Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Shrouded]

grim stuff looks really bad.

Ukraine probably can't afford to be untactical with its assets but if they have a spare HIMARS they should bang Belograd

It was an ammo dump.
It was a military command post.
It was used by the Azov battallion.
It wasn't hit by a missile, the footage has been doctored.
And by the way, Russia didn't do it, this was clearly Ukraine bombing itself.

Take your pick of the above or just make something up yourself - Russia will always find an excuse to kill civilians, one is as "good" as the other. It's a war of terror and the Russian war machine needs to be disassembled. I'll always be grateful to Ukraine for their part in doing so, and shamed at the high price they're forced to pay for it.

[Iphie]

grim stuff looks really bad.

Ukraine probably can't afford to be untactical with its assets but if they have a spare HIMARS they should bang Belograd

As much as that might be deserved three things:

1. Ukraine must under NO circumstances hit civilians on purpose.
2. If they fire at russia they'll violate their promise to the US.
3. russia might react very badly to that. (read: will react badly)

Now I know you don't care about russias response so #3 isn't that important to you, but numbers 1 and 2 are important as that might change the help that comes in. Also, I'm pretty sure the only way they could hit Belgorod would be by putting those HIMARS relatively close to the frontline, no sense in exposing them.

[Arrashi]

It was an ammo dump.
It was a military command post.
It was used by the Azov battallion.
It wasn't hit by a missile, the footage has been doctored.
And by the way, Russia didn't do it, this was clearly Ukraine bombing itself.

Take your pick of the above or just make something up yourself - Russia will always find an excuse to kill civilians, one is as "good" as the other. It's a war of terror and the Russian war machine needs to be disassembled. I'll always be grateful to Ukraine for their part in doing so, and shamed at the high price they're forced to pay for it.

It was a Nazi mall full of Nazi shops where Polish and American Nazi mercenaries were buying their nazi merch.

[zealo]

As much as that might be deserved three things:

1. Ukraine must under NO circumstances hit civilians on purpose.
2. If they fire at russia they'll violate their promise to the US.
3. russia might react very badly to that. (read: will react badly)

Now I know you don't care about russias response so #3 isn't that important to you, but numbers 1 and 2 are important as that might change the help that comes in. Also, I'm pretty sure the only way they could hit Belgorod would be by putting those HIMARS relatively close to the frontline, no sense in exposing them.

Ukraine probably isn’t too keen on breaking promises to their single biggest provider of military goods at the moment either.

Even if they might have a desire to give Russia a bloody nose back home, I can’t see them taking that risk at least not with the current situation.

[Iphie]

Ukraine probably isn’t too keen on breaking promises to their single biggest provider of military goods at the moment either.

Even if they might have a desire to give Russia a bloody nose back home, I can’t see them taking that risk at least not with the current situation.

Exactly, that's why I mentioned it. I don't see them hitting anything inside russia unless that russia is *newly* minted russia, in other words, should russia annex the Donbass then Ukraine might say that's a legitimate target, but anything that was considered russia by russia before February 24th this year I don't think they'll hit.

[Forogil]

Can you source your maps? No?

Another map!

https://alekswis.files.wordpress.com...t-23-06-34.png

The reddish areas are 25%-74%...How many of those numbers between 25 and 74 are less than 50?

In case someone actually wants to know:

The 2001 Census has 6 of those 7 areas with less than 50% Russian mother language speakers, and 5 of them with >50% with Ukrainian as mother language. (The easter-most region has more Russian, the western-most has neither as majority but more Ukrainian-language speakers.)

So as usual a simple fact-check fails.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Langua..._Ukrainian.svg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Langua...01_Russian.svg

And to repeat a great speech about language:

...Today, across the border of every single African country live our countrymen, with whom we share deep historical, cultural, and linguistic bonds. At independence, had we chosen to pursue states on the basis of ethnic, racial, or religious homogeneity, we would still be waging bloody wars these many decades later. Instead, we agreed that we would settle for the borders that we inherited, but we would still pursue continental, political, economic, and legal integration. Rather than form nations that looked ever backwards into history with a dangerous nostalgia, we chose to look forward to a greatness none of our many nations and peoples had ever known...

[Morgarw]

At this point i consider Russia at the same level of Nazi German. I support a massive intervention of Nato, including nuclear bombs, stealth aircraft bomber, laser weapon and space attack. Even if it will cost milions of people dying in west.

[Corvus]

It was an ammo dump.
It was a military command post.
It was used by the Azov battallion.
It wasn't hit by a missile, the footage has been doctored.
And by the way, Russia didn't do it, this was clearly Ukraine bombing itself.

Take your pick of the above or just make something up yourself - Russia will always find an excuse to kill civilians, one is as "good" as the other. It's a war of terror and the Russian war machine needs to be disassembled. I'll always be grateful to Ukraine for their part in doing so, and shamed at the high price they're forced to pay for it.

And we have a winner. RuSSias UN representative is saying it is a staged provocation, like Bucha.

- - - Updated - - -

Interesting report on just how well Russia's economy isn't going. To the end of April, exports to Russia from sanctioning countries fell by 60% and from non-sanctioning countries by 40%. A study of Chinese exports to the end of May shows they were still well down compared to pre-war levels. And while the ruble may be stronger than previously, it is because they have money coming in from oil and gas sales but they are unable to spend that money, even in non-sanctioning countries.

Without access to imports, Russia's economy is going to struggle, with manufactures shutting down and laying off staff. It is already happening in the automaker industry, due to lack of western supplied parts. Domestic vehicle sales in May dropped 84% for AvtoVAZ and 57% for GAZ compared to last year.

[Mihalik]

It does appear as expected that finally the Russians have altered tactics and are having more success with gains on the ground recently. They are really following a Russian textbook war of attrition with Ukraine now, happy to throw bodies at the front for modest gains knowing their soldiers and equipment are more replaceable than Ukraine's. It's a dark approach that will take a long time to win if successful, but it is true that Ukraine is probably going to have a harder time resupplying troops and equipment as the war drags on.

Frankly the Russian tactic right now seems to be to completely level any town/city/village in their way with artillery.

And when I say level, I mean level. To the point it's all rubble and there's nothing left to defend.

It's a very cynical tactic. But it worked for them in Grozny and Syria, so they are doing it in Ukraine.

I truly question tho, what is the point? There's nothing left, the population almost completely evacuated, there's no infrastructure left, no industry, no economy. All they are getting is land, not something Russia is necessarily in short supply of.

This is some WW1/WW2 total war shit.

I legitimately don't understand what is the endgame here. Nobody in Moscow raising his hand and asking -What is this going to cost us?

[Kallisto]

And we have a winner. RuSSias UN representative is saying it is a staged provocation, like Bucha.

It would have been more believable if they just said "We were aiming for the rail depot next door that was being used to ship NATO weapons to the front line and we missed." and 3rd party nations (those neither aligned with Russia or NATO) might have actually accepted that excuse since Russian missiles don't have accuracy anymore since they've come close to using up their best weapons..

- - - Updated - - -

Frankly the Russian tactic right now seems to be to completely level any town/city/village in their way with artillery.

And when I say level, I mean level. To the point it's all rubble and there's nothing left to defend.

It's a very cynical tactic. But it worked for them in Grozny and Syria, so they are doing it in Ukraine.

I truly question tho, what is the point? There's nothing left, the population almost completely evacuated, there's no infrastructure left, no industry, no economy. All they are getting is land, not something Russia is necessarily in short supply of.

This is some WW1/WW2 total war shit.

I legitimately don't understand what is the endgame here. Nobody in Moscow raising his hand and asking -What is this going to cost us?

I don't think even Putin knows what the endgame is anymore. Maybe it's just Donbass and keeping Crimea "safe" (From a Russian perspective). Maybe it's still all of Ukraine somehow. Either way I'm not even sure a full mobilization will get them what they need anymore.

[Lanrefni]

Frankly the Russian tactic right now seems to be to completely level any town/city/village in their way with artillery.

And when I say level, I mean level. To the point it's all rubble and there's nothing left to defend.

It's a very cynical tactic. But it worked for them in Grozny and Syria, so they are doing it in Ukraine.

I truly question tho, what is the point? There's nothing left, the population almost completely evacuated, there's no infrastructure left, no industry, no economy. All they are getting is land, not something Russia is necessarily in short supply of.

This is some WW1/WW2 total war shit.

I legitimately don't understand what is the endgame here. Nobody in Moscow raising his hand and asking -What is this going to cost us?

The endgame is Russia gets all of Ukraines gas deposits,no people or towns to interfere is a bonus.

[PhaelixWW]

I truly question tho, what is the point? There's nothing left, the population almost completely evacuated, there's no infrastructure left, no industry, no economy. All they are getting is land, not something Russia is necessarily in short supply of.

They get unimpeded access to the Black Sea. They get access to the resources in Ukraine (and more importantly, they deny them to the West). They get to claim a "victory", hollow as it may be. They get "lebensraum", a buffer from the West. They get to avoid having the Russian people see their once-close cousins in Ukraine prosper through association with the West. They get a renewed boogeyman in NATO and the West, who they'll claim have conspired to break the Russian spirit with sanctions.

In short, they're desperate, and they're trying to maintain their relevance in terms of oil production, and their grip on the Russian people.

They're unlikely to achieve most of those goals, however.

[DarkTZeratul]

I truly question tho, what is the point? There's nothing left, the population almost completely evacuated, there's no infrastructure left, no industry, no economy. All they are getting is land, not something Russia is necessarily in short supply of.

It helps if you remember that they want Ukraine, but they don't want Ukrainians. It may just be land, but it's extremely valuable land--both in terms of the resources it contains and the location it's in.

[Lahis]

I legitimately don't understand what is the endgame here. Nobody in Moscow raising his hand and asking -What is this going to cost us?

Genocide of Ukrainian people, no matter the cost.

[Corvus]

Snake Island has been hit yet again. Released video shows multiple large explosions across it, which the Ukrainians say destroyed a Pantsir air defence system.

Its probably true because Russia immediately denied everything, saying they had shot down a SU-25 and 12 missiles and that they had suffered no casualties and taken no damage. I mean, you can see things blowing up in the video. Russia ain't even trying to lie convincingly anymore.

[qwerty123456]

Snake Island has been hit yet again. Released video shows multiple large explosions across it, which the Ukrainians say destroyed a Pantsir air defence system.

Its probably true because Russia immediately denied everything, saying they had shot down a SU-25 and 12 missiles and that they had suffered no casualties and taken no damage. I mean, you can see things blowing up in the video. Russia ain't even trying to lie convincingly anymore.

At this point Ukraine should rename it Many Russian Ghosts Island or some shit.

[Kallisto]

I'm surprised with how many strikes on the island it hasn't become Snake archipelago.

[Iphie]

It would have been more believable if they just said "We were aiming for the rail depot next door that was being used to ship NATO weapons to the front line and we missed." and 3rd party nations (those neither aligned with Russia or NATO) might have actually accepted that excuse since Russian missiles don't have accuracy anymore since they've come close to using up their best weapons..

Why try to spin it as an oops when you can try to shift the blame? Again time honoured russian tactic, wasn't me, it was the previous guy/my cousin/my brother/that dude on the other side of the world.

Edit: so they actually did it, they took halfhearted responsibility by saying they aimed for a weapons depot, but somehow a secondary explosion, which wasn't' their fault of course, hit the EMPTY mall....

I'm surprised with how many strikes on the island it hasn't become Snake archipelago.

I know you're joking, but the amount of damage that would need to be done by conventional means is terrifying to make that a reality.

[Vladier]

It would have been more believable if they just said "We were aiming for the rail depot next door that was being used to ship NATO weapons to the front line and we missed." and 3rd party nations (those neither aligned with Russia or NATO) might have actually accepted that excuse since Russian missiles don't have accuracy anymore since they've come close to using up their best weapons..

They did, essentially, admit to that. They just claim that the trading center was nonfunctional and empty. I guess Ukrainian Nazis used black magic to scry the location of a future strike and filled an empty mall with people. How truly vile of them. /s just in case.

[ifrah]

It would have been more believable if they just said "We were aiming for the rail depot next door that was being used to ship NATO weapons to the front line and we missed." and 3rd party nations (those neither aligned with Russia or NATO) might have actually accepted that excuse since Russian missiles don't have accuracy anymore since they've come close to using up their best weapons..

- - - Updated - - -

I don't think even Putin knows what the endgame is anymore. Maybe it's just Donbass and keeping Crimea "safe" (From a Russian perspective). Maybe it's still all of Ukraine somehow. Either way I'm not even sure a full mobilization will get them what they need anymore.

As said above by Phaelix, it seems it's more about what the great enemy shall not have rather than what Russia would be trying to obtain. And whether their lies and claims are believable as well, does anyone still think they care? They don't care about anything. It's about destroying anything and everything there is in that country, and the rest is irrelevant. They likely have resources to keep the meat grinder running for much longer than we think, or what the western solidarity efforts are expected to last. Unfortunately.