Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shalcker]

I'm convinced that Russians as a nation have been so deeply scarred psychologically by centuries of Russian autocrats that they are incapable of functioning without being ruled by an autocrat. They are incapable of forming a functional civil society.

It requires a lot of time to build up "unopposed" and West doesn't manage to last that long without creating another major crisis requiring "extraordinary measures" that tend to stick around.

[beanman12345]

I'm convinced that Russians as a nation have been so deeply scarred psychologically by centuries of Russian autocrats that they are incapable of functioning without being ruled by an autocrat. They are incapable of forming a functional civil society.

Have to agree, forever cucked.

[Elegiac]

It's fascinating how Russians seem to not remember anymore, but Putin was literally the appointed successor of Yeltsin. Yeltsin literally made Putin. Russian's economic woes post '91 were certainly not helped by Yeltsin's incompetence but were hardly caused by him.

They also don't seem to get that part of its problems is based on the fact that trying to balance building up a functional civil society with maintaining a military-based empire isn't possible. All it results in is an anemic polity that has to run hard to stand still before eventually giving out when a crisis becomes sufficiently insurmountable.

[Flarelaine]

Again, noone proposed any better agreement. How would you reintegrate breakaway provinces without any concessions? "Shell them until everyone leaves" that Ukraine seemed to prefer not being an option.

You could have Ukraine "We accept XX billions as compensation and drop our claim on Crimea", for example; Putin would easily agree.

But over last 8 years "new Ukraine" have proven to be incapable of honoring any agreements - including to the rest of the world like China.

Still invalidates your claim of being the best deal for Ukraine.

[Elegiac]

It requires a lot of time to build up "unopposed" and West doesn't manage to last that long without creating another major crisis requiring "extraordinary measures" that tend to stick around.

Blaming your own government's incompetence on (fictional) foreign intervention isn't a good look especially when you're trying to justify your own (actual) foreign intervention as a function of another government's incompetence, habibi.

[Shalcker]

They also don't seem to get that part of its problems is based on the fact that trying to balance building up a functional civil society with maintaining a military-based empire isn't possible. All it results in is an anemic polity that has to run hard to stand still before eventually giving out when a crisis becomes sufficiently insurmountable.

Also the fact that budget is filled primarily by taxes on state enterprises rather then private companies robs them of potential influence and "alternative-power-center-building".

[alkyd]

It's fascinating how Russians seem to not remember anymore, but Putin was literally the appointed successor of Yeltsin. Yeltsin literally made Putin. Russian's economic woes post '91 were certainly not helped by Yeltsin's incompetence but were hardly caused by him.

It was a bit more complicated than that. Oligarchs had a hand in his candidacy.

[Elegiac]

It was a bit more complicated than that. Oligarchs had a hand in his candidacy.

Wow it's almost as if you didn't try being sufficiently liberal and democratic under Yeltsin making it not an actual argument in favor of Putainist autocracy. Shocker.

Also the fact that budget is filled primarily by taxes on state enterprises rather then private companies robs them of potential influence and "alternative-power-center-building".

Something which annexing Ukraine will absolutely not solve, so remind me what you think the goal is here besides distracting ordinary Russian East Ukrainian people from their government's manifest incompetence and corruption?

[Shalcker]

Still invalidates your claim of being the best deal for Ukraine.

It is best deal because noone proposed any better. Didn't even try to.

Sure, you could imagine world where there exists noone but Ukraine and thus their actions can be totally unrestrained; we don't live in that world.

[Flarelaine]

It is best deal because noone proposed any better. Didn't even try to.

Sure, you could imagine world where there exists noone but Ukraine and thus their actions can be totally unrestrained; we don't live in that world.

Instead, I live in a world where Russia guaranteed Ukraine's borders in five separate agreements and then went to take a shit on all of them.

[Shalcker]

Blaming your own government's incompetence on (fictional) foreign intervention isn't a good look especially when you're trying to justify your own (actual) foreign intervention as a function of another government's incompetence, habibi.

Foreign interventions are quite real this century though; but i wasn't even talking about them.

Financial crises create enough disruptions to stall development of "civil society" too.

You got to catch upswing as it develops and keep it going until it is sufficiently entrenched. Which didn't happen.

Once they hit troubles potential "alternative powers" went to government for handouts and got them - in exchange for being personally indebted to it.

[Forogil]

I'd put it as 94% "nothing will happen".
5% "Zelenski actually declares martial law (as his faction denied he planned to) that he will justify by coup concerns" then proceeds to wipe out opposition and their media outlets
0.9% "Actual Ukrainian coup happens"
0.1% "Russia actually attacks"

How do you rate that prediction?

#JustAskingQuestions

[Elegiac]

Foreign interventions are quite real this century though; but i wasn't even talking about them.

"Some foreign interventions happened therefore any accusations of foreign intervention are valid" isn't an argument.

Financial crises create enough disruptions to stall development of "civil society" too.

PFFFFTHAHAHAHA.

ITT: The 2008 Financial Crisis, which was due to an increasingly corrupt oligarchy deregulating its financial sector, is being used as the justification for... *checks notes*.... corrupt oligarchy.



Is this what happens when you legitimately believe horseshit like "recessions are the result of Western decadence and not just a thing which happens in a market economy"? 'Cause it's fucking hilarious.

[Shalcker]

How do you rate that prediction?

#JustAskingQuestions

Still no Russian attack so far; it looks like "Zelensky declares martial law" might become true though.

- - - Updated - - -

"Some foreign interventions happened therefore any accusations of foreign intervention are valid" isn't an argument.

Did US civil society actually stop any US foreign interventions?

Didn't look that way to me.

ITT: The 2008 Financial Crisis, which was due to an increasingly corrupt oligarchy deregulating its financial sector, is being used as the justification for... *checks notes*.... corrupt oligarchy.

Yes, corrupt oligarchy breeds corrupt oligarchy. Shocker, i know.

[Easo]

Looks like it is confirmed that regular Russian troops have entered Donbas and are now in Donetsk. Nothing official yet, but funny things might happen until morning. People are going to sleep and that means less reports.

Oh yeah and "Russia is still open to dialogue with Western countries", as per Russian Foreign Ministry

How do you rate that prediction?

#JustAskingQuestions

Heh.
Speaking about predictions. I would say it seems lot of people knew and were right about fecal matter hitting the fan months ago. Both on Western and Russian side. I guess spy agencies did their thing (though some things were obvious).

Still no Russian attack so far; it looks like "Zelensky declares martial law" might become true though.

Not a day without Shalcker twisting words and doing half-truths. The classic of classics.

[Elegiac]

Did US civil society actually stop any US foreign interventions?

Where on earth did you get this strawman from. Rofl.

Yes, corrupt oligarchy breeds corrupt oligarchy. Shocker, i know.

Which begs the question of why you're shilling for corrupt oligarchy as a necessity if you're acknowledging it to be a bad thing.

[Magnagarde]

Looks like it is confirmed that regular Russian troops have entered Donbas and are now in Donetsk. Nothing official yet, but funny things might happen until morning. People are going to sleep and that means less reports.

The question that now stands open is the following; what about Odessa, Kharkiv and the rest of the regional territories of both Donetsk and Lugansk. The Ukrainians are heavily fortified in these areas and won't give them up without a fight. Mariupol on the coast of Azov nearly fell in 2014.

[Voidism]

Still no Russian attack so far; it looks like "Zelensky declares martial law" might become true though.

I formally declare your house to be independent of you. I will now move in to keep the peace. This is totally not a robbery btw because I said so.

[Elegiac]

No clue, but something has to be done.

At minimum, this needs to happen:

1) Nordstream gets the axe.
2) Russia East Ukraine gets kicked out of SWIFT.
3) Putain and his cronies have any and all assets held abroad either frozen or confiscated to defray the costs of #1.

Anything less is just lip service.

[Arrashi]

Russia should only extend to help brethren if they are under threat, not pick fights where there are no brethren or threats. Poland has basically no minorities n no issues with Russia, no issues but those Poland make up just cuz they are jelly that Russia is the big slavic country n poland will never be that...it's shameful how bitter Polish people are, let them stew in their self-inflicted misery...

Russians. Slavic. This made my day.