Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Corvus]

The other option is B&H, which has a sizeable Serbian population (complete with its own security forces) and who have been causing problems (but what else is new for Serbia.) Kosovo does seem the more likely target, but it has a small NATO force (around 2600 strong) acting as peacekeepers.

The most likely option of what is going on is that it is a desperate move to try and distract NATO away from Ukraine at the request of Putin. Except that it isn't going to work. Serbia isn't going to start anything and Russia can't really support them.

Less likely option is that Serbia may start something and get curbstomped by NATO. Russia will rant and rave, saying they need to mobilise to protect Serbia, but then throw Serbia under the bus and use the mobilisation in an effort to save their floundering Ukrainian invasion and go nowhere near NATO.

KFOR have come out and said that they are prepared to intervene if the Serbs start anything.

[Iphie]

The other option is B&H, which has a sizeable Serbian population (complete with its own security forces) and who have been causing problems (but what else is new for Serbia.) Kosovo does seem the more likely target, but it has a small NATO force (around 2600 strong) acting as peacekeepers.

The most likely option of what is going on is that it is a desperate move to try and distract NATO away from Ukraine at the request of Putin. Except that it isn't going to work. Serbia isn't going to start anything and Russia can't really support them.

Less likely option is that Serbia may start something and get curbstomped by NATO. Russia will rant and rave, saying they need to mobilise to protect Serbia, but then throw Serbia under the bus and use the mobilisation in an effort to save their floundering Ukrainian invasion and go nowhere near NATO.

KFOR have come out and said that they are prepared to intervene if the Serbs start anything.

I dunno, wouldn't it be MUCH easier to start shit in Transnistria? There's russians there already.

[Corvus]

I dunno, wouldn't it be MUCH easier to start shit in Transnistria? There's russians there already.

Starting anything there wouldn't amount to much. Russia only has a small number of troops there, around 1600, who can't be resupplied at the moment and are fairly poorly equipped. There is a local militia, but it is even worse off equipment wise. They could attack Moldavia's small army but that would hardly be a distraction and wouldn't involve NATO. Attacking into Ukraine would be near suicidal as well.

The Kosovo issue was over number plates, if you can believe it. The Kosovan authorities wanted to replace Serbian issued plates with their own, but the Serbs started a protest over it and put up barricades at the border. The Kosovans have delayed the implementation for 30 days so issue diffused for the moment. This kind of issue is hardly new and regularly happens.

[Jastall]

Starting anything there wouldn't amount to much. Russia only has a small number of troops there, around 1600, who can't be resupplied at the moment and are fairly poorly equipped. There is a local militia, but it is even worse off equipment wise. They could attack Moldavia's small army but that would hardly be a distraction and wouldn't involve NATO. Attacking into Ukraine would be near suicidal as well.

The Kosovo issue was over number plates, if you can believe it. The Kosovan authorities wanted to replace Serbian issued plates with their own, but the Serbs started a protest over it and put up barricades at the border. The Kosovans have delayed the implementation for 30 days so issue diffused for the moment. This kind of issue is hardly new and regularly happens.

Na man, you just don't get it. As our resident foreign policy megaexpert so wisely says, there's only one step from Serbian licence plates to nukes for everybody.

[Iphie]

Insert Ion cannon giving the Rebel transport covering fire gif

Let's see where this goes.

[Rustedsaint]

Insert Ion cannon giving the Rebel transport covering fire gif

Let's see where this goes.

5 internet cookies it’s gets blown up by “random insurgents”

[Dontrike]

5 internet cookies it’s gets blown up by “random insurgents”

*By Ukraine themselves (this is of course a joke)

[YUPPIE]

I'm pretty confused by the posts here on this page:

So Russia threatens nukes and talks the murderous game, but when faced with any actual potential conflict with NATO, they try to "distract" them or turn tail? Sounds cowardly.

[Saradain]

I'm pretty confused by the posts here on this page:

So Russia threatens nukes and talks the murderous game, but when faced with any actual potential conflict with NATO, they try to "distract" them or turn tail? Sounds cowardly.

Of course, Russia has no hope against NATO. But they still might have usable nukes despite of their age. If NATO goes to a war with Russia, Russia would cease to exist soon after. But any launched nuke also means colossal civilian casualties all over the world, assuming Russia would launch them towards major NATO players like USA and mainland Europe.

That's the point of deterrence, you can be utterly shit at waging war in traditional sense, but with nukes...you have one surefire way for a nation-ending retaliation.

That is why Russia is not going to use them, but given how eager they are in genociding everyone and everything, no nation is gonna risk it. Also why it is incredibly hard to bring a swift end to all this, because if you suggest NATO intervention, then starts the "WW3!!!!!!!!!" screaming, but sitting back, Ukraine is going to suffer long and hard even if it all ends in their defensive victory.

Ergo, Russia is a threat to all mankind and it should cease to exist as a singular nation, land divided back to the original peoples it forcibly absorbed. Or that's what I would see as a desirable outcome. Complete and total disarmament, to never become a military threat again.

[Gabriel]

I'm pretty confused by the posts here on this page:

So Russia threatens nukes and talks the murderous game, but when faced with any actual potential conflict with NATO, they try to "distract" them or turn tail? Sounds cowardly.

What is there to be confused about? russia can't use nukes because russia would cease to exist.

[YUPPIE]

What is there to be confused about?

that everything russia says or does contradicts their strong man image. they seem like massive pussies.

[Gabriel]

that everything russia says or does contradicts their strong man image. they seem like massive pussies.

Listen here, I will revealed some ancient and arcane knowledge to you. Are you ready?

Everything russia says is a lie. 100% of the time.

[Saradain]

that everything russia says or does contradicts their strong man image. they seem like massive pussies.

Because Russia simply needs to pretend to be powerful, they cannot keep a dictatorship strong and active otherwise. Don't forget Holodomor, the famine they artificially created in Ukraine long ago. They cannot fight a conventional war and succeed, all they have are terror tactics against the helpless.

3 day war. Capture Kyiv and parade on the streets. Ez gg.

I guess Russia's own corruption and the yes-men convincing Putin about their strenght ended their fake pretender might

[Dezerte]

As a side-note, you should always be wary of strongman-type of leadership. These people often have problems with insecurity. They tend to be overly aggressive, boastful and/or controlling as a result of their insecurity - bad qualities for a leader.

[YUPPIE]

on a meaningful note: doesn't this whole Ukraine affair illustrate that the US is also a paper tiger? Besides the strength boasting, it claims its intel and secret service capabilities are top of the world. But up until this war, it assumed Russia was a strong army. That's evidently not good intel.

[Saradain]

on a meaningful note: doesn't this whole Ukraine affair illustrate that the US is also a paper tiger? Besides the strength boasting, it claims its intel and secret service capabilities are top of the world. But up until this war, it assumed Russia was a strong army. That's evidently not good intel.

Perspective is skewed when the only wars Russia has had recently are against far weaker opponents. What comes to Ukraine is that Russia has disarmed Ukraine ever since collapse of USSR, and that is why now it seemed for a while that the invasion is going to be over fast.

Same for US, waging war across the ocean trying to occupy a vastly different land that is alien to US troops, with natives that are united under a single ideology, seeing themselves as the last line of defense of their way of life. Despite things like Taliban not really being a good goverment...Can't convince them to adopt a western lifestyle where people are supposed to be equal and everything is not controlled by religion. But that is off-topic, so I'll leave it at that...

In essence, no amount of intel can have ALL the information of your opponents strenghts and weaknesses.

US army is far more than capable of exterminating a hostile land's goverment, but long-standing occupation across great distance will never work. And in Russia's case, the said nukes are an effective deterrent despite of their utter failure of an army.

[YUPPIE]

So the US would intervene, but hypothetically, could Putin take on Japan just by itself?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has emphasized that waters around four Russian-held islands claimed by Japan are strategically important. He pledged to use all possible means to defend the area.

Putin signed an executive order approving a new Maritime Doctrine on Sunday, when a celebration was held in St. Petersburg to mark Russia's Navy Day.

Putin said in a speech that the doctrine clearly defines the boundaries and areas of Russia's national interests.

He added that vital strategic areas include the Black Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, and waters around the Kuril Islands. The president said Russia will protect those areas by all means.

What Russians call the Kuril Islands include four Russian-controlled islands that are claimed by Japan.

Japan calls the islands the Northern Territories. The Japanese government maintains the islands are an inherent part of Japan's territory. It says the islands were illegally occupied after World War Two.

The new doctrine divides the areas of Russia's interests in the world's oceans into three categories --"vitally important," "important" and "others." It categorizes the waters around the Northern Territories as "important."

The document also lists the main challenges and threats to Russia's national security, including territorial claims over its islands.

Other security threats mentioned in the doctrine include what it calls the US strategic policy to dominate the world's oceans, and the expansion of the NATO military infrastructure towards Russian borders.

The document says Russia may use mostly diplomatic or economic measures to defend its national interests in the areas it defines as "important," but may use military forces depending on the situation.

[Saradain]

So the US would intervene, but hypothetically, could Putin take on Japan just by itself?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has emphasized that waters around four Russian-held islands claimed by Japan are strategically important. He pledged to use all possible means to defend the area.

Putin signed an executive order approving a new Maritime Doctrine on Sunday, when a celebration was held in St. Petersburg to mark Russia's Navy Day.

Putin said in a speech that the doctrine clearly defines the boundaries and areas of Russia's national interests.

He added that vital strategic areas include the Black Sea, the Sea of Okhotsk, and waters around the Kuril Islands. The president said Russia will protect those areas by all means.

What Russians call the Kuril Islands include four Russian-controlled islands that are claimed by Japan.

Japan calls the islands the Northern Territories. The Japanese government maintains the islands are an inherent part of Japan's territory. It says the islands were illegally occupied after World War Two.

The new doctrine divides the areas of Russia's interests in the world's oceans into three categories --"vitally important," "important" and "others." It categorizes the waters around the Northern Territories as "important."

The document also lists the main challenges and threats to Russia's national security, including territorial claims over its islands.

Other security threats mentioned in the doctrine include what it calls the US strategic policy to dominate the world's oceans, and the expansion of the NATO military infrastructure towards Russian borders.

The document says Russia may use mostly diplomatic or economic measures to defend its national interests in the areas it defines as "important," but may use military forces depending on the situation.

https://www.mod.go.jp/en/j-us-allian...nts/index.html

If a nation plans to attack Japan, the attacker must be prepared to confront not only the defense capability of the Self-Defense Forces (SDF), but also the overwhelming military strength of the United States, due to the U.S. obligation to defend Japan in the event of an armed attack.

nope.jpg

I mean for your actual question - Russia can't take over Ukraine, what do you think would happen if a far more modern defense army of Japan would be beating the shit out of the orcs?

Also, Japan is an island. Russia's navy vs simple trolling to look elsewhere with drones and BOOM NEPTUNE is just laughworthy. Russia has no meaningful easy way to land an invasion to Japan, when they seem to rely on land forces mainly.

[Iphie]

Also, Japan is an island. Russia's navy vs simple trolling to look elsewhere with drones and BOOM NEPTUNE is just laughworthy. Russia has no meaningful easy way to land an invasion to Japan, when they seem to rely on land forces mainly.

I would also remind everyone of what happened the last time russia's fleet went to play with the Japanese fleet.

[Belize]

I would also remind everyone of what happened the last time russia's fleet went to play with the Japanese fleet.

It's amazing that 115 years after Tsushima Straight, Russia's military hasn't change one bit in its competency.