1. #20721
    Quote Originally Posted by Specialka View Post
    The facts are not going your way, unless all you drink is propaganda.
    That is all that Russians have left. Anyone that was a legitimate source of opposition of Putin, or the government, have either been jailed or accidentally shot in the fucking back as they go out a window.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Which facts aren't going Russian way?
    What are you drinking to come to your conclusions?

    Didn't Popasnaya fall to Russians? Didn't Liman? Didn't AzovStal fall and surrendered? Didn't Ukrainians try to retake Snake Island and fail?

    How exactly is Russian defeat going to look like if Russia isn't pushed back and just slowly integrates captured territories?
    Russia is losing the war.

  2. #20722
    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    I wonder if that has ANY effect on Kiril.
    No. He seems like a man who has fully surrendered his anus to Putin.

  3. #20723
    The Unstoppable Force Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by postman1782 View Post
    Russia is losing the war.
    More accurately, Ukraine isn't losing. And the more time Ukraine takes "not losing," Russia digs itself even deeper.


    Why do you think resident turnip farmer is blathering on about pedantic bullshit about missiles, China, oil being bought by third-world countries and how Russia's economy is collapsing, "but not as much as you all think"? Because they have no actual way to spin this as good for Russia, so they focus on trying to pin people down in arguments about this largely irrelevant nonsense.

    Hell, I'm not even sure they know what Russia is even trying to accomplish in Ukraine, only that they've been told that it's good for them.

    "The West" is strengthening NATO's hold on Europe with the inclusion of Sweden and Finland, and it's likely looking very tempting to even more countries. So if their nebulous goal was to show "how weak the west was, and to scare countries from taking a stand against Russia" then they've utterly failed.
    Last edited by Kaleredar; 2022-05-28 at 12:09 AM.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  4. #20724
    China (you know, besties for life China) has reportedly banned all Russian airlines from flying Airbus and Boeing planes into their territory because they can't be sure the (stolen) planes haven't been deregistered.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/space_osi...10828099768321

  5. #20725
    The Unstoppable Force Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    China (you know, besties for life China) has reportedly banned all Russian airlines from flying Airbus and Boeing planes into their territory because they can't be sure the (stolen) planes haven't been deregistered.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/space_osi...10828099768321
    China is "friends" with Russia... until it starts to be an inconvenience for China.

    Which this is rapidly growing to be more and more.


    Russia should take note of what "allegiances" look like. Countries banding together and suffering mutual increased hardships in a common geopolitical interest in what "allies" do; i.e, Europe and the US suffering fuel and economic issues in a coordinated effort to stymie Russia's despotic fantasies.

    Which is something Russia does not have.

    A country opportunistically preying upon another country by not immediately stopping them while using their situation to advantageously levy influence on them... i.e, China utilizing Russia as a cheaper and cheaper resource for goods while Russia's economy collapses and their citizens undergo increased scarcity, but who China will unilaterally abandon at a drop of a hat as it is convenient to them.

    Which... yeah, is what Russia is currently undergoing.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  6. #20726
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaleredar View Post
    More accurately, Ukraine isn't losing. And the more time Ukraine takes "not losing," Russia digs itself even deeper.
    Right, Ukraine isn't losing, they are simply advancing in a direction opposite to Russian forces.
    And AzovStal defenders didn't unconditionally surrender, they just evacuated into DNR prison camps (which at the moment hold about 8 thousands Ukrainian POWs).

    Bloomberg: Russian Wins in Eastern Ukraine Spark Debate Over Course of War



    Russian troops are making steady progress in Ukraine’s east on the back of more-concentrated artillery and air power, now controlling almost all of the Luhansk region and threatening to encircle thousands of Ukraine’s most experienced troops.

    That is sparking fears that Russia could be poised for a bigger breakthrough, and leading to increasingly panicked calls from Kyiv for even more powerful offensive weapons.


    Russia’s capture of a series of towns including Popasna means its forces hold 95% of the Luhansk region that makes up the northern half of the Donbas area. On Friday, Ukraine’s military command said Russian troops were pushing on from Popasna toward the town of Bakhmut, 32 kilometers (20 miles) west, seeking to isolate Ukrainian forces in a pocket of government-held territory around Sievierodonetsk.

    UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson described the Russian gains as “slow, but I’m afraid palpable, progress,” in a Bloomberg interview. He also backed Ukrainian demands for supplies of longer range multiple launch rocket, or MLRS, systems as “where the world needs to go.”

    The recent Russian gains appear at least in part to be the products of past Ukrainian success. By mounting so effective a defense that Russian commanders had to withdraw from around the country’s two largest cities – Kyiv and Kharkiv – Ukraine also drove them to abandon a wildly over-ambitious battle plan that had left their troops thinly spread and too far from logistical lifelines.

    Ukrainian military spokesman Oleksandr Motuzyanyk described the change in the Russian approach to the war as “colossal” at a briefing this week. Russian commanders now take fewer risks and ensure better air cover as they pursue scorched earth tactics. That increasingly entails leveling Ukrainian defenses with extended artillery barrages before attempting to secure territory.

    A sense that the tide of the war could be turning in favor of the likely narrowed goals of President Vladimir Putin comes as some, including former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, call for Ukraine to consider trading territory for a cease-fire.

    Yet how to interpret the Russian advances has sharply divided military analysts, with many warning against drawing conclusions from incremental movements on a relatively small part of the battlefield that earlier this month saw Russia suffer major losses in a failed attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets river.

    Just as previous Russian setbacks led to an over-optimistic consensus on Ukraine’s ability to win the war, relatively minor gains are now driving the kind of pessimism reflected in Kissinger’s remarks, Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London, wrote in a Friday blog post.

    “This indicates the ever-present danger for those analyzing the course of this war of getting too far ahead of events on the ground,” Freedman wrote. “The best assessment of Russian strategy now is that it seeks to take what it can from the current effort and then dare Ukraine to try to seize it back.”

    So far Ukrainian commanders have not taken that bait, either because they are building up reserves and awaiting the arms needed from the US and other allies to make a successful counter-offensive possible, or because they are themselves suffering heavy losses and cannot.

    In the longer term, the arrival of ever more powerful weapons and fresh Ukrainian volunteers, combined with the steady attrition of Russian forces and equipment, suggests the slow pace of movement on the battlefield favors Ukraine, according to a weekly update by Rochan Consulting, a Warsaw-based group that closely follows the war.

    “Time is working in Ukraine’s favor,” Rochan said in the report. “Unless Russia conducts mobilization (general or partial), its armed forces will not only stall over the next few weeks, but the influx of Western weaponry and Ukrainian personnel will allow Kyiv to start pushing Russian units back along a much broader front.”

    In Moscow, Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said this week that Russia had no deadlines to meet in pursuing its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

    Yet there are dangers for the administration of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, even from the limited win that Russia’s capture of the Sievierodonetsk pocket would represent for Putin, according to Mykola Bielieskov, a military analyst at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, a government think tank.

    With Russian artillery now in reach of supply roads to the pocket, Ukraine’s commanders face difficult choices: To bring in reinforcements under fire, to withdraw under fire, or mount a Mariupol-style defense after encirclement, in the hope that a counter-offensive and relief will come in time.

    “All options are militarily and politically risky,” Bielieskov said, speaking by phone from Kyiv. “It’s very difficult to explain to Ukrainians why the Russians still have the ability to move forward, after being rolled back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. So even if it is not a major success, this local success would have negative repercussions for the government.”

    Bielieskov blamed the slowness of even the US administration to make the move from giving Ukraine’s soldiers what they need to survive Russian attacks, to giving them what’s required to compete with Russia’s quantitative advantage in artillery and mount counter-offensives.

    Rather than the 90 howitzers the US has promised to date, Ukraine needs 400 to 500, as well as MLRS with ranges of at least 70 to 80 kilometers, weapons that will allow it to damage Russian forces and firepower at depth, according to Bielieskov.

    Yet despite Johnson’s support and a CNN report that the US is preparing to green light sending MLRS to Ukraine, the administration in Washington has been hesitant, worrying that the missiles - some of which have a range of 300 kilometers - might be used to strike deep inside Russia, according to CNN and others.

    A senior defense department official said Thursday that no decision had been taken, meaning even if the US goes ahead it would be weeks before any of the systems appear on the front lines.

    “Washington decided that Russia will not be allowed to prevail militarily, but it is doing that in a piecemeal fashion and there remains no consensus to deliver enough weapons, quickly enough to turn Ukraine’s defense to offense,” said Bielieskov. “Remember that although the Russians are being bled, so are we.”




    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaleredar View Post
    China is "friends" with Russia... until it starts to be an inconvenience for China.

    Which this is rapidly growing to be more and more.
    You are simply losing access to information about Russia-China cooperation as they get out of public view.

    Only getting news about one side of things; never getting news about how it gets circumvented.

    Russia should take note of what "allegiances" look like. Countries banding together and suffering mutual increased hardships in a common geopolitical interest in what "allies" do; i.e, Europe and the US suffering fuel and economic issues in a coordinated effort to stymie Russia's despotic fantasies.
    How does 6th Sanctions Package going so far?
    ...clearly not everyone in Europe is prepared to suffer without being sufficiently compensated for their losses - or shoulder disproportionate burden.
    Last edited by Shalcker; 2022-05-28 at 03:31 AM.

  7. #20727
    Banned Hansworst's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post

    Only getting news about one side of things;
    That's rich, coming from you.

  8. #20728
    Quote Originally Posted by Hansworst View Post
    That's rich, coming from you.
    I'm here exactly to see the other side.

  9. #20729
    The Unstoppable Force Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Right, Ukraine isn't losing, they are simply advancing in a direction opposite to Russian forces.
    And AzovStal defenders didn't unconditionally surrender, they just evacuated into DNR prison camps (which at the moment hold about 8 thousands Ukrainian POWs).

    Bloomberg: Russian Wins in Eastern Ukraine Spark Debate Over Course of War



    Russian troops are making steady progress in Ukraine’s east on the back of more-concentrated artillery and air power, now controlling almost all of the Luhansk region and threatening to encircle thousands of Ukraine’s most experienced troops.

    That is sparking fears that Russia could be poised for a bigger breakthrough, and leading to increasingly panicked calls from Kyiv for even more powerful offensive weapons.


    Russia’s capture of a series of towns including Popasna means its forces hold 95% of the Luhansk region that makes up the northern half of the Donbas area. On Friday, Ukraine’s military command said Russian troops were pushing on from Popasna toward the town of Bakhmut, 32 kilometers (20 miles) west, seeking to isolate Ukrainian forces in a pocket of government-held territory around Sievierodonetsk.

    UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson described the Russian gains as “slow, but I’m afraid palpable, progress,” in a Bloomberg interview. He also backed Ukrainian demands for supplies of longer range multiple launch rocket, or MLRS, systems as “where the world needs to go.”

    The recent Russian gains appear at least in part to be the products of past Ukrainian success. By mounting so effective a defense that Russian commanders had to withdraw from around the country’s two largest cities – Kyiv and Kharkiv – Ukraine also drove them to abandon a wildly over-ambitious battle plan that had left their troops thinly spread and too far from logistical lifelines.

    Ukrainian military spokesman Oleksandr Motuzyanyk described the change in the Russian approach to the war as “colossal” at a briefing this week. Russian commanders now take fewer risks and ensure better air cover as they pursue scorched earth tactics. That increasingly entails leveling Ukrainian defenses with extended artillery barrages before attempting to secure territory.

    A sense that the tide of the war could be turning in favor of the likely narrowed goals of President Vladimir Putin comes as some, including former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, call for Ukraine to consider trading territory for a cease-fire.

    Yet how to interpret the Russian advances has sharply divided military analysts, with many warning against drawing conclusions from incremental movements on a relatively small part of the battlefield that earlier this month saw Russia suffer major losses in a failed attempt to cross the Siverskyi Donets river.

    Just as previous Russian setbacks led to an over-optimistic consensus on Ukraine’s ability to win the war, relatively minor gains are now driving the kind of pessimism reflected in Kissinger’s remarks, Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London, wrote in a Friday blog post.

    “This indicates the ever-present danger for those analyzing the course of this war of getting too far ahead of events on the ground,” Freedman wrote. “The best assessment of Russian strategy now is that it seeks to take what it can from the current effort and then dare Ukraine to try to seize it back.”

    So far Ukrainian commanders have not taken that bait, either because they are building up reserves and awaiting the arms needed from the US and other allies to make a successful counter-offensive possible, or because they are themselves suffering heavy losses and cannot.

    In the longer term, the arrival of ever more powerful weapons and fresh Ukrainian volunteers, combined with the steady attrition of Russian forces and equipment, suggests the slow pace of movement on the battlefield favors Ukraine, according to a weekly update by Rochan Consulting, a Warsaw-based group that closely follows the war.

    “Time is working in Ukraine’s favor,” Rochan said in the report. “Unless Russia conducts mobilization (general or partial), its armed forces will not only stall over the next few weeks, but the influx of Western weaponry and Ukrainian personnel will allow Kyiv to start pushing Russian units back along a much broader front.”

    In Moscow, Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev said this week that Russia had no deadlines to meet in pursuing its “special military operation” in Ukraine.

    Yet there are dangers for the administration of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, even from the limited win that Russia’s capture of the Sievierodonetsk pocket would represent for Putin, according to Mykola Bielieskov, a military analyst at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, a government think tank.

    With Russian artillery now in reach of supply roads to the pocket, Ukraine’s commanders face difficult choices: To bring in reinforcements under fire, to withdraw under fire, or mount a Mariupol-style defense after encirclement, in the hope that a counter-offensive and relief will come in time.

    “All options are militarily and politically risky,” Bielieskov said, speaking by phone from Kyiv. “It’s very difficult to explain to Ukrainians why the Russians still have the ability to move forward, after being rolled back from Kyiv and Kharkiv. So even if it is not a major success, this local success would have negative repercussions for the government.”

    Bielieskov blamed the slowness of even the US administration to make the move from giving Ukraine’s soldiers what they need to survive Russian attacks, to giving them what’s required to compete with Russia’s quantitative advantage in artillery and mount counter-offensives.

    Rather than the 90 howitzers the US has promised to date, Ukraine needs 400 to 500, as well as MLRS with ranges of at least 70 to 80 kilometers, weapons that will allow it to damage Russian forces and firepower at depth, according to Bielieskov.

    Yet despite Johnson’s support and a CNN report that the US is preparing to green light sending MLRS to Ukraine, the administration in Washington has been hesitant, worrying that the missiles - some of which have a range of 300 kilometers - might be used to strike deep inside Russia, according to CNN and others.

    A senior defense department official said Thursday that no decision had been taken, meaning even if the US goes ahead it would be weeks before any of the systems appear on the front lines.

    “Washington decided that Russia will not be allowed to prevail militarily, but it is doing that in a piecemeal fashion and there remains no consensus to deliver enough weapons, quickly enough to turn Ukraine’s defense to offense,” said Bielieskov. “Remember that although the Russians are being bled, so are we.”
    How's that Russian hold of Kharkiv going?

    Oh, wait, they lost it?

    So basically Russia is ping-ponging back and forth, unable to maintain ground as they both regain... and lose... territory.

    Well, seeing as they've held Russian advances to mostly successful degrees, your empty jeering of "WeLL WhY Do THeY neEd MoAR?" sounds a lot like "they were holding you back before with what they had, and now they'll be getting even more to kick your teeth in"


    You are simply losing access to information about Russia-China cooperation as they get out of public view.

    Only getting news about one side of things; never getting news about how it gets circumvented.
    Russia and China are totes besties, you just aren't hearing about it cuz nobody is saying it!

    Russia are the ones under a self-imposed informational embargo, not "the west"

    They're such good friends China wont let them land their airplanes at Chinese airports.

    You know, like friends do!

    How does 6th Sanctions Package going so far?
    ...clearly not everyone in Europe is prepared to suffer without being sufficiently compensated for their losses - or shoulder disproportionate burden.
    They figured out five OTHER sanction packages, so I'm under no illusion that they'll figure out another way to send your economy spiraling downwards even more.

    Oh, and as long as this continues, remember... Europe needs you even less and less, and the easier it gets for them to leave you behind.


    And speaking of which, how long is Russia prepared to suffer their "disproportionate burden" so that they can obtain... uhhh

    yeah, what is it, exactly, that Russia is getting out of this? If it's to weaken NATO... yeah, that failed tremendously. If you think Turkey is going to hold up Sweden and Finland's admittance after they get whatever shiny little toys they're after, I'm going to wager to say you're wrong.



    I know you like to block-cite articles hoping that by hitting people with walls of dubiously-relevant information you yourself probably didn't bother to read, you dissuade them from responding to you with the illusion that you made your point, but... hey, I can do that too! And I actually read these articles!

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/26/w...sanctions.html
    Gripped by heavy economic sanctions and increasingly isolated from Western suppliers, Russia worked on Thursday to keep its factories and businesses running and stave off a return to Soviet-era scarcity.

    As the central bank slashed interest rates again in an effort to prop up the economy, its chairwoman, Elvira Nabiullina, warned that the coming months would be “difficult for both companies and citizens” as the fallout on the Russian economy deepens more than three months into the invasion of Ukraine.

    The economic toll on Russia, though difficult to quantify, has spread widely, from its largest companies to its small shops and workers.

    Basic items, from paper to buttons, are in short supply. Prices of consumer goods have been soaring, with the inflation rate rising to 17.8 percent last month before dipping slightly. Sales in the lucrative energy sector, while still high, are projected to fall as European customers begin to pivot away from Russian oil. Airlines, cut off from Western manufacturers, are searching for spare parts.

    The Russian automaker Avtotor even announced a lottery for free 10-acre plots of land — and the chance to buy seed potatoes — so workers could grow their own food amid “the difficult economic situation.” The company announced the vegetable-farm giveaway after Western sanctions hobbled production at its assembly plant in Kaliningrad

    “I call what is happening now a horrible experiment,” Ivan Fedyakov, who runs Infoline, a market research firm in Russia, said in a telephone interview. “It has never happened in modern history when such a big and deeply integrated country would be so quickly and abruptly fenced off from the global economy.”

    The shortages and supply chain issues will only worsen, economists predict, as the West moves to turn Russia into an economic pariah. It is unclear what might reverse that tectonic shift, short of major changes in Moscow, analysts say, including the end of President Vladimir V. Putin’s rule.

    The central bank has been cutting interest rates faster than expected as the ruble has rapidly appreciated, reaching its strongest level in four years against the U.S. dollar this week. A strong ruble hurts exports and lowers government revenues from dollar-denominated energy sales.

    Yet even that rebound in the ruble is a sign of weakness, economists say, reflecting a sanctions-induced collapse in imports that, combined with a continued gusher of energy revenues, has sent the country’s current account soaring.

    “The economic prospects for Russia are especially gloomy,” the Bank of Finland said in an analysis this month. “By initiating a brutal war against Ukraine, Russia has chosen to become much poorer and less influential in economic terms.”

    Mr. Putin, in a tacit acknowledgment of the economic toll of the war, promised this week to increase the minimum wage, pensions and military benefits, even as he shrugged off the mass exodus of foreign firms since the invasion on Feb. 24.

    “Sometimes you look at those leaving and think, ‘Maybe thank God that they are,’” Mr. Putin said in a televised meeting on Thursday. “Our businesses and our manufacturers have grown up and will successfully find a place on ground prepared by our partners. Nothing will change.”

    Mr. Putin also lashed out at Western governments that are freezing Russian assets, including yachts and bank accounts linked to his inner circle. “Stealing others’ assets never ends well, primarily for those doing such wicked things,” he said in the meeting, according to the Interfax news agency.

    He dismissed as a trivial inconvenience a lack of luxury goods from European firms. Such items will be “a little more expensive,” he said, using the example of high-end Mercedes-Benz cars, but said that those who drove them previously would continue to drive them. They can be imported from anywhere, he said. “It doesn’t matter to us.”

    Despite the devil-may-care official attitude, nearly 1,000 companies have left Russia, including Nike, Reebok, Starbucks and McDonald’s, citing an untenable situation, as well as logistical and payment issues, among other reasons.

    Delivery paths that Russia relies on to import materials for products as diverse as cars, tampons and ceramic plates have been blocked by European countries. DHL, UPS and FedEx have refused to make deliveries in Russia for months.

    Companies such as Adobe and Oracle have suspended operations there, and there are concerns that Russia could soon run out of data storage space.

    Nino, a jewelry designer in Moscow who declined to give her full name for fear of reprisals, said that the clay she relied on had disappeared from the market because it is produced in Germany and in Ukraine’s embattled eastern Donbas region. The cost of the clay, she said, has shot up by 30 to 60 percent.

    “My jewelry is produced by a Russian company,” she said. “They are also suffering from a lack of materials. There are big difficulties with logistics. Either we don’t have what we need or it’s significantly more expensive.”

    Russia has avoided some economic pain, at least temporarily, because the European Union has not been able to overcome Hungary’s objections to a proposed oil embargo, which would be one of the toughest measures imposed by the West so far. But oil revenues are still expected to decline over time as individual countries reduce their dependence on Russian energy.


    On the battlefield, Russia’s ambitions are narrowing to three cities in the Donbas region, where it has made significant gains and could soon gain complete control. Yet, with the unexpectedly rapid depletion of its troops and equipment, some analysts expect the battle to be Russia’s last major offensive of the war.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ons-shortages/
    Russians face prospect of Soviet-style shortages as sanctions bite
    In aviation, a lack of crucial parts could ground much of the country’s fleet and make flying a game of ‘Russian roulette’

    Stung by Western sanctions, Russia is starting to devolve into a secondhand economy dependent on poor substitutes, where shortages are stirring memories of the consumer wasteland that was the Soviet Union.

    While it may be able to find new purveyors for some Western-made goods and components in friendly countries such as China and India, Russia is increasingly determined to make its own — returning to policies of import substitution that yielded a vast, if globally uncompetitive, industrial complex before the fall of the Berlin Wall.

    Already, Moscow is facing serious challenges.

    Unable to secure spare parts from Western airplane manufacturers, for instance, the Russian aviation sector is facing a crisis. About 80 percent of Russia’s commercial fleet consists of foreign-made planes, predominantly from Airbus and Boeing, both of which have stopped doing business with Moscow.

    Ural Airlines, which has over 50 Airbus planes, has projected that it can safely fly them for only a few months before it will need to start “cannibalizing” from other aircraft — permanently grounding some planes to strip them for parts. The low-cost airline Pobeda, part of the state-run Aeroflot group, has already reduced its fleet from 41 to 25 planes, using its grounded aircraft for “cannibalized” parts.

    The decision by Ericsson and Nokia to freeze business with Russia, meantime, has left cellular providers there suddenly scouring the world for used towers and parts to maintain and expand a network that had more or less kept pace with the United States and Europe. Even China’s Huawei appears reluctant to fill the gap, indefinitely delaying a Russian rollout of next-generation 5G technology, a service that providers had been testing before the Ukraine invasion.

    “Within five years, there will be a huge gap between Russia and in the rest of the world” on cellular service, said Grigory Bakunov, an expert on Russian technology.

    Following the recent exit of French automaker Renault, Russia is moving to restart production of the Moskvich — a Soviet-era make that went bankrupt two decades ago after failing to achieve foreign quality standards. Its resurrection, potentially with Chinese assistance, could either jump-start the production of domestic alternatives or see a new generation of clunkers clogging Russian roads.

    Supply disruptions, however, have hit not only assembly lines that rely on advanced technology but also those using imported materials. Sanctions “on the Russian Federation have practically broken all the logistics in our country,” Russian Transport Minister Vitaly Savelyev, conceded to journalists last weekend during a visit to Russia’s Astrakhan region.

    Under the hood of the Russian economy

    The ruble has rebounded since its initial swoon after sanctions were imposed in the winter, and Russian government coffers are flush from a bonanza of oil revenue. European countries have taken halting steps toward their pledge to curb reliance on Russia’s oil and gas, by far its largest exports, even as Moscow boosts sales to Asia.

    JPMorgan this month projected that the recession triggered by sanctions would be less sharp, if more drawn out, than had been predicted earlier. Some economic indicators, including electricity consumption, point to better-than-expected business activity.

    But look under the Russian hood and a grimmer picture comes into focus.

    Russia was never a standard-bearer for globalization. In a globalization ranking published last year by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Russia ranks 51st — behind Mauritius, Jordan and Ukraine. Following an initial wave of Western sanctions in 2014, after Moscow annexed Ukraine’s Crimea region, Russia turned inward, seeking to rely even more on domestic production.

    But that shift never really worked. Russia found some success in food production, reducing reliance on imports and satisfying more of its domestic demand. But a 2021 report from the Russian Central Bank found that 65 percent of domestic companies still required imports for manufacturing.

    Sanctions have now shut the door on a wide range of those crucial inputs. Though many have not been explicitly banned, their availability has vanished as foreign companies avoid the taint of doing business in Russia. For Russians, the prospect of diminished consumer choice and poorer quality harks back to a tragicomic era famously lampooned in a 1980s Wendy’s commercial that depicted a Soviet fashion show in which Russian “daywear,” “evening wear” and “swimwear” were all the same dull gray smock.

    “Especially for anything more sophisticated, they will have to rely on what they can produce, and they will use designs or templates that are maybe 10 or 20 years old,” said Tomas Malmlof, a senior scientist at the Swedish Defense Research Agency. “The technological gap [with the West] will become larger, and they will not be able to breach it.”

    Those industries requiring microchips and other difficult-to-acquire advanced technology are being hit the hardest. “Automobiles, tanks, hygiene products, even print paper. This is where you need microchips, but also specialized chemicals and other imports that Russia is having problems getting,” said Anders Aslund, an economist who has long studied Russia.

    Mass flight of tech workers turns Russian IT into another casualty of war

    In the aviation sector, even Russian-manufactured planes rely on critical Western-made components. Several Russian airlines operating Russia’s Sukhoi Superjet 100s have informed the government that they can no longer ensure proper maintenance of its French-Russian SaM146 engine. If a solution is not found quickly, the airlines have warned, most of their Russian-made fleets could be grounded by fall, the Russian business daily publication RBC reported.

    Even the most optimistic analysts say it could take at least a couple of years for Russia to develop assembly lines for commercial planes made almost exclusively with local components. Other analysts project it could take far longer, if it happens at all.

    “We don’t think on the commercial front it is particularly viable for them to, in the near or medium term, maintain or start the manufacture of competitive domestic civil aviation aircraft,” said a senior Biden administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal assessments.

    Before the invasion, most of Russia’s commercial fleet was leased from foreign companies: planes that Moscow seized in the aftermath of sanctions. Most of the planes had been registered in Bermuda and Ireland, where local inspectors certified their airworthiness. European aviation authorities have expressed alarm that Russian airlines have limited engineering and technical support to maintain the planes and that Russian inspectors lack necessary expertise.

    Some Russians are particularly concerned that Rosaviatsiya, Russia’s aviation regulator, has loosened rules on who can conduct aircraft maintenance now that Western companies are no longer able or willing to do it. The task will fall to local firms, whose capacity and training have been questioned by critics. Russia is beginning to issue its own certificates of airworthiness for planes, which had been largely determined by foreign inspectors.

    “Russia’s safety record was not stellar before, maybe at the level of Indonesia,” said aviation analyst Volodymyr Bilotkach. “But now, flying a Russian carrier is turning into a game of Russian roulette.”

    Shortages of American alcohol and Italian fabric

    In Moscow, business remains brisk at restaurants that feared just months ago that sanctions would force them to close. It is a sign, at least in the capital, that money from oil exports, and government steps to lower interest rates and raise wages and pensions have blunted the impact. Several establishments have sought to adapt by sticking to locally sourced foods. A bigger problem, though, is booze.

    Russian distributors estimated that the United States exported about 7 million liters of whisky, rum, gin and bourbon to Russia each year. To make up the shortfall, they are turning to smaller, lesser-known brands.

    “Even if all other cities in Russia are suffering and barely have bread to eat tomorrow, there will still be money in Moscow,” said a cocktail bar owner in Moscow, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized by his investors to discuss business matters. “Plus, people seem to have grown used to the situation. … My main problem right now is [the lack of] American alcohol.”

    Where goods are still available, they are often more expensive — which is helping fuel inflation at higher rates than in the West — or of poorer quality.

    “Look, I’ll be honest, if we need to sew a high-quality garment, we normally would go and buy a nice Italian fabric,” said the owner of a textile factory in the Moscow region, who spoke on the condition of anonymity out of fear of government reprisals. The company, she said, was still working with existing inventory of high-end fabric but was now weighing whether to switch to making cheaper clothing, or just shut down after stocks run out. “The quality of what’s available in Russia is just not on par,” she said.

    Cracks emerge in Russian elite as tycoons start to bemoan invasion

    Natalia, the owner of a Moscow logistics firm who declined to give her last name because she fears the government, described how sanctions were spurring price hikes. The ban on E.U. trucks entering Russia or Belarus means that goods traveling by land must now be offloaded at the border, then onloaded to new trucks that can travel into and across Russia. Meanwhile, flight bans had shut down a legion of air routes.

    “What happens? What do you think happens? The price goes up and up and up,” she said.

    Where possible, Russian manufacturers have tried to make up shortfalls by turning to Turkey and markets in Asia. But pandemic-related supply chain disruptions have hampered those efforts.

    In addition, many Russian assembly lines were designed using European or other Western technologies or materials in mind. “The assembly lines are sometimes dependent on French conveyor belts or bearings from the United States and Germany,” Natalia said. “That’s not as easy to change as you think.”

    Moreover, she said, essential parts for even run-of-the-mill businesses, including furniture and coffin makers, have also been affected because their foreign suppliers are reluctant or unwilling to provide export declarations certifying that those parts would not be used for military purposes.

    In the best cases, that means delays; what used to ship in two weeks now takes six weeks, she said. But some parts, such as industrial fan propellers and rubber seals used by Russian furniture makers as well as Russian defense industries — were being indefinitely held up.

    “Production won’t stop for shoes, clothing, sausages, those kinds of things, but we will go back to what Russia was like in the ’60s, ’70s, ’80s, where the quality is worse and the price is higher, when you can actually get the product,” she said.

    “I remember how, if you wanted a kitchen, you would have to go to the shop and get a number and stay in a queue,” she continued. “But not for hours or days. You’d sometimes wait half a year for a kitchen. I’m afraid those days are coming back.”
    And hey even if you call those "western propaganda," here's a source you saw fit to cite:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-09/russia-s-economy-facing-worst-contraction-since-1994

    Russia’s Economy Facing Worst Contraction Since 1994

    GDP may shrink 12% on sanctions, internal forecast shows
    Finance Ministry sees worse contraction than Economy Ministry

    Russia is facing the deepest economic contraction in nearly three decades as pressure from sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies mounts, according to an internal forecast by the Finance Ministry.

    Gross domestic product is likely to shrink as much as 12% this year, deeper than the 8% decline expected by the Economy Ministry, according to people familiar with the estimates who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. The government hasn’t released a public forecast since the invasion of Ukraine.

    The Finance Ministry issued a statement Tuesday saying the report of the forecast was inaccurate. “Preparation of official macroeconomic forecasts does not fall under the Finance Ministry’s authority,” it said, noting that it “expects that the measures taken by the government and the Bank of Russia will make it possible to ease to a large extent the negative consequences of sanctions and ensure stable economic development.”

    A 12% contraction would put the economic pain on par with the turmoil seen in the early 1990s, when Russia’s Soviet-era economy lurched toward capitalism with a contraction not seen since wartime.
    Big Price

    Russia's economy faces biggest contraction in decades

    Source: Federal statistics service for 1996-2021, World Bank for 1990-1995, 2022 forecast by Finance Ministry

    “The main negatives are the oil embargo, the EU giving up Russian gas, along with more departures among foreign companies,” said Natalia Lavrova, chief economist at BCS Financial Group in Moscow. “All that will probably expand gradually, with a lot of negative carrying over in to 2023.”

    Excluding those factors and based only on current sanctions, she forecasts a contraction of 10.8% in 2022 and about 5% in 2023.

    The Bank of Russia said April 29 it expects a contraction between 8% and 10% this year. The International Monetary Fund forecast one of 8.5%, while a Bloomberg survey of economists found a median decline of 10.3%.

    If the Finance Ministry’s forecast proves accurate, that would erase about a decade of economic growth, according to one person familiar with the forecasts.

    Uncertainty about the outlook remains very high as the war continues and the U.S. and its allies discuss further sanctions, including on key exports like oil, the people said.

    The press service at the Economy Ministry didn’t respond to a request for comment.
    Seems even your countrymen... let alone the rest of the world... don't have as rosy an image of Russia's situation as you seem to want to paint.

    But hey, you and your family and people you know will gladly suffer scarcity, inflation, and a foundering economy so that you can...


    So that... uh... so that what happens, exactly, again? What exactly is Russia supposed to get out of this that makes it worth it?
    Last edited by Kaleredar; 2022-05-28 at 04:15 AM.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  10. #20730
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    But non-instant win is still a win.
    I have a somber question for you, and for any patriotic Russian who is reading this.

    It took a full military defeat and an occupation for Nazi Germany to come to their senses, snap out of Nazism and turn into a peaceful prosperous country. Similar story for Japan. But because of MAD, the worst military outcome for Russia can be "we fought entire West and it ended in a draw". So how can Russian people snap out of "we're orcs from Mordor" Nazi mindset y'all are now? A powerful top-to-bottom reformer ala Gorbachov could possibly do it, but he doesn't exist right now, and how would he (or she) get into power? Looks grim to me.
    Quote Originally Posted by Nobleshield View Post
    It's not 2004. People have lives, jobs, families etc

  11. #20731
    The Unstoppable Force Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    I have a somber question for you, and for any patriotic Russian who is reading this.

    It took a full military defeat and an occupation for Nazi Germany to come to their senses, snap out of Nazism and turn into a peaceful prosperous country. Similar story for Japan. But because of MAD, the worst military outcome for Russia can be "we fought entire West and it ended in a draw". So how can Russian people snap out of "we're orcs from Mordor" Nazi mindset y'all are now? A powerful top-to-bottom reformer ala Gorbachov could possibly do it, but he doesn't exist right now, and how would he (or she) get into power? Looks grim to me.
    I don't normally post memes, but this is relevant:

    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  12. #20732
    Banned Hansworst's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaleredar View Post
    I don't normally post memes, but this is relevant:

    Now I finally have a face with all that drivel Shillcker's posting.

  13. #20733
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    I'm here exactly to see the other side.
    No you aren't, you are here to stir the pot with Russian propaganda and bullshit.

  14. #20734
    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    I have a somber question for you, and for any patriotic Russian who is reading this.

    It took a full military defeat and an occupation for Nazi Germany to come to their senses, snap out of Nazism and turn into a peaceful prosperous country. Similar story for Japan. But because of MAD, the worst military outcome for Russia can be "we fought entire West and it ended in a draw". So how can Russian people snap out of "we're orcs from Mordor" Nazi mindset y'all are now? A powerful top-to-bottom reformer ala Gorbachov could possibly do it, but he doesn't exist right now, and how would he (or she) get into power? Looks grim to me.
    The thing is - when West "reformed" Japan and Germany into democracies it poured unimaginable by modern standards economic preferences for them to that end.
    And that worked with Russia too - as long as Russia had seen economic benefits from "being seen as more democratic" it held on to trappings of democracy, opposition and all. "Fake it till you make it" strategy is perfectly fine if played long enough - it worked for plenty of Western and Asian countries that simply switch to more democratic arrangements once last dictator/junta dies or retires.
    But then West went with more antagonistic "West or Russia" binary choices for Ukraine rather then win-win arrangements, ramped up sanctions, and this calculation stopped making any sense.

    It is impossible to reform great powers from outside without defeat that can impose conditions on them. And MAD makes such defeat impossible in turn.

    So, yeah, you got to wait for reformer and sprinkle a lot of favors for decades before things turn around; negative sanctions simply never work if target isn't extremely eager to return to your "civilized family".

    So the only outcome in Ukraine is going to be conditions imposed upon it. And given Ukrainian losses - unless you see how it can turn things around - those conditions will get worse with each passing day as war continues.
    Last edited by Shalcker; 2022-05-28 at 05:47 AM.

  15. #20735
    It was Russia that decided it was either Russia or the West for Ukraine, so much so they started a war over it.

  16. #20736
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    It was Russia that decided it was either Russia or the West for Ukraine, so much so they started a war over it.
    Russia called for tripartite talks over Association Agreement that sparked Maidan the entire time; it was EU that refused them.

  17. #20737
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Russia called for tripartite talks over Association Agreement that sparked Maidan the entire time; it was EU that refused them.
    "Guys, Putin totally wanted to talk and not go to war. It's really your fault." Do you get tired of saying these things or is that troll farm paycheck just too good to pass up?

    Dontrike/Shadow Priest/Black Cell Faction Friend Code - 5172-0967-3866

  18. #20738
    No, i mean specifically Western sanctions against Russia - especially seizure of Central Bank assets.

    Which was done without any kind of UN vote.

    The One China policy is a propagandistic article of faith having to do with perceptions of legitimacy, not a mission statement. There is no actual drive to reclaim Taiwan nor does China have the capacity to do so.
    We'll see soon enough.

    Meanwhile China meets banks to discuss protecting assets from US sanctions and flies strategic bombers in joint mission with Russia over Pacific.

    Nah, they wouldn't; they kind of enjoy having ready access to the high quality semiconductors the Republic of China provides them.
    Same could be said about Russia; a lot of things override "modern conveniences", and "territorial integrity" (however China defines it) usually comes on top over that.

    As example see Ukraine being unwilling to let go of this dream right this very moment.

    Not seeing anything like that in your link.

    To say nothing of any emergent technologies that would cut into petrochemical or agricultural products reliant on fossil fuels.
    Right, magic technologies that will create matter from pure energy, sure.

    You could be generating natural gas from atmospheric CO2 and water! They have all the right elements! ...at x1000 cost.

  19. #20739
    Elemental Lord PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Russia called for tripartite talks over Association Agreement that sparked Maidan the entire time; it was EU that refused them.
    So, naturally an invasion of Donbas and Crimea was entirely justified, right?

    Oh, wait... no.

    And really, what business of it was Russia's to make demands? The EU continued to maintain a dialog directly with Russia, regardless.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  20. #20740
    Ukraine's numbers on estimated Russian casualties passed 30,000 today. 645 officers. Same deal as usual applies, grain of salt, etc. But geez, if that's even remotely true - and from the estimations made by other nations, it sure seems like it could be - that is insane. One man ordered thirty thousand of his own people to their deaths because of an inferiority complex.

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