Russian invasion of Ukraine

[ParanoiD84]

Russians sure like to drive isolated vehicles for the other side to easily blow up, lots of clips on that like some Americans and uk volontiers having a field day over there picking them off.

[Pann]

Which facts aren't going Russian way?
What are you drinking to come to your conclusions?

Didn't Popasnaya fall to Russians? Didn't Liman? Didn't AzovStal fall and surrendered? Didn't Ukrainians try to retake Snake Island and fail?

How exactly is Russian defeat going to look like if Russia isn't pushed back and just slowly integrates captured territories?

I don't think that anyone would expect you to show the bravery and courage of your fellow countrymen and women who have protested against Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine but here you are cheerleading the murder, rape and abduction of innocent Ukrainians, the destruction of their cities and homes and theft of their property!

Quite why you are allowed back, time after time, to spout this vile rhetoric is beyond me.

[Shalcker]

And while some western countries are suffering short term annoyances they pale compared to the long term damage to Russia. I mean unless you're an absolutely idiot even a blatant propagandist like yourself has to see the truly massive impact being kicked off SWIFT would have on any economy. Not to mention the fact that you've basically accelerated by decades the West's movement away from Russian gas. These are all objective facts/things that happened that even someone as blind to you can't deny that they at least happened even if you'll work so hard for your Turnips to convince us otherwise. So while the west has some short term headaches Russia's going to have an economic foot amputated long term. Foreign cash reserves and ability to cheaply and quickly conducts international trade? Gone. Ability to sell gas in the short tern with a permanent removal of most if not all demand? Already in progress. Good job! Russia winning!

If we're talking "long-term" then West absolutely obliterated trust in their financial system and rule of law, and created reason for the whole world to start de-dollarizing - driving one of main Western pillars down. See Saudis talking with China to sell oil in yuan - they don't want to bet on next US administration not seizing all their assets in a same way West did with Russia.

And just like West "speeds up transition from Russian energy", so does Russia "speeds up transition from European consumers". The writing was always on the wall, and plans were already being made. Meanwhile every step EU makes to "speed up transition" drives up energy prices and increases Russian profits to pay for Russian re-alignment while hurting Western consumers.

And guess what... at the moment there simply isn't enough gas and oil produced in the world to replace Russia, as producers keep telling Europeans trying to gets them as replacement. Not when you openly shunned any new production because they didn't align with "climate change/green agenda" with long-term underinvestment into new production catching up to post-covid economic recovery.

Just "switching whole Europe to LNG" would take half of world's entire LNG production - and requires years of building up costly alternative supporting infrastructure, ships, facilities, interconnectors...

Western pain will be with you for years to come; price increases with increased LNG costs will become permanent, competitiveness of European industries will plummet while also making you dependent on Middle Eastern despots - who clearly try to wring every bit out of you for the privilege.

[Elegiac]

If we're talking "long-term" then West absolutely obliterated trust in their financial system and rule of law, and created reason for the whole world to start de-dollarizing

It's already been explained to you why this is a nonsense talking point in that the justification for the sanctions is only applicable to Russia since India, China, Saudi Arabia, etc. are not in the business of starting genocidal wars of conquest - something which is understood and accepted as evidenced by the way no one besides your puppet states sided with you in the UN.

See Saudis talking with China to sell oil in yuan

Something which has nothing to do with Russian sanctions and isn't actually a threat to the dollar's status as a reserve currency anyway.

Western pain will be with you for years to come; price increases with increased LNG costs will become permanent, competitiveness of European industries will plummet while also making you dependent on Middle Eastern despots - who clearly try to wring every bit out of you for the privilege.

Or, as is more likely the case, the global economy will adjust around Russia's absence barring India and China treating it as an exploitable captive market while decarbonization continues to erode dependence on fossil fuels.

[Twdft]

So? Most of those costs were already paid upfront when missiles and ammunition were produced - produced to be used in appropriate situation, not just to look pretty in stockpiles.

And this war of attrition so far favors Russia as Ukraine makes no gains and only mounts losses.

How much are you spending to prop up Ukraine? 5-7 billions per month? How much does supporting millions of refugees costs?

For how long do you think you can realistically keep that up?

To be honest for as long as it takes for Ukraine to kick you genocidal ruSSians out of the country. For the simple reason that if they don't the next war will include NATO anyway. Because you genocidal aSSholes will not stop with Ukraine if you win. We're still at the stage where we throw money at the problem, and that's fine with me. I have not complained about rising prices etc once.

[Shalcker]

It's already been explained to you why this is a nonsense talking point in that the justification for the sanctions is only applicable to Russia since India, China, Saudi Arabia, etc. are not in the business of starting genocidal wars of conquest - something which is understood and accepted as evidenced by the way no one besides your puppet states sided with you in the UN.

There are constant talks about secondary sanctions that would hit those who still deal with Russia outside of West. Saudis are currently engaged in a lot bloodier war then Ukraine with Yemen, China is accused of genocide of Uighurs, and India gets flak in Western media for their muslim treatment.

So your argument seems to be blind to international reality.

Or, as is more likely the case, the global economy will adjust around Russia's absence barring India and China treating it as an exploitable captive market while decarbonization continues to erode dependence on fossil fuels.

"Adjusting" means giving India and China permanent leg-up on energy over Western countries.

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To be honest for as long as it takes for Ukraine to kick you genocidal ruSSians out of the country. For the simple reason that if they don't the next war will include NATO anyway. Because you genocidal aSSholes will not stop with Ukraine if you win. We're still at the stage where we throw money at the problem, and that's fine with me. I have not complained about rising prices etc once.

"Not complaining" doesn't save you from their effects, nor does it make your win more likely.

Higher Western prices only make Russia extra profits; West would do more damage to Russia if you would "do nothing" and let Russia spend international reserves to prop Russian markets while Western companies would frantically sell everything.

Instead West all-in - and missed the shot.

Maybe you should think before you act... if you do everything and still fail - against weak and unimportant Russia, what do you think the world will think about your power?

...probably that it is already long past it's prime, and was carried by a lot of hot air.

[Elegiac]

There are constant talks about secondary sanctions that would hit those who still deal with Russia outside of West. Saudis are currently engaged in a lot bloodier war then Ukraine with Yemen, China is accused of genocide of Uighurs, and India gets flak in Western media for their muslim treatment.

And again, it has already been explained to you why these instances are not comparable under the precedents of international law with what Russia is doing in Ukraine and everyone besides you understands that they are not in danger of the same level of reprisal from the international community, making "the West is losing credibility" a stupid copium talking point.

You keep trying to bring it up every time you aren't banned, and it remains as stupid now as it has been in every previous instance.

"Adjusting" means giving India and China permanent leg-up on energy over Western countries.

Something which would only be the case if fossil fuels weren't understood to be a transitional resource in a continual state of decline as decarbonization continues to gather steam.

But I guess when you live in a tinpot autocracy with no economic prospects besides fossil fuel exports trying to encourage the belief that alternative energy sources aren't viable or that climate change is a myth is par for the course. Lol.

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Higher Western prices only make Russia extra profits; West would do more damage to Russia if you would "do nothing" and let Russia spend international reserves to prop Russian markets while Western companies would frantically sell everything.

If the sanctions aren't having the desired effect you wouldn't be so vehemently arguing that they aren't doing anything, habibi.

[Iphie]

Meanwhile:

Ukraine needs to face reality and talk to Putin, Zelenskiy says

russia feels that Ukraine is being very unclear, but russia has been flip-flopping as well.

and

Ukraine demands Germany cut or halt Nord Stream 1 gas flows

I don't know how I feel about this. While Ukraine has a point the demands are starting to grate. ( I still want Ukraine to win, obviously.)

[Shalcker]

And again, it has already been explained to you why these instances are not comparable under the precedents of international law with what Russia is doing in Ukraine and everyone besides you understands that they are not in danger of the same level of reprisal from the international community, making "the West is losing credibility" a stupid copium talking point.

They are clearly in danger given how ad-hoc were Western actions against Russia.

And your disagreement bears no weight to those who make decisions in those countries.

China tells US it will not be scared off by sanctions over Taiwan

The United States will face "unimaginable consequences" if it plays the Taiwan card and Beijing will not be intimidated by sanctions like those on Russia, a Chinese foreign vice-minister has said.

...
In response to American warnings that China would face similar sanctions to those placed on Russia if it attacked Taiwan, Le said "China must be unified, and will be unified", and sanctions and isolation "could absolutely not scare China".

"What kind of storms haven't we weathered in the more than 70 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China?" he said, adding that in the past few years the US had already taken coercive measures - such as tariffs, reducing cooperation, arresting people on espionage charges - but was not able to break China.

"Not only has China not collapsed, but we are still thriving with each passing day. What else do we have to fear?"


...and Biden recently said US will still defend Taiwan against China in a military way.
...with White House later "clarifying" it to be arms shipments and the like as in Ukraine rather then direct involvement.

You are openly setting up Taiwan for exact same scenario as Ukraine, and Chinese make notes.

Something which would only be the case if fossil fuels weren't understood to be a transitional resource in a continual state of decline as decarbonization continues to gather steam.

Sure, transitional in energy generation until somewhere around 2050; still to be used in chemical and fertilizer industries past that point.

You cannot build everything from energy alone.

[Levelfive]

This is interesting: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ght-in-ukraine

"Court testimonies given by members of the Rosgvardia unit mentioned in Afanasyev’s reporting confirm earlier reports that 11 Rosgvardia from Khakassia refused to fight.

The testimonies also give weight to suggestions that the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine was intended initially as a blitzkrieg attack on Kyiv with the aim of capturing the capital.

In one testimony, a Roskgvardia soldier told the court that his commander instructed his unit three days prior to the invasion that they would be sent to Ukraine to “patrol the streets and intersections of Kyiv”.

“The commander explained that all employees of the national guard and the Russian armed forces were assigned specific tasks during the special operation in Ukraine. The task of our detachment and for all the other detachments that were stationed with us was to guard the streets and intersections of Kyiv,” said the testimony, seen by the Guardian."

[Elegiac]

They are clearly in danger given how ad-hoc were Western actions against Russia.

Except... they aren't ad hoc, sanctions as an alternative to direct military intervention have been a longstanding feature of international law since 1945 at the latest.

Which, again, is understood by the international community as evidenced by the conspicuous lack of endorsement of Russia's actions by anyone except your shills. One would think if they were planning similar courses of action to Russia they'd be more inclined to support its efforts in Ukraine as legitimate.

Instead it's been a mixture of either radio silence or outright condemnation. Funny that.

You are openly setting up Taiwan for exact same scenario as Ukraine, and Chinese make notes.

Not sure what you think you're accomplishing by repeating the same shit every time you aren't banned, but no; China has no plans to invade Taiwan nor do they have the means to do so if they were so inclined. It's a stupid talking point by people obsessed with prophesying World War III.

Sure, transitional in energy generation until somewhere around 2050; still to be used in chemical and fertilizer industries past that point.

For which Western domestic production is sufficient once the rest of its energy needs are being met by alternative sources. You aren't good at this.

[Gaidax]

While Ukraine has a point the demands are starting to grate. ( I still want Ukraine to win, obviously.)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-ukraine-began

That's pretty vexing too for Ukrainians, don't you think?

[Iphie]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-ukraine-began

That's pretty vexing too for Ukrainians, don't you think?

Oh, I'm quite aware of the reason, I'm just noting that it's starting to grate me. Which I fully acknowledge isn't a good thing for obvious reasons.

[KrayZ33]

Oh, I'm quite aware of the reason, I'm just noting that it's starting to grate me. Which I fully acknowledge isn't a good thing for obvious reasons.

Meh, what can they do. They kinda have to ask for this.

I just don't know if I would use the word "demand" here and I think these articles are always putting Ukraine in a bad light whenever they use that word.
Not sure if Ukraine is in any position to "demand" anything. But they certainly can "ask" or "request".

"demand" sounds hostile, doesn't it? And I have no idea why the press uses the word... I mean, they themselves called it an "appeal".

I personally believe the word used is the reason why it feels like that to you.

[Shalcker]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-ukraine-began

That's pretty vexing too for Ukrainians, don't you think?

They are free to block their part of gas network at any point to make a difference.

They have a lot of agency there; they just choose not to use it.

...for obvious reasons. Not too dissimilar to German reasons.

[Gabriel]

Meanwhile:

Ukraine needs to face reality and talk to Putin, Zelenskiy says

russia feels that Ukraine is being very unclear, but russia has been flip-flopping as well.

and

Ukraine demands Germany cut or halt Nord Stream 1 gas flows

I don't know how I feel about this. While Ukraine has a point the demands are starting to grate. ( I still want Ukraine to win, obviously.)

I still say some alphabet boys should Natural Causes some gas pipelines to help EU kick the habit.

[Shalcker]

Which, again, is understood by the international community as evidenced by the conspicuous lack of endorsement of Russia's actions by anyone except your shills. One would think if they were planning similar courses of action to Russia they'd be more inclined to support its efforts in Ukraine as legitimate.

Show me the support of Western actions by anyone except Western shills.

You would expect a lot more countries to join in on sanctions if they would share your reasoning.

Not sure what you think you're accomplishing by repeating the same shit every time you aren't banned, but no; China has no plans to invade Taiwan nor do they have the means to do so if they were so inclined. It's a stupid talking point by people obsessed with prophesying World War III.

China certainly has plans for Taiwan, and might be forced to enact military solution if West will go with similar course for Taiwan as West did with Ukraine.

Obviously everyone would prefer West to f*** off and for China to deal with their wayward province as they see fit; but so far there is little indication of West being willing to do it.

For which Western domestic production is sufficient once the rest of its energy needs are being met by alternative sources. You aren't good at this.

Oh, really? Could you show me the numbers?

[Twdft]

China certainly has plans for Taiwan, and might be forced to enact military solution if West will go with similar course for Taiwan as West did with Ukraine.

"Look what you made me do" - every wife beater ever.

You are disgusting.

[zorkuus]

Obviously everyone would prefer West to f*** off and for China to deal with their wayward province as they see fit; but so far there is little indication of West being willing to do it.

The west is not fucking off because Taiwan is an independent country you sick shit.

[ABEEnr2]

Which facts aren't going Russian way?
What are you drinking to come to your conclusions?

Didn't Popasnaya fall to Russians? Didn't Liman? Didn't AzovStal fall and surrendered? Didn't Ukrainians try to retake Snake Island and fail?

How exactly is Russian defeat going to look like if Russia isn't pushed back and just slowly integrates captured territories?

Your 3 days wars have been going on for 90+ days. Also, You couldn't take Kyiv, it took them like 90 days for Azovstal to surrender but not all of them did surrender. Your "Air superiority" is not really superior since they can't fly above like 20-40 meters above the ground. Your running out of missiles. You are using a 60s tanks because you are running out of tanks. You have 20 times more army and heavy weapons in Donbas and u still can't take it. Just stop, at this point if u keep going Putin will send u on the frontline in Ukraine.

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Show me the support of Western actions by anyone except Western shills.

You would expect a lot more countries to join in on sanctions if they would share your reasoning.

China certainly has plans for Taiwan, and might be forced to enact military solution if West will go with similar course for Taiwan as West did with Ukraine.

Obviously everyone would prefer West to f*** off and for China to deal with their wayward province as they see fit; but so far there is little indication of West being willing to do it.

Oh, really? Could you show me the numbers?

You saw how it went for Russia in Ukraine, imagine china but they cant send tanks only ships. Also, Taiwan has been preparing for ages, it's a stronghold at this point.