Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Specialka]

Ukraine started from desperate move of banning every capable man from leaving the country; it keeps desperately asking for more heavy weapons too. Ukrainians, like in that WaPo article upthread, get sent to front lines after shooting 30 bullets "to save costs" without any training.


In Russian case expanding age range gets newly-retired military back - people who already have experience and might only need little refresher, if any.

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People have seen Western equipment in action, and outside of "best hits compilations" it performs quite badly too.

Reality isn't as good as advertised! So shocking! /s

Or the toll is so huge that they need to call back older people to drive those T62 to battle.

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Ukraine started from desperate move of banning every capable man from leaving the country; it keeps desperately asking for more heavy weapons too. Ukrainians, like in that WaPo article upthread, get sent to front lines after shooting 30 bullets "to save costs" without any training.


In Russian case expanding age range gets newly-retired military back - people who already have experience and might only need little refresher, if any.

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People have seen Western equipment in action, and outside of "best hits compilations" it performs quite badly too.

Reality isn't as good as advertised! So shocking! /s

Not really though ? I mean Western equipment have beaten every piece of russian equipment and we did not send planes or actual western tanks.

[Forogil]

Let's watch and make notes.

I have made notes of the predictions you have made and linked so far; starting from your first and third posts in this thread (next up is your fourth post; which explained why Russia shouldn't attack before NS2 was approved as it would threaten the project whereas NS2 itself would weaken Ukraine more; it seems not even Russia is listening to you).

To put it mildly they don't match reality - have you changed the way you make them yet?

[Shalcker]

Not really though ? I mean Western equipment have beaten every piece of russian equipment and we did not send planes or actual western tanks.

If i show you videos of Ambrams being blown up by Kornet, does that mean Ambrams is "beaten" and would be useless against Russians?

"Every piece of equipment" can be destroyed or disabled with certain hits. If you shoot thousands each day you could get one lucky video a day even if 999/1000 fail.

[Vorkreist]

Let's watch and make notes.

Is that May 9 major victory celebration still going ?

Talking about spur into real action , US and EU sends more and bigger weapons every day and a military mission to unblock Ukrainian ports is considered.
The degenerate terrorist actions of Russia push the west closer to a direct confrontation. Fuck around and find out some more.

[Santti]

You know, I wish we made our own "special operation", and went and kicked the "nazis" out of Ukraine.

All these weapon deliveries is great, but enough is enough. If helping Ukraine is not good enough of an incentive, then to help get trade with Ukraine back to normal, for our own sake.

[PhaelixWW]

Ukraine started from desperate move of banning every capable man from leaving the country

Ukraine, as the victim of aggression from a much, much larger country, is easily forgiven their smell of desperation.

Russia, as the laughable "military superpower" and the instigator of this attempted genocide... not so much.

People have seen Western equipment in action, and outside of "best hits compilations" it performs quite badly too.

Russian losses in that regard exceed Ukrainian losses. I'm pretty sure the equipment is not nearly as comparable as you'd like to pretend it is.

[CostinR]

Beyond the usual pissing war involving anything @Shalcker posts the reality is that Ukraine is facing a fairly desperate situation over the last few days in the east.

Given recent Russian troop advances, you can check them out on Livemap or here: https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/vi...Ukraine/091194, it seems like Ukraine is going either be forced to withdraw from their last holdings in Luhansk or face encirclement of several brigades worth of troops in the east.

If you wish to know why Tom Cooper on medium has the answer: https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/uk...22-58432b03f40

The Russian military doctrine emphasises bypassing urban areas while on advance: if defended, these are to be isolated by foremost units (‘first echelon’) and then invested by troops of the ‘second echelon’. With other words: outflanked and besieged, if necessary, but not assaulted by advancing units.

So far in this war, we’ve seen next to nothing of this. On the contrary, the Russians are all the time rushing to capture every village and town, regardless how minor, and regardless of losses. Nominally, at least, this was ‘logical’, considering Putin’s illusions about Ukrainians not being keen to fight, and the RFA receiving the order to bring as much of Ukraine under control within the shortest possible period of time, while all the time operating at the end of critically thin supply links. With other words: it needed roads to keep its troops supplied. And, well, roads are usually connecting urban areas: nobody is constructing them from nowhere to nowhere…

Unsurprisingly, the Ukrainian tactics was to convert every place into a ‘fortress’: entrench where buildings are providing additional protection — and defend. With the RFA violating its own doctrine so often, it’s even less surprising this caused it shameful failures and catastrophic losses as we’ve seen, for example, in the area north-west of Kyiv, in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Izium, not to talk about Severodonetsk, Popasna, and especially in Rubizhne (this time I’m talking about Rubizhne north of Severodonetsk).

Well, after all of this, somebody there in Moscow came to his senses, and the RFA is now back to its original tactics — apparently with quite some success.

Also this

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/uk...2-9b21e72d911e

The RFA is fighting in battalion tactical groups, and these BTGs have a minimal capability to keep themselves supplied. For this purpose, each of tactical armies (every tactical army is controlling between 2–3 and 20 BTGs) has its own supply brigade. The number of such highly-specialised units is very limited: I think there are only 10–12 in all of the RFA, and they rely on trucks. However, this is not as important as it might appear because the RFA is even more dependent on the use of railways to keep its troops supplied. Not sure about the total number of railway brigades of the RFA, but think to recall reading there are about 20 of these.

In this war so far, the shortage of supply brigades resulted in a situation where every single tactical army was capable of simultaneously supporting the advance by only one BTG. But, in the Popasna area, the RFA is running an offensive involving some 5–6 BTGs.

How comes?

It’s simple. Contrary to the situation elsewhere in Ukraine, there is a excellent railway network in the Kadiivka-Alchevsk area, only 30km east of Popasna — i.e. in the area controlled by the Separatists already since 2014.

Moreover, by taking Popasna and then Volodymyrivka, the Russians have secured an additional branch of railway, which they can now connect to the system in the Kadiivka-Alchevsk area.

Pay attention: the RFA advance from Popasna on Vrubivka is run along another branch of railway, too.

With other words: the way this operation is run, they can bring their supplies by train straight to the frontlines. No need to try doing that by truck convoys: not only is the RFA meanwhile critically short on trucks, but its truck convoys remain one of primary targets for the Ukrainian artillery.

‘Problem solved’, and then a crucial problem — that of logistics. This is why the RFA is proving as capable of successful offensive operations in the Popasna area: its artillery can continue blasting Ukrainian positions day and night, the Guards’ Terminators can’t run out of ammo for their 30mm guns…

[Kaleredar]

Beyond the usual pissing war involving anything @Shalcker posts the reality is that Ukraine is facing a fairly desperate situation over the last few days in the east.

Given recent Russian troop advances, you can check them out on Livemap or here: https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/vi...Ukraine/091194, it seems like Ukraine is going either be forced to withdraw from their last holdings in Luhansk or face encirclement of several brigades worth of troops in the east.

If you wish to know why Tom Cooper on medium has the answer: https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/uk...22-58432b03f40



Also this

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/uk...2-9b21e72d911e

Ukraine is receiving influxes of new equipment and trained men. Russia has taken cities that Ukraine has then been able to retake.

Russia has failed to solve domestic production and economic problems that are clotheslining it’s already hobbled military. I don’t doubt that they’ll be able to eek out some success by throwing men at the problem, but the systemic issues that they’ve been facing and that by all accounts have been deepening have not been alleviated.

Plus… rail lines can be destroyed.

[Gaidax]

Ukraine is receiving influxes of new equipment and trained men. Russia has taken cities that Ukraine has then been able to retake.

Russia has failed to solve domestic production and economic problems that are clotheslining it’s already hobbled military. I don’t doubt that they’ll be able to eek out some success by throwing men at the problem, but the systemic issues that they’ve been facing and that by all accounts have been deepening have not been alleviated.

Plus… rail lines can be destroyed.

I think that's an overly rosy outlook there.

What will happen is that Russia will take most of Donbas, dig in and then it will be a long war of attrition until there will be some sort of political breakthrough.

The initial Russian idiocy has ended and they have concentrated now on getting what they actually can and they absolutely can take Donbas as it is now.

On Ukrainian end, the weapon shipments that matter will take another month the least to arrive and be deployed - then it remains to be seen if Ukraine can actually push Russians out of positions they have taken. Both Kherson and Mariupol, aren't going to just fall over and it will be city battles with huge losses there both military and civilians. And it's not even Donbas.

Assuming Ukrainian counterattack happens in July, as I see it - absolutely best case scenario would be liberation of Kherson and maybe some smaller parts of Donbas, but that's about it.

Then it will turn into a huge war of attrition that can last almost indefinitely until Russia will be forced to withdraw and who knows when that will come. Maybe it will happen once Putin croaks or is deposed in a year or two and maybe not even then - depending on who be the successor.

[CostinR]

I think the war of attrition part is absolutely real. We're likely looking at a long war lasting several years that will absolutely leave significant devastation in it's wake and we're likely going to see a global economic and food crisis as a result.

[Gaidax]

I think the war of attrition part is absolutely real. We're likely looking at a long war lasting several years that will absolutely leave significant devastation in it's wake and we're likely going to see a global economic and food crisis as a result.

It is almost a sure scenario, unless some sort of miracle happens.

I simply don't see it any other way, because realistically Ukraine is not geared to push Russia out of Donbas, let alone Crimea.

I also wonder how long financial and military support for Ukraine will last - will US really be able to afford or more importantly explain to its citizens another few dozen billions USD package for Ukraine once the current runs out at around October? That especially given what looks like a start of global economy downturn. And right before US midterm elections happen?

Same goes for EU, which will be further saddled with complicated realities of energy dependency that won't really go anywhere upcoming winter.

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In short Russia is fucked, but I don't think Ukraine is in much better position either. They both will dig in and do their war of attrition because they have no capacity to kick each other out and not enough logistics and money to do so.

Overall - the time will still work for Ukraine, because I do believe Putin has 2 years left max before he's out of the picture and then maybe successor will decide to cut their losses and pretend it was all "that guy there".

[Corvus]

The amount of money the US has sent to Ukraine is a rounding error for them.

[Gaidax]

The amount of money the US has sent to Ukraine is a rounding error for them.

This does not matter. What does matter is perception and the noise is already starting, especially given the inflation and energy crisis.

US midterm elections coming when? November? Imagine US lawmakers approving another $40b a month before - yup, not gonna happen.

[Corvus]

Beating the Russkies is one of the few things that unified both sides of US politics.

And it is easy to point out that inflation is caused by Russia's attack, so a few dollars spent beating them will help.

Besides, the US is rich enough to support Ukraine with a few dollars and support its populace.

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Reports are coming in that the Ukrainians have kicked off something near Kherson and have driven the Russians back there.

[Kaleredar]

This does not matter. What does matter is perception and the noise is already starting, especially given the inflation and energy crisis.

US midterm elections coming when? November? Imagine US lawmakers approving another $40b a month before - yup, not gonna happen.

The US population is in pretty staunch support of Ukraine. Most criticism of Biden on the situation is that he's not doing enough to aide Ukraine, not that the US is doing too much or shouldn't be helping.

US media has been demonizing Russians in one way or another for a good... oh, 70 years now. A few Putin lap dogs like Trump and Cucker aren't going to change that perception in just a few years. Russia lost the messaging part of the war the moment they invaded, and have never been able to come back on it.

If the war has a negative impact on Biden/the democrats it'll be in ways in which the GOP try and not connect it to the war... i.e, they'll complain that Biden is causing rising fuel prices or causing inflation or stock market unrest because "he's a democrat and his liberal policies are failing," and certainly not "because he's involved us in a conflict with Ukraine by supporting them and has caused supply chain issues by levying sanctions against Russia." That latter point is far too nuanced and invites far more discussion than the GOP wants their audience thinking about. So they'll stick to the age-old "if something is going wrong under a democrat president, it's because they're a democrat and Jesus hates them."

The US funded its wars in the middle east for decades, and that involved sending in actual US service men and women who took the risk of dying to fight a nebulous foe with nebulous goals. But the US' involvement in Ukraine? Literally just handing equipment off to Ukraine for them to blow up the invading Russians. A much easier sell.

[Corvus]

Kremlin insiders are reportedly saying there are plans for a second offensive against Kyiv and that they expect full victory before the end of the year because they will grind Ukraine and the West down and that Europe will tire of supporting Ukraine and come crawling to Russia for consessions.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05...own-in-the-end

[Kaleredar]

Kremlin insiders are reportedly saying there are plans for a second offensive against Kyiv and that they expect full victory before the end of the year because they will grind Ukraine and the West down and that Europe will tire of supporting Ukraine and come crawling to Russia for consessions.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05...own-in-the-end

That sounds shockingly like their initial plan for Ukraine.

[Iphie]

Kremlin insiders are reportedly saying there are plans for a second offensive against Kyiv and that they expect full victory before the end of the year because they will grind Ukraine and the West down and that Europe will tire of supporting Ukraine and come crawling to Russia for consessions.

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05...own-in-the-end

To be fair 4 days ago Meduza reported that the Kremlin was very pessimistic about the war, so I'd take it with a little caution, either way.

[Corvus]

To be fair 4 days ago Meduza reported that the Kremlin was very pessimistic about the war, so I'd take it with a little caution, either way.

There probably are elements in the Kremlin that are pessimistic but as long as Putin and his sycophants are in charge it matters little, and the recent minor success in the Donbas seems to have encouraged them.

[zealo]

It is almost a sure scenario, unless some sort of miracle happens.

I simply don't see it any other way, because realistically Ukraine is not geared to push Russia out of Donbas, let alone Crimea.

I also wonder how long financial and military support for Ukraine will last - will US really be able to afford or more importantly explain to its citizens another few dozen billions USD package for Ukraine once the current runs out at around October? That especially given what looks like a start of global economy downturn. And right before US midterm elections happen?

Same goes for EU, which will be further saddled with complicated realities of energy dependency that won't really go anywhere upcoming winter.

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In short Russia is fucked, but I don't think Ukraine is in much better position either. They both will dig in and do their war of attrition because they have no capacity to kick each other out and not enough logistics and money to do so.

Overall - the time will still work for Ukraine, because I do believe Putin has 2 years left max before he's out of the picture and then maybe successor will decide to cut their losses and pretend it was all "that guy there".

I can guarantee you the US military industrial complex will not get tired of lobbying the US government for continuing to send aid to Ukraine by October.

The likes of Raytheon were wanking furiously when they heard the term lend-lease get used by the US government.