1. #21381
    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    To clarify: worse than projected for EU means a small GDP growth of perhaps 2.7% instead of 4% ( https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-e...ic-forecast_en ) , Russia predicts their GDP will decline by perhaps 8% instead of the previously projected modest growth - https://www.russia-briefing.com/news...forecast.html/
    Those EU predictions will not necessarily stop getting revised down as European situation worsens... another revision down with next quarter wouldn't be surprising.

  2. #21382
    The Unstoppable Force Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Azadina View Post
    The Russian ministry of truth cannot even afford to pay for a newspaper? And here you were boasting how well Russia does economically compared to the west.
    Remember, almost 80% of all Russian households have running water!

    Clearly the pinnacle of civilization.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  3. #21383
    Quote Originally Posted by Specialka View Post
    EU is doing much worse than projected (maybe) but still miles better than Russia.
    Some EU countries already do worse in inflation.

  4. #21384
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Some EU countries already do worse in inflation.
    Can't beat 20% monthly inflation

  5. #21385
    The Unstoppable Force Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Everyone is going to take hits - economic wars in modern globalized markets are not going to be one-sided. And EU so far is doing much worse then projected.

    Worst-case for EU is:
    - people freeze (even reduction of "allowed temperatures" can bring hits to health)
    - getting all "alternative" suppliers lined up and building local LNG hubs will take at least several years, and actually replacing entire Russian production (rather then shifting flows around) would need trillions in investments
    - industries collapse (some already do due to prices; more will with actual physical shortages)
    - competitiveness of European goods that were buoyed by cheap Russian energy is lost forever (LNG will forever have higher price then pipe gas, and alternative pipe options are rather limited), making Europe inferior option to Asian - or American - producers.

    vs

    Russia has to:
    - find new buyers of oil and gas that is going to be in short supply for next decade - doesn't seem to be a real problem; volumes drop, but price increases easily make up for it so far... could change if production would increase, but previous underinvestment all around the world makes that very unlikely, and "green/renewable future" beliefs are still strong
    - find new suppliers of consumer and industrial electronics - or learn to produce them themselves
    - industries that relied on imports will have to use lower-volume 'grey' schemes
    There is enough money brought in to actually fuel internal investments in next decade, and all "basic needs" - food and energy - are not in danger of not being met (it isn't ever going to be "food for oil" like with late USSR).
    You claim that all of these replacement suppliers will be unfindable for Europe, and that pivoting their energy or building new infrastructure will take far, far too long... but that Russia can make up for its dearth of, what was it... oh, yeah the lack of replacement equipment for the war it's currently fighting, like it's no problem despite the financial collapse occurring, drain of both qualified individuals and wealthy individuals as they flee Russia, alienation by the rest of the world, and their lack of infrastructure to create necessary things like microchips and communications equipment that they've effectively been shut out of... but no, Russia will take its shrinking economy and rally and build these things like it's nothing, in no time, despite the growing lack of every type of capitol required to do so- financial, resource, and human, while the 27 countries in the EU will simply founder and be utterly unable to do anything.

    You like tossing around the word "hopium." Perhaps you should look in the mirror about who's using it the most, here. Every single thing you claim is a "deathblow" for Europe is actively happening in Russia, it's just that Europe 1) isn't fighting a war and 2) isn't sealed off from the rest of the world. And yet you look at that situation... exclusively, it seems, because China and a few other countries are... buying your oil, because you're the cheap, exploitable source of it?
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  6. #21386
    Quote Originally Posted by Specialka View Post
    Can't beat 20% monthly inflation
    Russian inflation is below that.

  7. #21387
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Those EU predictions will not necessarily stop getting revised down as European situation worsens... another revision down with next quarter wouldn't be surprising.
    Vague possibilities, you could also say that Morgan Stanley have a lower estimate - https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/...22-global-gdp/ - and "forget" to mention that their prediction is 2.6% (down from 2.7% by EU).

    The Russian predictions may also be revised downward - and remember those were Russian predictions, whereas Morgan Stanley predict Russian economy declining by 12% compared to 8% by Russian predictions.

  8. #21388
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Russian inflation is below that.
    Any source to prove it ? (any independant source obviously)

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Forogil View Post
    Vague possibilities, you could also say that Morgan Stanley have a lower estimate - https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/...22-global-gdp/ - and "forget" to mention that their prediction is 2.6% (down from 2.7% by EU).

    The Russian predictions may also be revised downward - and remember those were Russian predictions, whereas Morgan Stanley predict Russian economy declining by 12% compared to 8% by Russian predictions.
    Let's not forget that Russia lie, raid, pillage, rape and kill when they feel like it.

  9. #21389
    Quote Originally Posted by Kaleredar View Post
    You claim that all of these replacement suppliers will be unfindable for Europe, and that pivoting their energy or building new infrastructure will take far, far too long...
    Few years and trillions of investments isn't that long for replacing supplier that built networks into your markets for many decades - some from Soviet times.

    No new supplier is going to beat previous logistics though.

    but that Russia can make up for its dearth of, what was it... oh, yeah the lack of replacement equipment for the war it's currently fighting,
    There is enough already made for years of war.

    like it's no problem despite the financial collapse occurring
    Which financial collapse? Russia is running record trade surplus...

    drain of both qualified individuals and wealthy individuals as they flee Russia
    Are you of opinion that any billionaire/millionaire is net positive just because he resides in your country?
    80% of those "qualified individuals" that fled in first few months reportedly already returned.

    alienation by the rest of the world
    Western world only so far.

    and their lack of infrastructure to create necessary things like microchips and communications equipment that they've effectively been shut out of
    It's longer-term goal but even this industry isn't impossible to build up/advance given the obvious need.

    but no, Russia will take its shrinking economy and rally and build these things like it's nothing, in no time, despite the growing lack of every type of capitol required to do so- financial, resource, and human, while the 27 countries in the EU will simply founder and be utterly unable to do anything.
    It'll take time and effort. But the capital to do it is still pouring into Russia right now, and rainy-day "sovereign wealth funds" are already being tapped to that end.

    EU seems to be utterly unable to predict obvious side-effects of their own sanctions. Maybe it'll grow wiser with time, but their options are actually quite limited given that they don't want to get into 20-year supply deals like Qatar offers.
    Last edited by Shalcker; 2022-06-19 at 09:06 PM.

  10. #21390
    Elemental Lord Santti's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kaleredar View Post
    Remember, almost 80% of all Russian households have running water!

    Clearly the pinnacle of civilization.
    Woah... could they have electricity too, dare we dream!?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ransath View Post
    Money laundering, especially prior to his election? I couldn't give a flying fuck.

  11. #21391
    Quote Originally Posted by Specialka View Post
    Any source to prove it ? (any independant source obviously)
    Sure, it's 17.11% YoY as of May 2022

    Meanwhile Estonia hit 20%.

  12. #21392
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Meanwhile, from your own source.

    In 2022 Russia ranks #1 in the world by yearly inflation rate.

  13. #21393
    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas82 View Post
    Meanwhile, from your own source.
    #1 out of 1? They don't seem to have anyone else for 2022.

    Current winner for #1 inflation is definitely Turkey.
    Last edited by Shalcker; 2022-06-19 at 09:23 PM.

  14. #21394
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    #1 out of 1? that's pretty weird table.
    1 of 195. Nice try though.

  15. #21395
    Quote Originally Posted by Vegas82 View Post
    1 of 195. Nice try though.
    Not sure where you're looking, but Turkish inflation of 73.5% definitely would win in any "legit" comparison.

  16. #21396
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Not sure where you're looking, but Turkish inflation of 73.5% definitely would win in any "legit" comparison.
    I'm not sure that "our inflation is better than Turkey" is the flex you think it is. Why not boast about it being better than Zimbabwe while you're at it?
    When challenging a Kzin, a simple scream of rage is sufficient. You scream and you leap.
    Quote Originally Posted by George Carlin
    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Douglas Adams
    It is a well-known fact that those people who must want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it... anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job.

  17. #21397
    Quote Originally Posted by Huehuecoyotl View Post
    I'm not sure that "our inflation is better than Turkey" is the flex you think it is. Why not boast about it being better than Zimbabwe while you're at it?
    EU member Estonia already does worse.

    Some other EU members might follow if situation will continue to deteriorate.

  18. #21398
    The Unstoppable Force Kaleredar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Few years and trillions of investments isn't that long for replacing supplier that built networks into your markets for many decades - some from Soviet times.

    No new supplier is going to beat previous logistics though.

    There is enough already made for years of war.
    Then they sure are running through that at an alarming rate. Someone previously linked that Russia had already run through a startling large percentage of its available tanks.

    And I think it's disingenuous to say "we've had rusting surplus sitting around for years" equates to "we have years of stockpiles ready."

    And, of course, digging further and further back into more and more obsolete technology is not the same as "we can replace the equipment we've lost."

    Which financial collapse? Russia is running record trade surplus...
    And is suffering enormous inflation as its economy is expected to contract by decades and slide into a brutal recession.

    Again, you seem to think "Russia's future looks grim" can be balanced out by "but oil."

    Because ultimately both of those things can be true. Russia can have a high trade surplus... and still have its economy shit the bed. In fact, that's what's actively happening.

    Are you of opinion that any billionaire/millionaire is net positive just because he resides in your country?
    Seeing as it's extremely difficult for them to trade that money in and out of Russia in any meaningful way, and they're taking the money with them...

    80% of those "qualified individuals" that fled in first few months reportedly already returned.
    Oh, yes, I'm sure "80%" of them just decided to dip out and then come running right back. A quick google search on this reveals nothing to support this notion.

    Russia isn't known for making bold outrageous lies when it suits them, after all. Like lying about how they're undergoing a "peace operation" in a neighboring country to rid them of Naizs or CIA chemical plants, or that how an irreplaceable warship sunk by Ukrainians sunk due to a storm and instead of almost the entire crew perishing only one person died.

    Don't worry, the United States will happily accept Russia's most eminent experts.

    Western world only so far.
    So about 2/3 to 3/4 of the world's GDP.

    It's longer-term goal but even this industry isn't impossible to build up/advance given the obvious need.
    And in the short term?

    The rest of the world isn't waiting around for Russia. It's going to move on. And that's ultimately the problem that everyone else has pointed out... the US, the EU, your bestest friend and pal in the world China... You're taking an enormous shot in the face to cripple yourself economically, and even if you're able to eventually dig yourself out of the hole you blew at your own feet... you're going to be climbing back out of it into a place the rest of the world left far behind.

    And for what? To eventually not get Ukraine?

    I mean, I suppose you could say you're in a better place than Ukraine, pending some sort of Marshall plan levied by the western world to rebuild a shining new Ukraine on your doorstep... but like "hah look at Russia, we're in a better place than Ukraine is... I mean, we're in a worse spot than we were before, and in a worse spot than any other major country in the world, but we're STILL BETTER THAN UKRAINE!" is a really, really bad way to run the future prospects of a country.

    It'll take time and effort. But the capital to do it is still pouring into Russia right now, and rainy-day "sovereign wealth funds" are already being tapped to that end.

    EU seems to be utterly unable to predict obvious side-effects of their own sanctions. Maybe it'll grow wiser with time, but their options are actually quite limited given that they don't want to get into 20-year supply deals like Qatar offers.
    The EU is actively working on plans to alleviate their reliance on Russia. Again, you go on and on about the "immediate pain the EU/the west/NATO will suffer" whilst ignoring that pain happening to Russia right now. You assume that Russia in its pariah state will overcome these challenges... or somehow be ultimately hurt less by them... than the entire rest of the world, despite the rest of the world's ability to pivot around Russia to... any other country in the world.

    Russia is trying to be more like the USSR, but they're doing so by becoming an alienated nation of scarcity, economic trouble and authoritarianism, instead of the global superpower they dream of being.

    And as for how the USSR fared... people were fleeing over that wall in Germany in a single direction. Remember that. Oh, and the USSR doesn't exist anymore, whereas the USA and the rest of Europe does. That's probably worth noting to.
    “Do not lose time on daily trivialities. Do not dwell on petty detail. For all of these things melt away and drift apart within the obscure traffic of time. Live well and live broadly. You are alive and living now. Now is the envy of all of the dead.” ~ Emily3, World of Tomorrow
    Quote Originally Posted by Wells View Post
    Kaleredar is right...
    Words to live by.

  19. #21399
    Over 9000! PhaelixWW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Some other EU members might follow if situation will continue to deteriorate.
    It won't.

    At least not as quickly as it will for Russia.


    "The difference between stupidity
    and genius is that genius has its limits."

    --Alexandre Dumas-fils

  20. #21400
    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    Not sure where you're looking, but Turkish inflation of 73.5% definitely would win in any "legit" comparison.
    Annual inflation rate.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Shalcker View Post
    EU member Estonia already does worse.

    Some other EU members might follow if situation will continue to deteriorate.
    That’s just it, most of the inflation issues are going to be alleviated for the rest of the world as they move on from Russia. Guess who’s boxed in a corner with their turnips?

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