Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Skulltaker]

Sure, Jan.



Something something straw breaking the camel's back something something Putain's little Nuremberg redux making it abundantly clear that this isn't going to stop with 'separatist regions of Ukraine'.

Yes, sure, Francois. Like it or leave it.

[MCMLXXXII]

As hard fact as Saddam's WMDs

Russian backed militants fully responsible for MH17:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ys-2021-12-21/

Or is Reuters also biased?

[Levelfive]

Now that's what I was waiting for. And I think that's why Russia has been such a tease. Germany has been too coy on its statements.
Russia may be too committed at this point however. *flips coin*

My read on this is that Putin is pretty flustered by being outmaneuvered by Biden, and having miscalculated and backed himself into a corner, is using this as a face-saving measure. He knows the economic pain is coming so he may as well inflict some--he doesn't actually have to absorb Ukraine at this point; the important thing is that he flexed.

[Skulltaker]

Don't forget the GOP and their propaganda arm in Fox are still churning out pro-Putain bullshit as a function of having caught the Trump brainworms. See: Them taking more issue with "Biden being weak" than with Putain actually invading Ukraine, and immediately switching to "Biden's a warmonger" at the mention of sanctions.

Like, I'm just gonna say it: the Republican Party may as well be a Russian fifth column at this point. Which is so fucking ironic for the party of McCarthy.

It's just like the party of the wealthy will do whatever keeps them in power.

[jonnysensible]

My read on this is that Putin is pretty flustered by being outmaneuvered by Biden

wait when did this happen lol

[Azadina]

Putler seems to have underestimated the resolve of Europe in the face of his fascism.

No, he really didn't. Because Europes answer is in a language Russians don't understand. What would they understand? Force, or the implied threat of it. Say, for example, if Europe were to collectively equip 5 million troops along the Russian border for "military exercises".

[Pann]

Strong move by Germany!

[Skulltaker]

Or is Reuters also biased?

I don't think anyone sane doubts Russia provided the weapon, nor that it was done by the pro-Russian seperatists. I don't, for the record. I think what most people doubt is that the attack was sanctioned by Russia. What probably happened was that Russia supplied a paramilitary group with a piece of equipment they had no buisness of owning, they fucked up using it and hit the wrong target. Which still makes Russia responsible, to several degrees. If you say 'Russia did it', though, that kind of implies that you think the Kreml ordered that plane shot down. Which is probably hard to prove.

[Muzjhath]

No, he really didn't. Because Europes answer is in a language Russians don't understand. What would they understand? Force, or the implied threat of it. Say, for example, if Europe were to collectively equip 5 million troops along the Russian border for "military exercises".

We should.
Sweden and Finland also ought to join NATO, a squadron of Eurofighter Typhoons ought to me stationed at Gotland, and Bornholm ought to get some fancy land to sea missile options shipped in.

[Elegiac]

My read on this is that Putin is pretty flustered by being outmaneuvered by Biden, and having miscalculated and backed himself into a corner, is using this as a face-saving measure. He knows the economic pain is coming so he may as well inflict some--he doesn't actually have to absorb Ukraine at this point; the important thing is that he flexed.

Something else to consider that a lot of folks end up discounting because of the sheer number of Putinistas infesting every online space and the fact dissidence in Russia can result in a bad case of window poisoning or w/e - Putain and his fanclub are not representative of the attitudes of everyday Russians:

On Sunday, police brutally dispersed a group of demonstrators who came to Moscow’s Pushkin Square, the traditional site of dissident rallies since the Soviet era, to denounce Vladimir Putin’s presumptive attack on Ukraine. The protesters, who included veteran human rights leader and former member of parliament Lev Ponomarev, were detained as soon as they unfurled their banners; some were taken into police custody and charged with violating Moscow’s strict ban on public demonstrations imposed under the pretext of the pandemic. (Needless to say, the ban applies only to opposition rallies. When Putin addressed 80,000 people packed into a stadium to mark the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea, the authorities had no objections.)

The weekend protest was only the latest in the growing chorus of voices within Russia itself opposing Putin’s threats to Ukraine — a trend that has been underreported by international media, leaving many Westerners with the impression that everyone in Russia supports the war. This is certainly not the case. In recent days, the country’s leading cultural figures — who traditionally hold significant moral clout here — have spoken out against an attack on Ukraine. “Russia does not need a war with Ukraine or with the West,” read a statement signed by, among others, rock musician Andrei Makarevich and actress Liya Akhedzhakova. “Nobody is threatening us, nobody is attacking us. The policy that pushes for war is immoral, irresponsible and criminal.”

For all the difficulties of measuring public opinion in an authoritarian state — where all television networks are controlled by the government and where many people are understandably hesitant to share their political views with pollsters or other strangers — the available surveys point to the strong unpopularity of a military attack on Ukraine among Russian citizens at large. Most Russians neither favor sending troops to Ukraine nor buy into the Kremlin’s narrative of treating the West as an enemy.

[Levelfive]

wait when did this happen lol

Biden's pre-emptive broadcasting of Putin's moves and his refusal to take the bait completely upended Putin's standard plays of extortion and disinformation.

- - - Updated - - -

Something else to consider that a lot of folks end up discounting because of the sheer number of Putinistas infesting every online space and the fact dissidence in Russia can result in a bad case of window poisoning or w/e - Putain and his fanclub are not representative of the attitudes of everyday Russians:

Excellent point.

[Pann]

Biden's pre-emptive broadcasting of Putin's moves and his refusal to take the bait completely upended Putin's standard plays of extortion and disinformation.

What??? Putin has done exactly what he planned do.

[Elegiac]

What??? Putin has done exactly what he planned do.

He was planning to stage a false flag attack and then use it as the pretext for invasion on national security grounds, which the Biden administration (among others) blew open by broadcasting the Russian military buildup before such an attack could take place.

Hence why we're getting "peacekeeping" as the excuse, as well as Putain's unhinged ranting about every grievance he has with the West since 1945. As said, it's a face saving measure to justify the manpower and expense.

[jonnysensible]

Biden's pre-emptive broadcasting of Putin's moves and his refusal to take the bait completely upended Putin's standard plays of extortion and disinformation.

the real time intel posting was good, but its done fuck all to change anything. given that this has seemingly been planned since at least last year https://twitter.com/francska1/status...74850458226689

[Levelfive]

What??? Putin has done exactly what he planned do.

He *planned* to do it under a cloud of disinformation--what you're underscoring here is that Biden could not have altered this outcome; instead, Biden's response made it transparent to everyone that this is a war of Putin's choice, which makes it significantly easier to mount a unified worldwide response.

ETA Speaking of which: "Yesterday evening, Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán told the European Council President Charles Michel that Hungary will be “part of the joint EU position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict”.

It means that Hungary will not veto stronger EU sanctions against Russia."

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...TpR2ykV-NHu8MQ

Hungary.

[Elegiac]

He *planned* to do it under a cloud of disinformation--what you're underscoring here is that Biden could not have altered this outcome; instead, Biden's response made it transparent to everyone that this is a war of Putin's choice, which makes it significantly easier to mount a unified worldwide response.

Hyep. Avoiding another "Little Green Men" episode.

Which has worked, as you can see by the way even the usual suspects on this very forum can't weasel out of having to admit this is an act of aggression on Putain's part - all they can do is try to justify that aggression based on previously circulated misinformation, or good old fashioned Whataboutism. Hell, Putain can't even sell this horseshit to his own citizens.

[Levelfive]

He was planning to stage a false flag attack and then use it as the pretext for invasion on national security grounds, which the Biden administration (among others) blew open by broadcasting the Russian military buildup before such an attack could take place.

Hence why we're getting "peacekeeping" as the excuse, as well as Putain's unhinged ranting about every grievance he has with the West since 1945. As said, it's a face saving measure to justify the manpower and expense.

100%. The unhinged ranting and taping and then broadcasting that bizarre meeting where he wanted everyone on public record backing him is not coming from a position of confidence and strength.

[Corvus]

Biden released Russia playbook to the world and they followed it almost to the letter. If they released that much intel that was that accurate, it makes you wonder just how much else they have that they haven't released, and how they got it. Putin is probably wondering the same - and given how paranoid and vindictive he is, heads might roll may end up being more literal than figurative.

[Pann]

He *planned* to do it under a cloud of disinformation--what you're underscoring here is that Biden could not have altered this outcome; instead, Biden's response made it transparent to everyone that this is a war of Putin's choice, which makes it significantly easier to mount a unified worldwide response.

Nothing Biden, or anyone in the West, has done has changed Putin's plans. Russia puts out a lot of disinformation but this is for internal consumption and they do not care the West believes them or not as they have learnt in the past that the West will do nothing to stop them - hopefully this will now change.

[Elegiac]

Nothing Biden, or anyone in the West, has done has changed Putin's plans. Russia puts out a lot of disinformation but this is for internal consumption

Which isn't being believed internally, so...