three days without Ukrainians surrendering; Iraq took much longer, and it was smaller country.

- - - Updated - - -

At what point does "the west" go like 'fuck it they already think we declared total war let's support Ukraine with actual troops'? Also, at what point are ruSSian war crimes big enough to support Ukraine with actual troops? It's almost as if ruSSia wants to be invaded itself.

So far it seems to be "maybe if Russia uses chemical weapons/nukes".

...which is obviously very unlikely as chemical weapons wouldn't provide any advantages you couldn't get with non-banned thermobaric munitions.

[Iphie]

At what point does "the west" go like 'fuck it they already think we declared total war let's support Ukraine with actual troops'? Also, at what point are ruSSian war crimes big enough to support Ukraine with actual troops?

Not gonna happen.

It's almost as if ruSSia wants to be invaded itself.

You jest, but it's not far fetched as russia can then say: See! we were right!

[Specialka]

Show me where Russia declared plan to steamroll Ukraine in 3 days.

Even US wouldn't be able to roll over Ukraine in three days without Ukrainians surrendering; Iraq took much longer, and it was smaller country.

- - - Updated - - -

So far it seems to be "maybe if Russia uses chemical weapons/nukes".

...which is obviously very unlikely as chemical weapons wouldn't provide any advantages you couldn't get with non-banned thermobaric munitions.

Wait, do you actually think than any country would disclose what their plans are ? Are you that stupid ? By that metrics, the US never sent anyone on the moon since they could have fake it !

Russia spent tons of mens and equipment (including elite troops like paratroopers) into the meat grinder for nothing ? No, they tried to rush Kiev to get Zelensky, depose him, and install a puppet. irak tooks 3 weeks in and all and it was 10000 km away form the US.

[Corvus]

The Guardian: Moscow says West has declared ‘total war’ on Russia

Alright, the title is Lavrov business as usual, blah blah "the West" blah blah "total war". But look at this quote:



Russia is calling western support of Ukraine "cancel culture". Really. I feel like I'm living in a parody timeline.

That's not even the dumbest thing the Russians have said today. Apparently the UK is on the verge of cannibalism.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https://www....-b2088534.html

[Lahis]

You do realize that there is more than military victory here ? And that war is far from over, Ukrainians seems determined to fight for a very long time, so it seems that Russia is going for a Pyrrhic victory which does not seem like a victory at all.

Plus, everyone has seen the "mighty" russian army in action, and Russian has lost a lot of standing on that front.

Ukrainians have no other option than to fight. If they quit Russia will destroy them all. Putin's objective from the start has been to erase Ukrainians nation and people from the map and history.