Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Belize]

They are having to hide/reposition munition locations, so yeah it is having an impact as a brand new weapon with a lot of power behind it.

I don't believe the success can last, ammunition for Ukraine is a major concern.

Some years ago when he was still around @Skroe wrote a fairly lengthy post about the fact a lot countries, even the US, are severely lacking in ammunition. Mattis and successors worked to change that...but well there's not that many stories of Javelins being used as they were at the start...because Ukraine and the West have run out of them.

Ammunition for Russia is as much, if not more of a concern, especially considering the amount of ammo depots going up in flames and Russia being cut off from a lot of the world's supply chains.

[Yunru]

Ammunition for Russia is as much, if not more of a concern, especially considering the amount of ammo depots going up in flames and Russia being cut off from a lot of the world's supply chains.

They should also hit any food suppy depos.

[Iphie]

They should also hit any food suppy depos.

Unfortunately that could probably be construed as a war crime. I mean hitting the food supply can be seen as a civilian target. Any food stores on a base though are fair game.

[jonnysensible]

Ammunition for Russia is as much, if not more of a concern.

they've got shit loads of ammo and their standardization is better than Ukraine (weapons, material and ammo) its mainly manpower issues that Russia is struggling with.

[Poopymonster]

they've got shit loads of ammo and their standardization is better than Ukraine (weapons, material and ammo) its mainly manpower issues that Russia is struggling with.

Is that "shit loads of ammo" on paper, or "shit loads of ammo" that works, or "shit loads of ammo" that exists and is functional?

[CostinR]

Is that "shit loads of ammo" on paper, or "shit loads of ammo" that works, or "shit loads of ammo" that exists and is functional?

The final option.

Russia may not have enormous stocks of modern munitions, but they are have enormous stocks of the older types. They won't be running out of ammo in years.

The depots Ukraine has taken out? That does affect their frontline units but they are replaceable.

Ukraine however is running out of essentially everything, they've pretty much used the vast majority of their artillery shells for instance. The west can't replace that because they are different types then what works on their systems, and yes the west is giving Ukraine new artillery systems but that requires training and there's limited stocks.

[jonnysensible]

Is that "shit loads of ammo" on paper, or "shit loads of ammo" that works, or "shit loads of ammo" that exists and is functional?

exists and is functional, at least a million artillery shells etc thats without whatever they are opening up in belarus. They've got a lack of missile problem, but things like artillery is fine for them.

Ukraine have a bit of a hodgepodge because they are sort of just taking anything they can get their hands on and we are sending them anything we can. Its a maintenance issue really (So many different systems).

But Russias manpower is fucked. Theres a looming battle for Slovyansk and Kramatorsk which will probably go on for months of just artillery banging eachother. And hopefully the Ukranians are successful in counter attacks in Kherson region.

Ukraine must be having a few man power issues itself by now as well but its not really clear who has an advantage. If Ukraine can counter attack and show they can take back land thats very bad for Russia. Because Ukraine can still just trade territory for heavy Russian attrition in the donbas, knowing down the line they can take the land back.

[Iphie]

exists and is functional, at least a million artillery shells etc thats without whatever they are opening up in belarus. They've got a lack of missile problem, but things like artillery is fine for them.

That's nice, but that would be about 15 days worth of shelling if the 50-60k a day was true. (it isn't but to put that million in perspective.) The point is, a million shells is pissed away real quickly if you use intense shelling and have that many artillery pieces.

[Corvus]

Ammo can't be stored for ever, especially the way Russia stores things. On paper Russia shouldn't have needed to break out the t62s either as they had plenty of more modern tanks on storage, but many of those were rusted and stripped of parts. Russian storage isn't great.

They have already burned through millions of rounds of artillery ammo already and have been forced into taking Belarusian ammo to make up for it. Russian stores are large, but not infinite, and aren't much good if you can't even get them to the front line.

Add in Ukraine taking out major depots, some of which reportedly were Corp level depots. Heck, one of them was so big it registered as a seismic event.

Firing as heavily as the Russians are also wears out artillery barrels fast. Russia is probably burning through tens of barrels a day, which requires replacing, adding further logistical problems.

Interestingly, a US report from 2016 said the most dangerous place on a battlefield was in a Russian ammo depot and the second most dangerous a Russian fuel depot.

[jonnysensible]

Ammo can't be stored for ever, especially the way Russia stores things. On paper Russia shouldn't have needed to break out the t62s either as they had plenty of more modern tanks on storage, but many of those were rusted and stripped of parts. Russian storage isn't great.

They have already burned through millions of rounds of artillery ammo already and have been forced into taking Belarusian ammo to make up for it. Russian stores are large, but not infinite, and aren't much good if you can't even get them to the front line.

Add in Ukraine taking out major depots, some of which reportedly were Corp level depots. Heck, one of them was so big it registered as a seismic event.

Firing as heavily as the Russians are also wears out artillery barrels fast. Russia is probably burning through tens of barrels a day, which requires replacing, adding further logistical problems.

Interestingly, a US report from 2016 said the most dangerous place on a battlefield was in a Russian ammo depot and the second most dangerous a Russian fuel depot.

not sure i agree with this.

Russians are moving to ukranian lines, hammering artillery until ukranians have to move and then moving up to where the new line is and repeating.

Ukranians are doing as much damage and attrition as they can and then moving back to the next defensive position. A steep price for every inch. Picking cities to fight in when they have the defensive advantage. And local counter attacks in stretched out fronts.

Neither side is gaining an overwhelming advantage but Russia has an advantage in artillery in the donbas.

LDNR troops are basically banging against territorial defense forces and both are taking heavy casualties.

Russia is so short of forces it has to re consolidate after it captures more territory. Which is why they can't encircle Ukrainian forces or take advantage of breakouts, Russians are too slow and badly short of manpower.

Russians have lost alot of infantry fighting vehicles and tanks and are now pulling out old stuff out of storage.

Russia has enough ammo to keep going for a while. Ukraine is basically out of ammo which is why they are desperately trying to get anything sent to them.

HIMARS are giving them some parity (banging control points and ammo dumps) but they aren't decisive.

We dont produce sufficient ammo in the west.

Short term suits Russia but long term does still suit Ukraine. But Ukraine are suffering pretty bad degradation of forces as well. They are throwing people at the line who are pretty untrained at the moment.

Pulling Ukrainian volunteers out of Ukraine and training them elsewhere until they are proficient soldiers is pretty good right now.

Ukraine needs ammo, protected mobility (if they ever want offenses, APC's etc) and better trained troops. We haven't seen a major Ukranian offensive but I think with sustained help they could conduct them successfully. But we will see how the next phase of the donbas goes. + how the insurgency develops.

This wars going to go on for years regardless and I can't see it being much more than a meet grinder for the rest of this year.

[Fantomen]

Russia has enough ammo to keep going for a while.

Do you realise how rapidly you burn amuntion if you fire 60 000 shells/day Thats about 1 million shells after 17 days. Thats almost 6 million shells after 100 days. Russia have loots of amuntion, but how mutch have not "rotten" becuse of poor storage. My point is Russia can not continue "for a while" in this tempo.

[jonnysensible]

Do you realise how rapidly you burn amuntion if you fire 60 000 shells/day Thats about 1 million shells after 17 days. Thats almost 6 million shells after 100 days. Russia have loots of amuntion, but how mutch have not "rotten" becuse of poor storage. My point is Russia can not continue "for a while" in this tempo.

They defo arent firing 60,000 shells a day thats fantasy. But they really don't have ammo problems, they have a problem with complex weapons (guided missiles etc) but they will continue the current levels of shelling 'for a while' (months) but i dont know about russian ammo production.

Again the problem with them is they don't have enough men to do anything after shelling. They cant encircle the ukranians, and the ukranians have successfully withdrawn (and will continue to whenever they want). The more land the Russians take the worse this will get because they have to start administering the area and trying to not get fucked up by partisans. (which is why they are mass deporting people to filtration camps as well)

Also its a shame Easo isnt around because i could mock him about his 'drones aren't that big of a deal'. When infact they are a massive deal.

[Flarelaine]

Excuse me, at least 70% of houses in Russia have working toilets.

I recall a joke from my childhood...


"What's a Siberian toilet like?"

"It's two sticks. One to hold on to, one to keep the wolves at bay."

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They are having to hide/reposition munition locations, so yeah it is having an impact as a brand new weapon with a lot of power behind it.

I don't believe the success can last, ammunition for Ukraine is a major concern.

Some years ago when he was still around @Skroe wrote a fairly lengthy post about the fact a lot countries, even the US, are severely lacking in ammunition. Mattis and successors worked to change that...but well there's not that many stories of Javelins being used as they were at the start...because Ukraine and the West have run out of them.

Possibly. Or because Russia switched from armoured columns to leveling everything with artillery.

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Being conscripted became a realistic concern for me, yeah. I won't doxx myself explaining how I'm dodging it so far.

I wanted to rant about Russian propaganda for a while now. As a background, Donetsk "Republic" was, from the start until this May, a real pirate haven - any web sites reported as blocked in the West, Ukraine or Russia, all were accessible from here. But this May they enforced Russian rules, and all sites forbidden in Russia are inaccessible without a proxy or a VPN. So people who are not very tech-savvy can only see what Kremlin lets them. And in Russia it was like that for a while, we can only imagine level of brainwashing there. And they are experimenting with blocking VPN services too, so yeah, good news everyone.

Stay safe.

[Iphie]

Possibly. Or because Russia switched from armoured columns to leveling everything with artillery.

Yeah, every time a column shows up it gets blown up by Ukrainians either by drone, arty or otherwise. It might also just be that russia is running out of tanks and armoured vehicles. But last I read was that Ukraine still has a sizable supply of javalins and other AT.

[Lahis]

Why won't they just fucking stop? What's the fucking point of this shit show?

Russia needs to win to keep face domestically. Russian Empires always fall after they lose a war that was supposed to be an easy victory.

[Corvus]

Fucking murdering Nazi Russian terrorist scum are at it again, this time hitting a city 400 miles from the front that had no military targets in it, with only the purpose of killing civilians. At least 20 dead, including 3 children.

[Iphie]

Fucking murdering Nazi Russian terrorist scum are at it again, this time hitting a city 400 miles from the front that had no military targets in it, with only the purpose of killing civilians. At least 20 dead, including 3 children.

That the place they sent S-300 missiles to hit ground targets? Because that in and of itself is also a bit worrisome: using SAM systems to shoot at ground targets, can't imagine that that's very effective.

[Marcellus1986]

That the place they sent S-300 missiles to hit ground targets? Because that in and of itself is also a bit worrisome: using SAM systems to shoot at ground targets, can't imagine that that's very effective.

They were supposedly Kalibr cruise missiles from a submarine

[zorkuus]

Fucking murdering Nazi Russian terrorist scum are at it again, this time hitting a city 400 miles from the front that had no military targets in it, with only the purpose of killing civilians. At least 20 dead, including 3 children.

I find it almost hard to get angry at this stuff at this point, because this is what these backward shitheads do, have always done. A lot of people just didn't wake up to it earlier.

[Corvus]

Russia defence ministry is reportedly investigating the manufacturer of the s300 and s400 for claiming it would work against himars when it turns out to be useless against it. Something something corruption something something.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/...lS7h32OO6OvWEA