Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shrouded]

Imagine being a Russian Colonel-General going to work one day only to be told you're going to be put in charge of the shit show that is the Ukrainian invasion, with the expectations of producing a victory where the others before you could not.

I can't imagine even one of them does not worry about that every night before going to bed.

[Forogil]

Half the Russian separatist fighters are wounded or dead.

That does not seem like a fully accurate headline - yet.

Half of the original force is lost; but since they are neither part of Russia nor "officially occupied" they can conscript new forces there.

[Deus Mortis]

Who supplies arms and munitions? Hint: You're part of that alliance.

I know your banned and can't reply even though you wouldn't to begin with, but you do know that Russia has been a major supplier of heavy vehicles to Ukraine right.

[Makabreska]

Imagine being a Russian Colonel-General going to work one day only to be told you're going to be put in charge of the shit show that is the Ukrainian invasion, with the expectations of producing a victory where the others before you could not.

I can't imagine even one of them does not worry about that every night before going to bed.

Oh, I bet they are worried. Those who are still alive, that is.

[Gorsameth]

Imagine being a Russian Colonel-General going to work one day only to be told you're going to be put in charge of the shit show that is the Ukrainian invasion, with the expectations of producing a victory where the others before you could not.

I can't imagine even one of them does not worry about that every night before going to bed.

Declare you will personally bring victory, drive to Ukraine to 'take charge'. Don't stop when you reach the Russian lines and instead surrender and seek political asylum.

[Iphie]

Imagine being a Russian Colonel-General going to work one day only to be told you're going to be put in charge of the shit show that is the Ukrainian invasion, with the expectations of producing a victory where the others before you could not.

I can't imagine even one of them does not worry about that every night before going to bed.

Worried, terrified, what's the difference. This will eventually breed a lot of resentment though, as the leadership gets purged and scapegoated. Same with the security services.

At some point that tension will give, and I'm not sure how that will work out, but the last time Russian Imperial leadership made mistakes on this scale there was a little scuffle in October.

[DarkTZeratul]

Imagine being a Russian Colonel-General going to work one day only to be told you're going to be put in charge of the shit show that is the Ukrainian invasion, with the expectations of producing a victory where the others before you could not.

I can't imagine even one of them does not worry about that every night before going to bed.

I was reading a book recently about the French Revolution, and this is exactly what it was like. They launched a series of wars to "liberate" other countries from their "oppressive governments," and when a general failed to immediately bring victory, they decided that the only possible explanation was that he was insufficiently devoted to the cause, brought him home, chopped his head off, gave the job to someone else, and presumably pointed at the last guy while ironically saying "no pressure."

[Corvus]

Seems like no one has been able to positively identify the kamikaze drone that hit the Russian oil refinery. Best guess seems to be an 8K Chinese drone bought through alibaba, which is kind of ironic. 8k for doing a lot of damage to an oil refinery seems a fair trade.

The other question is how they got it there. There closest Ukrainian controlled territory is 300 km away, so it would have had to fly through a lot of Russia air defence in the first place, not to mention how it was controlled. Unless it had satellite links, which the chinese model doesn't come with, then it would require someone nearby to be controlling it.

[Kallisto]

Seems like no one has been able to positively identify the kamikaze drone that hit the Russian oil refinery. Best guess seems to be an 8K Chinese drone bought through alibaba, which is kind of ironic. 8k for doing a lot of damage to an oil refinery seems a fair trade.

The other question is how they got it there. There closest Ukrainian controlled territory is 300 km away, so it would have had to fly through a lot of Russia air defence in the first place, not to mention how it was controlled. Unless it had satellite links, which the chinese model doesn't come with, then it would require someone nearby to be controlling it.

So an insurgent?

[Corvus]

So an insurgent?

Nobody seems to know and nobody is taking responsibility either. Some are thinking they may have installed a starlink into it to control it but that is just conjecture.

[Belize]

Ahhh, peace and quiet, finally.

[Corvus]

Before and after satellite vision of the large warehouse housing Russian munitions Ukraine took out the other day with a Tochka-U strike. Its simply gone. And the surrounding neighborhood has taken some major damage as well. That was one big explosion with a lot of munitions now gone.

[Crispin]

Read this from a soldier from my country, who at first fought north of Kyiv with ex US and French soldiers, now fighting in Donbass.

Just a small part of it, pointing out how Russia advance is stopped.

Translated with google translate

Holding back
Around the clock, artillery shells strike in and around the village. In 24 hours, they count 500 drops a day, Mike says over the phone from Ukraine. The soldiers seek shelter in fruit cellars, shooting holes and shattered buildings. Mike talks about one of the countless times they grab their weapons and go back into position:

It's 1 o'clock at night. The artillery shelling has stopped shortly before, and an outpost may have spotted movement at one of the approach roads to Berostov.

Mike and his people scout with their thermal binoculars as far as they can down the gravel road. The areas around the road are densely mined. Suddenly, the sound of several powerful engines can be heard across the night-quiet landscape. Seconds later, several four-wheel drive vehicles leap onto the horizon.

Shoulder-borne rockets
Mike holds his people back. The enemy must pass a wild fence of trees so they can not escape and hide. The wait feels endless. The sign is given and there is a bang and a hiss from several antitank weapons being fired. The shoulder-bearing rockets hit their target perfectly. The front, center and rear vehicles of the high-speed column are hit.

- They can neither come forward nor back, and it creates the perfect panic among them. At the same time, they are pulled free of the tree line, so they can not retreat into hiding either. The rest of the work makes our light machine guns, he says.

Sweaty and burnt out, the four-wheel drive is left on the road next to many other scars and remnants of the war. During the period, the Russians try to occupy the city in eastern Ukraine several times a day. With the powerful cars, they will quickly enter the city and spread out and make a bridgehead until their heavier and slower tanks and armored personnel carriers can come forward and help conquer the rest of the area.

[Flarelaine]

So in russan propaganda media, Putin is considered a saint that brings peace.

He makes sure Ukrainians can rest in peace.

- - - Updated - - -

I was reading a book recently about the French Revolution, and this is exactly what it was like. They launched a series of wars to "liberate" other countries from their "oppressive governments," and when a general failed to immediately bring victory, they decided that the only possible explanation was that he was insufficiently devoted to the cause, brought him home, chopped his head off, gave the job to someone else, and presumably pointed and the last guy while ironically saying "no pressure."

Natural selection at its finest.

Incidentally, the Royal Navy also executed an admiral after it was established he was not aggressive enough in attacking the French. The time that followed was arguably the most glorious for the Navy, producing legends like Nelson. It also helped that whenever enemies spotted British ships they could know with certainty those would go for the throat.

- - - Updated - - -

Seems like no one has been able to positively identify the kamikaze drone that hit the Russian oil refinery. Best guess seems to be an 8K Chinese drone bought through alibaba, which is kind of ironic. 8k for doing a lot of damage to an oil refinery seems a fair trade.

The other question is how they got it there. There closest Ukrainian controlled territory is 300 km away, so it would have had to fly through a lot of Russia air defence in the first place, not to mention how it was controlled. Unless it had satellite links, which the chinese model doesn't come with, then it would require someone nearby to be controlling it.

Military-grade air defense and radar systems were not conceived with drones in mind. Due to their size and lower speed, they can literally fly below the radar.

[Iphie]

Seems like no one has been able to positively identify the kamikaze drone that hit the Russian oil refinery. Best guess seems to be an 8K Chinese drone bought through alibaba, which is kind of ironic. 8k for doing a lot of damage to an oil refinery seems a fair trade.

The other question is how they got it there. There closest Ukrainian controlled territory is 300 km away, so it would have had to fly through a lot of Russia air defence in the first place, not to mention how it was controlled. Unless it had satellite links, which the chinese model doesn't come with, then it would require someone nearby to be controlling it.

So, wait, what you're saying is that it is a commercially available CHINESE drone that's been used? AND it could have been a local attack?

[Corvus]

So, wait, what you're saying is that it is a commercially available CHINESE drone that's been used? AND it could have been a local attack?

The former is more likely than the later. This seems to be the drone people think it was. I'd say it is still likely the Ukrainians did it somehow, as locals wouldn't need a drone so big to do any damage. But fog of war an all that.

[Ulmita]

Russia May Win The War In Ukraine


https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/...ar-in-ukraine/

It is time to strip off the rose-colored glasses much of the West has worn when looking at Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and acknowledge the cold, hard truth: the Russians are on course to win. The longer we traffic in the fiction that Ukraine still has a chance, the more Ukrainian civilians will be killed, the more cities will be destroyed, and the higher the probability that Russia seizes yet more territory before a negotiated settlement can end the fighting – potentially including Kyiv. You’d never know that, however, listening to high-ranking current and former officials in the West.

Ukraine to stand a chance, needs more western weapons, heavy weapons (long range artilery and aircrafts to be more precise). Without such weapons, and in big quantities, Ukraine will lose this war and it will lose it in a few months (if not earlier) from now.

It all boils down to if we, as EU / US, want to risk a direct war with Russia. I say that because Russia had made it clear, that it will do whatever it needs to be done, to win this war. I personaly believe that such war would be catastrophic for all parties involved and the only winner would be China.
And please dont start but "Russia is bad brah". According to international law an invasion is "legal" if it is authorized by UNSC or if your country gets attacked. Russia's invasion is fully illegal and not justifiable, but so it was the bombing of Yugoslavia by NATO, Iraq's invasion by US/UK etc. The "demonization" of Russia by the west, is weird especially since the West is leading in count of such wars.

[postman1782]

Russia May Win The War In Ukraine


https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/06/...ar-in-ukraine/





Ukraine to stand a chance, needs more western weapons, heavy weapons (long range artilery and aircrafts to be more precise). Without such weapons, and in big quantities, Ukraine will lose this war and it will lose it in a few months (if not earlier) from now.

It all boils down to if we, as EU / US, want to risk a direct war with Russia. I say that because Russia had made it clear, that it will do whatever it needs to be done, to win this war. I personaly believe that such war would be catastrophic for all parties involved and the only winner would be China.
And please dont start but "Russia is bad brah". According to international law an invasion is "legal" if it is authorized by UNSC or if your country gets attacked. Russia's invasion is fully illegal and not justifiable, but so it was the bombing of Yugoslavia by NATO, Iraq's invasion by US/UK etc. The "demonization" of Russia by the west, is weird especially since the West is leading in count of such wars.

From the comments of that bullshit RT level source, he has been pushing that line since the war started. He hasn't been right. No one should listen to Russian bots.

[Ulmita]

From the comments of that bullshit RT level source, he has been pushing that line since the war started. He hasn't been right. No one should listen to Russian bots.

Hahaha, who ever doesn't agree with you, is a "Russian bot"? Ok child...

And as for the bullshit RT level source, you obviously have no clue what you're talking about.

Will a United States Senator qualify as a source for you, or is that bullshit, "RT level crap" too?

[KrayZ33]

Is this even a suprise? I have no idea why someone would disagree with this.
Without western support, one of the poorest nations in europe that, a decade ago, didn't even have a working military at all, will probably lose a war with what the world did assume was, a global-superpower.

It's a suprise already that it takes this long and the reason why most people consider Russia to be relatively ("relatively" is the important distinction here) weak now.
So "obviously" Ukraine will lose this war if the west doesn't support it with tech and supplies. There is an argument to be made that it would already have happened without the support.

If Russia thinks "supporting" is reason enough for a "declaration of war" it just shows how fucked up things have become for them.
This wasn't a problem in the past when these powers did their proxy wars all over the place.
Russia wouldn't want war with anyone else, they can't even handle their "operations" in Ukraine. It's just a bluff and in my opinion, there is little risk in terms of escalations