Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Gorsameth]

I guess Russia is betting on Ukraine running out of ammo before they run out of meat for the meatgrinder.

Not happening as long as the West keeps supplying

[Edge-]

I guess Russia is betting on Ukraine running out of ammo before they run out of meat for the meatgrinder.

It's sadfunny, because I remember jokes to this effect at the start of the war when the myth of the modern Russian military was still a thing.

[Iphie]

I don't understand how

"ban russians from holding dual citizenship if they have a passport granted by your country"

turned into

"genocide bad" conversation.

You'll have to go back up in the thread, but Yunru proposed deporting undesirables, by which they meant russians, or people with a russian passport. That -at the VERY least- is ethnic cleansing, and could be considered genocide, which is bad. It's a page or two back I think.

The whole passport conversation happened after that.

[Corvus]

The US has placed Russia on the human trafficking and child soldier list. Yeah, no shock there.

Gen. Milley in a briefing has said that over the last 90 days, since Russia concentrated everything in the east, they have gained maybe 6-10 miles of territory. Thats moving at WW1 rates.

And their own SU-34 that Russia shot down the other day? It was a SU-34M, of which no more than 10 exist and were only delivered into service last month. They just shot down one of their newest and best planes.

[Iphie]

Well, that's ONE way of asking for more weapons.

Bit crude though, but I'm not gonna pretend that the thought hasn't crossed every arms suppliers' mind.

https://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2022...insky-prospekt

And another fire, civilian object so I'm betting faulty wiring is an actual option.

[Breccia]

Happy deathiversary, Russia. Congrats on losing 15,000 soldiers.

[Corvus]

Happy deathiversary, Russia. Congrats on losing 15,000 soldiers.

Thats probably a conservative estimate too. Its nearing 40,000 according to Ukrainian claims.

[Breccia]

Thats probably a conservative estimate too. Its nearing 40,000 according to Ukrainian claims.

I trust the CIA over Ukraine, but I trust Ukraine over Russia. Russia says 1,300.

[Azadina]

I trust the CIA over Ukraine, but I trust Ukraine over Russia. Russia says 1,300.

How does that work again? If between numbers 1300, 15000 and just shy of 40000 your pick is 15000, then isn't that effectively saying you trust Russian numbers far more than you do Ukraines?

[Fuiking]

Well, that's ONE way of asking for more weapons.

Bit crude though, but I'm not gonna pretend that the thought hasn't crossed every arms suppliers' mind.

https://russia.liveuamap.com/en/2022...insky-prospekt

And another fire, civilian object so I'm betting faulty wiring is an actual option.

*netherlands starts sweating profusely* ''We have no more ammo and weaponry to donate''. Fucks sake, I knew the state of the dutch army was terrible but that terrible? A bunch of fucking farmers on Texel could delcare independance and the fucking army cant do anyhing about that. Also, I read it were SU-35M's so probaly unfamiliarity with a as of yet rare fighter jet.

[Corvus]

I trust the CIA over Ukraine, but I trust Ukraine over Russia. Russia says 1,300.

Western Intel has previously said 20000 dead I seem to recall. Truth is no one really knows, and may never know, but it is a lot.

Around 5000 funerals have been counted on Russian social media and that's just the ones known about.

[Breccia]

How does that work again? If between numbers 1300, 15000 and just shy of 40000 your pick is 15000, then isn't that effectively saying you trust Russian numbers far more than you do Ukraines?

No.

First of all, I was talking about their sources. I think Ukraine is far more likely than Russia to be telling the truth.

Second of all, Ukraine's numbers are not quite triple the US's. Russia's are less than one-tenth the US's. Russia is actually the one that's more different.

[Azadina]

No.

First of all, I was talking about their sources. I think Ukraine is far more likely than Russia to be telling the truth.

Second of all, Ukraine's numbers are not quite triple the US's. Russia's are less than one-tenth the US's. Russia is actually the one that's more different.

If the 15000 is to be believed, then Russia is undershooting by 13700, while Ukraine is overshooting by 25000. Seems like one number is far closer to truth than the other, isn't it?

[Breccia]

If the 15000 is to be believed, then Russia is undershooting by 13700, while Ukraine is overshooting by 25000. Seems like one number is far closer to truth than the other, isn't it?

No. You are missing the concept of absolute vs. relative change. By your logic, the Russians could say "nobody has died at all" and you'd say they were closer.

Sometimes, relative differences matter more than absolute differences. This is one of those times. Russia's claim strains belief more because they're off by an entire order of magnitude.

[Gorsameth]

Remember when talking about those numbers that some are killed, others are killed + wounded ect.

[Azadina]

No. You are missing the concept of absolute vs. relative change. By your logic, the Russians could say "nobody has died at all" and you'd say they were closer.

Sometimes, relative differences matter more than absolute differences. This is one of those times. Russia's claim strains belief more because they're off by an entire order of magnitude.

There's somewhat finite number of RuZZlamic terrorists in Ukraine, so yes, I do speak of them by absolute numbers. It's the one number ticking down to zero that matters.

[Breccia]

Remember when talking about those numbers that some are killed, others are killed + wounded ect.

The CIA said 15,000 dead and 45,000 wounded.

There's somewhat finite number of RuZZlamic terrorists in Ukraine, so yes, I do speak of them by absolute numbers. It's the one number ticking down to zero that matters.

If you're waiting for the Russian troop number to tick down to zero, it makes the Russian lie about casualties even further off than it already is.

Just to put a number on it, let's say Russia sent in 600,000 troops (the exact number isn't important, you'll see why) and let's say it's been five months. Let's also assume the death/wounded rate is the same in all three estimates, triple.

According to the CIA, 60,000 Russians are dead or wounded. They've lost 10% of their force in five months. At that rate, the Russians will be dead/gone in 50 months total.

According to Ukraine, 40000 Russians are dead and using the wounded ratio 120,000 are wounded. At that rate, the Russians will be dead/gone in 19 months.

According to Russia, 1,300 Russians are dead and using the wounded ratio 3,900 are wounded. At that rate, the Russians will be dead/gone in 48 years.

Now, who's closer?

The Russian number is just a childishly bad lie. Ukraine is likely overestimating, but they're still closer, especially in the context you describe. That said, I believe the CIA number is the most realistic of the three and it lines up with most other estimates from, say, the UK. Four days ago, they put the total casualty count at 50,000 which is pretty close to the US's 60,000.

[Voidism]

Jesus Christ guys, can you not argue over that pointless thing.

Clearly they all count differently, some count missing as dead for example. It doesn't matter exactly. Point is they have lost a lot.

[Corvus]

This has to be some kind of record. Russian signs up and 3 days later is dead in Ukraine. No training, just shipped straight to the front only to catch an artillery round.

The reason was even dumber.

Evgeniy decided to sign a contract and join the fight not for the sake of making money, but because of his broken marriage. “He wanted to prove to his ex-wife that he was like that... not afraid of anything,” explains his mother. “He thought he could win her back this way, he thought she would say: ‘Zhenya, don't go'. But she said: ‘I don't care either way’.”

He already had a job, so didn't need to go for the money. Just wanted to look like a manly man to try and impress someone who didn't care.

[Iphie]

This has to be some kind of record. Russian signs up and 3 days later is dead in Ukraine. No training, just shipped straight to the front only to catch an artillery round.

The reason was even dumber.

He already had a job, so didn't need to go for the money. Just wanted to look like a manly man to try and impress someone who didn't care.

His mother calling it a war "for her own sake" is telling, they know what's up and them being from Karelia shows why it's not the greatest idea to want that back.