Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shalcker]

That is not what economy is showing , but keep deluding yourself.

Likewise.

Maybe you could actually link articles that give you such rosy outlook rather then simply declare it though.

[Specialka]

Likewise.

Maybe you could actually link articles that give you such rosy outlook rather then simply declare it though.

If you insist:

https://www.ft.com/content/fb79c2bd-...3-508d4df865e5

Btw, when guy like Putin boasts like that, things are pretty sure far much worse.

[Shalcker]

If you insist:

https://www.ft.com/content/fb79c2bd-...3-508d4df865e5

Btw, when guy like Putin boasts like that, things are pretty sure far much worse.

Sorry, it's behind paywall, so you might want to give some quotes.

[Specialka]

Sorry, it's behind paywall, so you might want to give some quotes.

It is not for me and I am not sub to the FT.

[Shalcker]

It is not for me and I am not sub to the FT.

Lots of reasons why it could be different between us; i cannot see it, and blurb only talks about Putin boasting that Russian economy weathered sanctions "better then Europe".

[Specialka]

Lots of reasons why it could be different between us; i cannot see it, and blurb only talks about Putin boasting that Russian economy weathered sanctions "better then Europe".

There was also some numbers about EU growth which will take a hit (which is normal) and Russia growth which would even take a bigger hit (around -10%).

It seems I can't access it now because it is now behind a paywall for me as well.

[Azadina]

Sorry, it's behind paywall, so you might want to give some quotes.

The Russian ministry of truth cannot even afford to pay for a newspaper? And here you were boasting how well Russia does economically compared to the west.

[Shalcker]

There was also some numbers about EU growth which will take a hit (which is normal) and Russia growth which would even take a bigger hit (around -10%).

It seems I can't access it now because it is now behind a paywall for me as well.

Everyone is going to take hits - economic wars in modern globalized markets are not going to be one-sided. And EU so far is doing much worse then projected.

Worst-case for EU is:
- people freeze (even reduction of "allowed temperatures" can bring hits to health)
- getting all "alternative" suppliers lined up and building local LNG hubs will take at least several years, and actually replacing entire Russian production (rather then shifting flows around) would need trillions in investments
- industries collapse (some already do due to prices; more will with actual physical shortages)
- competitiveness of European goods that were buoyed by cheap Russian energy is lost forever (LNG will forever have higher price then pipe gas, and alternative pipe options are rather limited), making Europe inferior option to Asian - or American - producers.

vs

Russia has to:
- find new buyers of oil and gas that is going to be in short supply for next decade - doesn't seem to be a real problem; volumes drop, but price increases easily make up for it so far... could change if production would increase, but previous underinvestment all around the world makes that very unlikely, and "green/renewable future" beliefs are still strong
- find new suppliers of consumer and industrial electronics - or learn to produce them themselves
- industries that relied on imports will have to use lower-volume 'grey' schemes
There is enough money brought in to actually fuel internal investments in next decade, and all "basic needs" - food and energy - are not in danger of not being met (it isn't ever going to be "food for oil" like with late USSR).

[Specialka]

Everyone is going to take hits - economic wars in modern globalized markets are not going to be one-sided. And EU so far is doing much worse then projected.

Worst-case for EU is:
- people freeze (even reduction of "allowed temperatures" can bring hits to health)
- getting all "alternative" suppliers lined up and building local LNG hubs will take at least several years, and actually replacing entire Russian production (rather then shifting flows around) would need trillions in investments
- industries collapse (some already do due to prices; more will with actual physical shortages)
- competitiveness of European goods that were buoyed by cheap Russian energy is lost forever (LNG will forever have higher price then pipe gas, and alternative pipe options are rather limited), making Europe inferior option to Asian - or American - producers.

vs

Russia has to:
- find new buyers of oil and gas that is going to be in short supply for next decade - doesn't seem to be a real problem; volumes drop, but price increases easily make up for it so far... could change if production would increase, but previous underinvestment all around the world makes that very unlikely, and "green/renewable future" beliefs are still strong
- find new suppliers of consumer and industrial electronics - or learn to produce them themselves
- industries that relied on imports will have to use lower-volume 'grey' schemes
There is enough money brought in to actually fuel internal investments in next decade, and all "basic needs" - food and energy - are not in danger of not being met (it isn't ever going to be "food for oil" like with late USSR).

EU is doing much worse than projected (maybe) but still miles better than Russia.

[Forogil]

EU is doing much worse than projected (maybe) but still miles better than Russia.

To clarify: worse than projected for EU means a small GDP growth of perhaps 2.7% instead of 4% ( https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-e...ic-forecast_en ) , Russia predicts their GDP will decline by perhaps 8% instead of the previously projected modest growth - https://www.russia-briefing.com/news...forecast.html/

[jonnysensible]

Its obvious that democracy and dictatorships cant live on planet earth together. Death to all dictators and their supporters.

[Specialka]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_I0srEaIcfQ

Very interesting video. It is in French but I think you can understand it with the youtube subtitle.

[Shalcker]

To clarify: worse than projected for EU means a small GDP growth of perhaps 2.7% instead of 4% ( https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-e...ic-forecast_en ) , Russia predicts their GDP will decline by perhaps 8% instead of the previously projected modest growth - https://www.russia-briefing.com/news...forecast.html/

Those EU predictions will not necessarily stop getting revised down as European situation worsens... another revision down with next quarter wouldn't be surprising.

[Kaleredar]

The Russian ministry of truth cannot even afford to pay for a newspaper? And here you were boasting how well Russia does economically compared to the west.

Remember, almost 80% of all Russian households have running water!

Clearly the pinnacle of civilization.

[Shalcker]

EU is doing much worse than projected (maybe) but still miles better than Russia.

Some EU countries already do worse in inflation.

[Specialka]

Some EU countries already do worse in inflation.

Can't beat 20% monthly inflation

[Kaleredar]

Everyone is going to take hits - economic wars in modern globalized markets are not going to be one-sided. And EU so far is doing much worse then projected.

Worst-case for EU is:
- people freeze (even reduction of "allowed temperatures" can bring hits to health)
- getting all "alternative" suppliers lined up and building local LNG hubs will take at least several years, and actually replacing entire Russian production (rather then shifting flows around) would need trillions in investments
- industries collapse (some already do due to prices; more will with actual physical shortages)
- competitiveness of European goods that were buoyed by cheap Russian energy is lost forever (LNG will forever have higher price then pipe gas, and alternative pipe options are rather limited), making Europe inferior option to Asian - or American - producers.

vs

Russia has to:
- find new buyers of oil and gas that is going to be in short supply for next decade - doesn't seem to be a real problem; volumes drop, but price increases easily make up for it so far... could change if production would increase, but previous underinvestment all around the world makes that very unlikely, and "green/renewable future" beliefs are still strong
- find new suppliers of consumer and industrial electronics - or learn to produce them themselves
- industries that relied on imports will have to use lower-volume 'grey' schemes
There is enough money brought in to actually fuel internal investments in next decade, and all "basic needs" - food and energy - are not in danger of not being met (it isn't ever going to be "food for oil" like with late USSR).

You claim that all of these replacement suppliers will be unfindable for Europe, and that pivoting their energy or building new infrastructure will take far, far too long... but that Russia can make up for its dearth of, what was it... oh, yeah the lack of replacement equipment for the war it's currently fighting, like it's no problem despite the financial collapse occurring, drain of both qualified individuals and wealthy individuals as they flee Russia, alienation by the rest of the world, and their lack of infrastructure to create necessary things like microchips and communications equipment that they've effectively been shut out of... but no, Russia will take its shrinking economy and rally and build these things like it's nothing, in no time, despite the growing lack of every type of capitol required to do so- financial, resource, and human, while the 27 countries in the EU will simply founder and be utterly unable to do anything.

You like tossing around the word "hopium." Perhaps you should look in the mirror about who's using it the most, here. Every single thing you claim is a "deathblow" for Europe is actively happening in Russia, it's just that Europe 1) isn't fighting a war and 2) isn't sealed off from the rest of the world. And yet you look at that situation... exclusively, it seems, because China and a few other countries are... buying your oil, because you're the cheap, exploitable source of it?

[Shalcker]

Can't beat 20% monthly inflation

Russian inflation is below that.

[Forogil]

Those EU predictions will not necessarily stop getting revised down as European situation worsens... another revision down with next quarter wouldn't be surprising.

Vague possibilities, you could also say that Morgan Stanley have a lower estimate - https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/...22-global-gdp/ - and "forget" to mention that their prediction is 2.6% (down from 2.7% by EU).

The Russian predictions may also be revised downward - and remember those were Russian predictions, whereas Morgan Stanley predict Russian economy declining by 12% compared to 8% by Russian predictions.

[Specialka]

Russian inflation is below that.

Any source to prove it ? (any independant source obviously)

- - - Updated - - -

Vague possibilities, you could also say that Morgan Stanley have a lower estimate - https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/...22-global-gdp/ - and "forget" to mention that their prediction is 2.6% (down from 2.7% by EU).

The Russian predictions may also be revised downward - and remember those were Russian predictions, whereas Morgan Stanley predict Russian economy declining by 12% compared to 8% by Russian predictions.

Let's not forget that Russia lie, raid, pillage, rape and kill when they feel like it.