1. #21821
    Void Lord Breccia's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gorsameth View Post
    Remember when talking about those numbers that some are killed, others are killed + wounded ect.
    The CIA said 15,000 dead and 45,000 wounded.

    Quote Originally Posted by Azadina View Post
    There's somewhat finite number of RuZZlamic terrorists in Ukraine, so yes, I do speak of them by absolute numbers. It's the one number ticking down to zero that matters.
    If you're waiting for the Russian troop number to tick down to zero, it makes the Russian lie about casualties even further off than it already is.

    Just to put a number on it, let's say Russia sent in 600,000 troops (the exact number isn't important, you'll see why) and let's say it's been five months. Let's also assume the death/wounded rate is the same in all three estimates, triple.

    According to the CIA, 60,000 Russians are dead or wounded. They've lost 10% of their force in five months. At that rate, the Russians will be dead/gone in 50 months total.

    According to Ukraine, 40000 Russians are dead and using the wounded ratio 120,000 are wounded. At that rate, the Russians will be dead/gone in 19 months.

    According to Russia, 1,300 Russians are dead and using the wounded ratio 3,900 are wounded. At that rate, the Russians will be dead/gone in 48 years.

    Now, who's closer?

    The Russian number is just a childishly bad lie. Ukraine is likely overestimating, but they're still closer, especially in the context you describe. That said, I believe the CIA number is the most realistic of the three and it lines up with most other estimates from, say, the UK. Four days ago, they put the total casualty count at 50,000 which is pretty close to the US's 60,000.

  2. #21822
    Jesus Christ guys, can you not argue over that pointless thing.

    Clearly they all count differently, some count missing as dead for example. It doesn't matter exactly. Point is they have lost a lot.

  3. #21823
    This has to be some kind of record. Russian signs up and 3 days later is dead in Ukraine. No training, just shipped straight to the front only to catch an artillery round.

    The reason was even dumber.
    Evgeniy decided to sign a contract and join the fight not for the sake of making money, but because of his broken marriage. “He wanted to prove to his ex-wife that he was like that... not afraid of anything,” explains his mother. “He thought he could win her back this way, he thought she would say: ‘Zhenya, don't go'. But she said: ‘I don't care either way’.”
    He already had a job, so didn't need to go for the money. Just wanted to look like a manly man to try and impress someone who didn't care.

  4. #21824
    The Lightbringer Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    This has to be some kind of record. Russian signs up and 3 days later is dead in Ukraine. No training, just shipped straight to the front only to catch an artillery round.

    The reason was even dumber.

    He already had a job, so didn't need to go for the money. Just wanted to look like a manly man to try and impress someone who didn't care.
    His mother calling it a war "for her own sake" is telling, they know what's up and them being from Karelia shows why it's not the greatest idea to want that back.

  5. #21825
    Quote Originally Posted by Corvus View Post
    This has to be some kind of record. Russian signs up and 3 days later is dead in Ukraine. No training, just shipped straight to the front only to catch an artillery round.

    The reason was even dumber.

    He already had a job, so didn't need to go for the money. Just wanted to look like a manly man to try and impress someone who didn't care.
    Well he was a reservist, so he has had some training at some point.

    But still, sending them straight to the grinder with no refreshing is telling.

  6. #21826
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    You are, of course, correct. There is no great choice. But I do think that out of those two NOT turning genocidal is the best, also because of you don't want the invader to point to your behaviour and say: "see?". (And believe me, I'm no friend of russia.)
    I'm not advocating genocide, but it's happening right now. The dilemma is between having the invader say "see?" and having the invader say "OK weakling, now I'm taking more." - which is exactly what happened in 2022 after Russia seeing the 2014's response. For you, giving in is superior, "not great not terrible", for me encouraging evil to do more evil is equally horrible to fighting evil with evil. Both have equal amount of evil.

    Here's a thought experiment to help you see the other side's problem: let's imagine that in 2014 Russia invaded Finland instead of Ukraine. Silly but not impossible, Finland wasn't in NATO in 2014. So, Finns fight and stop Russians after losing 50000 square kilometers of land, including the place where you personally live (to help you feel what I feel). Now, after ethnically cleansing the conquered part, Russians come in 2022 for more of the land that historically belongs to Russian Empire (like Ukraine), and someone says: "Helsinki is thoroughly russified after 8+ years, just like Viipuri earlier; oh well. Taking it back now is pointless, we can't turn genocidal on Russian settlers". What do you think Finns would think about that, would they view the morally superior choice as clearly "the best", or just as equally bad?
    Last edited by Cynep; 2022-07-22 at 07:17 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Nobleshield View Post
    It's not 2004. People have lives, jobs, families etc

  7. #21827
    The Lightbringer Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cynep View Post
    I'm not advocating genocide, but it's happening right now. The dilemma is between having the invader say "see?" and having the invader say "OK weakling, now I'm taking more." - which is exactly what happened in 2022 after Russia seeing the 2014's response. For you, giving in is superior, "not great not terrible", for me encouraging evil to do more evil is equally horrible to fighting evil with evil. Both have equal amount of evil.

    Here's a thought experiment to help you see the other side's problem: let's imagine that in 2014 Russia invaded Finland instead of Ukraine. Silly but not impossible, Finland wasn't in NATO in 2014. So, Finns fight and stop Russians after losing 50000 square kilometers of land, including the place where you personally live (to help you feel what I feel). Now, after ethnically cleansing the conquered part, Russians come in 2022 for more of the land that historically belongs to Russian Empire (like Ukraine), and someone says: "Helsinki is thoroughly russified after 8+ years, just like Viipuri earlier; oh well. Taking it back now is pointless, we can't turn genocidal on Russian settlers". What do you think Finns would think about that, would they view the morally superior choice as clearly "the best", or just as equally bad?
    I'm not Finnish so I do have a slightly more distant view on the matter, I did, however already live in Finland in 2014. The scenario you paint would certainly make any Finn's blood boil, so yes, they would defintely feel it was equally bad. But I'm not sure they'd go genocidal. (He said and he knows full well there are VERY reasonable Finns who have expressed some VERY unreasonable sentiments.)

    The problem, as you say, is that there is no good solution, other than a voluntary vacating of the area by the invader and sympathizers. (which we know is a tall order.)

    I cannot imagine how it is to live through this and I hope I'll never have to. So stay safe and out of sight.

  8. #21828
    We wouldn't exterminate anyone, but we sure as shit would deport every single one we could get our hands on.

  9. #21829
    Stood in the Fire Mazza's Avatar
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    Only hours after reaching a deal that allows wheat exports out of Odessa in an attempt to avoid massive famine Russia attacks the Odessa harbor with cruise missiles.

  10. #21830
    Over 9000! zealo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mazza View Post
    Only hours after reaching a deal that allows wheat exports out of Odessa in an attempt to avoid massive famine Russia attacks the Odessa harbor with cruise missiles.
    The fascists in charge of Russia are deliberately attempting to show the world that their words aren't worth the paper they're written on.

  11. #21831
    no point negotiating with nihilists

  12. #21832
    Quote Originally Posted by Mazza View Post
    Only hours after reaching a deal that allows wheat exports out of Odessa in an attempt to avoid massive famine Russia attacks the Odessa harbor with cruise missiles.
    Is anyone actually surprised at this?

    Seriously they have bombed refugee corridors in the past. It would have been more surprising if it hadn't happened.
    It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death

  13. #21833
    The Lightbringer Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mazza View Post
    Only hours after reaching a deal that allows wheat exports out of Odessa in an attempt to avoid massive famine Russia attacks the Odessa harbor with cruise missiles.
    Remember that it took several days for them to actually start moving after they announced the withdrawal from Kyiv, it takes time for orders to reach the frontlines and be verified. If they continue then action should be undertaken, but if it's an incident then it should be treated as such.

  14. #21834
    The Unstoppable Force Belize's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    Remember that it took several days for them to actually start moving after they announced the withdrawal from Kyiv, it takes time for orders to reach the frontlines and be verified. If they continue then action should be undertaken, but if it's an incident then it should be treated as such.
    Mobilizing a whole front and simply not pressing the "launch missile" button isn't really the same thing. This isn't 1945 where you have to drive a letter to your general.

  15. #21835
    The Lightbringer Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Belize View Post
    Mobilizing a whole front and simply not pressing the "launch missile" button isn't really the same thing.
    I agree, but the russian army isn't know for it's flexibility in the lower ranks, they do as they are told, when they are told, unless orders come to counter those. So even if there's an agreement then they still need to get the orders to the frontline.

    This isn't 1945 where you have to drive a letter to your general.
    I'd frankly not be surprised if the russians still worked like that...

  16. #21836
    Quote Originally Posted by Mazza View Post
    Only hours after reaching a deal that allows wheat exports out of Odessa in an attempt to avoid massive famine Russia attacks the Odessa harbor with cruise missiles.
    Like I said before: if you get backstabbed by russians, it was your fault for giving them the opportunity to do so.

  17. #21837
    Over 9000! zealo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Belize View Post
    Mobilizing a whole front and simply not pressing the "launch missile" button isn't really the same thing. This isn't 1945 where you have to drive a letter to your general.
    Given how close to the front Russian generals appears to have to be in order to get things to move along, it wouldn't surprise me if there is some sizeable delay in orders getting disseminated down through the ranks.

  18. #21838
    Russian ministry "We had nothing to do with the missile attack on Odessa port".

    Right, because there is totally another armed force attacking Ukraine right now.
    Your persistence of vision does not come without great sacrifice. Let go of the tangible mass of your mind, it is only an illusion. There is no escape.. For the soul burns on everlasting encapsulated within infinite time. A thousand year journey at the blink of an eye... Humanity is dust..

  19. #21839
    The Lightbringer Iphie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vakna View Post
    Russian ministry "We had nothing to do with the missile attack on Odessa port".

    Right, because there is totally another armed force attacking Ukraine right now.
    That's...implausible to say the least. Not even if we accept that Wagner is separate would it be believable.

    Somebody on another forum said it couldn't be them as no civilian casualties have been reported and I'm almost willing to accept that as a solid argument...
    Last edited by Iphie; 2022-07-23 at 04:55 PM.

  20. #21840
    Quote Originally Posted by Iphie View Post
    That's...implausible to say the least. Not even if we accept that Wagner is separate would it be believable.
    Because the argument goes that they're paying wagner to be there? They're still responsible for their mercenaries.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rudol Von Stroheim View Post
    I do not need to play the role of "holier than thou". I'm above that..

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