Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

So Strelkov, the former FSB agent responsible for the separatist movement and current 'minister for defense for the DPR' has been chatting again. He very much wants Russia to win but keeps getting annoyed at the general incompetence of the Russian leadership (well, apart from here him that is). Anyway, according to him, the HQ for the DPR's 1st Army Corp was shelled and completely destroyed by the Ukrainians.

On top of that the Ukrainians claim to have liquidated the HQ of the 20th Combined Arms Army as well on the same day.

And in the last few days the Ukrainians have been targeting some major ammo dumps, some of which are deep in Russian controlled territory. Its almost like they are being fed intel on where exactly they all this is. One of them was the DPR's main ammo warehouse and chatter from them seems to indicate that the lose was so major that they will be unable to conduct offensive operations due to so much ammo being lost.

[Evil Midnight Bomber]

i mean i did say not everyone was with him in a previous post, but they're a minority. The difference is if putin backs out of ukraine, he won't be able to control the *overwhelming* amount of dissent then, see? Right now he's in control.

All his cronies, shills amongst the average populace, and mob connections are staking his victory and their chips on Ukraine's destruction/conquest.

Nah brah, see, you just said that the assassination attempts weren't because he won't back down in Russia...

So, if he's not being targetted for assassination because he won't back down in Ukraine...what's the reason to assassinate him? The people that want the war in Ukraine are getting what they want...so they have no reason to assassinate Putin.

You've kinda painted yourself into a corner here. Again.

[Shalcker]

It won't.

At least not as quickly as it will for Russia.

Russian inflation increase in May from previous month was 0.12%
That's lower then US inflation increase for same month.

- - - Updated - - -

Lithuania has banned the transportation of sanctioned goods via train between Russia and Kaliningrad. It means 40-50% of imports and exports to the enclave are now gone. Yeah, that is going to have some serious economic effects.

Sanctioned goods are certainly not going to be "50% of imports and exports" - given that they are not supposed to be sold in the first place.

Sea route remains open either way.

[Corvus]

Sanctioned goods are certainly not going to be "50% of imports and exports" - given that they are not supposed to be sold in the first place.

Sea route remains open either way.

The 40-50% figure comes from the governor of Kaliningrad himself. Take it up with him. It included coal, metals, construction goods and advanced technology.

[Shalcker]

Then they sure are running through that at an alarming rate. Someone previously linked that Russia had already run through a startling large percentage of its available tanks.

Ukraine even by their own estimates have lost more then West have given them so far, and nothing comparable is coming.

Main Western advantages - navy and airforce - are not in play in Ukraine at all. To get parity NATO would have to send every available artillery piece; and even then they would likely run out of ammo faster then Russia.

And I think it's disingenuous to say "we've had rusting surplus sitting around for years" equates to "we have years of stockpiles ready."

You just don't understand how big those stockpiles are from even back Soviet days... Ukraine was selling their own for 30 years non-stop and they still had plenty of them left today while doing only token production.

And is suffering enormous inflation as its economy is expected to contract by decades and slide into a brutal recession.

Recession this year, smaller drop next one, growth past that is current CBR estimate. It isn't going to be "decades"; and we'll see how brutal Western recession will be soon enough.

Because ultimately both of those things can be true. Russia can have a high trade surplus... and still have its economy shit the bed. In fact, that's what's actively happening.

My point is that Russian problems aren't with finance, and saying so is parroting points of people who are completely detached from reality - in fact Russian finance is healthiest ever.

Seeing as it's extremely difficult for them to trade that money in and out of Russia in any meaningful way, and they're taking the money with them...

You do realize there are capital controls in place that severely limit how much those "millionaires" can take out of Russia? They cannot just show up in bank and take everything with them.

The rest of the world isn't waiting around for Russia. It's going to move on. And that's ultimately the problem that everyone else has pointed out... the US, the EU, your bestest friend and pal in the world China... You're taking an enormous shot in the face to cripple yourself economically, and even if you're able to eventually dig yourself out of the hole you blew at your own feet... you're going to be climbing back out of it into a place the rest of the world left far behind.

It is going to be both West and Russia in that hole, and West certainly tries to drag everyone with them.

The EU is actively working on plans to alleviate their reliance on Russia. Again, you go on and on about the "immediate pain the EU/the west/NATO will suffer" whilst ignoring that pain happening to Russia right now. You assume that Russia in its pariah state will overcome these challenges... or somehow be ultimately hurt less by them... than the entire rest of the world, despite the rest of the world's ability to pivot around Russia to... any other country in the world.

So far it hurts less (see Estonian example). That can change, but that's reality for now.

Russia is trying to be more like the USSR, but they're doing so by becoming an alienated nation of scarcity, economic trouble and authoritarianism, instead of the global superpower they dream of being.

Scarcity of things that ultimately do not matter.

[PhaelixWW]

Russian inflation increase in May from previous month was 0.12%
That's lower then US inflation increase for same month.

That's just because you had a massive increase of 7.6% in March and 1.6% in April, compared to the 1.2% and 0.3% of the US.

You'd need a whole lot of months like that to make up some of that ground.

YoY, Russia is nearly twice the inflation of the US.

[Kaleredar]

Russia could have been the best country on Earth with the right choices made. It could have been so different. There was no need for it to become what it has.

A bloody rebellion followed by the leadership of a series of fear-ruling despots who oversaw a boom-and-bust temporary economic growth that killed millions of their countrymen through brutality, mass incarceration and starvation with a fear state that... never really shed the stink of that as it slid further into obscurity and more and more behind on a world stage was never really "prepped for success."

[fluffhead]

Russian inflation increase in May from previous month was 0.12%
That's lower then US inflation increase for same month.

- - - Updated - - -

Sanctioned goods are certainly not going to be "50% of imports and exports" - given that they are not supposed to be sold in the first place.

Sea route remains open either way.

So why do you guys feel the need to lock up your butter?

[Kaleredar]

Ukraine even by their own estimates have lost more then West have given them so far, and nothing comparable is coming.
Main Western advantages - navy and airforce - are not in play in Ukraine at all. To get parity NATO would have to send every available artillery piece; and even then they would likely run out of ammo faster then Russia.

You just don't understand how big those stockpiles are from even back Soviet days... Ukraine was selling their own for 30 years non-stop and they still had plenty of them left today while doing only token production.

And yet it's been enough to founder Russia effectively in place.

Recession this year, smaller drop next one, growth past that is current CBR estimate. It isn't going to be "decades"; and we'll see how brutal Western recession will be soon enough.

That's not what... well, everyone else is saying.

Russia's economy is effectively predicted to lose decades of economic growth.

The EU is not. The US is not. Just Russia.

My point is that Russian problems aren't with finance, and saying so is parroting points of people who are completely detached from reality - in fact Russian finance is healthiest ever.

You have a single stream of income that one of your major buyers is making plans towards eliminating.

That is the entirety of your "finance" right now.

You do realize there are capital controls in place that severely limit how much those "millionaires" can take out of Russia? They cannot just show up in bank and take everything with them.

They're also leaving with any capitol they would have created through their business and investments.

It is going to be both West and Russia in that hole, and West certainly tries to drag everyone with them.

Russia is the one digging the hole, not "the west."

Like, i think you massively overestimate how committed to this whole endeavor anyone but Russia and Ukraine are, but you're pitting this in terms of "Russia versus the west."

As far as the US is concerned, annoying gas prices and an expansion to NATO is all that's happened because of this. The annoying gas prices will eventually go away like they always do. The NATO expansion... that's far more permanent.

Europe will hurt temporarily more because of the energy dependence they're slowly weaning themselves off of. But they will do it.

So far it hurts less (see Estonian example). That can change, but that's reality for now.

Estonia is one country. In a network of a whole bunch more. Russia has isolated itself from the majority of the rest of the world, and it's right up there with Estonia.

Scarcity of things that ultimately do not matter.

Like... microchips, military hardware, telecommunications equipment, computers... you know, things relevant to keep Russia as a 21st century country.

And let me highlight once more... that's the opinion of the US. That's the opinion of the EU. That's the opinion of China.

So your Russian opinion of "Russia will be fine according to Russia" seems very, very hollow.

[Edge-]

So why do you guys feel the need to lock up your butter?

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=207488360985730

For what it's worth, this doesn't appear to be new. This is a post from 2020, so this seems "normal" for Russia.

[YUPPIE]

What positive happens if Putin dies, though? I notice a lot of people chanting for his death through cancer or assassination hoping things settle down after, but not considering the dead man’s switch theory, what would stop the reins going to someone like Lavrov? You know, the guy mostly making the nuke threats and being most loyal.

[Crispin]

And yet it's been enough to founder Russia effectively in place.



That's not what... well, everyone else is saying.

Russia's economy is effectively predicted to lose decades of economic growth.

The EU is not. The US is not. Just Russia.



You have a single stream of income that one of your major buyers is making plans towards eliminating.

That is the entirety of your "finance" right now.



They're also leaving with any capitol they would have created through their business and investments.



Russia is the one digging the hole, not "the west."

Like, i think you massively overestimate how committed to this whole endeavor anyone but Russia and Ukraine are, but you're pitting this in terms of "Russia versus the west."

As far as the US is concerned, annoying gas prices and an expansion to NATO is all that's happened because of this. The annoying gas prices will eventually go away like they always do. The NATO expansion... that's far more permanent.

Europe will hurt temporarily more because of the energy dependence they're slowly weaning themselves off of. But they will do it.



Estonia is one country. In a network of a whole bunch more. Russia has isolated itself from the majority of the rest of the world, and it's right up there with Estonia.



Like... microchips, military hardware, telecommunications equipment, computers... you know, things relevant to keep Russia as a 21st century country.

And let me highlight once more... that's the opinion of the US. That's the opinion of the EU. That's the opinion of China.

So your Russian opinion of "Russia will be fine according to Russia" seems very, very hollow.

I don't think he grasps it tbh.

Russia is digging the whole, and the west is simply making sure they do not get out of it. Rising gas prices and inflation are nothing but an annoyance, but really not that bad imho, I personally think it's a good tradeoff for a move to green powersources faster, despite Germany burning coal in the transition.

I do however not warm with gas, but oil is replacable for the majority of industries. Some products are up in prices, but some are down in prices like fish, rice vegetables etc.

Add how the wealthy westernes obviously deal alot better with price hikes, than the poor russians. It's a cheap price to pay, to watch Russias dream of grandeour fall apart, and Putin and his ilk go down in history like amateur nazis.

And it seems that Russia is now selling their oil 30% lower than market place, the Russian gas station is having a flash sale.

[Kaleredar]

I don't think he grasps it tbh.

Russia is digging the whole, and the west is simply making sure they do not get out of it. Rising gas prices and inflation are nothing but an annoyance, but really not that bad imho, I personally think it's a good tradeoff for a move to green powersources faster, despite Germany burning coal in the transition.

I do however not warm with gas, but oil is replacable for the majority of industries. Some products are up in prices, but some are down in prices like fish, rice vegetables etc.

Add how the wealthy westernes obviously deal alot better with price hikes, than the poor russians. It's a cheap price to pay, to watch Russias dream of grandeour fall apart, and Putin and his ilk go down in history like amateur nazis.

And it seems that Russia is now selling their oil 30% lower than market place, the Russian gas station is having a flash sale.

And moreover I think the issues that the US is facing economically aren't due to Russia's war, or the sanctions, they just make them a bit more pointed.

But Russia seems to think that it's "bringing the west (including the US and EU) low" by... getting thousands upon thousands of Russians killed, while not a single US or EU military person sees a day of combat.

[Crispin]

And moreover I think the issues that the US is facing economically aren't due to Russia's war, or the sanctions, they just make them a bit more pointed.

But Russia seems to think that it's "bringing the west (including the US and EU) low" by... getting thousands upon thousands of Russians killed, while not a single US or EU military person sees a day of combat.

Yeah, day by day, we see how toothless the Russian military is. I have no issue whatsoever, paying the equivilant of 20 cent more for a liter of milk for it.

When this is all over, Europe will have found other sources of energy, and Russia will have lost it's largest and richest customer. The long term damage to Russia is irreparable. Remove the majority of their energy income, and they're poor as fuck.

[Shalcker]

That's just because you had a massive increase of 7.6% in March and 1.6% in April, compared to the 1.2% and 0.3% of the US.

You'd need a whole lot of months like that to make up some of that ground.

YoY, Russia is nearly twice the inflation of the US.

Russia has many problems but inflation is already under control, and measures to alleviate previous price increases for vulnerable population are already in pipeline.

Meanwhile West is set for many months of increasing prices as energy hikes work their way through manufacturing chains.

[Specialka]

Russia has many problems but inflation is already under control, and measures to alleviate previous price increases for vulnerable population are already in pipeline.

Meanwhile West is set for many months of increasing prices as energy hikes work their way through manufacturing chains.

Btw, how are you living the facts about the famine that Russia is creating in the world and particularly in Africa ?

[PhaelixWW]

Russia has many problems but inflation is already under control, and measures to alleviate previous price increases for vulnerable population are already in pipeline.

Meanwhile West is set for many months of increasing prices as energy hikes work their way through manufacturing chains.

That's some pretty strong Russky copium, there. Both of those statements are pure bullshit.

[YUPPIE]

Btw, how are you living the facts about the famine that Russia is creating in the world and particularly in Africa ?

The problem with that is nations are still *buying* the food/grain they've stolen and are using it as leverage. What the world and those nations should be doing is declaring ALL-OUT FUCKING WAR AND ATTACK RUSSIA FOR SUCH A CRIME AGAINST HUMANITY but complacency and kowtowing just fuel the notion they can starve the world and indiscriminately kill god knows how many, millions(?) more, and not go punished.

Same with oil, but that's worse because it's not as necessary as food, if at all.

The mass starvation tactic should be the kind of event where all of humanity corners Russia in a massive joint effort like with Hitler vs most of the world.

But we're not doing anything because it feels as though the ultra-right-wing that enables Putin is what the world majority is now, and Biden has FAILED to champion democracy and the US military might by playing coy with Putin instead of just killing him and reforming Russia like Imperial Japan.

Like people don't seem to grasp at how horrible this food blockade is even when considering Russia's current crimes against humanity. It's the kind of action where there should no longer be "redemption" or an out for the enabler. And yet Biden continues to say Putin should have an exit if he simply surrenders.

[Corvus]

Btw, how are you living the facts about the famine that Russia is creating in the world and particularly in Africa ?

Something something it's all the west's fault something something you made us do it something something we have plenty of stolen food so who cares.

[MCMLXXXII]

Tweek role-playing

So should we nuke him?