Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Jastall]

I’ve always wondered what happens to the Russian offensive when this drags into winter.

At they going to be beaten by the only tactic that saved their asses from the French and then the Germans?




I don’t think anyone is counting Ukraine out, save for the Russian indoctorates around here.

As far as the west… pending some pro-Russian shill finding a place of power (again, God forbid) I don’t see any reason countries like the US wouldn’t just keep sending aid to Ukraine. It mires Russia down while sanctions rot them from within, and all the US has to do is donate military hardware worth a rounding error of their annual military budget.

Europe is in a tighter spot with their energy dependence, but they’re progressively lessening that, and that’s a market share that progressively dwindles for Russia and won’t return the longer Russia insists on dragging this along.

In essence, the longer Russia does this, the more the rest of the works leaves them behind. NATO has already all but gained two members on Russia’s doorstep, so their little crusade to “scare others away from nato” has already demonstrably failed.

Come winter the Russians will hold on to to whatever they have and sue for peace, on their terms as much as they're able. I personally doubt Putin wants this to go on for years on end, that's when sanctions will really start to bite. Whenever Ukraine takes the bait likely relies a lot on the West's reaction to this, and how much the Russians have taken when this happens.

[Fugus]

Come winter the Russians will hold on to to whatever they have and sue for peace, on their terms as much as they're able. I personally doubt Putin wants this to go on for years on end, that's when sanctions will really start to bite. Whenever Ukraine takes the bait likely relies a lot on the West's reaction to this, and how much the Russians have taken when this happens.

I think much of that also depends on if the GOP retake the US as they are very sympathetic to Putin as well given just how many supported him and their bases love of Trump and how Russia supported and even funded the GOP.

But short of that, it would be beyond dumb for Ukraine or the world to let Russia do that, the smart thing to do would be to keep the sanctions on and keep the pressure on till Russia is out of there entirely and then a little longer for good measure while foreign inspectors come and look at the place to ensure they are gone.

Outside of Oil, there isn't much going for Russia and the world is already trying to get off of oil anyways so the longer this goes on, the less of a bargaining position Russia is on the matter.

[Jastall]

I think much of that also depends on if the GOP retake the US as they are very sympathetic to Putin as well given just how many supported him and their bases love of Trump and how Russia supported and even funded the GOP.

But short of that, it would be beyond dumb for Ukraine or the world to let Russia do that, the smart thing to do would be to keep the sanctions on and keep the pressure on till Russia is out of there entirely and then a little longer for good measure while foreign inspectors come and look at the place to ensure they are gone.

Outside of Oil, there isn't much going for Russia and the world is already trying to get off of oil anyways so the longer this goes on, the less of a bargaining position Russia is on the matter.

Oil is still very important for Europe. No matter how much effort is made to wean them off it, Germany especially must suckle at the Russian teat for years to come in order to avoid a massive energy crisis. It's a leverage that is not be underestimated.

[Fugus]

Oil is still very important for Europe. No matter how much effort is made to wean them off it, Germany especially must suckle at the Russian teat for years to come in order to avoid a massive energy crisis. It's a leverage that is not be underestimated.

I understand that, but this is one where the rest of the world could honestly help them in that regard. Much of the issue doesn't even come from Russia in this regard either as it can also be directed at what I refer to as "The Free Market Fuck Ups". Who keep trying to pretend that capitalism isn't making this worse.

We literally have Mobile Exxon and Cheveron making massive profits while refusing the increase production or tap the countless stretches of leased federal land because those same fuck ups refused to put "Use it or Lose it" provisions in it and then have these same retards blaming Biden for it.

[Kaleredar]

Come winter the Russians will hold on to to whatever they have and sue for peace, on their terms as much as they're able. I personally doubt Putin wants this to go on for years on end, that's when sanctions will really start to bite. Whenever Ukraine takes the bait likely relies a lot on the West's reaction to this, and how much the Russians have taken when this happens.

I doubt Ukraine is going to accept any kind of peace arrangement until they can find their way into some defensive alliance with either NATO or the EU.

Because this is the least prepared Russia is for war. They’re delving into Soviet-era surpluses for equipment while dealing with increasing shortages for hardware as well as domestic goods and an initial invasion strategy that was shot to hell. Any sort of “peace agreement,” especially one that yields tactical land to Russia, that doesn’t come with Ukraine getting some powerful friends just means Russia does this again down the line more prepared to shrug off the international blowback that’s sent them reeling and with that much more preparation for a protracted and bloody conflict.

[Ulmita]

Just leaving this here: https://www.commondreams.org/views/2...eocon-disaster

Another article from an academic that sais pretty much the same things as: https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4

Some food for thought

[Corvus]

Just leaving this here: https://www.commondreams.org/views/2...eocon-disaster

Another article from an academic that sais pretty much the same things as: https://youtu.be/JrMiSQAGOS4

Some food for thought

Russia must be so weak and gullible if the west somehow made them attack Ukraine.

Sorry, the only party responsible for the war is Russia.

[Ulmita]

Russia must be so weak and gullible if the west somehow made them attack Ukraine.

Sorry, the only party responsible for the war is Russia.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-matters-today

Russia even tried to avoid this war multiple times by getting NATO and the US to sign legal assurances in 2021

[Elegiac]

Russia even tried to avoid this war multiple times by getting NATO and the US to sign legal assurances in 2021

That's nice. Doesn't change the fact no one forced them to invade Ukraine (or that 'legal assurances' with Putin's Russia are less than worthless).

Stop sucking off the Kremlin's propaganda tit.

[PhaelixWW]

"All you had to do to keep us from stealing whatever we want is to give us everything we want. So really, this is all your fault."

Well, that's a... take, all right.

[Elegiac]

"All you had to do to keep us from stealing whatever we want is to give us everything we want. So really, this is all your fault."

Well, that's a... take, all right.

"Well what were we supposed to do, not defend the Reich against Polish atrocities?" /s

[postman1782]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-matters-today

Russia even tried to avoid this war multiple times by getting NATO and the US to sign legal assurances in 2021

You mean, 7 years after they already annexed Crimea? Seriously, how much does Putin pay you? Because you need to ask for double.

[Dezerte]

Not clicking the YouTube-link because it'll mess up my recommended videos.

The other link is an opinion piece in which he blames the west for Russia's actions, written by an academic that has sustained a lot of criticism for his policies and ideas including his apologism for China and it's treatment of the Uyghurs.

Blaming the west/NATO for Russia's aggression is a super bad take. It's like blaming the Allies for what the Nazis did to the Jews.

[Corvus]

It's also the classic domestic violence excuse - you made me hit you.

[Kallisto]

It's also the classic domestic violence excuse - you made me hit you.

True, plus isn't domestic abuse legal in Russia? Might be a link here to using that excuse.

[PhaelixWW]

It's also the classic domestic violence excuse - you made me hit you.

I seem to recall I made a similar...

...yup:

That's like the guy who says that the woman is to blame for being raped because she wore a short skirt.

Like... nah. Civilization is still going to come to the defense of the woman and punish the rapist.

[Forogil]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-matters-today

Russia even tried to avoid this war multiple times by getting NATO and the US to sign legal assurances in 2021

Russia not only tried to sign assurances, but actually did sign the Budapest memorandum already in 1994 to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine, and Russia vowed to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.

And so did the US.

However, Russia broke that, and most people have understood that giving Nazis/Russian pieces of land for promises of peace didn't work in the 1930s and will not work this time either.

[Gabriel]

An entire new generation learning that you should never trust anything that Russia says or does.

I'm so happy.

[Lahis]

An entire new generation learning that you should never trust anything that Russia says or does.

I'm so happy.

As an old Finnish idiom goes: "A Ruskie is a Ruskie even if you fried them in butter."

[Pann]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-matters-today

Russia even tried to avoid this war multiple times by getting NATO and the US to sign legal assurances in 2021

It's never Russia's fault, is it? Whether it's poisoning people, cheating at sport or committing genocide there is always someone else to blame.