Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Specialka]

Russia literally can't handle a country the third of its size. The aid Ukraine is getting is like 1/10th of what would count as pocket change of the agregate military spending capacity of NATO, which still by all intents and purposes remains a fully peace time economy.

If Western countries really leaned into this there would be no comparison worth discussing.

So why in the gods green earth would anyone willingly side with Russia in any meaningful way? I mean countries like Belarus don't have a choice, yet they still don't have troops in the fight, but even countries that are well within the Russian sphere of influence refuse to side with Russia on this, like Kazakhstan.

Do you legit think, there's any scenario, ever, anywhere, where India would go -Yeah! Let's go to war with the US and EU.....for Russia....

By siding, I do not mean going to war for or with them but rather, not sanctioning and still buying stuff from them, etc...

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1) They're both not even 3 billion, but what does a billion more matter, when you're trying to prove something with nothing to back it up.

2) 4/5 of the worlds population support the Ukraine and the West, source? My feelings on the matter. besides China and India are just 1 billion people (love making up numbers to support my feelings)

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Who says they'd have to replace it? Russia does not have some magic remote to Russian made equipment, which enables them to disable it.

There are several countries, including India, who would rather not be pulled into this conflict.

https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/04/1115782

Because if they "sanction" Russia, they will lose access to maintenance and repair parts for those equipment.

[Crispin]

By siding, I do not mean going to war for or with them but rather, not sanctioning and still buying stuff from them, etc...

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Because if they "sanction" Russia, they will lose access to maintenance and repair parts for those equipment.

What makes you think that Russia have a crew of workers, traveling the globe to perform service on sold equipment? Just to clarify, I have no idea if they do, but you seem to do.

In the end, India is playing the neutral game

[Masark]

Because if they "sanction" Russia, they will lose access to maintenance and repair parts for those equipment.

They probably aren't going to be getting any of those anyway, given that Russia doesn't appear to have enough of those for their own needs, much having a surplus to sell.

[Mihalik]

By siding, I do not mean going to war for or with them but rather, not sanctioning and still buying stuff from them, etc...

At this moment the pressure for obeying sanctions on countries like India and China is minimal to non existent.

Still most Chinese financial and tech companies are voluntarily obeying the sanction rules.

Same for the largest Indian industrial groups like Tata.

For them it's just not worth the risk to annoy their western partners, customers, lenders, regulators etc, even tho there are no explicit demands asking them to do anything.

If the Western powers (including Japan, Korea etc) get collectively annoyed enough to go -Fuck it! Full total embargo with punishments for third parties who don't abide by the embargo - Do you think India or China would risk dealing with the fallout from that and say -We just love the Russians and their shitty outdated hardware so much that we are willing to risk total economic meltdown for them?

There are 2 reasons why we aren't demanding India/China to abide by the sanctions.

1. Is just being respectful of their sovereignty. It's better to get them onboard passively perhaps even quitely than by offending them and making a fuss.

2. It doesn't make a big enough difference for us to care. Neither China nor India can replace EU trade for Russia. And here comes the kicker...they don't really seem that keen to make an effort either. Like they won't even throw the Russians a bone.

[PhaelixWW]

1) They're both not even 3 billion, but what does a billion more matter, when you're trying to prove something with nothing to back it up.

2) 4/5 of the worlds population support the Ukraine and the West, source? My feelings on the matter. besides China and India are just 1 billion people (love making up numbers to support my feelings)

This is just petty, stupid, bad math.

6 of the 9 most populous countries in the world chose not to censure Russia. The 40 countries that voted "no" or abstained account for 4.17b people, which is more than half of the 7.9b people in the world and therefore also certainly more than the 3.28b people in the 135 countries that voted "yes".

I'm not sure why you feel like making up numbers somehow "wins" in a comeback to what amounts to a throwaway comment.

[Crispin]

This is just petty, stupid, bad math.

6 of the 9 most populous countries in the world chose not to censure Russia. The 40 countries that voted "no" or abstained account for 4.17b people, which is more than half of the 7.9b people in the world and therefore also certainly more than the 3.28b people in the 135 countries that voted "yes".

I'm not sure why you feel like making up numbers somehow "wins" in a comeback to what amounts to a throwaway comment.

It's not even math, trying to point out to him, that numbers taken out of the arse, is not usable in any argument. I guess that went over your head.

[Gorsameth]

Because if they "sanction" Russia, they will lose access to maintenance and repair parts for those equipment.

As mentioned, Russia doesn't even have parts to preait things themselves.

And secondly after seeing their Russian bought equipment in action against Western equipment I would not be surprised if more and more in the military start questioning the wisdom of buying more Russian equipment in the future.

[Specialka]

As mentioned, Russia doesn't even have parts to preait things themselves.

And secondly after seeing their Russian bought equipment in action against Western equipment I would not be surprised if more and more in the military start questioning the wisdom of buying more Russian equipment in the future.

The war in Ukraine is not a good advertisement for russian equipment, that is for sure.

But India still has a lot of russian equipment, and they can't switch it overnight.

[Yunru]

Wait a second:


Russa had a young nazi training program for 4 years now.

[PhaelixWW]

It's not even math, trying to point out to him, that numbers taken out of the arse, is not usable in any argument. I guess that went over your head.

Nope. I got exactly what you were saying. You were just playing with a faulty premise when you decided to embarrass yourself. Clearly the only numbers being "taken out of the arse" are yours, because what he said was not false. China and India together are 2.8 billion, which is certainly close enough to the low end of his range of 3 billion to not warrant the shitty response you made. Especially considering the fact that, as pointed out, the remaining countries bring it over 4 billion.

So the other poster was at least close with China + India, and made the point with the other countries added in. You, on the other hand, just made up some numbers in order to combat a point that really didn't need fighting.

I mean, in what world is "I think you're making up numbers, so I'm going to pointlessly make up numbers even worse than you!" in any way close to an adult response? Grow up.

[Breccia]

The British are estimating that Russia has lost one third of the combat ground forces it initially assembled for the invasion.

Son of a сука, that's bad. Holy shit.

Related:

1) McDonalds announced they were fleeing Russia entirely and their stock barely even flinched. They're selling off their stake after 32 years.

2) Russia is intentionally blocking humanitarian aid, possibly because this is genocide, possibly because Putin sent them into a year-long war with one week of food, and they don't want to starve to death.

3) This happened:


"Mr. McConnell, why are you wearing a pink tie?"
"Well it used to be red, but I washed it with my robe."
"Uh...look! A distraction!"
Alternate caption:
"You should look over there, where the sun isn't."
"Yeah I know...but I'm a Trump supporter."

4) India announced a wheat export ban, as they're already losing a lot of their crop to a heat wave. This, combined with Russia fucking with the market already, spiked prices. This is a massive windfall to the US ag market.

5) The EU is preparing another round of sanctions.

6) Basically every news source says Sweden will vote to join NATO soon, maybe even today. Russia shakes its fist angrily.

Problems are being created for no reason at all. We shall react accordingly.

-- Putin, the reason Sweden and Finland joined NATO, and man unable to react

6) NATO openly says Ukraine can win this war.

"That sounds like projection. Surely NATO did not use those exact words."

NATO’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Sunday that “Ukraine can win this war” following an informal meeting of the group.

For the record, I have multiple times said they wouldn't...but could they? That's up to Russia. Russia, as we've seen, is throwing everything from repurposed dishwashers to repurposed sailors at the problem, which could be for a variety of reasons, but I believe it's because Putin sees a full-scale mobilization against a smaller country as a weakness. Remember when the National Guard was sent to Iraq and Afghanistan so we wouldn't have to draft? A scumsucking cockbrain move by W who used the National Guard to dodge Vietnam? Putin's doing that, basically searching under the sofa cushions for loose change rather than hit the ATM. The very week Russia decides to go all-in, actually spending the time, effort, and resources of someone who wants to fight and win a war, Ukraine is finished.

Now, I'm sure some of you will say Russia can't do that, that their corrupt military is plagued with problems from incompetent officers to low-morale troops to equipment that won't work. I hope you're right, but I also think Russia just has the sheer weight of numbers to end this if they really wanted to. So far, Putin hasn't shown he really wants to win. A Heroic raid-geared tank can solo a Heroic dungeon, but not if they pull the entire thing at once, including all 3-5 bosses...well maybe a DK, but that's it. Point is, Russia's not going full force, and it's either because they can't or they don't want to. I think it's the second. I'm okay with never finding out.

Point is, things have changed to the point that we are no longer talking about how long Ukraine survives, but legitimately non-sarcastically if Ukraine can actually push Russia out. People have posted scattered reports of counter-offenses up to Russia's border. And "that could be anyone's building fire!" has come up a lot. Ukraine has done one amazing job, stopping what we until recently thought was a superpower, and while I still don't see them winning, I would no longer put money on it.

[Iphie]

For the record, I have multiple times said they wouldn't...but could they? That's up to Russia. Russia, as we've seen, is throwing everything from repurposed dishwashers to repurposed sailors at the problem, which could be for a variety of reasons, but I believe it's because Putin sees a full-scale mobilization against a smaller country as a weakness. Remember when the National Guard was sent to Iraq and Afghanistan so we wouldn't have to draft? A scumsucking cockbrain move by W who used the National Guard to dodge Vietnam? Putin's doing that, basically searching under the sofa cushions for loose change rather than hit the ATM. The very week Russia decides to go all-in, actually spending the time, effort, and resources of someone who wants to fight and win a war, Ukraine is finished.

Now, I'm sure some of you will say Russia can't do that, that their corrupt military is plagued with problems from incompetent officers to low-morale troops to equipment that won't work. I hope you're right, but I also think Russia just has the sheer weight of numbers to end this if they really wanted to. So far, Putin hasn't shown he really wants to win. A Heroic raid-geared tank can solo a Heroic dungeon, but not if they pull the entire thing at once, including all 3-5 bosses...well maybe a DK, but that's it. Point is, Russia's not going full force, and it's either because they can't or they don't want to. I think it's the second. I'm okay with never finding out.

Point is, things have changed to the point that we are no longer talking about how long Ukraine survives, but legitimately non-sarcastically if Ukraine can actually push Russia out. People have posted scattered reports of counter-offenses up to Russia's border. And "that could be anyone's building fire!" has come up a lot. Ukraine has done one amazing job, stopping what we until recently thought was a superpower, and while I still don't see them winning, I would no longer put money on it.

You also need to take to account what winning entails, for example after the Winter War and the Continuation War Finland was deemed to have lost the war due to having to give up territory, but did they really lose? They kept their independence, and a lot of Finns would have told you at the time that that was winning and for the Karjala takas crowd, do we really want a thoroughly russified area back which will create a significant russian minority in Finland?

Now I'm not saying Ukraine should do that as they set their own win conditions and those may be not what we would see as winning, my point is: Winning is subjective. I would however keep an eye on Kherson and the area north of Izium the coming days/weeks.

[Gorsameth]

I see nothing that would lead me to believe Ukraine cannot push Russia completely out and reclaim both 'republicans'. Perhaps stopping short of reclaiming Crimea.

Russia hasn't gained any meaningful ground in ages and is still losing material at an alarming rate while Ukraine is slowly pushing them back while more and more supplies are send to support them.

[Breccia]

You also need to take to account what winning entails

Indeed. A topic that's come up here a few times is Russia forcing Ukraine to hand over yet another part of their sovereign country. Quite frankly, I would assume at this point Russia just wouldn't want it anymore. It clearly doesn't want them.

[Poopymonster]

Now I'm not saying Ukraine should do that as they set their own win conditions and those may be not what we would see as winning, my point is: Winning is subjective. I would however keep an eye on Kherson and the area north of Izium the coming days/weeks.

At a glance both sides have changed their apparent public "win" conditions.
Russia: Violently eradicate the Ukraine Nazi's, their sympathizers, and the system in charge while bringing the whole country back into the loving bosom of Mother Russia.
Which became: Take over X cities, eradicate the Nazis.
Which became: Take over small portion, having eradicated the Nazis already by leveling cities including Nazi men, Nazi women and Nazi children.
Now they just need a banner saying "Миссия выполнена"

Ukraine: Make Russia pay in bodies and bucks before we're dead. In ass splattering amounts if possible. Survive as long as possible.
Which became: Keep our independence, make them pay.
Which became: Fight back...and win?
Which became: Having overestimated Russia...push them back, retake what's ours!

As long as the Ukraine WANTS to keep fighting off the invasion, they'll get aid whether it's humanitarian, financial, or dakka.

[Draco-Onis]

At a glance both sides have changed their apparent public "win" conditions.
Russia: Violently eradicate the Ukraine Nazi's, their sympathizers, and the system in charge while bringing the whole country back into the loving bosom of Mother Russia.
Which became: Take over X cities, eradicate the Nazis.
Which became: Take over small portion, having eradicated the Nazis already by leveling cities including Nazi men, Nazi women and Nazi children.
Now they just need a banner saying "Миссия выполнена"

Ukraine: Make Russia pay in bodies and bucks before we're dead. In ass splattering amounts if possible. Survive as long as possible.
Which became: Keep our independence, make them pay.
Which became: Fight back...and win?
Which became: Having overestimated Russia...push them back, retake what's ours!

As long as the Ukraine WANTS to keep fighting off the invasion, they'll get aid whether it's humanitarian, financial, or dakka.

It's a pyric victory for whichever country comes out on top, Ukraine was already in deep debt before the invasion, the "aid" isn't free money it's being added to their considerable debt. The millions of people that have fled will be settled in other countries and will not be return. That's not even going into the even larger debt load they will have to take on to rebuild.

The massive corruption problems the country has didn't vanish because they are fighting a war. It's going to be a shit show either way freedom isn't cheap I suppose.

[Breccia]

It's a pyric victory for whichever country comes out on top

Ukraine was attacked for no reason by what should have been a vastly superior foe. I wish there was a better term for this situation.

"He was attacked by a bear!"
"Holy shit, did it kill him?"
"No, broke both his arms and a few ribs, but he managed to chase the bear away!"
"Oh man, what a pyrrhic victory."

Seriously the fact that any level of victory can realistically be obtained is massive. We all knew this war they didn't start was going to cost them dearly.

Related: Russian state-run TV says they should use nukes. I think they've done that before.

Still comes off as saber-rattling more than a buildup to the actual launch. One, Russia's nukes might not work anymore. Two, nobody in their right or even most of their wrong mind would nuke their own border when the prevailing winds blow into their face.

[Draco-Onis]

Seriously the fact that any level of victory can realistically be obtained is massive. We all knew this war they didn't start was going to cost them dearly.

Related: Russian state-run TV says they should use nukes. I think they've done that before.

Still comes off as saber-rattling more than a buildup to the actual launch. One, Russia's nukes might not work anymore. Two, nobody in their right or even most of their wrong mind would nuke their own border when the prevailing winds blow into their face.

Any victory is going to take years unless something changes in Russia, the nuke talk is just saber rattling. There are so many ways to induce nuke level of destruction without having to resort to one. Aside from pure shock and awe or for Russia to be the second country to use nukes on civilians after the US I do not see the point.

[Breccia]

Any victory is going to take years unless something changes in Russia, the nuke talk is just saber rattling.

Agreed and agreed. What I hope changes in Russia is "Russia gives up and goes home". Putin might realize that murdering his own army isn't very wise, or he might have second thoughts on the way out the fifth-floor window while suffering from food poisoning. Oh, wait, he's hiding in his bunker like a fat orange bitch. Well point stands, someone might kill Putin and take over and end the war.

Besides that, yeah, it won't be soon. Putin doesn't care about the people he's sending without food or ammo to die, and Ukraine has proven they're not giving up.

[Gorsameth]

It's a pyric victory for whichever country comes out on top, Ukraine was already in deep debt before the invasion, the "aid" isn't free money it's being added to their considerable debt. The millions of people that have fled will be settled in other countries and will not be return. That's not even going into the even larger debt load they will have to take on to rebuild.

The massive corruption problems the country has didn't vanish because they are fighting a war. It's going to be a shit show either way freedom isn't cheap I suppose.

No, freedom isn't cheap. But it sure as shit beats being a Russian puppet state for the rest of the foreseeable future...

Seriously, there is no such thing as a pyric victory when you survive as a state against overwhelming odds.