Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gaidax]

Of course China is in for their own interests. They will keep things friendly enough with Russia, because they themselves are eyeing Taiwan and other goals in their sphere of influence. They will need that UN veto and someone to watch their back when they will inevitably decide to go for it.

They also assuredly would like to create some sort of counter alliance to give West a pause and entice others to join and Russia is an important piece in that.

Now, that's not to say they are happy about the whole mess - I am sure CCP is not exactly happy about Putin starting this, simply because it's both way too soon and because inadvertently it put the West into consolidation and preparation mode ahead of schedule.

So right now China is forced to try to walk the fine line of neutrality-ish on the whole thing. They are not quite ready yet for their own BS. On the other hand I have no doubt China will give a hand to Russia if things are dire, because they have no interest in Russian regime collapse or worse some sort of coup or course reversal happening that would align Russia with the West (or at least chill it the fuck down).

[Corvus]

China isn't going to lift a finger to save Russia - a broken Russia is even better for them because they would be utterly dependent on China and China could just bend them over and have their way with them.

Prior to this, I am sure they were looking at Russia to help them out against the West, but given how badly Russia has performed, how they have wrecked their armed forces in the process and can't replace their lost vehicles because of sanctions on critical components, they'd be of very little help to China in the event of anything happening. No doubt China realises that they would in effect be on their own.

And Taiwan has been watching Ukraine's heroic resistance with interest as well. They are learning the lessons from it. China is probably not happy about that either.

[ABEEnr2]

Your news outlets were already saying "Russia is running out of missiles" back in March; missiles still fly to this day.

Donbass is getting routed as we speak. Kherson and Melitopol are switching to roubles.

Western help to Ukraine is laughable and makes no difference.

Over 2400 vehicles have been destroyed and of 2400 there are 410 tanks that got deleted thanks to javelin, NLAW, and others. Your Helicopters are getting destroyed thanks to stinger and other MANPADS. your planes are nowhere to be seen other than a few meters above the ground. So by the looks of it the western help is really good. Oh, I forgot to mention all the howitzers that Ukraine have been getting.

also "Donbas is getting routed as we speak. "
Really? you took ur entire army that was around Kyiv (mind u they retreated because they couldn't do anything) plus all the other armies that retreated or couldn't hold their ground brought more reserve just to just to take a single area and u still cant.

[Shadowferal]

Hmf...On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine..and it's been 3 months ongoing from what was initially touted as a conflict that won't last much longer than 3 days.

[zorkuus]

Hmf...On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine..and it's been 3 months ongoing from what was initially touted as a conflict that won't last much longer than 3 days.

Nearly 30k dead ruzzki orcs. Shillcker: "everything is going as planned".

[Saradain]

I hope no.
If the discussion keep civil there is no reason to ban someone, russian or not.
Also is very important in my opinion to try in some ways to understand their point of view (even if we not agree) and explain our.
That's the essence of our democracy and the main difference with a regime like Russia where you can't even be against the war and said it loud

If I started to post how purging jewish people from the face of the planet in death camps was a good thing, would you try to see my side of the matter instead of reporting me here/to police? Mind you, that kind of talk is punishable by law in many european countries for example.

Funnily enough, that kind of talk is harshly punished, but this modern version of a purge is A-OKAY here. There is no room for tolerance for straight up 1000 word essays for nearly each and every post to misdirect, divert and outright lie in defence of a genocide.

And a flood of disinformation is certainly not civil. Ever.

[korijenkins]

Your news outlets were already saying "Russia is running out of missiles" back in March; missiles still fly to this day.

Donbass is getting routed as we speak. Kherson and Melitopol are switching to roubles.

Western help to Ukraine is laughable and makes no difference.

Economy on the verge of defaulting, tens of thousands dead, equipment losses the country hasn't faced since WW2, all of it against a neighbor that any other western country would've crushed in a week if they'd wanted to.

Literally invaded on 3 fronts and got held back.

Kherson and Melitopol occupations will fail for the simple reason that Russia blew its load. They'd been relying on the fear of invasion by them to stop Ukraine from crushing the insurgency in Donbas already, now they have nothing to threaten them with. Are they going to invade again or make more hollow nuclear threats? Ukraine will fight until the end for their territory.

[zorkuus]

And a flood of disinformation is certainly not civil. Ever.

This. Even if we ignore all the rest of the bs and forum rule breaking, what defense is there for clear Kremlin propaganda to run on this site?

[Gabriel]

This. Even if we ignore all the rest of the bs and forum rule breaking, what defense is there for clear Kremlin propaganda to run on this site?

If one stays in character 100% of the time there is nothing that the mods can do.

[Slant]

I hope no.
If the discussion keep civil there is no reason to ban someone, russian or not.
Also is very important in my opinion to try in some ways to understand their point of view (even if we not agree) and explain our.
That's the essence of our democracy and the main difference with a regime like Russia where you can't even be against the war and said it loud

We've heard all we needed to hear at this point. There is nothing to be gained from tolerating their presence, tbh. Civil discussion includes having something to discuss. Making points, having arguments. Whatever you think is going on with those Putinistas, it's not a two-way conversation. It's not a discussion. It's them waiting for you to take a break to breathe so they can throw in their propaganda. And when you think you're retorting or presenting a counter argument, all they do is think about when your next pause is so they can throw in some more bullshit at you.

This, is decidedly not a civil discussion. It's not a discussion at all. It's spam.

[Shadowferal]

If one stays in character 100% of the time there is nothing that the mods can do.

An opposing perspective should always be welcome. If for no other reason that it gives others someone to yell at.

[Cynep]

It is impossible to reform great powers from outside without defeat that can impose conditions on them. And MAD makes such defeat impossible in turn.

So, yeah, you got to wait for reformer and sprinkle a lot of favors for decades before things turn around; negative sanctions simply never work if target isn't extremely eager to return to your "civilized family".

So the only outcome in Ukraine is going to be conditions imposed upon it. And given Ukrainian losses - unless you see how it can turn things around - those conditions will get worse with each passing day as war continues.

No, of course the fate of Ukraine will be decided on the battlefield, I wasn't talking about Ukraine at all. I was talking about Russian people remaining in Russia and not fleeing. These people, normal in other aspects, are now in their majority supporting murder and genocide of a neighboring nation, and are blaming problems created by their leaders on the imaginary entity called "West". Russian Federation was never a great power, Soviet Union was. But most Russians don't even think about that, they're in a delirious imperialistic enrage, and their problems will worsen until they calm down. But how will they do that? I don't see a realistic way.

- - - Updated - - -

Ahm, as a German, Nazism is quite alive here, I have to (sadly) say. I mean, it's leagues away from what it was in the 30es, but, as Bertolt Brecht put it;

"Der Schoß ist fruchtbar noch, aus dem das kroch." (The loins this spawned from are still fertile.)

Agree with the peaceful and prosperous part, though. Still, things like that hardly die. They just crawl back for a while.

Yes it's nearly impossible to kill an ideology, but there's a huge difference between a few fringe madmen who dream of genociding "wrong" people while everyone else views them as morons, and a whole nation where the genocidal ideology is official and people who disagree have to keep quiet or they get into trouble. Germany went from the latter to the former, but Russia is stuck for now.

[Gabriel]

An opposing perspective should always be welcome. If for no other reason that it gives others someone to yell at.

Sure, but let me yell at them without getting put on a timeout.

[Dadwen]

Putin signs a law admitting people to the army under contract up to age 65

This so they have someone that knows how to work the T-62 museum pieces?

[Santti]

Putin signs a law admitting people to the army under contract up to age 65

This so they have someone that knows how to work the T-62 museum pieces?

Lol, maybe. That, or the kids they use are not indoctrinated enough to run to their deaths in a pointless war.

[Yunru]

Putin signs a law admitting people to the army under contract up to age 65

This so they have someone that knows how to work the T-62 museum pieces?

So i guess they want to get rid of their old population so they wont have to pay for them not working due to age :P

[Dadwen]

So i guess they want to get rid of their old population so they wont have to pay for them not working due to age :P

Ehh this is Russia, if they didn't want to pay them they'd just not pay, anyone.
Kremlin: no no your son was not KIA, we have him as AWOL
Parent: he was on the Moskva,
Kremlin: we have him recorded as walking away from battle....
Parent: it was a ship at sea???
Kremlin: you ever hear about our Siberia vacation plan?

[Gaidax]

Ehh this is Russia, if they didn't want to pay them they'd just not pay, anyone.
Kremlin: no no your son was not KIA, we have him as AWOL
Parent: he was on the Moskva,
Kremlin: we have him recorded as walking away from battle....
Parent: it was a ship at sea???
Kremlin: you ever hear about our Siberia vacation plan?

I actually would say that it is not exactly the case. Soldiers' Mothers is not exactly a powerless thing there, even courts prefer not to push their luck there.

What is true that it would take for these mothers quite a bit to push through lies and half-truths to get what they should, some give up, but there is no Siberia vacation plan there - it's not something authorities want to mess with, they can't pull out a "traitor" card there without a major wave of rage.

Basically given enough pushing, eventually authorities case by case decide it's not worth the savings and issues. That is how some soldiers get out of Ukraine as well, their parents push enough until it becomes not tenable to hold them.

[Shrouded]

Apparently "other measures reportedly under consideration include extending conscription and reducing the time recruits spend training before being sent to the front line". Reduced training? Sounds like they think their casualty rate isn't high enough as it is.

[Shalcker]

Economy on the verge of defaulting,

No. There is steady flow of foreign currency due to energy sales - in fact Russia is getting record-high profits despite lower volumes, and Russia can pay every debt it owes (and it doesn't owe that much in the first place).

US going "we'll not let Russia pay it's debts even thought it is perfectly capable and willing to do it from current account so that it defaults" is laughable.

tens of thousands dead,

Generally it's "tens of thousands losses" - that is, dead and wounded. Some of the wounded return to fight later; some don't. Oppositional outlets counting confirmed funerals from publicly available information - and it isn't hidden, really - get less then three thousands "confirmed dead" Russians.

Ukrainians do not declare and underplay their losses for a reason - their army would already surrender if they could see real picture.

Given Russian air, armor, and artillery superiority (even if it isn't total in every situation) and long-range missile strikes on Ukrainian barracks higher Ukrainian losses are natural. Sure, some Ukrainians can ambush convoys... and then they can also get obliterated by TOS-2 thermobaric explosives in their trenches and bunkers. You cannot win war by ambushes alone.

equipment losses the country hasn't faced since WW2,

Yes, major wars like that are fairly rare.
Idiots at helm that refuse to acknowledge reality and let their country suffer trillions in damage over "principle" (and expecting West to foot restoration bill) is relatively new thing too.

all of it against a neighbor that any other western country would've crushed in a week if they'd wanted to.

You're selling 40+ million second-largest European country short. West couldn't do it in a week even against much smaller Iraq.

Kherson and Melitopol occupations will fail for the simple reason that Russia blew its load. They'd been relying on the fear of invasion by them to stop Ukraine from crushing the insurgency in Donbas already, now they have nothing to threaten them with. Are they going to invade again or make more hollow nuclear threats? Ukraine will fight until the end for their territory.

Yes, Western willingness for Ukraine "to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian" is well-known.

But if Russia is spent, where do you think Ukrainian strength was concentrated, most capable units and best defenses? In Donbass - being crushed from the start of this "special military operation".
Ukrainian forces are so spent they have to send "territorial defense" units to front lines there without any training - units that flee or surrender en masse.