Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

5 House members (both Democrats and Republicans) will imminently introduce legislation to officially designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. This is leading to a showdown with Sec of State Blinken who says only he can apply the label, but if it passes both chambers then it will put pressure on Biden to sign it into law.

Early on, the Senate passed a non-binding resolution calling for Blinken to make the designation, though this bill goes further, and comes after Pelosi warned Blinken if he didn't do so then Congress would.

If Russia is designated a terrorist state then it would allow for secondary sanctions to be levelled against entities that do business with Russia. Like China.

Can't come soon enough. Russia is engaging in ISIS level of atrocities. Haven't seen it myself and really don't want to see it, but new video has come out in the last day of some pretty horrific stuff, of heads and hands of dead Ukrainians mounted on fences by Russian soldiers and the castration of a Ukrainian POW while he was bound and still alive with box cutters.

[Voidwielder]

The video of Ukrainian POW being castrated is just a tip of the iceberg.

Torture prisons, detention camps, loyalty checks, casual sadism and mass theft of property is widespread in the occupied territories.

Russian army is an army of impoverished degenerates.

[Kaleredar]

The video of Ukrainian POW being castrated is just a tip of the iceberg.

Torture prisons, detention camps, loyalty checks, casual sadism and mass theft of property is widespread in the occupied territories.

Russian army is an army of impoverished degenerates.

I mean, we've certainly seen the mass graves. Nobody is "shocked" by this. And nobody is believing any of Russia's claims that it's all "Ukrainian false flags" or "western propaganda."

I remember a certain shill who would skulk these forums claiming that all the Ukrainians in the occupied areas were all being treated well and were receiving "proper Russian aid," and that any claims of rape, war crimes, and genocide were to be ignored until "they could be verified" by... some nebulous, shifting goal post.

And that's really the most galling part about such claims, beyond Russian hopium about their economy being propped up as China opportunistically uses them like a low-rent gas station- the utter willingness to ignore the abject horrid Russian crimes perpetrated against the Ukrainians, to be justified by the fact that supposedly Russia is "dunking" on the west.

They're not, of course, but they like to pretend they are, and they use this hope as some sort of guiding locus that all other concerns can be ignored.

[Iphie]

5 House members (both Democrats and Republicans) will imminently introduce legislation to officially designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. This is leading to a showdown with Sec of State Blinken who says only he can apply the label, but if it passes both chambers then it will put pressure on Biden to sign it into law.

Early on, the Senate passed a non-binding resolution calling for Blinken to make the designation, though this bill goes further, and comes after Pelosi warned Blinken if he didn't do so then Congress would.

If Russia is designated a terrorist state then it would allow for secondary sanctions to be levelled against entities that do business with Russia. Like China.

Can't come soon enough. Russia is engaging in ISIS level of atrocities. Haven't seen it myself and really don't want to see it, but new video has come out in the last day of some pretty horrific stuff, of heads and hands of dead Ukrainians mounted on fences by Russian soldiers and the castration of a Ukrainian POW while he was bound and still alive with box cutters.

As noble as the intend might be I'm not sure this is the way to go. This isn't Iran we're dealing with. A breakdown of diplomacy is the last thing we could use.

Yeah, yeah, russophile, I hear ya, I'm just concerned that this will have far flung and unintended effects. For example, at least one EU country is still dealing relatively freely with russia, as is Turkey. Is the US going to apply sanctions selectively or uniformly? Because that opens up a whole other can of of worms.

The horrors and the terror are unforgivable and Russia should definitely pay for that, I'm just not convinced this the best way. (Even if I do acknowledge I don't exactly see another way)

Addendum: if it is put in law how and when will it be lifted? Because let's be honest this is primarily in response to the war. So would this be lifted as soon as russia withdraws? As soon as putin leaves as leader? Who can lift this? I mean if it's Blinken who applies the label then I assume he, or his successor, can lift it but if it's made into law then I don't think he could, without repealing the law or a new law right?

[Nymrohd]

I mean, we've certainly seen the mass graves. Nobody is "shocked" by this. And nobody is believing any of Russia's claims that it's all "Ukrainian false flags" or "western propaganda."

I remember a certain shill who would skulk these forums claiming that all the Ukrainians in the occupied areas were all being treated well and were receiving "proper Russian aid," and that any claims of rape, war crimes, and genocide were to be ignored until "they could be verified" by... some nebulous, shifting goal post.

And that's really the most galling part about such claims, beyond Russian hopium about their economy being propped up as China opportunistically uses them like a low-rent gas station- the utter willingness to ignore the abject horrid Russian crimes perpetrated against the Ukrainians, to be justified by the fact that supposedly Russia is "dunking" on the west.

They're not, of course, but they like to pretend they are, and they use this hope as some sort of guiding locus that all other concerns can be ignored.

I am sure I've read that Chinese exports to Russia have actually declined month to month. Most chinese corporations are not willing to test the US on this. One side is their most important client, the other is just a passing opportunity.

[Zaydin]

Reportedly multiple Russian outlets are saying representatives from Putin's United Russia party have left Kherson, saying they are no longer able to provide 'humanitarian aid.'

https://mobile.twitter.com/WhereisRu...60018754895872

Otherwise known as rats fleeing a sinking ship.

AKA with the bridge out of commission Russians are starting to flee the city.

So what do we think Russia will do to retaliate if/when they lose Kherson given it's among the only major gains that Russia made since this 'three day war' started? Losing it will be a huge blow to their pride.

- - - Updated - - -

I mean, we've certainly seen the mass graves. Nobody is "shocked" by this. And nobody is believing any of Russia's claims that it's all "Ukrainian false flags" or "western propaganda."

I remember a certain shill who would skulk these forums claiming that all the Ukrainians in the occupied areas were all being treated well and were receiving "proper Russian aid," and that any claims of rape, war crimes, and genocide were to be ignored until "they could be verified" by... some nebulous, shifting goal post.

Did Mr. "Fog of War" ever come back after the atrocities in Bucha came to light or has he stayed in hiding ever since then?

[Kaleredar]

AKA with the bridge out of commission Russians are starting to flee the city.

So what do we think Russia will do to retaliate if/when they lose Kherson given it's among the only major gains that Russia made since this 'three day war' started? Losing it will be a huge blow to their pride.

Probably froth at the mouth about how Ukraine's continued resistance to their invasion is an unacceptable affront and then, sadly, likely kill more innocent civilians with errantly-aimed weapons of war.

Did Mr. "Fog of War" ever come back after the atrocities in Bucha came to light or has he stayed in hiding ever since then?

I think he dipped for good.

But there are others who still persist, when their forum vacations expire, that is.

[Gabriel]

If I were a russian soldier there I'd probably start giving SERIOUS thought about surrender. Especially since representatives of that same party previously boasted about russia being there to stay. I also wonder how this will play out at home, as these representatives probably have a little bit of a different perspective, they will talk to friends and family.

I assume this can't be correct:

75000

Couldn't find anything else about it except a Finnish online newspaper.

So they've literally now lost more people in Ukraine that Finland did in the Winter War.

[Mihalik]

I assume this can't be correct:

75000

Couldn't find anything else about it except a Finnish online newspaper.

I think that number is realistic.

Note, it says killed or injured. Injured can be anything from some bruises to a lost limb. Anything that would take you off the front lines.

I expect most of those injured were rotated right back to front after a hospital stay and a few weeks rest.

Considering the severity of the fighting and it's scale, that's a realistic number.

- - - Updated - - -

So they've literally now lost more people in Ukraine that Finland did in the Winter War.

Killed or injured.

Current MI6, Bellingcat and UN estimates put Russian deaths somewhere in the 15000 range. Usually you have about 3 times as many injured (at minimum), so the 75k number is not out of the realm of possibility.

[Gabriel]

Killed or injured.

Yes I accounted for that.

[Corvus]

The 15K figure is probably a conservative estimate. The British have previously said 25K dead at one point.

It doesn't really fit with the 75K casualties figure either. If true, it means a 1:4 KIA to WIA ratio. A 1:3 ratio I believe is the accepted figure when you have good medical care and facilities, and Russia lacks those and has a general indifference to troop wellbeing on top of that. 25k dead and 50k wounded would be a better fit for the Russians. The Ukrainians are now saying that it is passed the 40k dead mark for Russia.

When you consider that one of the separatist groups has admitted to around 3K dead and another 12K wounded (so 15k casualties), you'd have to think the other separatist group would have taken similar losses. No way the Russians have taken only 40k casualties total, which would suggest that it does not include separatist losses.

[YUPPIE]

all this talk of tragic death and destruction laid at Putin's feet

and yet what people want is just for him to...give up and retire. No prosecution or anything else. Just admit defeat and go away.

[Saradain]

all this talk of tragic death and destruction laid at Putin's feet

and yet what people want is just for him to...give up and retire. No prosecution or anything else. Just admit defeat and go away.

What defeat? Russia's defeat for sure, why would he admit it in the first place, he needs to keep up a false story for his own political reasons.

And what comes to prosecution, good luck getting him out of Russia without force, a force that would easily be justified as existential threat and start the nuclear exchange you so much crave. Welcome to real life, sometimes there can be no justice.

[Voidwielder]

all this talk of tragic death and destruction laid at Putin's feet

and yet what people want is just for him to...give up and retire. No prosecution or anything else. Just admit defeat and go away.

What defeat? Kyiv is safe, as is the democratically elected Ukrainian government.

Have they lost land? Yes. But that is not strategic defeat.

Finland too lost some land, probably some of the best that it had - so what? The state endured, the nation endured and the Finns built a system which is the envy of the world while Russia, for all it's bluster about WW2, built a road to collapse and upheaval. The same will happen again, that nation can't help itself - Russian history is them finding one system which solves immediate short-term problems but that system is then conserved and supported for decades, long after it exhausted itself. And then collapse follows.

That nation will trip on it's own dick, again. And when that happens, I hope people in the world will see the wisdom of breaking that partially-collapsed empire for good.

[jonnysensible]

and yet what people want is just for him to...give up and retire.

people want him and his cronies on the wrong side of the ground, where are you getting this?

[Iphie]

I think that number is realistic.

Note, it says killed or injured. Injured can be anything from some bruises to a lost limb. Anything that would take you off the front lines.

I expect most of those injured were rotated right back to front after a hospital stay and a few weeks rest.

Considering the severity of the fighting and it's scale, that's a realistic number.

- - - Updated - - -



Killed or injured.

Current MI6, Bellingcat and UN estimates put Russian deaths somewhere in the 15000 range. Usually you have about 3 times as many injured (at minimum), so the 75k number is not out of the realm of possibility.

I stand corrected regarding the 75000, however Gabriel is right: russia's loses are higher than Finland's during the Winter War:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War?wprov=sfla1

Also, if you look at the ratio of Finnish loses Vs Soviet loses it's horrendous.

When you consider that one of the separatist groups has admitted to around 3K dead and another 12K wounded (so 15k casualties), you'd have to think the other separatist group would have taken similar losses. No way the Russians have taken only 40k casualties total, which would suggest that it does not include separatist losses.

Not necessarily, don't forget that the fighting in Luhansk has been of a whole different magnitude, most of it got overrun early on while Donetsk had Mariupol to fight over and still has large areas not under russian control. I wouldn't be totally surprised if Luhansk has significantly less casualties.

[zealo]

all this talk of tragic death and destruction laid at Putin's feet

and yet what people want is just for him to...give up and retire. No prosecution or anything else. Just admit defeat and go away.

People want Russia to fuck back off to their own side of the border, everything else is secondary to that, this isn’t complicated to understand, although I suppose it might be for you with what your posts on here looks like.

[Machismo]

all this talk of tragic death and destruction laid at Putin's feet

and yet what people want is just for him to...give up and retire. No prosecution or anything else. Just admit defeat and go away.

This is weird coming from you, considering how many times you have praised such type of behavior.

[YUPPIE]

People want Russia to fuck back off to their own side of the border.

they can still just do that and resume business as usual? It's weird Russia still has an out despite all they've done. Joe Biden himself said Putin should have an out.

[Machismo]

they can still just do that and resume business as usual?

You literally admitted to supporting them, and wanting them to be in power in the United States.