Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Makabreska]

The far-right in the United States, at least, loves them. Trump most of all.

I saw Bellingcat article showing that Qanon is actually not universally pro invasion. There are voices among them calling for peace.

[Kaleredar]

I saw Bellingcat article showing that Qanon is actually not universally pro invasion. There are voices among them calling for peace.

Qanon thinks Hillary Clinton runs a satanic pizza parlor, so I’m not going to use them as a litmus test for anything.

[zorkuus]

Not really, when we remember that the "Nazi Ukrainians" were the slogan of the invasion.

They understand that it is merely propaganda. Heck Ruzzia itself has a domestic "problem" with neo-nazis. That's in quotations because "secretly" they support the bastards. Forget what you know about the USSR, the Ruzzki Federation leans far-right. Who does their fighting? The ethnic minorities/poor. Who marches in their parades? The white boys from Moscow and St. Petersburg.

[Collegeguy]

No missiles that can reach into russia

Given that russia was very clear about this I'm not surprised.

Biden changed is mind on this. Very good news because Russia is bluffing.

[Corvus]

Good to see that they are getting HIMARS and MRLS finally. Need to find the threat again where someone was talking about the differences between them and the Russian systems, but it is light and day. The Ukrainians will be probably be getting the 70km rockets, which far outrange what the Russians have. In addition the US versions are far, far more accurate than the Russians one - the Russian systems are aimed by hand while the American ones use computers. And the Russians ones need loading by hand, which makes it very slow, while the American ones have built in cranes to assist loading.

But there is talk of a lot more new stuff going the Ukrainians way as well - Biden wants to send hellfire armed Grey Eagle drones, Germany is reportedly going to send IRIS-T air defense systems, Greece is sending BMPs, Belgium seems to have had a large number of armoured self-propelled howitzers go missing, Bulgaria has sent SU-25s and more besides.

Meanwhile Russia is having to take tanks out of Belarus' reserves to replace losses.

- - - Updated - - -

A couple of threads on just how important Ukraine getting MRLS/HIMARS is.

Comparing Russian and US systems.

What Ukraine can do with them.

[Iphie]

Biden changed is mind on this. Very good news because Russia is bluffing.

Not really, He's giving medium range missiles (70km/44mi), not long range missiles (300km/190mi), still good news but definitely not the same.

Meanwhile Russia is having to take tanks out of Belarus' reserves to replace losses.

Oooh, where did you see that?

[Corvus]

Not really, He's giving medium range missiles (70km/44mi), not long range missiles (300km/190mi), still good news but definitely not the same.

Officially they can do 80km/49mi - unofficially it is believed they can do even further than that.

- - - Updated - - -

Oooh, where did you see that?

Was from Ukrainian intelligence - will see if I can find it again. Grain of salt and all, but given Russian losses it isn't inconceivable.

[Gaidax]

US should have cut the crap and given Ukraine long range ones, so they could pound Russian occupied positions from a safe and convenient distance. 70km is nice, but 300km would be the actual game changer.

All this restraint and beating around the bush only costs more lives and more funds in the long run.

[Mihalik]

All this restraint and beating around the bush only costs more lives and more funds in the long run.

Sad part is...if this just keeps going on and on, they will eventually end up getting the long range ones. NATO should have just thrown gear at the Ukrainians from day one...not slowly ramping up the size of the equipment from non-lethal to lethal to anti tank to armored vehicles to tanks to artillery etc etc.

People just keep dying in ever increasing numbers.

[Specialka]

Btw, what happen to all that equipment once the war is over ? They did not pay for any of it ?

[Corvus]

This is pretty cool - the Lithuanian public crowdfunded a Bayraktar to be given to Ukraine. The company have said that they will give it for free and instead the funds raised should be sent to Ukraine as humanitarian aid.

[Iphie]

Btw, what happen to all that equipment once the war is over ? They did not pay for any of it ?

Funny you should ask...Interpol actually yesterday announced they were a bit worried about potential arms trafficking after the war is over. Otherwise I assume some deals will be struck and there's been some thoughts of using the frozen assets of russia for compensation. (I'm not necessarily a fan of that but only for precedent reasons.)

Interpol does have a good point though, I don't think anyone wants to see these weapons end up in criminal hands, or worse still in criminal hands with ties to the Kremlin.

[Belize]

Btw, what happen to all that equipment once the war is over ? They did not pay for any of it ?

They're paying for it by fighting Russia? That's payment enough on a world scale.

[Mihalik]

Btw, what happen to all that equipment once the war is over ? They did not pay for any of it ?

Nor should they. All that they are being given should simply be written off as a donation.

NATO exists to check Russian aggression and ensure the security of its members. Every penny spent aiding Ukraine goes towards the fulfillment of those strategic objectives through the erosion of Russian military capabilities.

The myth of Russian tanks overrunning Europe has been firmly put to rest, when all this is done, the only threat from Russia should be them constantly begging for food aid.

[Specialka]

Funny you should ask...Interpol actually yesterday announced they were a bit worried about potential arms trafficking after the war is over. Otherwise I assume some deals will be struck and there's been some thoughts of using the frozen assets of russia for compensation. (I'm not necessarily a fan of that but only for precedent reasons.)

Interpol does have a good point though, I don't think anyone wants to see these weapons end up in criminal hands, or worse still in criminal hands with ties to the Kremlin.

I guess I share Interpol worries. Like it or not, the corruption level in Ukraine is huge, maybe not on par with Russia' s, but still too high.

That is also why I worry when people says that Ukraine belongs in EU. Yeah, in 20 or 30 years. Once they will have sorted their stuff.

[Forogil]

Btw, what happen to all that equipment once the war is over ? They did not pay for any of it ?

Most has been given, but some of the equipment is part of the Ukraine Lend-Lease act; and some of that should be given back or repaid at some time - after WWII the latest repayment was in 2006.

[Draco-Onis]

Nor should they. All that they are being given should simply be written off as a donation.

NATO exists to check Russian aggression and ensure the security of its members. Every penny spent aiding Ukraine goes towards the fulfillment of those strategic objectives through the erosion of Russian military capabilities.

The myth of Russian tanks overrunning Europe has been firmly put to rest, when all this is done, the only threat from Russia should be them constantly begging for food aid.

While this is ideal it's not the reality economic colonialism has been the default US policy it's so successful the Chinese have copied it so similar results. The complete lack of clamoring for erasing Ukraine's current debt is the biggest indicator. Ukraine is just too strategically and economically important for us to let them go Scott free. Don't get me wrong US domination is the lesser of two evils but the concept a lot of people have that Ukraine will be a free democratic country if they manage to win this isn't realistic.

[Kaleredar]

While this is ideal it's not the reality economic colonialism has been the default US policy it's so successful the Chinese have copied it so similar results. The complete lack of clamoring for erasing Ukraine's current debt is the biggest indicator. Ukraine is just too strategically and economically important for us to let them go Scott free. Don't get me wrong US domination is the lesser of two evils but the concept a lot of people have that Ukraine will be a free democratic country if they manage to win this isn't realistic.

I think most people (certainly Ukraine) would be content to have things simply return to more or less how they were before this whole fiasco.

I’m sure closer ties between Ukraine and NATO/the EU/the US are inevitable after this affair is ended, but that’s not “manipulation”on the part of the latter so much as “these are the guys that helped us stop the genocidal invaders on our border, perhaps being closer friends with them is in our best interest.” It certainly was this time around.

[Breccia]

So the reports are increasing that Putin has cancer. To date, I haven't seen them from a source I'd consider ironclad, but the fact that the number is increasing is telling. Not that Putin is necessarily dying of cancer right now, but there's enough smoke to understand why people are yelling "Fire!" Or, maybe it's being done to troll Putin.

Something to keep an eye on, but not something I 100% believe...yet.

Meanwhile, Germany is saying Russia's economy is collapsing and Putin responds by firing more generals.

German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck made the remarks the same day Russian officials revealed that five more generals had been fired.

Since invading Ukraine more than three months ago, Russia has secured modest gains in its battle for control of the eastern Donbas region. Income from energy sales to Europe has played a major role in funding Russia's war, and Habeck acknowledged that Russia has been aided by historically high energy prices and Europe's inability to completely halt purchases.

"We can only be ashamed that we haven’t yet managed to reduce this dependence more significantly,” said Habeck, who is also Germany's economy minister. But he added that "Putin is still getting money, but he can hardly spend it” because of Western sanctions.

"Time is not working for Russia. It is working against Russia, it is working against the Russian economy," he said. "No one wants to invest in Russia any more.”

And

Russian President Vladimir Putin has fired five generals and a police colonel in what state-run media outlet Pravda described as "a standard employee reshuffle procedure."

/eyeroll

All six had been assigned to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, which is responsible for law enforcement across the nation of 145 million people.

[Gaidax]

Btw, what happen to all that equipment once the war is over ? They did not pay for any of it ?

That bridge will be crossed when we actually get there.

It will just stay in Ukraine to reinforce it, because Russia will always be a threat, even if they put some happy Mr Charm Offensive cupcake as their head and do almost miraculous 180 degrees.

Besides, what West pays now is a bargain in context of geopolitical benefits it will reap from it. West would wish things turn out so good with the inevitable confrontation with China.

- - - Updated - - -

*snip*

Putin's cancer is just a wildcard that can go either way.

Him kicking the bucked and the system deciding that this is a great ladder to get off the tree they climbed on would be a good outcome, but I don't think this is something that can be counted on.