1. #20801
    Field Marshal Kante's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gaidax View Post
    I think that's an overly rosy outlook there.

    What will happen is that Russia will take most of Donbas, dig in and then it will be a long war of attrition until there will be some sort of political breakthrough.

    The initial Russian idiocy has ended and they have concentrated now on getting what they actually can and they absolutely can take Donbas as it is now.

    On Ukrainian end, the weapon shipments that matter will take another month the least to arrive and be deployed - then it remains to be seen if Ukraine can actually push Russians out of positions they have taken. Both Kherson and Mariupol, aren't going to just fall over and it will be city battles with huge losses there both military and civilians. And it's not even Donbas.

    Assuming Ukrainian counterattack happens in July, as I see it - absolutely best case scenario would be liberation of Kherson and maybe some smaller parts of Donbas, but that's about it.

    Then it will turn into a huge war of attrition that can last almost indefinitely until Russia will be forced to withdraw and who knows when that will come. Maybe it will happen once Putin croaks or is deposed in a year or two and maybe not even then - depending on who be the successor.

    The last thing the Russians want is Ukrainian retake of the North Crimean canal that started funneling water into Crimea in the early stages of the war after the dam was destroyed by Russian troops, despite Russian claims of overcoming the shortages since the capture of Crimea, the cultivation areas dropped massively due to shortages of water, they will most likely go all out to prevent a large chunk of territory to remain without sufficient water supply, AGAIN.

  2. #20802
    According to a german article I've seen earlier, Russia attacks farms, farmers and their equipment specificially. They also steal them and send them to Russia.
    The pictures seem to confirm that story. Their "harvest" are bombs and rockets this year.
    Great... if it wasn't obvious already with the demand to lift sanctions for grain, Russia tries to weaponize hunger now. Despicable...

    I've seen the satellite images of them stealing crops/grain but this is even worse since it shows that they consider these farms that are like 20 miles away from any frontline as worthwhile targets.
    Last edited by KrayZ33; 2022-05-29 at 08:07 AM.

  3. #20803
    Brewmaster Iphie's Avatar
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    Zelenskiy: no military solution in Crimea, other lost territory

    Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has expanded - a little - on his earlier assertion that Donbas would remain in the country’s hands, despite the furious onslaught by Russia’s military forces in the region.

    Tonight, he said that he didn’t believe all the land seized by Russia since 2014, which includes Crimea, could be recaptured militarily.

    In a television address late Saturday, Reuters reported, Zelenskiy thanked Ukraine’s forces for holding out in Donbas, and repeated his belief that Moscow would come to the negotiating table if his country seized back all the land taken by Russia since its 24 February invasion.

    But he ruled out going further and attempting to retake Crimea and other territory lost since the Russian invasion there in 2014 by force:

    I do not believe that we can restore all of our territory by military means. If we decide to go that way, we will lose hundreds of thousands of people.

    Zelenskiy acknowledged that the situation in Donbas, where Russia has claimed to have taken control of the strategically important town of Lyman and encircled Sievierodonetsk, was challenging:

    It’s indescribably difficult there. And I am grateful to all those who withstood this onslaught.

    The Ukraine president added that he expected “good news” on weapons supplies next week, but did not give further details."
    I found this on one of those live blogs from the Guardian.

    Seems that the Ukrainian goals are: Kick out russia as much as possible, try to negotiate Crimea and the rest at some point in the future, and he seems to allude to enormous, and unacceptable, escalation if the Ukrainians try to reach their goals militarily.

  4. #20804
    Quote Originally Posted by KrayZ33 View Post
    According to a german article I've seen earlier, Russia attacks farms, farmers and their equipment specificially. They also steal them and send them to Russia.
    The pictures seem to confirm that story. Their "harvest" are bombs and rockets this year.
    Great... if it wasn't obvious already with the demand to lift sanctions for grain, Russia tries to weaponize hunger now. Despicable...

    I've seen the satellite images of them stealing crops/grain but this is even worse since it shows that they consider these farms that are like 20 miles away from any frontline as worthwhile targets.
    Well it isn't the first time russia commits genocide on Ukrainians via weaponized famine.

  5. #20805
    Quote Originally Posted by KrayZ33 View Post
    According to a german article I've seen earlier, Russia attacks farms, farmers and their equipment specificially. They also steal them and send them to Russia.
    The pictures seem to confirm that story. Their "harvest" are bombs and rockets this year.
    Great... if it wasn't obvious already with the demand to lift sanctions for grain, Russia tries to weaponize hunger now. Despicable...

    I've seen the satellite images of them stealing crops/grain but this is even worse since it shows that they consider these farms that are like 20 miles away from any frontline as worthwhile targets.
    There also was feel-good story earlier in the war about John Deere equipment that was taken from Ukrainian dealership and ended up in Chechnya being remotely disabled... or maybe you're talking about same thing? That probably didn't do much in the end as circumvention of this particular American tech is well-known.

    Farms seem to be working just fine in occupied areas around Kherson and Melitopol; hard to see how Russia would impact areas where they never were around too.
    Last edited by Shalcker; 2022-05-29 at 09:06 AM.

  6. #20806
    Over 9000! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    TheGuardian: Russia given up on Kyiv but diplomat insists it was never a target
    Kelin says that Russia has given up on Kyiv in response to Myrie’s question, “yes, I think,” he says.

    He adds that none of Russia’s leaders, including Vladimir Putin have ever said they wanted to seize Kyiv.

    “I don’t believe it is possible to seize Kyiv or occupy Kyiv, it is a big big city.”

    Myrie asks why troops were in the region near the capital if they never had any intention of occupying or taking it, saying he saw them himself.

    We did have troops, but not for the seizure of Kyiv. I’m not a military person, I am not a diplomat, but even I understand that if you want to do things on one front, you have to do different things on another.

    “We didn’t have a goal of seizing Kyiv at the initial stage. I don’t believe that’s a possibility.”
    So, uh... those Russian troops were in northern Ukraine, near Kyiv... not to actually capture Kyiv, but to... "do different things"?

    Seems like Russia is suggesting that the war crimes were the actual point of the northern push. And I guess that 40km convoy stuck in mud was just a huge distraction, huh?


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  7. #20807
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Kremlin insiders are reportedly saying there are plans for a second offensive against Kyiv and that they expect full victory before the end of the year because they will grind Ukraine and the West down and that Europe will tire of supporting Ukraine and come crawling to Russia for consessions.

    https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05...own-in-the-end
    That's not going to be happening - the most Russia can take and hold is Donbas and Mariupol. And I have doubts they would be able to hold Kherson for long too.
    All my ignores are permanently filtered out and invisible to me. Responding to my posts with nonsense or insults is pointless, you're likely already invisible and if not - 3 clicks away. One ignore is much better than 3 pages of trolling.

  8. #20808
    Over 9000! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Haha, right on cue:

    TheGuardian: Claims of war crimes in Bucha a 'fabrication', says Russian ambassador to UK
    On to Bucha, the town near Kyiv, where there was evidence Russian forces committed war crimes against civilians. Clive Myrie shows aerial footage roughly two weeks apart showing dead bodies on Bucha’s streets.

    “Is this how Russian troops are supposed to conduct this war. It suggests they are committing war crimes,” Myrie says.

    Andrei Kelin says that for three days after Russian troops left there was no evidence of any dead bodies. “Can you imagine any professional troops, they will step over dead bodies and just leave them? I cannot believe this, it is unprofessional.”

    “In our view, it is a fabrication. It is used to interrupt negotiations. There were, at the beginning of the conflict, we had very good negotiations. The Ukrainians have had a constructive position, and then it changed, someone has used this situation to cut off that negotiation, and there is now a stalemate.”
    "No... wait, what? I said we were there to 'do different things'. But, uh... not those things. Definitely not those things. We would never do those things. All those dead Ukrainians in the streets... those mass graves seen by satellite while we were still occupying the area... yeah, we definitely were busy doing other things and that wasn't us. Totes, furreal. You believe us, right?

    ...

    Want to buy some oil?"


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

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  9. #20809
    Brewmaster Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PhaelixWW View Post
    TheGuardian: Russia given up on Kyiv but diplomat insists it was never a target

    So, uh... those Russian troops were in northern Ukraine, near Kyiv... not to actually capture Kyiv, but to... "do different things"?

    Seems like Russia is suggesting that the war crimes were the actual point of the northern push. And I guess that 40km convoy stuck in mud was just a huge distraction, huh?
    There is a, somewhat valid, military argument: Having troops threaten Kyiv, even if you have no intent of capturing it, means that Ukrainian troops are tied up in the defense, which means they can't go anywhere else. Now I'm not saying that was the objective, but that's what he could eb alluding to.

  10. #20810
    You know your war is going bad when you have to "recruit" senior citizens to fight for you.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...9f2838975f4b2b

    Putin signs law scrapping military age limit in Russia, allowing over-40s to join and fight in Ukraine

    Vladimir Putin on Saturday signed a law removing an upper age limit on the Russian military, meaning over-40s can now serve.

    The law was passed just over three months after Russia invaded Ukraine, amid heavy Russian losses said to be limiting its ability to fight.

    The invasion, which Putin and his inner circle expected to be swift and decisive, instead proved protracted and deadly for Russia.

    Western officials estimate that some 15,000 Russians have been killed. Ukraine on Saturday claimed to have killed 30,000, while Russia has not given recent figures of its own.

    The new law carries no specific upper age limit, allowing anybody of "normal working age" to fight, according to Russia's Novaya Gazeta newspaper.

    The proposal was passed by Russian lawmakers earlier in the week and Putin's signature means the measure is now a law.

    Lawmakers who argued in favor of removing the age limit said it would help recruit specialist troops such as doctors and engineers.

    UK intelligence officials recently said Russia's losses have caused serious problems for its invasion, now focused on Ukraine's eastern Donbas region.

    In one update, they said personnel problems had forced Russia to rely on mercenaries and irregular forces like militants from Chechnya rather than its main army.

    In another, they predicted that commanders would rush exhausted troops back into fighting after capturing Mariupol without properly resting or re-equipping them, which is likely to lead to more deaths.

    Ukraine has long accepted older fighters into its military. As part of its general mobilization as the invasion began, the country banned all men aged 18 to 60 from leaving in case they were needed to fight.

    After weeks of apparent stasis in the attacks on the Donbas, Ukrainian officials have in recent days conceded that Russia is gaining ground.

  11. #20811
    Herald of the Titans Vorkreist's Avatar
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    https://ca.news.yahoo.com/putin-canc...164929127.html

    Vladimir Putin has cancer but won't "die tomorrow", a Ukrainian intelligence official has reportedly claimed.

    Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, told Ukrainian news outlet Pravda that the Russian president has "several illnesses".

    He told the outlet: "Yes, we fully confirm this information, that Putin has cancer.

    "He has several serious illnesses, one of which is cancer.
    Thoughts and prayers for our little hitler.
    Its weird to think russians would let someone clearly impaired by severe ilnesses make such catastrophic decisions. They're all completely insane.

  12. #20812
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    There also was feel-good story earlier in the war about John Deere equipment that was taken from Ukrainian dealership and ended up in Chechnya being remotely disabled... or maybe you're talking about same thing? That probably didn't do much in the end as circumvention of this particular American tech is well-known.

    Farms seem to be working just fine in occupied areas around Kherson and Melitopol; hard to see how Russia would impact areas where they never were around too.
    That "story" was a video. You can see the bombs in the river, the explosions in the fields. Farming equipment hit by shells and bullets. Halls with the equipment being bombed and half destroyed. This was in Mykolajiw

    I wonder what you are trying to say though. You still didn't adress what you think about Russia bombnig the theatre that killed up to 600 civilians btw. Are you trying to say they shoot their own equipment for fun or something? Are you still trying to paint a picture that russia isn't blocking grain and ports? Even though they themselves load and ship it out of Ukraine?

    Why don't you just disappear from here? Everyone hates you anyway - what's your purpose?
    What do you even mean when you say that Farms seem to be working fine in occupied areas around Kherson?
    It took me 5 seconds to google that this isn't the case. And we aren't talking about a loss of 10-20% efficiency here. They are killing their own cows to get something to eat for their employees because they get absolutely no support in occupied Kherson. They don't get anything to feed the cattle with either. And the russian army seizes diesel, so they can't even properly use their equipment.

    https://www.rferl.org/a/life-in-occu.../31823429.html
    Last edited by KrayZ33; 2022-05-29 at 10:56 AM.

  13. #20813
    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    There is a, somewhat valid, military argument: Having troops threaten Kyiv, even if you have no intent of capturing it, means that Ukrainian troops are tied up in the defense, which means they can't go anywhere else. Now I'm not saying that was the objective, but that's what he could eb alluding to.
    Oh, it is a sound military tactic but we know that wasn't what they were doing as some Russian troops have admitted they were told their job was to be patrolling the streets if Kyiv after it was occupied at the start of the war.

  14. #20814
    Elemental Lord Santti's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KrayZ33 View Post
    According to a german article I've seen earlier, Russia attacks farms, farmers and their equipment specificially. They also steal them and send them to Russia.
    The pictures seem to confirm that story. Their "harvest" are bombs and rockets this year.
    Great... if it wasn't obvious already with the demand to lift sanctions for grain, Russia tries to weaponize hunger now. Despicable...

    I've seen the satellite images of them stealing crops/grain but this is even worse since it shows that they consider these farms that are like 20 miles away from any frontline as worthwhile targets.
    Maybe they got traumatized by farming equipment stealing their tanks?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ransath View Post
    Money laundering, especially prior to his election? I couldn't give a flying fuck.

  15. #20815
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    Oh, it is a sound military tactic but we know that wasn't what they were doing as some Russian troops have admitted they were told their job was to be patrolling the streets if Kyiv after it was occupied at the start of the war.
    Lets not forget that according to Macron, Putin denies, *laughs* and says everything is instigated and fake when he talks to him about this war and about warcrimes and such. And Putin seems to have said while talking to him that he plans to seize *all* of Ukraine.
    Obviously, we don't know what exactly has been said but I simply see no reason to not trust the words of Macron here.

    To me... Putin has long lost his sanity and is the defacto Hitler of this decade.

  16. #20816
    Quote Originally Posted by KrayZ33 View Post
    That "story" was a video. You can see the bombs in the river, the explosions in the fields. Farming equipment hit by shells and bullets. Halls with the equipment being bombed and half destroyed. This was in Mykolajiw
    There are no firefights in Nikolaev for equipment to be damaged by bullets.
    Ukrainian army often tries to hide in same areas (there isn't much cover around farmlands for heavy weapons which isn't also used as cover for agricultural equipment) which causes them to get targeted.

    I wonder what you are trying to say though. You still didn't adress what you think about Russia bombnig the theatre that killed up to 600 civilians btw.
    Eyewitness reports from the building say it was Azov installing explosives - and even urging people to not leave shelter below before the blast. 600 deaths also ended up unconfirmed - shelter there held up. There are other eyewitness reports from other areas of Mariupol that this tactic was used more then once - blaming everything on Russians even when locals can clearly see where everything comes from. I guess Ukraine was fighting PR battle, and they needed the pictures early.

    Single blast, only one strike is not how Russian aviation or artillery generally operates - you can check hits acknowledged by both sides to see the difference.



    Are you still trying to paint a picture that russia isn't blocking grain and ports? Even though they themselves load and ship it out of Ukraine?
    Ukraine blocked their own port in Odessa to prevent amphibious landing.

    Yes, Russia isn't blocking ports at the moment.
    Ukraine Latest: Russia Pledges to Open Sea Corridors, Kyiv Wary
    Russia said it’s opening corridors for shipping from seven Ukrainian ports amid growing international criticism of an unfolding global food crisis triggered by its blockade. Kyiv warned that security issues could still prevent free passage.
    ...
    Humanitarian maritime corridors from Black Sea and Sea of Azov ports including Odesa will operate from 8 a.m. to 7 p.m. daily, Mikhail Mizintsev, a Defense Ministry official said according to an emailed statement. But shipments may not begin moving quickly because Ukraine would have to remove its mines after seeking assurances of protection from Russia’s Black Sea fleet.


    (note that it's a bit cheeky as Russia currently controls entire Sea of Azov coastline)
    Why don't you just disappear from here? Everyone hates you anyway - what's your purpose?
    My purpose is to see flaws in my own arguments and reasoning by getting them attacked.

    That's from end of April, we're already month ahead, things are starting to get better there.

  17. #20817
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    My purpose is to see flaws in my own arguments and reasoning by getting them attacked.
    So you’re beta testing messaging before taking it to bigger platforms. Good to know.

  18. #20818
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Eyewitness reports from the building say it was Azov installing explosives - and even urging people to not leave shelter below before the blast. 600 deaths also ended up unconfirmed - shelter there held up. There are other eyewitness reports from other areas of Mariupol that this tactic was used more then once - blaming everything on Russians even when locals can clearly see where everything comes from. I guess Ukraine was fighting PR battle, and they needed the pictures early.

    Single blast, only one strike is not how Russian aviation or artillery generally operates - you can check hits acknowledged by both sides to see the difference.
    Lmao.
    What a big pile of *bullshit*
    There is absolutely no proof for that propaganda whatsoever.

    It seems like you fail to realize that you have no longer a free press that isn't controlled by the state.
    Everytime anyone says anything *slightly* anti-russian in terms of "maybe this isn't a good idea, maybe we should stop this war for the sake of peace" etc. pp. they will literally face punishment.
    Whatever you can dig up is worth absolutely *nothing*.
    You are a waste of time when it comes to the discussion of this topic. Your side of things is completely unreliable and isn't worth shit.
    Last edited by KrayZ33; 2022-05-29 at 12:44 PM.

  19. #20819
    Quote Originally Posted by KrayZ33 View Post
    Lmao.
    What a big pile of *bullshit*
    There is absolutely no proof for that propaganda whatsoever.
    What do you see as proof of damage to theater being aviation bomb, as claimed by Ukraine?

    Can each and every eyewitness that ended up on Russian side or remained in Mariupol lie for any reason? Sure.
    Can Mariupol mayor - source of most Western "news about Mairupol", who immediately fled the city back in February - also lie? Definitely. After all, he is in Ukraine and Ukrainian SBU doesn't look kindly at those who try to contradict their narratives to the media.
    Last edited by Shalcker; 2022-05-29 at 12:47 PM.

  20. #20820
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    What do you see as proof of damage to theater being aviation bomb, as claimed by Ukraine?

    Can each and every eyewitness that ended up on Russian side or remained in Mariupol lie for any reason? Sure.
    Can Mariupol mayor - source of most Western "news about Mairupol", who immediately fled the city back in February - also lie? Definitely. After all, he is in Ukraine and Ukrainian SBU doesn't look kindly at those who try to contradict their narratives to the media.
    First and formost it's Russia themselves that said the building was occupied by Azov and that's why they bombed it, before they spun it into a completely different direction.
    Your country also has a history of using these bullshit false flag arguments and using paid actors.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/theres...d-in-slovyansk
    https://www.stopfake.org/en/russian-...ifferent-sets/

    And I don't think you got or understood that part that any anti-russian statement will get you into *serious* trouble.
    Last edited by KrayZ33; 2022-05-29 at 01:02 PM.

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